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Price/Porcello for Cy Young
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 13, 2016 12:21:31 GMT -5
A couple weeks ago I started to think that Rick Porcello was a real candidate for the Cy Young. But after yesterday I don't think David Price is out of the running. Porcello is pretty solid in all catigories and has the magic 20 wins. Price is really solid in all catigories except ERA. Will having 2 Sox up there hurt there chances? I think it's Sale, Kluber, Britton, and Porcello as the 4 front runners. But Price is closing the gap.
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Post by jchang on Sept 13, 2016 12:29:45 GMT -5
Porcello has a decent shot. Its a shame that Price is just barely outside the short list for cy young. Same as pedy being just outside the short list for mvp.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 13, 2016 12:34:36 GMT -5
It would take an insane finish for either to overtake Kluber IMO. Not gonna happen.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 13, 2016 12:55:15 GMT -5
So much can happen in 5 starts. It's hard to really improve ones stats( Unless string a couple SOs in a row), buts it's real easy to hurt ones chances with a couple clunkers. The voters still like 20 wins though. Always been a magic barrier. Sales jersey episode and the fact that they are out of the playoff will hurt him. I think enough voters will put the closer(Britton) lower on the ballet. Going to be down to the wire.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 13, 2016 13:55:05 GMT -5
It would take an insane finish for either to overtake Kluber IMO. Not gonna happen. Why do you think this? I don't see Kluber having any clear advantage on Porcello except K's. His ERA is a bit better, but not in a way that makes it that impressive. I know people get really into the advanced stats, but my guess is many or most voters are still looking at traditional stats. 20 wins is huge in that regard. Absent a truly dominant pitcher, I think Porcello has a great shot at CY. And by the way: at risk of causing an advanced stat/old school blow up, how is Kluber worth two more wins to his team than Porcello, when he has 4 fewer wins and 6 more losses? Kluber has more losses himself than the Red Sox have in games Porcello has started (they've only lost 7 times when he has started). One might say Kluber pitched "better" than a replacement level player in games he lost, and Porcello pitched "worse" in games he won, but that's sort of the difference between winning the World Series and losing but grousing you were the better team anyway. Or another one: how is Fulmer ahead of Porcello with 6 fewer starts? By WAR, you are trying to tell me Fulmer has had a better season than Porcello? I don't get that. Price is out because his ERA is too high when coupled with his W/L record (if he had Porcello's record and his league lead in innings and high K rate, I'd say he had a shot). Plus, the narrative of his season hurts him -- for a while, the story was that there is something wrong with him (not physically, but that he was disappointing). I don't think you can turn that narrative around to win the award.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 13, 2016 14:29:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't think Price is in the running for Cy Young, based on his start.
I think the Cy is still to be won and Kluber, Porcello and Britton as the top three (in some order), and Sale, Hamels, Happ, Price, Tanaka, Sanchez and Verlander filling out the rest of the top ten (in some order).
Fulmer will win AL ROY but won't be in the Cy discussion.
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 13, 2016 14:37:11 GMT -5
If Price goes 5-0 with 45 consecutive scoreless innings with the same k-rate he has a chance. End with a 3.12 ERA, 21 wins, 250.2 IP, 7 CG. Still probably not as good as Kluber, but he has a chance at least. 12
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dirtdog
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 13, 2016 15:06:12 GMT -5
Hasnt Price been pitching a fair amount of the season with foot problems? If so makes his performance more impressive.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 13, 2016 19:39:42 GMT -5
Price is not in the running IMO, but Porcello absolutely is. Although I could see him getting shafted unfairly so due to the perception that the Red Sox is a good offense/bad pitching kind of team. As it is, Kluber got this.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 14, 2016 7:33:53 GMT -5
As it stands now Price has no realistic chance at the Cy Young. Porcello will be hurt simply by the fact of him being Rick Porcello and he's been around so long and had a reputation. Fair or not - there will be an inherent bias against him for some which is just another obstacle for him to over come so him not being a clear cut favorite makes me think he's got no shot.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 14, 2016 8:05:28 GMT -5
As it stands now Price has no realistic chance at the Cy Young. Porcello will be hurt simply by the fact of him being Rick Porcello and he's been around so long and had a reputation. Fair or not - there will be an inherent bias against him for some which is just another obstacle for him to over come so him not being a clear cut favorite makes me think he's got no shot. Unlike, say, Jake Arrieta or Corey Kluber or Dallas Keuchel? Voters try to pick the best candidate. They may miss sometimes - you could make a good case for Kershaw over Arrieta in 2015, for example - but it's hard to argue based on recent results that voters are just choosing the guy they thought was best heading into the season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 14, 2016 8:17:13 GMT -5
I never said they did that. Not even close and Arrieta had an historic run.
The other two hadn't been around and built their reputations. I'd have to go back to look at the races to see what their competition even was but regardless of all that they don't fit the profile of Porcello. I'm not saying nor have I ever said no one would vote fit him because of his name - don't try and take it there.
In a close race where Porcello isn't leading in anything but wins everything counts.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 14, 2016 11:29:45 GMT -5
Does anyone think voters will hold it against Porcello that the Sox have averaged about 6 runs in his starts? I mean his record is the main thing that got his foot in the door for the conversation (because CY decisions are based on ancient basic statistics) but he's got so much run support all year, I wonder if he gets automatically discredited, despite the fact that he's put together quite a year all-around.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 14, 2016 11:44:28 GMT -5
The only reason the run support would hurt him would be if voters were going to grant outsized value to his W-L record in the first place. Like, if Kluber beats Porcello, it's not going to be because they disqualified Porcello based on having better run support but rather because they decided that Kluber's numbers were superior before reaching that point.
It's really Kluber's to lose. He leads the league in both ERA+ and FIP (and by extension, both bWAR and fWAR). He's going to end up north of 220 strikeouts. He's at 7.0 H/9, which is outstanding, and his .272 BABIP isn't remarkably lucky or anything.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 14, 2016 13:39:13 GMT -5
Porcello has more wins than Kluber, one more QS, and a lower WHIP. Kluber has a higher WAR and a slightly lower ERA. They are very close and right now either one could be picked fairly as the CY winner. However, I think Porcello's performance is slightly more impressive and it probably has had a bigger impact on the team's performance.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 15, 2016 16:08:21 GMT -5
As of today, Kluber v. Porcello:
Era: Kluber 3.05 (4th) Porcello 3.12 (5th)
WHIP Porcello 1.002 (1st) Kluber 1.037 (4th)
Walks per 9ip Porcello 1.29 (2nd) Kluber 2.32 (15th)
Ks per 9 Kluber 9.47 (5th) Porcello 7.45 (26)
K/BB Porcello 5.76 (1) Kluber 4.08 (10)
FIP Kluber 3.13 (1) Porcello 3.45 (6)
Ip Porcello 201.2 (2) Kluber 197.2 (5)
Adjusted ERA+ Kluber 156 (1) Porcello 146 (2)
Very interesting race. Porcello's numbers are actually better than I expected
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2016 17:38:30 GMT -5
As of today, Kluber v. Porcello: Era: Kluber 3.05 (4th) Porcello 3.12 (5th) WHIP Porcello 1.002 (1st) Kluber 1.037 (4th) Walks per 9ip Porcello 1.29 (2nd) Kluber 2.32 (15th) Ks per 9 Kluber 9.47 (5th) Porcello 7.45 (26) K/BB Porcello 5.76 (1) Kluber 4.08 (10) FIP Kluber 3.13 (1) Porcello 3.45 (6) Ip Porcello 201.2 (2) Kluber 197.2 (5) Adjusted ERA+ Kluber 156 (1) Porcello 146 (2) Very interesting race. Porcello's numbers are actually better than I expected These numbers suggest to me why Porcello should be well beyond Kluber -- and I am going t o get killed for being a primitive, but: FIP is a stupid statistic for measuring the past. That is, what your ERA should hypothetically have been doesn't much matter. It is what it is. If you want to use that to evaluate what you might anticipate from a player fine (we think he's been a bit unlucky, so we think he will be better if we sign him next year). But to say hey Kluber lost games he shouldn't have according to FIP or "adjusted ERA" or whatever... we might as well start having adjusted champions, too. Porcello has a significantly better record, and his team has a much better record in games he's pitched. I concede, in cases when a pitcher has benefited from a great team or been hurt by a bad team, other factors matter. This is not really that case -- the last case when this was clear was Felix Hernandez winning the CY over Sabathia (who finished 3rd, I think) though the latter won over 20 games. Felix was discernibly more dominant and truly victimized. When the peripheral stats are basically a push, then the guy with the much better record really should win. And as I wrote before: whatever Kluber's hypothetical WAR is, how much more could the Red Sox have benefited from a "replacement" for Porcello? They are 22-7 in games he's pitched. Anyway, pitchers' WAR is predicated on FIP, which is, again, a silly statistic.
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Post by m1keyboots on Sept 16, 2016 0:59:45 GMT -5
I feel like Porcello has been super consistent while Klubot has been a tad more dominant.
What's sad is, that the perception can be Kluber is better simply because of his stuff, and velocity. Porcello has been a model of consistent quality pitching. I think Price's recent run may hurt Rick's chances a little bit, as will Steven wrights early season run. It overshadows the way Rick has maneuvered his way through the AL East.
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Post by scarr0214 on Sept 16, 2016 1:49:07 GMT -5
There are two categories between Kluber and Porcelain that change the game for me. Porcello wins handily in WHIP and wins. Those two and ERA are the most important categories to me, and the ERA difference is negligible. I don't think Ks should even be involved in the conversation. Who cares how you get guys out as long as you get them out?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 16, 2016 1:54:25 GMT -5
As of today, Kluber v. Porcello: Era: Kluber 3.05 (4th) Porcello 3.12 (5th) WHIP Porcello 1.002 (1st) Kluber 1.037 (4th) Walks per 9ip Porcello 1.29 (2nd) Kluber 2.32 (15th) Ks per 9 Kluber 9.47 (5th) Porcello 7.45 (26) K/BB Porcello 5.76 (1) Kluber 4.08 (10) FIP Kluber 3.13 (1) Porcello 3.45 (6) Ip Porcello 201.2 (2) Kluber 197.2 (5) Adjusted ERA+ Kluber 156 (1) Porcello 146 (2) Very interesting race. Porcello's numbers are actually better than I expected These numbers suggest to me why Porcello should be well beyond Kluber -- and I am going t o get killed for being a primitive, but: FIP is a stupid statistic for measuring the past. That is, what your ERA should hypothetically have been doesn't much matter. It is what it is. If you want to use that to evaluate what you might anticipate from a player fine (we think he's been a bit unlucky, so we think he will be better if we sign him next year). But to say hey Kluber lost games he shouldn't have according to FIP or "adjusted ERA" or whatever... we might as well start having adjusted champions, too. Porcello has a significantly better record, and his team has a much better record in games he's pitched. I concede, in cases when a pitcher has benefited from a great team or been hurt by a bad team, other factors matter. This is not really that case -- the last case when this was clear was Felix Hernandez winning the CY over Sabathia (who finished 3rd, I think) though the latter won over 20 games. Felix was discernibly more dominant and truly victimized. When the peripheral stats are basically a push, then the guy with the much better record really should win. And as I wrote before: whatever Kluber's hypothetical WAR is, how much more could the Red Sox have benefited from a "replacement" for Porcello? They are 22-7 in games he's pitched. Anyway, pitchers' WAR is predicated on FIP, which is, again, a silly statistic. The thing I notice about WAR for pitchers is that it loves K's. That's why guys like Kluber, Sale and Verlander all have higher WARs. Another thing is Porcello has give up more hits and fewer walks than those guys. For me Porcello is front runner, all he needs to do is keep pitching great get a few more wins and its game over. With all these guys being so close, most wins should get him a CY Young.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2016 20:19:49 GMT -5
I've said this before, but Porcello is a joy to watch when he's on. Pumping strikes in, working fast ... he's got a Maddux line in today's game so far. A strong final push might make him a legitimate Cy Young candidate (as opposed to the slightly illegitimate one that he has been to date).
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Post by jchang on Sept 19, 2016 20:30:58 GMT -5
Porcello is legit cy. There is no substitute for wins
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Post by Guidas on Sept 19, 2016 20:37:55 GMT -5
Porcello is legit cy. There is no substitute for wins Quality troll. Well played.
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Post by bosox81 on Sept 19, 2016 20:39:09 GMT -5
I've said this before, but Porcello is a joy to watch when he's on. Pumping strikes in, working fast ... he's got a Maddux line in today's game so far. A strong final push might make him a legitimate Cy Young candidate (as opposed to the slightly illegitimate one that he has been to date). I'm not seeing why he's slightly illegitimate. He got the ERA, the WHIP, the wins, and all of that facing the toughest division.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2016 20:41:10 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP.
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