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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 20, 2017 8:05:56 GMT -5
Here's a great long term outlook question.
Isaah Thomas- is he a max contract player or not?
I'm really not sure if I give him a max contract deal in his next extension.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 20, 2017 12:49:26 GMT -5
Only players on rookie deals would still have those rights after being traded or if they are with team that drafted them. So no Celtics wouldn't be able to offer the same contract Kings could. Kings can give him 35% of cap for 5 years, Celtics could do what 4 years at 30% of cap or could they go 5 years? Not sure, but they can't give him the 35%. I'm sure anyone would take 5% less to get the heck out of Sacramento. I just don't know why he would stay there at this point. He's proven himself and he's getting a max deal regardless, he minus well try to win. Unless he doesn't care about winning and values the money more, in which case I wouldn't want him anyways. You would think that, if he cares about winning and not just money. That extra 5% is what like 6 million a year, but they add those raises in each year so it's like 40 million more total. Maybe a little more, I'm not sure what the raises are under the new CBA per year. The thing that makes no sense is do the Kings really think they can build even a solid playoff team around Cousins? They have to be the worst drafting team in NBA, all those lottery picks and yet they have no good young players. They have picked two centers the last two drafts and passed on a ton of players that could have helped them. If a team ever needed to make a trade to start over and rebuild it's the Kings.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 20, 2017 12:56:54 GMT -5
Here's a great long term outlook question. Isaah Thomas- is he a max contract player or not? I'm really not sure if I give him a max contract deal in his next extension. Without a doubt. He just keeps getting better and he's the engine that makes the Celtics go. Without Thomas we should just go back into rebuild mode. The question for me going forward is how much do you pay Bradley? How much do you pay Smart? How much do you pay KO?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 20, 2017 20:11:41 GMT -5
How much you pay any of these guys really depends on what would your cap situation be if you don't. The way the NBA works once you are out of cap room your out of cap room so going over when you can is basically not a big deal. In fact it can be helpful to make trades and match salaries.
That why this years free agency and turning those nets picks into players is so important. Once you use those up then the team you are left with is going to be harder to change.
All that being said I don't resign KO.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 20, 2017 21:12:03 GMT -5
I max IT but not without reservations. In the end, it comes down to off court reasons bc I have concerns about how his game will age.
But, trading him (I would assume they never let him just walk away) could have a negative impact on Boston becoming a destination for free agents. Getting rid of a star is not the message DA wants to send.
I am, however, thinking that a decline should be expected (mostly driven by decreased athleticism and/or injury) and prepared for. That may be why it's critical to have the next 2 Brooklyn picks so that they can add cheap but high-end talent to offset the big salaries that could be headed their way.
On KO, unless he's used in a trade, I qualify him and then let the league do the negotiating (his hold isn't huge). I know people don't live his game but advanced stats paint a prettier picture.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 21, 2017 9:17:53 GMT -5
I agree with you on the KO advanced stats and I think he fits Brads system (which scared me actually more than it excites me), but I worry that KO long run hurts more than he helps even if advanced stats say he adds value. I think he's the odd situation where he may help the team during the low effort grind of the regular season where his spacing outweighs his softness and lack of rebounding. Yet in the playoffs during a series where teams can game plan and effort gets higher and space is cut down then he becomes a big negative. Also he takes a rotation spot from a guy who could rebound and protect the rim.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 21, 2017 11:49:49 GMT -5
I agree with that. That's why I wait and see what the market dictates. If you had another rim protector in the rotation, that would help.
For example, say we traded for Noel (only bc he's an easy/common name used). Having a 3 man rotaton among your bigs such that you have a rim protector (Noel) a floor spacer (KO) and one that can do (to an extent) both (Horford) would work nicely.
Of course, that's where the finances play in (on both KO and Noel). How much do you pay for one dimensional players?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 21, 2017 12:41:10 GMT -5
Right now if I had to make a decision on Smart or KO, I'm picking KO. He's a specialist, so he's not going to look great against every team. In today's NBA you need players like him. He's also not bad defensively, which at this point can't be debated. We have a bunch of data, it's not just a one season fluke. As to teams game planning against him. Wow I will take that everyday. He's a bench player, that plays like 20 mins a night. Not many teams have players that can guard him on the outside on D and then take advantage on him in the post. If they do you don't play him as much, like I said he's a specialist. He's not a starter.
The question is really what do you pay these guys. I know how the cap system works, but it doesn't make sense to overpay guys just to keep them. Your not going to have tradable assets if these guys are way overpayed. Our owner also isn't going to want to pay a huge tax bill unless we are title contenders.
As to free agency, we will have a very hard time getting max level money this offseason. You would have to renounce all holds on players like KO. You wouldn't be able to afford our top pick or our players stashed overseas. You'd most likely have to start trading players like Smart and/or Bradley to get the cap space needed to sign players and the draft picks.
Sure if we could get a Durant you do that all day long. Basically what I'm saying is that I have no problem taking on salary in a trade at this year's deadline. The best free agent I can see changing teams is Millsap and he's not worth paying max money and getting rid of KO along with Bradley and/or Smart. With the new CBA I'm just not sure why everyone wants to make sure we keep cap space, when we could make a trade that could really help us this year and most likely get us a better player than we will get as a free agent next year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 21, 2017 12:56:30 GMT -5
Thomas the choice is really is he 30% or do you give him 35%. That's like 31 million a year to like 36-37 million a year.
Bradley is going to be in that 15-20 million a year bracket.
KO is going to be around 10 million a year, maybe a little more
Smart is going to be around 10 million a year, maybe more if he can finally break out.
You could be looking at over 300 million to resign these guys. I know that sounds crazy, but that's what NBA free agency has become.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 22, 2017 8:06:35 GMT -5
Here's a great long term outlook question. Isaah Thomas- is he a max contract player or not? I'm really not sure if I give him a max contract deal in his next extension. IT has definitely established himself as a max contract player this year. That's just the way things are in the NBA these days. He along with all the other expiring contracts is what is going to make Dannys job that much more difficult. One option is to keep them all with there expiring contracts next year and really go for it with another signing, knowing that cap hell is right around the corner. Of course the other side of the sword is that you lose AB or IT in FA and get nothing back in return. Decisions, decisions, at least Danny has the assets to have the options. These last 2 losses have me wondering just how close they are to being really good or how valuable AB is in the lineup. For all IT's offensive ability his D has me questioning whether or not giving him the max deal is the right move long term. Just looking at his +/- gives me pause. Which is why I have always viewed him as a Vinnie Johnson type of 6th player.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 22, 2017 9:04:00 GMT -5
The Celtics really need to upgrade from Amir Johnson. What about Tyson Chandler from the Suns? Wouldn't cost much and would allow Horford to play at the 4. Or maybe if the Magic see they're going nowhere and decide to trade Serge Ibaka, that would be nice as well. Either or both of them would be awesome.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 22, 2017 9:10:35 GMT -5
The Celtics really need to upgrade from Amir Johnson. What about Tyson Chandler from the Suns? Wouldn't cost much and would allow Horford to play at the 4. Or maybe if the Magic see they're going nowhere and decide to trade Serge Ibaka, that would be nice as well. Either or both of them would be awesome. Anything but Amir Johnson is a upgrade.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2017 12:33:45 GMT -5
Here's a great long term outlook question. Isaah Thomas- is he a max contract player or not? I'm really not sure if I give him a max contract deal in his next extension. IT has definitely established himself as a max contract player this year. That's just the way things are in the NBA these days. He along with all the other expiring contracts is what is going to make Dannys job that much more difficult. One option is to keep them all with there expiring contracts next year and really go for it with another signing, knowing that cap hell is right around the corner. Of course the other side of the sword is that you lose AB or IT in FA and get nothing back in return. Decisions, decisions, at least Danny has the assets to have the options. These last 2 losses have me wondering just how close they are to being really good or how valuable AB is in the lineup. For all IT's offensive ability his D has me questioning whether or not giving him the max deal is the right move long term. Just looking at his +/- gives me pause. Which is why I have always viewed him as a Vinnie Johnson type of 6th player. They win last night with Bradley. Portland is exactly the type of team his D can cause major problems against. Two guards that the whole offense runs through. I give him max money, but think when he starts to slow down he moves to 6th man. Thomas and Smart playing starter minutes together doesn't work well.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2017 15:42:11 GMT -5
The Celtics really need to upgrade from Amir Johnson. What about Tyson Chandler from the Suns? Wouldn't cost much and would allow Horford to play at the 4. Or maybe if the Magic see they're going nowhere and decide to trade Serge Ibaka, that would be nice as well. Either or both of them would be awesome. Chandler would be a nice upgrade, but for some reason Suns have said they aren't trading him. It makes no sense, but the Sun's never seem to make the right moves. Ibaka wouldn't be bad, but Magic paid a very high price for him. I just don't see them trading him for a late first round pick. He's also not the rebounder he once was and we really need an elite rebounder. I would love a trade for Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic. They have been trying to trade Faried for years and a ton of reports show they are going to move Nurkic. They both can rebound and play D. If you wanted to go small play Faried, if you wanted to go big play Nurkic. Faried also gets to the line at a good rate, a huge need for this team.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2017 15:54:19 GMT -5
The projected Salary cap for next year is now 102, down from 108. If the Celtics keep KO's cap hold (4.2m), they should have about 62m in salaries assuming they waive Zeller's non guaranteed deal. You add in the two rookies from overseas and that number goes to about 65. If they have the number 1 pick, that goes to 70m.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 22, 2017 16:18:27 GMT -5
Regarding Chandler, while 13 million per year may not look like a lot in the "new NBA", do you commit that to a one dimensional guy in his mid 30s? For 2 more years?
Agree that he's the type of player.
And as to his availability, most GMS are going to say publicly that their guy isn't being traded.
Would LOVE Nurkic but Denver needs to package him for a significant upgrade to their roster. The only one I could see would be a package to get IT (let's not go there). Otherwise, who? I love Bradley but is he MUCH better than Gary Harris (whom we'd probably want back along with JN). Just not a great match.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2017 16:20:26 GMT -5
The projected Salary cap for next year is now 102, down from 108. If the Celtics keep KO's cap hold (4.2m), they should have about 62m in salaries assuming they waive Zeller's non guaranteed deal. You add in the two rookies from overseas and that number goes to about 65. If they have the number 1 pick, that goes to 70m. www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BOS.htmlYour at 72 million with Zeller, your at 64 million without him. Your at 68 with KO hold, your at around 71 with two overseas rookies and 76-77 million for top pick. That's not counting second round picks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2017 16:24:18 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2017 16:29:16 GMT -5
Ok broke out calculator KO hold isn't I. The hoopshype total so 74m if they have top pick. Those two rookies Are a mid first and second round pick. It's not going to be 5-6m for them, more like 3 total.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2017 16:30:10 GMT -5
The only difference is they aren't counting Mickey deal, so if you wanted to minus just under 1.3 million you can. Your numbers are still way low.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 22, 2017 16:30:59 GMT -5
QOs <> holds for RFAs. By making the 4.2 QO, Boston puts a 7.7 hold on their cap.
Basketball Insiders is a good resource for holds.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2017 16:36:44 GMT -5
Ok broke out calculator KO hold isn't I. The hoopshype total so 74m if they have top pick. Those two rookies Are a mid first and second round pick. It's not going to be 5-6m for them, more like 3 total. Two overseas rookies are going to be around 3.5 million. Rozzier was 1.9 and Hunter was 1.2, but Zizic was a higher pick than Hunter. Brown was 5 million, so if we get a top 2 pick it could be close to 6 million. Hence the 5-6 million.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2017 16:39:43 GMT -5
You might not like my comment about our cap space but it's right on. We can't just sign a max free agent without losing guys and then filling out roster with vet min guys and rookies.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2017 16:49:17 GMT -5
I don't care about your comment I Was just trying to work the math...
So say your 77m is accurate, all they have to do is renounce KO, maybe a Jackson. Basically, they replace Jerebko, Zeller, KO, Jackson and Johnson with Max guy, First pick, Zizic, Yabu and a veteran on a mini midlevel or something.
This team isn't going to be in a spot to roster many if any second rd picks this year anyways.
They can add a max there just isn't one to add. Griffin is only one who would fit game wise but he's not leaving LA and I'm not so sure how I feel about his injuries.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2017 16:52:13 GMT -5
I will agree I think Nuric would be a good get but I doubt there is a trade to be made there.
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