John Sickels' Top 20

www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/7/3848710/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2013

Sickels’ list is out, seems like a pretty good one for the Red Sox overall, and I think pretty thoughtful, as he is prone to be. A few thoughts:

1. I love the Kukuk nod at 20, I’m split between him and Margot for breakout player of the year in 2013 (If you can call Margot breakout after Mellen's trumpeting). I never understood why he hasn't received what I believe to be adequate attention since he had essentially the same scouting report as Owens after the draft. If he can get his off the field issues under control, which shouldn't be too hard (hopefully the DUI was a proper wake-up call for him) then he has a real shot at being a mid-rotation starter if not something more.

2. I like that Sickels is high on Cecchini, but if Cecchini is a B+ so is Webster, if anything I would switch the two, but it’s an interesting take.

3. I think Brian Johnson should have grabbed a B-. Call it homerism, but I’m hoping that switching to pitching full time coupled with what might be an uptick in velocity might lead his projection to be closer to that of a 3 starter, as opposed to just a ceiling.

Callis seems to be very bullish on the Red Sox. Even more than Sickels.

He's bullish on Workman, possibly as a starter. This is a big year for him, hitting the upper minors and turning 25, so I guess we'll see.

My impression of Workman in college with a chance to be a #3 during his peak years. He seemed to have the build and the stuff to merit a #4-5 and even though many here think he's ultimately a pen arm I'll stick with that.

As for Sickles saying Kukuk best case projects to a Jon Lester type, that was exactly what I heard from a college coach I know who scouted him. Same basic caveat as Sickles, though the coach thought Kukuk had to approach and frame to improve rapidly, barring any injuries.

Finally I still hold out hope for Britton who seemed to get his head into a better place as last year went on. Who knows with these guys - they are kind of like skittish thoroughbred race horses. But everything in there if he can just give into the joy of repetition.

"Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisba
No. 20 with a bullet. @kyle41987: Will Manuel Margot be ranked in the #RedSox top 20?"

Just among "others" in Sickels

As it should. These are the people watching our guys the most. Great to see what a powerhouse this site has become in the world of scouting. We're lucky. Not many other teams have a site like this for fans to reference.

I really like that second wave of potential as well. Interesting names from the Lowell/GCL/DSL rookie levels alone that I'll be following closely are:

Montas
Kukuk
Mercedes
Margot
Lin
Suarez
Flores
Heras
Rijo
Romero

Pretty interesting already, and we haven't even factored in 2013 draft picks.

The only issue I have with Sickels sometimes is that it seems like he sticks his neck out there for the sake of sticking his neck out there. He makes a TON of "sleeper picks" and yes, sometimes a couple of them pan out, but he whiffs on a bunch of them. For example, look at what he says about Cecchini: "Grade B+: Borderline B. I assume this grade may surprise people, but I'm thinking he will start to show more power to go with his OBP skills, speed, and greatly improved defense. I don't always play it safe with the grades."

Maybe this is just lost in having such a short writeup, but it seems like he has no particular reason to think that Cecchini will start to show more power, and he certainly hasn't seen him in person that I'm aware of. Yeah, if Cecchini were seen by more scouts as more certain to develop some power, I'd be just as bullish on him as Sickels is. This seems more like hedging a bet based on a gut instinct that isn't based on anything concrete. Not really a fan of that kind of thing - at least have some kind of scouting or statistical hook to hang that hunch on.

Maybe he looked at the 38 doubles in his first full season, and read somewhere that he has
"Excellent batspeed and hip rotation in swing mechanics. Upward swing path through hitting zone and creates solid extension to produce backspin when squaring offerings up. Shows ability to drive the ball to all fields with lift. Slightly above-average power potential."

Sickels just updated the list - anyone notice any changes?

There were a few fixes but nothing major. One of my favorites is still flying so far under the radar, he's going to need a backhoe to dig himself out. He's nowhere in site on any of these lists.

After his .283/.358/.505 line at Greenville as a 20-year old - including 48 XBHs in only 444 PAs - the Sox put Vasquez on a rocket sled to Salem and then Portland. While it was a bit of a rough ride, he made it to AA as at the age of 21. He's got serious defensive chops, and his plate discipline is very good as shown by his 10% BB rate which he's been hovering around at every stop in his minor league career. He does have a 20% K rate, but given that he has some power and patience that's not unexpected, and it's held steady as well.

Given the importance attached to a catcher's defensive and game-calling skills, I hope the guy gets some of the props he deserves at some point. I'm wondering if he doesn't have some Molina in his gene pool.