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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 5, 2016 19:39:35 GMT -5
Think it's finally time for Xander to be moved down in the lineup.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 5, 2016 19:49:24 GMT -5
I know it won't be popular, but I like where the team is at pitching wise....so I am still very confident they will win the division. This is the best team in the league. They just can't seem to get the offense going when the pitching is good and vice versa. Been like that all year. You have to think (hope) that will even out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2016 20:00:54 GMT -5
Now I'm starting to wonder if this team will even make the playoffs. Their inability to win close games, get the timely hit (or even sac fly) when they need it, their inability to get the key out they need it, their absolute lack of "clutchness" which is a lot nicer than saying this team lacks heart or lacks balls.
They're absolutely great at running up the scoreboard, but that only makes you look great on the pythagorean numbers at this point, instead of the real life standings board. Yes, they are the most talented team in the division and probably the entire league. This team is absolutely good enough to win the pennant if not the Series (I'd take the Cubs as the team to beat.)
But I don't have any faith in or trust in this team. They have been nothing but a balls busting team since May and in a way kind of unenjoyable (and this team should be an absolute blast) because of their joyless predictability thus far in falling short.
I hope they turn this around soon and make my words look foolish. They're certainly good enough to. They are JUST good enough to lose. At this point, I'm not feeling it.
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Post by coachmac on Sept 5, 2016 20:06:30 GMT -5
They either walk Papi or pitch around him with 1st open. Left on Left matchup in the 8th. Ortiz probably gets a at bat in the 8th. You don't walk the go ahead run on base. You're flat out wrong. I know old school book says dont put the winning run on base but I don't think it's that clear cut. Do I pitch to Papi or pitch around to set up double play and pitch to the current edition of Xander.I believe the odds of getting out of the inning without the tying run scoring is better facing Xander.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2016 20:10:52 GMT -5
Well, K rates may not mean as much as they used to, but there are still times where K's kill you. And the Sox have had that problem in spades this season getting the guys in from 3rd. Runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. First the AL, then the Red Sox. The slash line here is BA with SF counted as AB - BA / OBP / SA / (SA with SF counted as AB) .266 - .312 / .342 / .476 (.407) .314 - .354 / .378 / .535 (.474) Now let's compare each line with the overall line in all base-outs situations (again counting SF as AB) +.009 / +.020 / +.004 +.030 / +.026 / +.010 So this "problem" consists of the best hitting team in MLB doing better than league average in the situation. BTW, I had no idea that this was true when I decided to check this assertion. What I did know is that no one just watching the games could judge it accurately.
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Post by tizzle on Sept 5, 2016 20:12:30 GMT -5
Left on Left matchup in the 8th. Ortiz probably gets a at bat in the 8th. You don't walk the go ahead run on base. You're flat out wrong. I know old school book says dont put the winning run on base but I don't think it's that clear cut. Do I pitch to Papi or pitch around to set up double play and pitch to the current edition of Xander.I believe the odds of getting out of the inning without the tying run scoring is better facing Xander. And then Betts. You're just wrong about this.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 5, 2016 20:15:14 GMT -5
Left on Left matchup in the 8th. Ortiz probably gets a at bat in the 8th. You don't walk the go ahead run on base. You're flat out wrong. I know old school book says dont put the winning run on base but I don't think it's that clear cut. Do I pitch to Papi or pitch around to set up double play and pitch to the current edition of Xander.I believe the odds of getting out of the inning without the tying run scoring is better facing Xander. The key thing is that Hand was a LHP. I think that it's real clear cut that you have to pitch to Ortiz with a LHP facing him. Tougher matchup for Ortiz. The Padres had a RHP warming for Xander, granted but if they do walk Ortiz, I'll still take the chance that Xander puts the ball in play and avoids the double play to end the inning and scores the tying run. Remember, the Sox didn't even need a hit. Even "this edition" of Xander can still make a out while producing runs. Farrell clearly botched this whole set of moves because he'd rather have a Sandy Leon who has a good short sample size against LHP and use it as a reason why he'd rather have Leon hit. You don't play matchups when you are down to your last outs, unless it's clear cut to do so. The Sox left their best hitter on the bench in the most crucial part of the game because of their bozo manager.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 5, 2016 22:08:00 GMT -5
Biggest concern is fixing Xander. It's body language, his expressions - he is lost, seems to have misplaced any confidence in hitting a baseball with authority right now. Tough to have a hole that high up in the lineup. JBJ hasn't gotten it all figured out yet either. With Mookie due for a bit of a cool down - it's just not a good time to be wasting all of this good starting pitching.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 5, 2016 23:20:27 GMT -5
Biggest concern is fixing Xander. It's body language, his expressions - he is lost, seems to have misplaced any confidence in hitting a baseball with authority right now. Tough to have a hole that high up in the lineup. JBJ hasn't gotten it all figured out yet either. With Mookie due for a bit of a cool down - it's just not a good time to be wasting all of this good starting pitching. When JBJ and Xander figure it out, Mookie will slump. Or one of them will get hot and Hanley will slump. This is baseball, not everything will click all at once. Xander will be fine, so will JBJ. No worries here.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 6, 2016 0:29:36 GMT -5
I know it won't be popular, but I like where the team is at pitching wise....so I am still very confident they will win the division. This is the best team in the league. They just can't seem to get the offense going when the pitching is good and vice versa. Been like that all year. You have to think (hope) that will even out. Same here. Kinda. I'm only worried if the other 2 scrubs shut this offense down, anything can happen in a single game.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 6, 2016 0:34:24 GMT -5
Absolutely Pathetic Bradley. Really miss this line of comments when JBJ does things right.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 6, 2016 5:50:32 GMT -5
Well, K rates may not mean as much as they used to, but there are still times where K's kill you. And the Sox have had that problem in spades this season getting the guys in from 3rd. Runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. First the AL, then the Red Sox. The slash line here is BA with SF counted as AB - BA / OBP / SA / (SA with SF counted as AB) .266 - .312 / .342 / .476 (.407) .314 - .354 / .378 / .535 (.474) Now let's compare each line with the overall line in all base-outs situations (again counting SF as AB) +.009 / +.020 / +.004 +.030 / +.026 / +.010 So this "problem" consists of the best hitting team in MLB doing better than league average in the situation. BTW, I had no idea that this was true when I decided to check this assertion. What I did know is that no one just watching the games could judge it accurately. Now the same stats are needed when the game is close, or even better, close and late. I realize the sample sizes shrink, but as a previous poster noted, the Sox have been great at running up the score this year. I'm sure that has a lot to do with the stats, because when the line is moving and runs pile on, of course guys are scoring from 3rd (and 2nd and 1st!!) with less than 2 out.
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Post by costpet on Sept 6, 2016 6:49:43 GMT -5
I really miss Don O. I'm getting to the point that I can't stand O'Brien. Everything seems forced with him.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 6, 2016 9:28:06 GMT -5
I think O'Brien was a big upgrade on Orsillo. Just need to get rid of Remy now.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 6, 2016 9:33:03 GMT -5
Price should be pushed back from Wednesdays start to start the 1st game in Toronto. Someone should be temporarily inserted into the rotation to start the last game in San Diego. It should be Price, Porcello & E. Rod in Toronto. I also think this move lines the Starting Pitchers up better for the remaining games this year.
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Post by huskies15 on Sept 6, 2016 9:51:33 GMT -5
Price should be pushed back from Wednesdays start to start the 1st game in Toronto. Someone should be temporarily inserted into the rotation to start the last game in San Diego. It should be Price, Porcello & E. Rod in Toronto. I also think this move lines the Starting Pitchers up better for the remaining games this year. They lack any good options to fill in though. Owens? Yuck. I agree that Price should pitch against Toronto and not the Padres, however. It's amazing how the Red Sox can't build up the wins against these last place teams.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 6, 2016 9:57:25 GMT -5
The call should go to Brian Johnson. He pitched last Thursday and would be starting with an extra day of rest.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 6, 2016 14:22:11 GMT -5
Ahem. What I said yesterday about Moncada's K rate and seeing significant PT, Speier has in a chart here. It's not that I believe Moncada won't be good or great, it's just that he's likely not ready for significant innings in such a tight playoff race. Looks like I'm not the only one of that opinion as Speier and Bradford appear to agree here. Of course, Carfado also agrees, so that's a plus for anyone who disagrees with this point, which seemed to be most of you on the game thread yesterday (and a minus for me as I usually give little credence to any of Cafardo's opinions). Anyway, to add fodder to the fire: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/newsletter/108-stitches-newsletter?s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 6, 2016 15:36:44 GMT -5
Ahem. What I said yesterday about Moncada's K rate and seeing significant PT, Speier has in a chart here. It's not that I believe Moncada won't be good or great, it's just that he's likely not ready for significant innings in such a tight playoff race. Looks like I'm not the only one of that opinion as Speier and Bradford appear to agree here. Of course, Carfado also agrees, so that's a plus for anyone who disagrees with this point, which seemed to be most of you on the game thread yesterday (and a minus for me as I usually give little credence to any of Cafardo's opinions). Anyway, to add fodder to the fire: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/newsletter/108-stitches-newsletter?s_campaign=108stitches:newsletterI've been sayig this since he was killing High A pitching. I have no idea why he was rushed this quickly.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 6, 2016 17:34:22 GMT -5
Here's the thing - just because he isn't a finished player, he's still a useful one. The only reason you would hesitate to turn to a young player who you believe is an upgrade is if you think it will hinder his ability to reach his long term potential. That's exactly where they are: Right now Moncada is flawed, but that doesn't make him not able to contribute. I feel so strongly about this that I'm even willing to throw down awkward double negatives like the previous sentence.
Anyway, even with a 30-35% K rate he does enough other things well to be an improvement against righties over Shaw, and I don't think it's going to hurt him next season and beyond to become the player he could be. I think he could probably use some time in Triple-A - if for no other reason than there always seem to be a few lefty veterans with mediocre stuff for him to get good looks at. But there's no Triple-A season right now. It's a choice between having him in the majors or letting him wait for the AFL. There are some players who I would prefer them to wait on in the same situation, but I think Moncada has the broad set of tools and the confidence to help them team and have the experience be a positive one.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Sept 6, 2016 17:43:01 GMT -5
Shaw is hitting .203/.277/.407/.684 since the All-Star Break while striking out ~28% of the time. Is that good enough for significant innings in a playoff race?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 6, 2016 17:57:01 GMT -5
Here's the thing - just because he isn't a finished player, he's still a useful one. The only reason you would hesitate to turn to a young player who you believe is an upgrade is if you think it will hinder his ability to reach his long term potential. That's exactly where they are: Right now Moncada is flawed, but that doesn't make him not able to contribute. I feel so strongly about this that I'm even willing to throw down awkward double negatives like the previous sentence. Anyway, even with a 30-35% K rate he does enough other things well to be an improvement against righties over Shaw, and I don't think it's going to hurt him next season and beyond to become the player he could be. I think he could probably use some time in Triple-A - if for no other reason than there always seem to be a few lefty veterans with mediocre stuff for him to get good looks at. But there's no Triple-A season right now. It's a choice between having him in the majors or letting him wait for the AFL. There are some players who I would prefer them to wait on in the same situation, but I think Moncada has the broad set of tools and the confidence to help them team and have the experience be a positive one. But aren't you risking his confidence by sending him out there as an unfinished product ? I don't think long term it would have an effect, but short term (the rest of the year) his confidence could get severly shot. There's no doubt he would be up anyway, as you say, he has a broad set of tools, but I think the leash should be pretty short here. Not only to help the team win it's remaining games, but so the kid won't be going home depressed every night striking out every third at-bat. Do we know if he has that kind of makeup?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 6, 2016 18:17:05 GMT -5
Shaw is hitting .203/.277/.407/.684 since the All-Star Break while striking out ~28% of the time. Is that good enough for significant innings in a playoff race? Likely better than a prospect with 45 AA games who is still struggling with pitch recognition and adjusting his approach at that level.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 6, 2016 20:57:52 GMT -5
Geez, this division is a rockfight this year. Luckily we didn't have a manager who personally lost 7 to 10 games through exceptionally poor decision making or we'd all be going nuts right now.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Sept 6, 2016 21:25:25 GMT -5
Hopefully, the MFY choke against the Sox like they're choking against the Jays tonight.
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