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Offseason front office thread (10/16: Hazen to AZ)
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 17, 2016 4:55:48 GMT -5
What he said, if you read it instead if getting all bent out of shape, is that you would get less for Pomeranz and Kimbrel today than we gave up.
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Post by templeusox on Oct 17, 2016 6:09:47 GMT -5
Another one bites the dust. I can't believe Frank Wren's name is being floated. Ugh.
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Post by jamesmcgillstatue on Oct 17, 2016 7:23:37 GMT -5
I'll join the chorus of those who hope the next GM is from among their current group of young baseball ops execs - Sawdaye, O'Halloran, Romero - to keep some continuity in the organization.
A brain drain is inevitable (ask the Indians) but keeping it to a slow trickle is key.
EDIT: I'll add Quattlebaum's name to the GM mix. There are a quite a few guys there in their 30s who could be promoted as part of a chain reaction, too -- Banner, Crockett, etc.
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 17, 2016 7:25:46 GMT -5
Let's not panic here. The first thing that pop's up to me is WE DO NOT KNOW what this guy did? We know he had a GM title, but what influence on the running of the organization did he have? The Henry group in Boston is a lot different than the 2 organizations that Dave ran before. The tigers owner was/is old and wanted to win NOW. Prospects for proven players. The sox want to be competitive every year long term so they can sell seats and advertising. Henry looks at long term stability. Fla has a crazy owner with money concerns. The sox are very stable with no real money concerns. Dave has made some interesting trades. Like all people in this business some work out and some don't. The Kimbrel trade breaks down into 3 pieces. 1. would you rather have beni or margot playing left? Me I like beni.
2. Guerra was blocked and went down hill at A ball batting around 200. The other position player is not doing anything either.
3. Logan the pitcher could be interesting, but he is still in A ball and who knows?
The Drew trade is probably going to sort it's self out by 2018. Dp is a lefty power pitcher with major league experience. Showed signs of ability. AE is still muddling along in A ball. He is small and has not put on weight. Will he make it. Maybe he is the second coming of smoltz.
The point here is, Hazen leaving is not the end of the world. Dave is not necessarily the Grinch. This web site is heavily into metrics and Dave is not. He uses them but not too the level that eric and some of the others do. We all get way over emotional about the ability of our prospects. Dave's clubs have been competitive wherever he has been, playing the cards that he has been dealt by the owner. Let's see what he does under a, I am positive, watchful eye of Henry and company.
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Post by chud on Oct 17, 2016 8:26:27 GMT -5
I'll go further, let's not panic at all based on a couple of reasons:
1) DD is a very smart, extremely successful and incredibly well respected senior executive within the baseball community for a reason...sometimes I think we all think these types don't have basic understandings of team related items...although it makes for great debate, let's be honest, DD (and others) know way more than we ever well, that's why he's getting paid what he does and has been getting paid at that level for a long time...to think DD doesn't understand the dynamics of internal promotion vs. external promotion and the effects it will have is pretty crazy...sometimes trades/FA signings don't work out, but it doesn't always mean the prep/planning behind it doesn't make sense vs. the limited information available to all of us...and in this case, he certainly would understand the personnel dynamics of the next GM hire...
2) We've been down this road before and Wren didn't get the job for the same exact reason DD hired an internal candidate in Hazen (see #1)...he's not dumb and can easily understand who in the exec. staff has talent, and how that has a domino effect on the rest of the front office...There's a reason Wren didn't get the job before and won't get the job this time...
3) All it takes is one non-local guy (in this case Nightengale) to float Wren's name to cause panic...I believe he was the same guy who floated Wren's name last year...the guy's simply trying to make a connection from 50,000 feet...and will be wrong again
4) DD will also know that this “GM” job is not a true GM job and thus is a stepping stone for someone to be promoted to having total control of a MLB front office (ala the Hazen promotion to AZ…as it is a promotion)…it would make no sense to hire someone externally for what essentially is an Asst. GM+ job, where if they do a good job they’ll leave too if offered total control somewhere else vs. promoting someone from within the organization to keep some continuity…
5) They’ve known this was most likely going to happen if you believe Spiere’s article about them being contacted at the end of the season by AZ…and the potential ramifications it would have for Lovullo too…So as any good executive, he’s no doubt had behind the scene conversations about replacing both, and again no doubt has already compiled a very short list to replace both…I’ll be surprised if the Sox don’t have an internal GM in place by Friday or at least know who it will be by Friday just in case they have to satisfy meeting any mandatory commissioner’s office interviewing rules…
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2016 8:53:48 GMT -5
A whole lot less than they'd get if they traded that return now. How exactly is that true? Out of the 3 legit prospect traded in those deals, only Margot had a good year and it wasn't a great year because he has yet to show any power. Guerra tanked and his value is 1/10 of what it was when he was traded. AE went on to do even worse for the Padres than he did for use. I would love to know what reliever and starter you could trade those players for now that are so much better than Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Any increase in Margot value, is not even close to the value lost with Guerra. Espinoza will still be ranked among the top 5 pitchers in the minors this offseason. No, he's not Urias (yet), but the potential stuff is electric, and because it's about a lot more than the stat line you've put up in A-ball, he'll correctly continue to be highly regarded.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2016 8:56:34 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 17, 2016 10:38:41 GMT -5
let's hope Ownership and DD read the correct tea leaves and promote one of the young upcoming guys like Sawdye, Quattlebaum, or O'Halloran which might help stem some of the brain drain in the Red Sox system.Promoting Wren Amaro or some other "outsider" has the potential to open up the flood gates on Red Sox player development staff to other teams,
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 17, 2016 11:35:55 GMT -5
I don't see either Wren or Amaro that way. They're on the periphery of the organization in my opinion. Though they've both been GMs, the former calls in from Atlanta, the latter is a first base coach. Having the knowledge they bring, even with all the f**kups they've been responsible for, is valuable, as long as they're kept at arms length.
Hazen is probably ready for more responsibility than he had under Dombriwski. The others who've risen up through the FO ranks don't have quite that background. Choosing from their ranks seems the best way to give one of them their shot at sharing in the decision making.
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Post by notguilty on Oct 17, 2016 13:10:13 GMT -5
To me, Hazen's departure is (one of) the last nail in the coffin in a Red Sox front office philosophy on "building the next great Red Sox team" that started with Theo and ended abruptly (with some tough lows) with Cherington. It's a natural progression - by bringing in somebody like Dombrowski, the Red Sox ownership (and most of the fans/media) decided that they no longer had the stomach for building through the farm. Winning now, every year is the ultimate priority. This was a fundamental shift, one that will continue to reverberate throughout the organization for a bit - and soon enough, in my opinion, will bite this team in the behind.
My thinking on this, I admit, is biased. I've never really been a Dombrowski fan (I know, I know, the owner made him do it), and I'm scared ...less that he's going to leave the Red Sox in the same state as he left the Tigers - with no sustained playoff performance (let alone titles) to show for it. Sadly, not much of what he has done since he's been here has suggested otherwise to me.
These were some of the names in the Red Sox Front Office, 2007 - Theo Epstein (GM), Ben Cherington, Jed Hoyer, Craig Shipley, Jason McLeod, Allard Baird, Brian O'Halloran, Terry Francona
Today - Dave Dombrowski, Frank Wren, Allard Baird, Brian O'Halloran, John Farrell, Ruben Amaro (well, he's there...)
Let me go somewhere and cry.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2016 13:30:42 GMT -5
What he said, if you read it instead if getting all bent out of shape, is that you would get less for Pomeranz and Kimbrel today than we gave up. If that's his point, well yea they each have one less year of control. You would also get less for what we gave up.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2016 13:33:39 GMT -5
How exactly is that true? Out of the 3 legit prospect traded in those deals, only Margot had a good year and it wasn't a great year because he has yet to show any power. Guerra tanked and his value is 1/10 of what it was when he was traded. AE went on to do even worse for the Padres than he did for use. I would love to know what reliever and starter you could trade those players for now that are so much better than Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Any increase in Margot value, is not even close to the value lost with Guerra. Espinoza will still be ranked among the top 5 pitchers in the minors this offseason. No, he's not Urias (yet), but the potential stuff is electric, and because it's about a lot more than the stat line you've put up in A-ball, he'll correctly continue to be highly regarded. I get that, but you weren't disappointed in the season he had?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2016 14:07:22 GMT -5
Espinoza will still be ranked among the top 5 pitchers in the minors this offseason. No, he's not Urias (yet), but the potential stuff is electric, and because it's about a lot more than the stat line you've put up in A-ball, he'll correctly continue to be highly regarded. I get that, but you weren't disappointed in the season he had? I couldn't care less. It's not like he had a bad season. He struck out nearly a batter an inning at age 18 in full season ball. His BABIP was a little high at .353. I'm not going to worry about him because his ERA wasn't otherworldly or something.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 17, 2016 16:04:37 GMT -5
Turnover is good , but if Arizona and Toronto are gonna take turns picking off everyone that's a bit much to me. I don't think Wren is getting that job .Thats pure speculation because of the relationship.
Also I believe DD is pretty transparent and he said he feels except for the pen the team is set for continuity and they may explore keeping the DH job in house also. Just rebuilding the pen. I hope they keep whatever is left for high end talent because DH, 1b,3B are gonna need to be addressed within a couple of years. I am dying to see Moncada,Devers,Travis and maybe Okimey . Also I like that Dubon is adding to positions too. They have to keep Kopech and Groome.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 17, 2016 16:20:13 GMT -5
What he said, if you read it instead if getting all bent out of shape, is that you would get less for Pomeranz and Kimbrel today than we gave up. If that's his point, well yea they each have one less year of control. You would also get less for what we gave up. Kimbrel wasn't even worth his contract this year much less the prospects that were given up for him. I cannot believe people continue to defend that trade. It looked bad when it was made, it looks worse now, it probably won't get any better in the future.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2016 8:40:32 GMT -5
What he said, if you read it instead if getting all bent out of shape, is that you would get less for Pomeranz and Kimbrel today than we gave up. If that's his point, well yea they each have one less year of control. You would also get less for what we gave up. Even if they both magically had an extra year of control, they wouldn't approach the return they gave up for him. What is so hard to understand about this? Kimbrel is obviously on the decline as many expected and Pomeranz looks like he's a pitch away from TJS.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 18, 2016 14:41:26 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo Boston Analytics Dir. Tom Tippett the lastest to leave Bosox. Question around GM circles:would Amiel Sawdaye take the diminished Boston GM
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 18, 2016 14:59:09 GMT -5
Hmmm
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 18, 2016 15:54:01 GMT -5
I'm sure it's just a coincidence that the director of analytics leaves after one year working under Dombrowski.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 18, 2016 16:45:37 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 18, 2016 16:54:11 GMT -5
MikeSilvermanBB: Tippett: May stay in baseball & work for other team but "I'm also interested in other sports and opportunities outside the sports world."
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Post by greekgodofpancakes on Oct 18, 2016 16:57:58 GMT -5
This situation almost seems to beg for Kim Ng. External candidate that will get the Red Sox national accolades, but one where the Sox don't give up much control. I'm not saying its the right move, but it seems like the most Larry Lucchino-type move that could be made (I realize Larry is no longer in charge).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2016 17:51:04 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo Boston Analytics Dir. Tom Tippett the lastest to leave Bosox. Question around GM circles:would Amiel Sawdaye take the diminished Boston GM Not good. We're talking about some serious brain drain going on. This certainly qualifies. It makes me so sad to think what the Red Sox used to be or could have really been if not for interference from above. I wonder if John Henry and Tom Werner are noticing the teams in the post-season now, watching Tito outmaneuver everybody and watching Theo build a championship caliber team from the ground up. I can't help but wonder how far behind the curve the Red Sox have fallen. They're still staying afloat from Theo's 2011 draft and Cherington's moves that took time to pan out and the moves he didn't make (like trading some of the young core away). I just hope the Sox can find some good innovate young front office talent to fill the vacuum.
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 18, 2016 17:53:21 GMT -5
If he goes to another baseball team that pretty much says it all, I think.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 18, 2016 19:10:49 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal Sources: #RedSox senior VP of baseball operations Frank Wren unlikely to become GM. Happy in current position.
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