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9/2-9/4 Red Sox @ Athletics Series Thread
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 3, 2016 7:14:38 GMT -5
Of course, the A's pitching may have had something to do with Shaw's awakening too.
Damn confounding effects.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 3, 2016 7:44:37 GMT -5
We'll see how they do against major league competition, but J Kelly and Scott looked good in very different ways. Kelly was sharp with his 98 mph fastball and had a really, really good curve. It's a nice two-pitch mix for a reliever. And Scott had some funkiness to his delivery that I could see working, especially against lefties. He looked like he hid the ball behind his body well, and he varied arm angle and even the landing spot for his right foot. He was only throwing 88, but guys were reacting like it was faster.
Oh, and O'Brien+Lyons is all but unlistenable.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 3, 2016 8:54:11 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 3, 2016 10:08:50 GMT -5
Can we just play the A's every game? They have outscored the A's 56-17 this year.
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Post by jmei on Sept 3, 2016 11:16:21 GMT -5
We'll see how they do against major league competition, but J Kelly and Scott looked good in very different ways. Kelly was sharp with his 98 mph fastball and had a really, really good curve. It's a nice two-pitch mix for a reliever. And Scott had some funkiness to his delivery that I could see working, especially against lefties. He looked like he hid the ball behind his body well, and he varied arm angle and even the landing spot for his right foot. He was only throwing 88, but guys were reacting like it was faster. Oh, and O'Brien+Lyons is all but unlistenable. The front office has asked Kelly to focus on his four-seamer in the minors (in lieu of his two-seamer), and PITCHf/x says he threw 9 four-seamers to 1 two-seamer last night. He's a different pitcher with that pitch mix-- fewer ground balls, but better control and more swing-and-miss. He has a real shot of working himself into the late innings mix.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2016 13:51:56 GMT -5
We'll see how they do against major league competition, but J Kelly and Scott looked good in very different ways. Kelly was sharp with his 98 mph fastball and had a really, really good curve. It's a nice two-pitch mix for a reliever. And Scott had some funkiness to his delivery that I could see working, especially against lefties. He looked like he hid the ball behind his body well, and he varied arm angle and even the landing spot for his right foot. He was only throwing 88, but guys were reacting like it was faster. Oh, and O'Brien+Lyons is all but unlistenable. The front office has asked Kelly to focus on his four-seamer in the minors (in lieu of his two-seamer), and PITCHf/x says he threw 9 four-seamers to 1 two-seamer last night. He's a different pitcher with that pitch mix-- fewer ground balls, but better control and more swing-and-miss. He has a real shot of working himself into the late innings mix. Even more importantly, I think: When FB% CB% '15, bad .709 .100 '15, good .587 .084 16, starts 1-3 .571 .100 '16, starts 4-6 .693 .109 Relief July .686 .118 2-Sep .588 .294
The thinking here is two-fold, I think. First, the FB is most effective when it's thrown the least. The 59% FB he threw in his excellent starting stint last year was the lowest percentage of any stretch in his career. They tried that again his first 3 starts this year, but when he got hammered they gave up on it. Which didn't make much sense, since the more logical conclusion was that he was just failing to execute everything ... which the next 3 starts demonstrated. Second, he's always had three other OK pitches in the curve, change, and slider. Now you pick one of those and throw it almost three times as often and see if, with repetition, it becomes a really good pitch. The change had been the only pitch getting above-average results (before this year), and they've abandoned that entirely (starting in July), so going to the curve -- which appears to be working well -- was not an obvious decision. Some good thought here, likely.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 3, 2016 16:22:46 GMT -5
1. Pedroia 2B 2. Bogaerts SS 3. Ortiz DH 4. Betts RF 5. Ramirez 1B 6. Leon C 7. Young LF 8. Moncada 3B 9. Bradley Jr. CF
RHP: Porcello
I wonder if there will be any chatter about giving Shaw some starts in LF vs RHP while Benintendi is out. I'm not sure the defensive decline would be worth playing him out there over Young/Holt, but if he's close to proficient out there, it's a nice way to get a bat with some good pop out there vs a righty every now and then.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2016 16:26:26 GMT -5
A's starter Howard Mengden is a changeup specialist with a reverse platoon split, so if they really plan to start Moncada tonight, it will be interesting to see who sits. Hanley is 8/15, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB in his last 4 games, so he's not sitting. (Even if these recency stats are not predictive, the players feel they are.) Shaw is actually 6/14, 3 2B, HR in his last 3 games. Papi had a rough homestand but after the off day, was 2/2, BB, last night.
I might use Shaw at 1B, DH Hanley, give Papi another day off, and use Chris Young in LF. But you could also see Shaw make his first pro start in LF. He's played there twice after pinch-hitting, once last year and once this year, each time for 3 innings. Given the pitching matchup, it's probably more important to keep guys comfortable and happy than to try to put the best possible lineup on the field for this one game.
Edit: And of course they announced the lineup as I wrote that. I'm assuming Shaw knew he was sitting tonight regardless of what he did yesterday. If so, I'm OK with that. Tomorrow's starter, Kendall Graveman, has made all of his improvements this year vs. RHP (mild split career, average this year, 14 vs. 74), so if Moncada earns another start, maybe you see Shaw in LF tomorrow afternoon.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 3, 2016 16:29:07 GMT -5
I'd feel much more comfortable with Shaw in LF at home than in Oakland. Of course I feel exactly the same way about Young, so that's not saying much.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Sept 3, 2016 16:51:39 GMT -5
... it will be interesting to see who sits. Hanley is 8/15, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB in his last 4 games, so he's not sitting. ( Even if these recency stats are not predictive, the players feel they are.) Shaw is actually 6/14, 3 2B, HR in his last 3 games. Papi had a rough homestand but after the off day, was 2/2, BB, last night ... What are you implying here?
If recency stats are in fact not predictive, what does the players' feeling on them matter? You seem to be suggesting a sort of placebo effect that might "fool" a player into continuing his hot streak. But if recency stats are not predictive, then the player won't continue his hot streak. Or at least not because he was on a hot streak.
So it would seem whether the player is fooled or not is moot. He'll perform how he'll perform.
Maybe you're suggesting something else, like the daily lineup construction should be influenced by a player's misconceptions? Keeping the "hot" player in the lineup, even without statistical benefit to the team, contributes to overall team harmony -- something like that?
I'd guess you're implying neither of those things. Please enlighten me, if you don't mind.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 3, 2016 17:09:48 GMT -5
From looking at Mookie's numbers this year it seems to me that with a little luck he could have had even better results. A BABIP of .321 and a BA of .319. I would project him to be even better defensively in Fenway's RF. Not saying he's going to put up numbers like this all the time but it would not be surprising to me to see him top them once or twice in his career. We could be looking at a HOF level player.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 3, 2016 17:33:02 GMT -5
Apparently Buchholz took batting practice today, which probably means that he'll be taking Wright's start against the Padres.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2016 17:54:18 GMT -5
Apparently Buchholz took batting practice today, which probably means that he'll be taking Wright's start against the Padres. Jen McCaffrey @jcmccaffrey 3h3 hours ago Price, Pomeranz, Buchholz taking BP ahead of SD series. Yesterday Farrell said there's a chance Wright misses next start. Seems that way.
Also for note, Koji did a mound session and Price had a glove and played second. My guess, activate Koji and slot him into the rotation, release Pedroia, move Moncada to second to keep Shaw happy and Price becomes the backup infielder guy. It's all becoming clear.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2016 17:59:37 GMT -5
... it will be interesting to see who sits. Hanley is 8/15, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB in his last 4 games, so he's not sitting. ( Even if these recency stats are not predictive, the players feel they are.) Shaw is actually 6/14, 3 2B, HR in his last 3 games. Papi had a rough homestand but after the off day, was 2/2, BB, last night ... What are you implying here?
If recency stats are in fact not predictive, what does the players' feeling on them matter? You seem to be suggesting a sort of placebo effect that might "fool" a player into continuing his hot streak. But if recency stats are not predictive, then the player won't continue his hot streak. Or at least not because he was on a hot streak.
So it would seem whether the player is fooled or not is moot. He'll perform how he'll perform.
Maybe you're suggesting something else, like the daily lineup construction should be influenced by a player's misconceptions? Keeping the "hot" player in the lineup, even without statistical benefit to the team, contributes to overall team harmony -- something like that?
I'd guess you're implying neither of those things. Please enlighten me, if you don't mind.
Something like the second, but much more specific. Sitting a red-hot player without warning or obvious rationale will make him unhappy. Maybe very unhappy. It may also make his teammates unhappy. Unhappy players will not perform well. In a perfect world, a manager has all the players on board with the statistical truth. One of the key managerial skills these days, in fact, is turning your players from old-school to new-school thinkers, something Clint Hurdle reportedly does well (after making the transition himself), as well as Joe Maddon. But as long as players believe old-school untruths, doing things the correct way has the potential to bother and confuse them. And that's not good. They are not random number generators; keeping in them in their comfort zones, content and undistracted, is important. The next big revolution in the game, I think, will be getting relievers to get on board psychologically with proper bullpen use. (Which of course is a counter-revolution.)
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 3, 2016 18:28:18 GMT -5
I saw on MLB network I believe Pete Abraham reported that Wright will miss his next start. Shoulder issue. Buch making start.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 3, 2016 19:31:08 GMT -5
Toronto trailing 7-1 in the bottom of the 7th.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 3, 2016 19:48:00 GMT -5
The A's have cooled off at the right time and so have the Padres.Ik the A's are bad but they have won series recently against good teams. Also a good time for the Rays to keep playing well.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 3, 2016 20:17:36 GMT -5
I appreciate the Rollie Fingers throwback look from the A's pitcher ...
whew, Mookie. 320/30/100 is pretty classic great season in the old-time stats.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Sept 3, 2016 20:26:46 GMT -5
First inning runs are sweet.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Sept 3, 2016 20:45:34 GMT -5
Toronto trailing 7-1 in the bottom of the 7th. Despite rallying for four 9th inning runs, the Blue Jays go down 7-5. Which means a 1st place tie is up for grabs.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 3, 2016 20:51:32 GMT -5
A couple of quick statistical tidbits:
Looking at the AL pitching leaders, the top 3 spots in ERA, wins, and strikeouts are inhabited by 9 different pitchers. I wonder how often that happens?
The AL batting title may not be settled yet. Peoria shows no signs of slowing down, but Altuve has slowed. There's still plenty of time for things to change.
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Post by southcoastsox on Sept 3, 2016 20:51:47 GMT -5
Hanley Ramirez is a bad man. And while I'm generally apathetic towards Steve Lyons I admit he makes me laugh sometimes, like when he was talking about the HR.
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Post by jmei on Sept 3, 2016 20:53:04 GMT -5
A Hanley hot streak is a thing to behold.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Sept 3, 2016 20:54:18 GMT -5
yup, I want this man DHing for us next season.
(Whether I'm speaking of Hanley Ramirez or Sandy Leon is up to the reader)
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 3, 2016 20:54:35 GMT -5
As long as the walls aren't too high, those ropes Ramirez crushes make their way out just fine.
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