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Does clutch/choking exist?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 9, 2016 10:39:32 GMT -5
Given Porcello's and Price's poor outings this October, there's been a lot of talk as to whether Price is a choke artist and how David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in the history of the game.
Seeing as how David Ortiz has a career line of .290/.403/.545/.947 in October over 365 ABs while David Price is 2-8, 1 save, and an ERA of 5.54 over 66.2 IP. Does it stand to reason that being clutch and choking exist?
Personally, I don't believe in clutch. I believe that those who are "clutch" are just unfazed by the spotlight and are able to bring their full skill set to every pitch or at bat; however, this does lead me to believe that choking and shriveling under the spotlight is a very real thing.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 9, 2016 14:28:34 GMT -5
Pressure is definitely a factor and people react to it differently, but at the same time Price has a 3.54 career postseason xFIP (3.37 in regular season) and David Ortiz has a .392 career regular season wOBA (.398 postseason). That's a couple strikeouts or a couple doubles difference over the course of the post season samples. And how much can you even infer from a few innings or a few atbats? Ortiz has 365 career postseason PA spread out over a 19 year career. He definitely LOOKS like he has some sort of clutch ability, but he's also potentially going to do nothing this series in a sweep loss and he's been poor in the the '02, '03, '08 and '09 playoffs. Give him a full regular season's worth of playoff PA and he's going to have the same performance most likely, and maybe give David Price a full season's worth of IP and see what he does.
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Post by tjb21 on Oct 10, 2016 9:41:10 GMT -5
Pressure is definitely a factor and people react to it differently, but at the same time Price has a 3.54 career postseason xFIP (3.37 in regular season) and David Ortiz has a .392 career regular season wOBA (.398 postseason). That's a couple strikeouts or a couple doubles difference over the course of the post season samples. And how much can you even infer from a few innings or a few atbats? Ortiz has 365 career postseason PA spread out over a 19 year career. He definitely LOOKS like he has some sort of clutch ability, but he's also potentially going to do nothing this series in a sweep loss and he's been poor in the the '02, '03, '08 and '09 playoffs. Give him a full regular season's worth of playoff PA and he's going to have the same performance most likely, and maybe give David Price a full season's worth of IP and see what he does. This. |
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Post by p23w on Oct 10, 2016 12:46:22 GMT -5
Given Porcello's and Price's poor outings this October, there's been a lot of talk as to whether Price is a choke artist and how David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in the history of the game. Seeing as how David Ortiz has a career line of .290/.403/.545/.947 in October over 365 ABs while David Price is 2-8, 1 save, and an ERA of 5.54 over 66.2 IP. Does it stand to reason that being clutch and choking exist? Personally, I don't believe in clutch. I believe that those who are "clutch" are just unfazed by the spotlight and are able to bring their full skill set to every pitch or at bat; however, this does lead me to believe that choking and shriveling under the spotlight is a very real thing. Your question begs for analysis beyond numbers. I don't have any answers but I do have distinct memories of incredible post season performances from the most unlikely sources, Don Larsen, Bobby Richardson, Jody Reed, Denny Doyle, Billy Hatcher, just to name a few. David Ortiz has one of the most notable post season records, and alongside of Madison Bumgarner in recent history. Based on these examples I would surmise that post season success is one part "hot hand" and two parts psychological profile. We can extrapolate the hot hand side of the equation from history leading up to the post season, but we have to keep in mind the 2007 Colorado Rockies and their 21 wins in 22 games leading up to their confrontation with the Ortiz Red Sox. Time off, I think the Rockies were idle for 5 days prior to meeting up with the Sox, which would go a long way to explaining the "sweep" put on them by the Boston ball club. With respect to Price, I strongly suspect his "unclutch" post season performances have been psychological to date. I strongly suspect that he would/will pitch closer to his regular season numbers if the Sox give him an early multiple run cushion. I don't believe he will need this each time he pitches in the post season, but I am hoping that one easy blow out win in the post season for Price will remove the "choke" monkey from his back and he will pitch to form afterward. Getting Price "right in the head" is what is required, a track record of one good game could be all that is needed. I agree with you that choking can be a real quantifiable factor in post season performance, but I also believe that it can be alleviated and even reversed under the right conditions. |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 11, 2016 8:10:30 GMT -5
Given Porcello's and Price's poor outings this October, there's been a lot of talk as to whether Price is a choke artist and how David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in the history of the game. Seeing as how David Ortiz has a career line of .290/.403/.545/.947 in October over 365 ABs while David Price is 2-8, 1 save, and an ERA of 5.54 over 66.2 IP. Does it stand to reason that being clutch and choking exist? Personally, I don't believe in clutch. I believe that those who are "clutch" are just unfazed by the spotlight and are able to bring their full skill set to every pitch or at bat; however, this does lead me to believe that choking and shriveling under the spotlight is a very real thing. I would note that Ortiz' lifetime stats are .286/.380/.552/.931, so overall, he was essentially the same hitter in October as he was his entire career. But it SEEMS (not really true?) that in October Ortiz was fortunate enough to come up an inordinate number of times at absolutely crucial points in crucial games and was able to deliver on a huge number of such occasions. Question 1: Was he inordinately lucky in his career to happen to be the batter in such circumstances? In baseball it so often happens that when the crucial moment of a game arrives, SOMEBODY ELSE IS AT BAT. Whether in the playoffs or not, sometimes it's palpable: You know when the moment of truth arrives and the right hitter -- or the wrong hitter -- happens to be at the plate. Especially in playoff baseball, the objective from a pitching point of view is to identify the positions in the opposing lineup that you think are the most likely sources of outs, and at the crucial times of the game pitch around the dangerous players and pitch to the positions in the lineup that you feel most confident facing. That is precisely what happened last night -- the Indians were not about to give Ortiz anything to hit in the 8th, last PA of his career or not. Let somebody else beat you; the Indians were not getting beat by Ortiz last night, because they had a choice in the matter. Question 2: In close, late situations, WAS Ortiz a better hitter, either in general or in playoff situations, that even he was in general throughout his career? Or do we simply remember the times he succeeded and forget the times he failed? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 14, 2016 2:53:43 GMT -5
Simple answer is yes. Some people like the big moment and some don't. I would be interested in data on Ortiz when in a clutch position in postseason. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think of Ortiz as an all time great clutch hitter. I feel that game 3 if that's Ortiz at the plate instead of Shaw, he gets a hit or a walk. I just don't think it's fair to just look at career postseason numbers. I think you need to look into how he did in clutch situations. If I remember right I think Eric did an in depth study on this in another thread.
I wanted to add that everyone thought Texas was clutch this year and look at how they did in postseason. Man only thing I enjoyed this postseason was watching Texas get killed.
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