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9/12-9/14 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2016 11:32:35 GMT -5
Crazy fact: the Sox have suffered 5 walk-off losses. One was on a 3-run bomb off of Matt Barnes by the immortal Max Kepler.
The other four were on walk-off errors. Hanley, Hanley, Hembree, and Holt.
How is that even possible?
Impact of errors on Win probability:
May 28, -.50 charged to Kimbrel.
July 28, -.72 charged to Ziegler (-1.0 if they can turn the 3-2-3 DP)
August 24, Hembree stuck himself with -.50.
September 4, -.07 charged to Kimbrel.
Nobody tracks defensive clutch, but it obviously can be huge.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 13, 2016 11:35:12 GMT -5
It looked like Shaw did barely nick his jersey. Probably not enough to see to overturn. Not sure if anyone noticed, but when the IF'ers line up to shake hands with the OF'ers after the game, I saw Marco Hernandez turn around to ask Shaw something, Shaw sheepishly shook his head to say "No". No way Shaw tagged him. Also, did anyone see a side view on Papi's home run. Looked as if Bragg had a shot to catch it but pulled up at the wall.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 13, 2016 11:43:23 GMT -5
Thanks for the detailed discussion on volatility, Eric
Now for an analysis of the fact that walk off errors are committed by guys whose name starts with "H"
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 13, 2016 11:48:02 GMT -5
it doesn't actually tell you anything. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The biggest mistaken assumption here is that there are managers who mismanage their bullpens year after year, which is what it would take to find the evidence you want. A manager who did that would get fired before he could significantly affect the data. JF has managed the bullpen fairly well the last few weeks. He was not nearly this bad in the past. A manager's handling of his bullpen is dependent on what he believes about that specific group of relievers, and different groups will match up differently to his thinking style. JF's main problem is that he is slow to change his mind. That makes him a bad manager when his bullpen is full of genuinely surprising and volatile performers, but a good one for for a bullpen that is consistent. A manger with the opposite mindset might have handled this bullpen much better, but might screw up a pen that was actually consistent by over-reacting to short-term and small sample variations in performance. This is fair enough, to a point. I tend to agree with the general consensus that JF isn't a good bullpen manager (I didn't think he was very good during the 2013 playoffs, which is when I judge managers' bullpen usage most directly), and I could see the general point that different managers may fit different teams better. BUT, you are showing the flaw in the core argument of Win Efficiency based on bullpen management, as well. If you have a team with volatile relief pitchers, you've got an extremely difficult bullpen to manage effectively and one that makes it nearly impossible to quantify the effective management of it. If relief pitchers are constantly surprising you, you've got nothing to go on, and this year has been filled with unreliable performers out there. Considering the constant vitriol against JF's bullpen usage, using contemporaneous criticism of his decisions as evidence against his decisions is a bit flawed. Hell, Francona used to get blasted for his bullpen usage, as well, and I think he's a gold standard of managers right now. But, overall, everything you described there could be chalked up to bad luck in a bullpen with very few dependable performers. Look, I'm not saying that Farrell was blameless (I personally think his treatment of Tazawa in the first couple of months could only be explained by some kind of personal hatred towards the guy). I'm not even arguing in favor of him in any way nor chalking it up to bad luck. I'm just saying that this is a set of data that's really, really noisy, way too noisy to base any kinds of conclusions on it, and bad luck is just as valid an explanation as yours. And it's certainly not rigorous enough to use Win Efficiency as evidence that Showalter has done a much better job than Farrell this year. Ascribing the difference to Showalter doing a better job this year is entirely speculative. May be true, may not be, but it's certainly not a stat.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 13, 2016 11:48:22 GMT -5
He sucks so bad that the O's have been 13.7 games better than us at turning their stats into wins. It's hard to say how much of that is the manager, but this is an absolute fact: if we had been as efficient as them, and they as us, we would be THIRTY GAMES IN FRONT OF THEM INSTEAD OF THREE.This is just not true. Our starting pitching and bullpen woes have occured in sequence and have been the biggest detriment to the team's success. To the extent Farrell has cost us games. and there isn't really a question, that is open for interpretation. There just is no way a manager can overcome the pitching difficulties that he has faced with his staff to the extent your claiming. The point is that there's ample evidence that a large portion of those woes is a product of Farrell's management. Over the course of his Sox tenure, the team has NEVER outperformed their run differential. Contrast with Texas or NYY this year (and NYY for the last three years, actually, as they've had winning records despite negative run differentials). Now, both of those teams have absolutely ludicrous records in 1-run games. Some of that is bullpen personnel, but just as much if not more is the effective usage of that personnel. Showalter and Maddon are both annoying as hell, but they're far better in-game managers. Now, maybe Farrell has some intangible, non-quantifiable qualities that are good for the team. 2013 happened, and there have been lots of positive developments this year (Porcello, Betts, Bogaerts, Hanley's turnaround both in production and attitude, Benintendi having a good debut, Young's revival, Wright (- the shoulder) reminiscent of that season. Who knows? They're coming together down the stretch, too. If they put it together, talent-wise they're unequaled in the AL, so it could be a Sox-Cubs WS. But regardless, Farrell clearly has substandard in-game management. If they win in spite of that, and the young guys develop, I can live with it.
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Post by p23w on Sept 13, 2016 12:53:55 GMT -5
Eric
I cited figures earlier that showed that our Win Efficiency was split pretty evenly between the hitters, the starting pitchers, and the bullpen. The inefficiency of the pitching staff can be very strongly tied to Farrell leaving starting pitchers in too long and to not correlating his relievers to situations (using better pitchers for higher leverage). Both of those truths can be demonstrated statistically and both are reflected in before the fact complaints in game threads.
The stuff about our pen versus the Orioles is so wrong it's laughable. Our bullpen ranks 8th in MLB in ERA-, just ahead of the Orioles. It is 8th in FIP- and the Orioles rank 12th. It ranks 12th in xFIP- and the Orioles rank 16th.
Moi, It's all about the bullpen, particularly the back half of it. Zach Britton is 41 for 41, with a 0.63 ERA. Brad Brach has 22 holds with an ERA of 1.78 (and 8 wins). Both have WHIP's under 1.0. In contrast Craig Kimbrell is 25 for 27, with a 2.78 ERA. Matt Barnes has 15 holds with an ERA of 4.26. Neither has a WHIP under 1.0. I clearly stated competency from the bullpen. If you choose to obfuscate my intended meaning with SABR babble, have at it if it brings you peace of mind. Trying to manipulate statistics to support your agenda is just so, so lame. Or in this case how would your analysis look if Showalter had Kimbrel and Barnes and Farrell had Britton and Brach.
But the Orioles rank 2nd in Win Probability Added. The Red Sox rank 19th.
Repeat. The Reds Sox bullpen ranks 8th in MLB at not allowing runs but 19th at helping the team win games. Gee, I wonder what might cause that?
(The starters rank 6th in ERA- but 11th in WPA. Which is to say, way too many runs given up in high leverage.)
Yadda, yadda, yadda....
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 13, 2016 12:59:46 GMT -5
How about the fact Farrell seemingly hasn't figured out Abad should exclusively be used against lefties? That is basic managing.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 13, 2016 13:06:01 GMT -5
How about the fact Farrell seemingly hasn't figured out Abad should exclusively be used against lefties? That is basic managing. You're expecting a lot at this point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 13, 2016 13:21:35 GMT -5
Now only if every game played from here on out could be a blowout - the Sox would be undefeated Better yet, if the Red Sox could face Wade Miley every day....I really, really don't miss that guy, and yeah I'd take an injured Carson Smith for Wade Miley any day. Miley is simply not a good pitcher. Looking at the rotation the rest of the way my hope is that the Sox are not tied or worse with Toronto going into that final series with the Jays. The Sox have E-Rod, Buchholz, and Price lined up to start. The first two games there would really worry me, but the hope is that the Sox don't need Price on the last day of the season. If they do and they wind up a wild card then I think Porcello would pitch that game. It would be his day. I think Pomeranz would get skipped over and probably start Game 1 or 2 of the ALDS game if they get that far.
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Post by jchang on Sept 13, 2016 14:07:06 GMT -5
It looked like Shaw did barely nick his jersey. Probably not enough to see to overturn. Not sure if anyone noticed, but when the IF'ers line up to shake hands with the OF'ers after the game, I saw Marco Hernandez turn around to ask Shaw something, Shaw sheepishly shook his head to say "No". No way Shaw tagged him. Also, did anyone see a side view on Papi's home run. Looked as if Bragg had a shot to catch it but pulled up at the wall. It could be the referee really had to go pee, in which, he's out!
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Sept 13, 2016 14:21:07 GMT -5
Right. Screw the 6 combined MOTY awards. I want the guy with a record just over .500 because he has a ring engraved "You're Welcome -Papi" I get questionable math that says the Red Sox would be 423423 games better with Showalter as a manager. But you really want to go with MANAGER OF THE YEAR to back your point? He still has that ring that Showalter and Maddon aren't ever getting. Might want to bite your tongue on that Maddon prediction
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2016 14:37:29 GMT -5
How about the fact Farrell seemingly hasn't figured out Abad should exclusively be used against lefties? That is basic managing. Actually, he's fine against RHB in low leverage. He's fine against LHB in low and medium leverage. He's useless in high leverage. The career numbers are really clear and dramatic.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,248
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Post by radiohix on Sept 13, 2016 15:49:52 GMT -5
Benny Baseball is back you guys!
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 13, 2016 16:03:44 GMT -5
Might want to bite your tongue on that Maddon prediction We'll see if it happens (it won't).
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 13, 2016 16:44:24 GMT -5
Would be pretty funny if we get home field vs the Cubs due to the ASG.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Sept 13, 2016 18:14:53 GMT -5
Thought for sure that was in the gap. Jackie is ridiculous
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 13, 2016 18:22:03 GMT -5
Lets go!!
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2016 18:23:10 GMT -5
Ugh. Lead-off double should always equal a run before the third out.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2016 18:34:05 GMT -5
Pomeranz not getting the low part of the zone that Bundy got last inning.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 13, 2016 18:36:08 GMT -5
Pomeranz not getting the low part of the zone that Bundy got last inning. Doesn't help that Hanigan makes everything look worse by stabbing at pitches.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2016 18:37:53 GMT -5
No idea why Hanigan is even in there when Leon had a day off only Satuday.
This is among the types of Farrell moves Eric alluded to earlier.
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bosox
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Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Sept 13, 2016 18:38:42 GMT -5
Pomeranz not getting the low part of the zone that Bundy got last inning. Doesn't help that Hanigan makes everything look worse by stabbing at pitches. But they have a winning record with Hanigan behind the plate.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Sept 13, 2016 18:39:52 GMT -5
Pomeranz up to 42 pitches through 1.1 innings is not looking promising.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2016 18:40:43 GMT -5
This could turn into a mirror version of last night (i.e. Big early lead, bit for Balt) unless Pomeranz settles down soon.
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Post by swooptech on Sept 13, 2016 18:41:07 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me what it is that Hannigan does well?
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