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Price/Porcello for Cy Young
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Post by bluechip on Sept 19, 2016 20:43:18 GMT -5
I've said this before, but Porcello is a joy to watch when he's on. Pumping strikes in, working fast ... he's got a Maddux line in today's game so far. A strong final push might make him a legitimate Cy Young candidate (as opposed to the slightly illegitimate one that he has been to date). I wouldn't say he has illegitimate this year. There has been no overwhelmingly dominant candidate this year.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 19, 2016 20:44:50 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP It's a lot more than that...and you know it. Your wearing your saber hat too much on this one. He's one of the top 3 pitchers in the league...by definition that makes it legitimate.
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Post by bosox81 on Sept 19, 2016 20:45:39 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP. All the other Cy contenders have low BABIPs as well. And like I said, you have to factor the fact that Porcello is doing this against tougher opponents. I'm pretty sure he'd have better K numbers if he was in the AL Central.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 19, 2016 20:47:03 GMT -5
Probably a 4? man race for the CY and it could potentially go to any of them
Sale Tanaka Kluber Porcello
I don't think they give it to a 13-win Tanaka on a team that misses the playoffs (just how the voters usually vote) Not sure they give it to Sale even though he may post the best #'s on a team under .500 when there are other choices
It probably comes down to Kluber and Porcello, and Porcello is close to finishing on an absolute tear to push his team to the playoffs with straight dominance
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 19, 2016 20:47:56 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP. Wins sure, but why having a low BABIP is bad for the guy's candidacy? These stats are great to predict future performance, but I don't get why we should make or break any awards. If a guy pitches 200 innings of 1.00 ERA ball, should I care about his BABIP when awarding for his current performance?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 19, 2016 20:56:20 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP. Why do you hate Rick Porcello with such fury?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2016 20:58:03 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP. That walk rate though. And awards don't really bother me. Even if Kluber's been slightly better this year (he has), lets not pretend not winning or winning the Cy Young degrades Porcello's season one bit. He's a monster, and a joy to watch.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2016 21:14:25 GMT -5
Porcello's 6.00 K/BB ratio is the 8th best in Red Sox history, and third best not by Pedro Martinez or Cy Young. It would rank behind only Saberhagen in 1999 and Schilling in 2006 - ahead of Schilling's awesome '04 and every single season Roger Clemens had with the Sox.
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Post by patford on Sept 19, 2016 21:39:31 GMT -5
Have some of us lost track of the stats? Porcello is, as of right now, the clear Cy Young winner. His ERA (3.08) is third in the AL in a very tightly packed group of four with only Tanaka (2.97) having an ERA under 3.00. And his win total (21) easily exceeds Corey Kluber (17) whose ERA (3.12) is slightly higher than Porcello's.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 19, 2016 21:50:57 GMT -5
I hope you won't need me to explain my skepticism of a Cy Young case built off of wins and a low BABIP. As of today, Kluber v. Porcello: Era: Kluber 3.05 (4th) Porcello 3.12 (5th) WHIP Porcello 1.002 (1st) Kluber 1.037 (4th) Walks per 9ip Porcello 1.29 (2nd) Kluber 2.32 (15th) Ks per 9 Kluber 9.47 (5th) Porcello 7.45 (26) K/BB Porcello 5.76 (1) Kluber 4.08 (10) FIP Kluber 3.13 (1) Porcello 3.45 (6) Ip Porcello 201.2 (2) Kluber 197.2 (5) Adjusted ERA+ Kluber 156 (1) Porcello 146 (2) Very interesting race. Porcello's numbers are actually better than I expected I'd say his case is more based upon an outstanding k to walk ratio and his command.
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Post by patford on Sept 19, 2016 22:08:51 GMT -5
Porcello's ERA is now 3.08. So he has passed Kluber and has far more wins. It's no contest at this point. It's close, but Porcello has a clear statistical edge. I think there are folks who have not looked in awhile who think Sale and Kluber have ERAs in the low 2.00 range. They don't. To me the Cy Young looks at: ERA, W, IP.
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Post by patford on Sept 19, 2016 22:29:08 GMT -5
Let's put it another way. If Porcello pitched for the Yankees and had the same stats he has today no one would even be talking about anyone other than Porcello winning the Cy Young.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2016 22:41:07 GMT -5
A few responses re: Porcello: - He's legitimately been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year. If you want to say that means that "he's in the conversation" for Cy Young, fine, but I don't think he's all that close to number one (that's Sale or Kluber).
- Even if you used ERA-based value statistics like bWAR or Fangraphs' RA9-WAR, Porcello comes behind Sale (and Kluber is only slightly behind in RA9-WAR while being way ahead in bWAR). Porcello has given up more unearned runs than expected, and he's pitched in front of a very good defense. Those things matter.
- WHIP overrates Porcello-- he gives up very few walks, which means he doesn't allow many baserunners, but when he does give up hits, he generally gives up harder contact than his Cy Young competitors.
- Similarly, he ranks well in K/BB because of a low denominator, but by K-BB% (which is a more accurate indicator of pitcher quality), he comes in ninth (behind both Sale and Kluber, among others).
The only real argument for Porcello is based off pitcher wins. As alluded to, that's not in the least convincing to me. Really, really good season. But not the best pitcher in the AL.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 19, 2016 22:42:13 GMT -5
It's Porcellos to lose after tonight. Kluber needs 3 wins for 20. It would take that and a Porcello stubble for Porcello not to win
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Post by soxjim on Sept 19, 2016 22:49:14 GMT -5
A strong final push might make him a legitimate Cy Young candidate (as opposed to the slightly illegitimate one that he has been to date). I'm not seeing why he's slightly illegitimate. He got the ERA, the WHIP, the wins, and all of that facing the toughest division. I agree. No doubt he is in serious consideration based on what you've said. Even Baseball Tonight - the two analysts were touting him as the leader for CY. It doesn''t mean they are right. But many of feel he is a serious contender. That's the point.
And what a job tonight. Porcello is and has been a monster.
__ And I want to also add I've been a JF basher- John Farrell handling the staff beautiful lately. The September callus plus Koji coming back has been a huge help for Sox. I still don't agree with some of the things he does- but I do agree with his aggressive handling of the bullpen lately.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 19, 2016 22:57:55 GMT -5
A few responses re: Porcello: - He's legitimately been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year. If you want to say that means that "he's in the conversation" for Cy Young, fine, but I don't think he's all that close to number one (that's Sale or Kluber).
- Even if you used ERA-based value statistics like bWAR or Fangraphs' RA9-WAR, Porcello comes behind Sale (and Kluber is only slightly behind in RA9-WAR while being way ahead in bWAR). Porcello has given up more unearned runs than expected, and he's pitched in front of a very good defense. Those things matter.
- WHIP overrates Porcello-- he gives up very few walks, which means he doesn't allow many baserunners, but when he does give up hits, he generally gives up harder contact than his Cy Young competitors.
- Similarly, he ranks well in K/BB because of a low denominator, but by K-BB% (which is a more accurate indicator of pitcher quality), he comes in ninth (behind both Sale and Kluber, among others).
The only real argument for Porcello is based off pitcher wins. As alluded to, that's not in the least convincing to me. Really, really good season. But not the best pitcher in the AL. I don't agree that if a pitcher pitches on a team with a great defense that it should be held against him for CY vs others. Unless you have any data that shows this to be a fact? IMO WHIP is no way overrated. The fact he doesn't allow many base runners through walks is a strength. It shouldn't be attempted to be minimized.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 19, 2016 22:58:15 GMT -5
I'm not seeing why he's slightly illegitimate. He got the ERA, the WHIP, the wins, and all of that facing the toughest division. I agree. No doubt he is in serious consideration based on what you've said. Even Baseball Tonight - the two analysts were touting him as the leader for CY. It doesn''t mean they are right. But many of feel he is a serious contender. That's the point.
And what a job tonight. Porcello is and has been a monster.
__ And I want to also add I've been a JF basher- John Farrell handling the staff beautiful lately. The September callus plus Koji coming back has been a huge help for Sox. I still don't agree with some of the things he does- but I do agree with his aggressive handling of the bullpen lately.
The Cy Toung dosnt go to necessarily the best pitcher, but the one that had the best season. History shows that voters like wins. 20 win seasons gets you votes.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 19, 2016 22:59:31 GMT -5
I'm not seeing why he's slightly illegitimate. He got the ERA, the WHIP, the wins, and all of that facing the toughest division. I agree. No doubt he is in serious consideration based on what you've said. Even Baseball Tonight - the two analysts were touting him as the leader for CY. It doesn''t mean they are right. But many of feel he is a serious contender. That's the point.
And what a job tonight. Porcello is and has been a monster.
__ And I want to also add I've been a JF basher- John Farrell handling the staff beautiful lately. The September callus plus Koji coming back has been a huge help for Sox. I still don't agree with some of the things he does- but I do agree with his aggressive handling of the bullpen lately.
The Cy Young dosnt go to necessarily the best pitcher, but the one that had the best season. History shows that voters like wins. 20 win seasons gets you votes.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 19, 2016 23:06:34 GMT -5
I agree. No doubt he is in serious consideration based on what you've said. Even Baseball Tonight - the two analysts were touting him as the leader for CY. It doesn''t mean they are right. But many of feel he is a serious contender. That's the point.
And what a job tonight. Porcello is and has been a monster.
__ And I want to also add I've been a JF basher- John Farrell handling the staff beautiful lately. The September callus plus Koji coming back has been a huge help for Sox. I still don't agree with some of the things he does- but I do agree with his aggressive handling of the bullpen lately.
The Cy Young dosnt go to necessarily the best pitcher, but the one that had the best season. History shows that voters like wins. 20 win seasons gets you votes. ...and I'd be surprised if garnering media time, in multiples down the stretch, like on BBTN, didn't in and of itself, tip voters...
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Post by patford on Sept 19, 2016 23:13:20 GMT -5
Porcello has the most wins by a comfortable margin and his ERA is so close to the best (2.97 v. 3.08) that it's a non factor. And he has leads the league in IP.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 19, 2016 23:14:22 GMT -5
A few responses re: Porcello: - He's legitimately been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year. If you want to say that means that "he's in the conversation" for Cy Young, fine, but I don't think he's all that close to number one (that's Sale or Kluber).
That's the thing, he is that close. There isn't a big gulf between any of them right now, this isn't Colon winning in 2005. Sale and Kluber have been slightly better and I'd personally vote for Kluber right now, but it's closer than you're implying. IMO he's paradoxically both closer to Cy Young than Mookie to the MVP as in who should actually win it, and further from it as in who will actually win it (Mookie has a bigger chance to steal it considering the Angels are awful and there's pretty much nobody else in the race).
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2016 23:26:38 GMT -5
Stop using wins. Seriously. The voters don't care about it, the players know it's a team stat, so stop it. Baseball would be better off if we'd never started tracking pitchers by wins.
Porcello leads the league in innings and K/BB ratio, with a comparable runs allowed rate to the other contenders. That's his case and it is a decent one.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 19, 2016 23:34:28 GMT -5
A few responses re: Porcello: - He's legitimately been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year. If you want to say that means that "he's in the conversation" for Cy Young, fine, but I don't think he's all that close to number one (that's Sale or Kluber).
- Even if you used ERA-based value statistics like bWAR or Fangraphs' RA9-WAR, Porcello comes behind Sale (and Kluber is only slightly behind in RA9-WAR while being way ahead in bWAR). Porcello has given up more unearned runs than expected, and he's pitched in front of a very good defense. Those things matter.
- WHIP overrates Porcello-- he gives up very few walks, which means he doesn't allow many baserunners, but when he does give up hits, he generally gives up harder contact than his Cy Young competitors.
- Similarly, he ranks well in K/BB because of a low denominator, but by K-BB% (which is a more accurate indicator of pitcher quality), he comes in ninth (behind both Sale and Kluber, among others).
The only real argument for Porcello is based off pitcher wins. As alluded to, that's not in the least convincing to me. Really, really good season. But not the best pitcher in the AL. He may not be the best pitcher in the AL on any given night, but he is having the best season of any pitcher in the league and he undoubtedly has had a greater positive impact on the performance of his team than any other. I think he wins the award and it won't be close.
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Post by kyla13 on Sept 19, 2016 23:43:21 GMT -5
Stop using wins. Seriously. The voters don't care about it, the players know it's a team stat, so stop it. Baseball would be better off if we'd never started tracking pitchers by wins. Porcello leads the league in innings and K/BB ratio, with a comparable runs allowed rate to the other contenders. That's his case and it is a decent one. "Wins" for starting pitchers is what "Saves" for relief pitchers and "RBIs" are for hitters. I wish these were never invented or came up with.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 20, 2016 0:01:00 GMT -5
Stop using wins. Seriously. The voters don't care about it, the players know it's a team stat, so stop it. Baseball would be better off if we'd never started tracking pitchers by wins. Porcello leads the league in innings and K/BB ratio, with a comparable runs allowed rate to the other contenders. That's his case and it is a decent one. "Wins" for starting pitchers is what "Saves" for relief pitchers and "RBIs" are for hitters. I wish these were never invented or came up with. I'm not saying wins is an important stat. I'm saying look at previous winners. Most have something in common. No different than the MVP award. A lot of the voters still go off of these counting stats.
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