25 man playoff roster

A little early, but some thoughts:

- If Benintendi is healthy and is able to get in plenty of games the second half of September while looking solid, he's unquestionably your starter in the playoffs vs RHP's. Young's a lock to start vs the LHPs. If Benintendi can't go, and this isn't on the roster, you're faced with Young or Holt. But Holt is a lock to be on the roster.

- I don't like the idea of Shaw or Moncada starting for us vs. any LHP's. When we figure out who we're playing, we'll know if we're facing any LHP SP's, and if we are, I unquestionably want Hill in that spot. Now from a bench perspective, Moncada offers you a speedy pinch-runner option, while Shaw is a decent power option to deploy vs a RHP. Hill simply offers you a less-than-great PH option vs. LHP, but you could also use Young in that spot.

- We'll see how much Vazquez players when he's called up in a few days. I'm tempted to go with Hanigan as the backup to Leon right now -- he's still fine defensively, has worked with the pitchers substantially more than Vazquez this season, and the offensive difference is pretty marginal (despite Vazquez hitter well lately in Pawtucket). I don't have a strong opinion, though.

- If they're healthy, Kimbrel/Koji/Ziegler/Ross are your four locks in the bullpen. Buchholz to me is useless as a reliever in the playoffs, so I'm not giving him a spot. Abad as strictly a LOOGY would be nice in theory -- if he only, and I mean only, faces lefties, I'll take him over any situation JF may be Buchholz into the game in. I'm excited to see what Kelly shows this month. Barnes will get a spot, but I'd be just as happy with Hembree in that spot. Neither have been effective at retiring LHH's, but Hembree has been awful at it. But he's been a lot better than Barnes vs. RHH's.

Super early playoff roster:

Catchers (2):
Leon
Hanigan

Infield (8):
Hanley
Pedroia
Moncada
Bogaerts
Ortiz
Hill
Holt
Shaw

OF (4):
Benintendi
Bradley
Betts
Young

Rotation (4):
Price
Porcello
Pomeranz
Wright

Bullpen (7):
Kimbrel
Ziegler
Uehara
Ross
Kelly
Abad
Hembree

Well, there are three things wrong there.

1) Christian Vazquz's WAR / 120 (including framing), vs. Ryan Hanigan's:

6.2, ---, 0.6
3.4, 1.7, -5.1

No planet on which Hanigan is the backup catcher.

2) Whichever starter is not in the rotation will be on the roster. Whether it's Wright, Rodriguez, or Pomeranz, that guy will actually be one of the best pitchers in the bullpen (and Pomeranz of course has experience there). He provides exquisite insurance against an early-game starter injury or one that requires a pitcher to miss just one start. And he's a devastating weapon to bring into an extra-inning game when both managers have already exhausted their pens trying to get a win in regulation. And finally, in a 7-game series he can go three or four innings in a game 4 if you used everyone in a game 3, giving you a rested pen for game 5 rather than a tired one.

Interlude) The bullpen locks barring injury are Kimbrel, Ziegler, and Ross. After that, there are two or three spots for RHR based on an end-of-year quality assessment, and an optional spot for a specialist.

Right now, a good guess for the quality RHR depth chart at season's end might be Uehara, Kelly, Barnes, Tazawa (always a chance for resurrection, which is why he's very much still in the mix as a longshot. Folks have forgotten how completely unhittable he was through late May). But it's just a guess, and I think that this is one thing that nobody knows right now, where the only reasonable opinion is "let's see another month of data." There was a long stretch of time, for instance, where Barnes was better than a healthy Uehara.

Depending on the opposing lineup, you might want to take only two of those RHR and have Abad on the roster. It depends on whether the opposing lineup features a string of LHB, or a stud LHH with a big platoon split (a la Ryan Howard in his prime) that you might need to retire in the 6th or 7th. Nobody knows this now, of course.

And depending on how you plan to use the odd-man-out SP, you might want Buchholz on the roster. That scenario is pretty much one where the 7th and 8th innings remains a problem and the plan is to have Pomeranz, E-Rod, or Wright help shore them up, so you won't have a 5th starter available as a long man. You need a guy in the pen who can go 4+ innings. And in that scenario, you don't have three of the RHR staking strong claims, so Buchholz over the 3rd best would be a comfortable choice anyway.

3) You will notice the absence of Hembree from the above. He's been pretty uniformly awful in high leverage (-0.95 wins of Clutch); he's sort of the anti-Ross. No way he sniffs the post-season roster unless dramatic unexpected things happen. Right now he's 14th on the depth chart for the 11 spots.

If Wright doesn't return, that finalizes the rotation, and Buchholz is likely to earn a spot as the 7th man in the pen. It would be what I outlined above, with Uehara, Kelly, Barnes, and Tazawa competing for 2 or 3 spots, depending on whether Abad would be more useful than whoever is 3rd best.

I can't see Clay being the 4th starter unless Wright doesn't come back, and Rodgriguez is either hurt/terrible this month

I've never gotten past, "This is great, but I don't believe in this," with Wright.  I believe in Buchholz.  Why?  Just because I have seen him do it.

It's hard to be precise with the roster at this point, but at the moment I guess it looks like this:

Starters: Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, E-Rod
Bullpen: Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler, Ross, Abad, Barnes, Buchholz (unless Kelly or Hembree do something remarkable or somebody gets hurt or Uehara isn't the same, I'd guess that would be the pen - doesn't look too good).

Lineup: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley, Leon, Benintendi, Moncada

Bench: Vazquez (over Hanigan and Holoday), Shaw, Hill, Holt, and Young

Farrell was on WEEI recently and said Pomeranz won't go to the bullpen.

The Indians are the very likely ALDS opponent if we win the division. Their lineup poses nasty problems for a team with big platoon splits in their bullpen.

They have three switch hitters with roughly neutral platoon splits in Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez. They platoon Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis in CF and Lonnie Chisenhall and Abraham Almonte in RF (even though Almonte is a switch-hitter who's somewhat better from the left side). The three RH hitters hit 4, 7, and 9 -- Napoli, Brandon Guyer, and C Roberto Perez. It's a lineup that renders Ziegler a lot less useful, except against the bottom of the order, perhaps.

The sole LHB, Kipnis, hits 2nd and has enough of a platoon split that you might use Abad against him.

An effective Koji, with his career reverse split, would be hugely important for an Indians series. You also should be rooting for Barnes (who must have fared well vs. LHP in his dominant stretch) or Tazawa (who has a reverse split over the last three years) to return to form. We have little idea what Kelly's platoon split will be like now that he's almost strictly a 4-seam / curve guy, but it's promising, as he has a mild career split despite his delivery. And Cody Allen has the same pitch mix and a reverse split (although he comes much more over the top).

True but I dont think the chances both Clay and ERod outpitch Pomeranz are very high. Especially Buchholz.

That looks right to me. Tazawa has looked a lot better lately, so my first thought is him as the last reliever. If the starter blows out, you could go with Pomeranz as your long man. I love Robby Scott all of a sudden, but it doesn't look like there's room for him.

It's too bad Moncada's not ready for the designated pinch runner role; Hernandez isn't really a weapon as a runner.

Well, I guess Pomeranz has taken care of his innings issue all by himself these past two starts. Now people are penciling him in the bullpen in the playoffs.

It would be nice if the Sox had a big enough lead, so that Pomeranz can get a few bullpen innings down the stretch. I'm not comfortable just putting him in the bullpen in the playoffs when he hasn't been in that role for a year.