SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by bjb406 on Sept 10, 2016 0:47:07 GMT -5
I think the future DH is pretty obviously Hanley, unless they sign someone like Encarnacion as Ortiz has publicly suggested.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Sept 10, 2016 11:33:49 GMT -5
I think we have two concerns in terms of our farm and "trying to win now." One is that we don't have "enough" of a power lefty/or top of the order lefty bat on paper. Maybe we can get away with it, but it is weak. The best lefty bat we have right now is Beni and we have 5 righty bats which potentially all are superior to him for next year. And it is possible that even Young could be superior though that might not be right- but it is possible. As of right now JBJ doesn't look comfortable unless he s 6-9. And this year JBJ is getting wiped out vs lefties. We're top of the order rh heavy. Then bottom of the order lh heavy. How big of a concern is that? Don't teams ideally want to go r/l/r/l as much as possible?
The 2nd weak point ofc is the bullpen. I don't think this is as easy to fix as some believe if we don't get results from some of the guys we have going forward. In particular Barnes and Kelly. Some are counting on Smith but how much can we count on him next year? We don't have any other power arms if Barnes/Kelly don't produce. So we'll have to go out and trade/or buy. Interested to see what Kelly can show these next several weeks.
The state of our starters is strong provided Wright is okay, otherwise it is good if top 5 remain healthy most of the time. And I like Owens/Johnson as backups with their potential in minors. And our youth at position spots is terrific. Overall very strong state as long as Wright is healthy and Kelly/Barnes can produce next year. Then the big hole is one year or so waiting for a power/ and/or top tier lefty bat to develop which Moncada would be a year away (I expect he can play but top tier he might not be ready next year), and Devers a year or two after in terms of getting some "pretty good" production. And vs lefties Beni is more of an unknown but JBJ and Shaw are just awful vs lefties. Not just bad but awful. We have an awkward lineup and more than likely can't get in fixed with our current farm without making a trade/ or fa move. Maybe Panda will surprise?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2016 2:26:39 GMT -5
I think we have two concerns in terms of our farm and "trying to win now." One is that we don't have "enough" of a power lefty/or top of the order lefty bat on paper. Maybe we can get away with it, but it is weak. The best lefty bat we have right now is Beni and we have 5 righty bats which potentially all are superior to him for next year. And it is possible that even Young could be superior though that might not be right- but it is possible. As of right now JBJ doesn't look comfortable unless he s 6-9. And this year JBJ is getting wiped out vs lefties. We're top of the order rh heavy. Then bottom of the order lh heavy. How big of a concern is that? Don't teams ideally want to go r/l/r/l as much as possible? The 2nd weak point ofc is the bullpen. I don't think this is as easy to fix as some believe if we don't get results from some of the guys we have going forward. In particular Barnes and Kelly. Some are counting on Smith but how much can we count on him next year? We don't have any other power arms if Barnes/Kelly don't produce. So we'll have to go out and trade/or buy. Interested to see what Kelly can show these next several weeks. The state of our starters is strong provided Wright is okay, otherwise it is good if top 5 remain healthy most of the time. And I like Owens/Johnson as backups with their potential in minors. And our youth at position spots is terrific. Overall very strong state as long as Wright is healthy and Kelly/Barnes can produce next year. Then the big hole is one year or so waiting for a power/ and/or top tier lefty bat to develop which Moncada would be a year away (I expect he can play but top tier he might not be ready next year), and Devers a year or two after in terms of getting some "pretty good" production. And vs lefties Beni is more of an unknown but JBJ and Shaw are just awful vs lefties. Not just bad but awful. We have an awkward lineup and more than likely can't get in fixed with our current farm without making a trade/ or fa move. Maybe Panda will surprise? Bradley is .263 / .343 / .416 vs. LHP the last two years, which is hardly awful. Shaw is .275 / .295 / .497, which isn't awful either. And he'll probably be platooned, anyway. Both guys have actually been quite good at Fenway but have struggled on the road. There is a very good chance that Benintendi can hit second next year. And JBJ is perfectly good hitting 5 vs. RHP. You have solid balance whether you go Bogaerts-Betts or Betts-Ramirez 3-4.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Sept 11, 2016 11:17:53 GMT -5
I think we have two concerns in terms of our farm and "trying to win now." One is that we don't have "enough" of a power lefty/or top of the order lefty bat on paper. Maybe we can get away with it, but it is weak. The best lefty bat we have right now is Beni and we have 5 righty bats which potentially all are superior to him for next year. And it is possible that even Young could be superior though that might not be right- but it is possible. As of right now JBJ doesn't look comfortable unless he s 6-9. And this year JBJ is getting wiped out vs lefties. We're top of the order rh heavy. Then bottom of the order lh heavy. How big of a concern is that? Don't teams ideally want to go r/l/r/l as much as possible? The 2nd weak point ofc is the bullpen. I don't think this is as easy to fix as some believe if we don't get results from some of the guys we have going forward. In particular Barnes and Kelly. Some are counting on Smith but how much can we count on him next year? We don't have any other power arms if Barnes/Kelly don't produce. So we'll have to go out and trade/or buy. Interested to see what Kelly can show these next several weeks. The state of our starters is strong provided Wright is okay, otherwise it is good if top 5 remain healthy most of the time. And I like Owens/Johnson as backups with their potential in minors. And our youth at position spots is terrific. Overall very strong state as long as Wright is healthy and Kelly/Barnes can produce next year. Then the big hole is one year or so waiting for a power/ and/or top tier lefty bat to develop which Moncada would be a year away (I expect he can play but top tier he might not be ready next year), and Devers a year or two after in terms of getting some "pretty good" production. And vs lefties Beni is more of an unknown but JBJ and Shaw are just awful vs lefties. Not just bad but awful. We have an awkward lineup and more than likely can't get in fixed with our current farm without making a trade/ or fa move. Maybe Panda will surprise? Bradley is .263 / .343 / .416 vs. LHP the last two years, which is hardly awful. Shaw is .275 / .295 / .497, which isn't awful either. And he'll probably be platooned, anyway. Both guys have actually been quite good at Fenway but have struggled on the road. There is a very good chance that Benintendi can hit second next year. And JBJ is perfectly good hitting 5 vs. RHP. You have solid balance whether you go Bogaerts-Betts or Betts-Ramirez 3-4. The career numbers combined for Bradley may be .263 but two years ago he had 72 at bats and 2014 he was bad too. This year he has 139 at bats vs lefties. I think the 139 at bats is more real therefore I don't see him as a 5 because it would be too easy to be forced to take the bat out of the number 4 hitter hands after the 5th inning and you want to try to keep JBJ in as much as possible because of his incredible defense. SO I'd be forced to pinch hit for him in 6th/7th/8th while losing his value late if a tie or we go ahead. In an ideal world I agree he is a number 5 vs righties but I don't think in close games it would be beneficial because I think the 139 at bats is more real. By the way, with a lineup of Pedey/XB/Betts/Hanley which one of t0ehse players would you move to 6 behind Bradley? Hanley? XB? Or where would Beni/Moncada be?
As far as Shaw- I don't believe last year is relevant. We've heard many times once a player comes in from minors that either he has to figure it out (Moncada) or teams figure you out after a good start (XB in just the few playoff games and Shaw reg season) and then you have to learn to adjust. XB has figured it out pretty well. But Shaw - I don't think he has. Thus I don't think using 2015 data for him is as relevant as what he's showing this year that he handles left-handed pitching poorly.
Thus I believe those numbers you're referencing will inevitably go down the more at bats they get vs lefties as I believe the 2016 numbers are more indicative than the 2015 numbers.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2016 6:13:55 GMT -5
The new CBA may allow the Sox to go after Edwin Encarnacion without giving up a pick. I'm hoping the Sox make the ALCS so they don't have to worry about keeping the pick either way (low draft pick in the first round).
I want Edwin Encarnacion or Shohei Otani (if he's posted) in a Sox uniform next year.
If the Sox can't land either player, then I'd stand pat outside the bullpen.
I would trade Shaw for a bullpen piece and a catcher with minor league options (this is a position where the Sox are really lacking depth).
I would play Pablo for a half year and try to rebuild his value and hopefully he comes back in shape, then maybe explore trades if possible for more minor league depth or keep him if Moncada is struggling in the minors. I would play Moncada by June if he's showing he can play in AAA by then.
Trade Buchholz to also help with minor league depth (maybe a outfielder with options).
This is one of the few ways of reestablishing the lack of depth in the minors.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Sept 12, 2016 7:21:32 GMT -5
The new CBA may allow the Sox to go after Edwin Encarnacion without giving up a pick. I'm hoping the Sox make the ALCS so they don't have to worry about keeping the pick either way (low draft pick in the first round). I want Edwin Encarnacion or Shohei Otani (if he's posted) in a Sox uniform next year. If the Sox can't land either player, then I'd stand pat outside the bullpen. I would trade Shaw for a bullpen piece and a catcher with minor league options (this is a position where the Sox are really lacking depth). I would play Pablo for a half year and try to rebuild his value and hopefully he comes back in shape, then maybe explore trades if possible for more minor league depth or keep him if Moncada is struggling in the minors. I would play Moncada by June if he's showing he can play in AAA by then. Trade Buchholz to also help with minor league depth (maybe a outfielder with options). This is one of the few ways of reestablishing the lack of depth in the minors. Most of what you say here I wouldn't do (or don't think we can get) or at least it wouldn't be my top option other than maybe Otani but with him I'll take yours and others word for that one. It is fun to speculate.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2016 7:44:24 GMT -5
Let's keep this thread to the minor league system, not the major league roster. Plenty of time to discuss the major league team. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 12, 2016 10:06:52 GMT -5
To be fair, most of what Pedro & Jim were talking about was to beef up our thinning minor league depth &/or CBA changes on losing picks for signing FA (which I would consider on topic).
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Sept 12, 2016 15:12:22 GMT -5
The new CBA may allow the Sox to go after Edwin Encarnacion without giving up a pick. I'm hoping the Sox make the ALCS so they don't have to worry about keeping the pick either way (low draft pick in the first round). I want Edwin Encarnacion or Shohei Otani (if he's posted) in a Sox uniform next year. If the Sox can't land either player, then I'd stand pat outside the bullpen. I would trade Shaw for a bullpen piece and a catcher with minor league options (this is a position where the Sox are really lacking depth). I would play Pablo for a half year and try to rebuild his value and hopefully he comes back in shape, then maybe explore trades if possible for more minor league depth or keep him if Moncada is struggling in the minors. I would play Moncada by June if he's showing he can play in AAA by then. Trade Buchholz to also help with minor league depth (maybe a outfielder with options). This is one of the few ways of reestablishing the lack of depth in the minors. Minor league depth right now is a little low, because we have brought up so many young players that are producing in the bigs. The draft pick for ee certainly has an impact on the farm system. The other thing attached to this is the money aspect. How much do they want to spend with the young guy's contracts coming up. Catching depth , not sure I see this. Leon, cv, swihart, holaday, hanigan, romaniski, and butler. Lots of options. Not necessarily great quality in each but depth. 3rd base is a weak area, trading shaw with no proven/ reliable backup option only makes the hole bigger. Pablo has not done anything for 2 years. It will be interesting to see if Pablo is on the opening day roster next year. Probably will have to eat a lot of money. Moncada is a work in process. Is he mookie and adjusts well. Or is he xb and jbj and struggles for a couple of years before he hits his stride. It is still possible that they move moncada to the outfield to use his speed and arm. Clay's option is 13 mil not sure what you get back and how much money the sox will have to pay on the option. Next year, IMHO, will be key from two stand points. One, how well does this year's 2016 draft come along and add to the depth? Several young pitchers and Dalbec who is a 3rd baseman. Second, the need for another strong draft and not give up any choices. 2017 from what I have heard on this site and other places is stronger than last year's. The top 5 prospects right now are very strong with GREAT potential. 6-10 look good also. The sox have brought up 9 players who have played extensively in the bigs in the last 3 yrs. They have 5 more who have played and struggled with consist play to be able to stay this yr. But in all cases look very close. That's potentially half the roster in 3 yrs. That is certainly going to lower the depth in the minors. But is it not bad.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 12, 2016 20:36:06 GMT -5
I still think this team has a top 15 system in baseball, despite the depth and all the graduates on the major league roster.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2016 9:44:05 GMT -5
I still think this team has a top 15 system in baseball, despite the depth and all the graduates on the major league roster. We had the #4 system in MLB last year, according to BA. We traded Espinoza (and Light) but drafted Groome et al, including a major surprise in Dalbec. Each of our other 4 top prospects had their stock go up (despite Moncada's 9 straight K's), especially Benintendi and Kopech. Travis and Johnson had lost years due to injury, but we had more breakouts (Dubon, Ockimey, Raudes) than top-prospect disappointments (Marrero; even though he was ranked 15, I don't think Rijo qualifies, which is why i didn't mention him among the traded). And Heath Hembree was our only graduate, which is highly unusual. And I think Alex Speier forgot he was eligible, because he was unranked. 2013 - Iglesias, Workman, Wilson, Britton 2014 - Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Vazquez, Holt, Webster 2015 - Rodriguez, Wright, Leon, Shaw, Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Castillo, [Ranaudo]
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Sept 13, 2016 11:09:25 GMT -5
I still think this team has a top 15 system in baseball, despite the depth and all the graduates on the major league roster. There seem to be two questions being asked. One is, what is the strength of the system right now (or this offseason), if we are strictly defining prospects as those maintaining rookie eligibility into next year. The other question is what will the system look like after Benintendi and Moncada graduate next year. I think the answer to the first is that this is clearly a top 5 system this offseason based on the strength of our top 5. Also, although there is a considerable drop-off between 5 and 6, our depth into the 10-20 range compares fairly well to other top systems. Guys like Raudes, Ockimey, Longhi, and recent draftees like Dalbec, Shawaryn, and Chatham are solid prospects to have in that range. The answer to the second question is unknown, and as others suggested, may depend on if we have any breakouts at the time of Benintendi and Moncada's graduation next year.
|
|
|