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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 11, 2016 11:50:15 GMT -5
The offseason is here, sadly. Feel free to read your dog-eared version of The Green Fields of the Mind.
Issues for discussion (non-manager division):
1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in?
2. Who's the starting catcher? Leon, Swihart or CVaz? Presumably Holaday and Hanigan are gone.
3. Who's the third baseman? I assume Moncada will need further seasoning to start the year. That leaves Holt, Panda and Shaw to compete for 3B in spring training, with Panda the heavy (pun intended) favorite and Shaw/Holt filling out the bench.
4. Do we change any starters? It seems clear that Buchholz's option will be picked up. That leaves six starters for five spots (assuming Kelly stays in the bullpen, where he seems to project as a late-inning option). Does Dombrowski re-visit a trade for Sale or Quintana?
5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen?
6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?
No Farrell discussion, please. No trade proposals, either.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 11, 2016 13:14:28 GMT -5
"6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?"
I actually think the Sox would be dumb to pass up a chance to sell high on JBJ. I doubt he has another 25+ homerun season in him in the American League. The trade possibilities are endless. You could use him in trade packages for Chris Sale or Lucas Giolito for example.
I would then put Benintendi at CF and find a LF replacement, like a Carlos Gonzalez.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 11, 2016 13:18:56 GMT -5
The offseason is here, sadly. Feel free to read your dog-eared version of The Green Fields of the Mind. Issues for discussion (non-manager division): 1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in? Well, if we're predicting here, not advocating - Encarnacion. Travis stays in AAA.2. Who's the starting catcher? Leon, Swihart or CVaz? Presumably Holaday and Hanigan are gone. Leon.3. Who's the third baseman? I assume Moncada will need further seasoning to start the year. That leaves Holt, Panda and Shaw to compete for 3B in spring training, with Panda the heavy (pun intended) favorite and Shaw/Holt filling out the bench. Panda.4. Do we change any starters? It seems clear that Buchholz's option will be picked up. That leaves six starters for five spots (assuming Kelly stays in the bullpen, where he seems to project as a late-inning option). Does Dombrowski re-visit a trade for Sale or Quintana? He revisits but price is too high so it's the same six to start the season.5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen? Ziegler is back. Scott rides the shuttle. Plug-in (i.e. not Chapman or other Proven Closer™) reliever also acquired. 6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster? Barring an injury, no prospects make the team. Moncada stays, starts in AA. No Farrell discussion, please. No trade proposals, either.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 11, 2016 13:50:10 GMT -5
I agree with Guidas
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 11, 2016 14:15:11 GMT -5
1. Encarnacion, maybe Bautista. If Travis hits well to start the season, could push his way onto the bench by the AS break or become a trade candidate
2. Leon will probably be the starting catcher, though I really hope the Swihart/Vazquez combination works. Kills be that they wrecked nearly a full year of MLB development on Swihart
3. Panda starts at 3B, Moncada at AAA, maybe AA if they feel the need. Holt should get a decent amount of AB's throughout and be able to start if someone gets hurt
4. Don't think they do much more than peruse the SP market. They'll pick up Clay's option and head into the season with the six starters they have now
5. Koji returns if he's willing to take less $ than I'm sure some team will offer him to be a closer on a two year deal. Ziegler returns if he's willing to do the same, though the Sox may offer him more than most 7th innings guys, but I have to think some team will offer him closer money.
6. I don't think anyone major gets traded. There just isn't that gaping hole on the roster that needs to be filled that can't by an obvious FA pickup. Could see someone like Johnson get moved for a RP. Best prospect that could get traded is Dubon, who I think can be an MLB starter for another team
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 11, 2016 14:24:10 GMT -5
Why start Moncada in AA? He seems well beyond that level. Why keep Sam Travis in AAA for the year if he comes back strong? Why not re-sign Koji? Kimbrel, Koji, Kelly, Ross is a good foundation. Taz was a victim of ridiculous overuse both in the bullpen and in games. If his arm is still attached and working, he would be one of the best RP's available, especially if used properly. Why not bring him back? Hanley for DH where his numbers are excellent, and which will keep him from accidents. If either Travis or Devers are viable in 2017-18, an EE would block them. I would start the year with Shaw at 1B where he could platoon with DH Hanley and others. As with JBJ last year, we still need to find out what an experienced Travis Shaw can provide as he enters his prime. He may start off on a hot streak and with solid defense. He may become a valuable bench player And we need to find out what we have in Panda. He is either a genuine asset, a genuine trade piece, or a sunk cost. He has to start 2017 (if able) with Shaw, Holt, Hernandez backing him. It is entirely possible that Beni, Moncada, Travis, Hanley at DH, a mature Shaw, maybe Panda or Devers are the best bets to replace Papi's incredible numbers, with costs controlled, maximum versatility, improved speed, no loss of draft pick or top prospects.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 11, 2016 15:13:10 GMT -5
Why start Moncada in AA? He seems well beyond that level. Again, being predictive. He needs to work on pitch recognition, and reducing his K rate at that level. Start there, move to AAA in a month to 6 weeks if he shows improvement. Stupid that they started his service time already. Why keep Sam Travis in AAA for the year if he comes back strong? No one said keep him there but he's coming of major surgery. Let's see how he responds.Why not re-sign Koji? Kimbrel, Koji, Kelly, Ross is a good foundation. They may but I bet he can get more money elsewhere.Taz was a victim of ridiculous overuse both in the bullpen and in games. If his arm is still attached and working, he would be one of the best RP's available, especially if used properly. Why not bring him back? This is a difficult concept for the 2017 manager of the Boston Red Sox.Hanley for DH where his numbers are excellent, and which will keep him from accidents. If either Travis or Devers are viable in 2017-18, an EE would block them. Not necessarily. There are injuries and trades. And Devers is likely 1.5 years away at a bare minimum, maybe more. Personally, I think Travis is trade bait, barring major injuries to MLB players. I would start the year with Shaw at 1B where he could platoon with DH Hanley and others. As with JBJ last year, we still need to find out what an experienced Travis Shaw can provide as he enters his prime. He may start off on a hot streak and with solid defense. He may become a valuable bench player And we need to find out what we have in Panda. He is either a genuine asset, a genuine trade piece, or a sunk cost. He has to start 2017 (if able) with Shaw, Holt, Hernandez backing him. It is entirely possible that Beni, Moncada, Travis, Hanley at DH, a mature Shaw, maybe Panda or Devers are the best bets to replace Papi's incredible numbers, with costs controlled, maximum versatility, improved speed, no loss of draft pick or top prospects.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 11, 2016 16:15:55 GMT -5
Travis should remain in AAA as depth. He has options left, so he will be a much better depth player than a minor league free agent. I'd really like to re-sign Koji and Ziegler.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2016 16:39:55 GMT -5
The offseason is here, sadly. Feel free to read your dog-eared version of The Green Fields of the Mind. Issues for discussion (non-manager division): 1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in? 2. Who's the starting catcher? Leon, Swihart or CVaz? Presumably Holaday and Hanigan are gone. 3. Who's the third baseman? I assume Moncada will need further seasoning to start the year. That leaves Holt, Panda and Shaw to compete for 3B in spring training, with Panda the heavy (pun intended) favorite and Shaw/Holt filling out the bench. 4. Do we change any starters? It seems clear that Buchholz's option will be picked up. That leaves six starters for five spots (assuming Kelly stays in the bullpen, where he seems to project as a late-inning option). Does Dombrowski re-visit a trade for Sale or Quintana? 5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen? 6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster? No Farrell discussion, please. No trade proposals, either. 1. Encarnacion. He provides the power numbers the lineup will be missing. 35+ homers and 120-ish RBIs. I think it could be one of those situations where Dombrowski actually overspends to make sure he gets his guy. 2. I'll say Swihart gets another chance at catcher. He has by far the best bat of the group and I think the FO will be patient with his defense. 3. Panda will be the starting 3B. Early prediction: he actually has a solid year. 4. Dombrowski will see what he has in Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Buchholz, and Pomeranz. Wright is the long reliever/6th starter. I think if they pick up a starter, it will come at the deadline. 5. Kimbrell, Kelly, Barnes, Ross, Wright. The other two spots I think will be a free agent acquisition, plus maybe an organizational guy to keep a seat warm until Smith is ready around mid-season. 6. I do not see any trades this offseason. I think DD will make a free agent splash or two to fill out the lineup and bullpen. Any potential trades involving the top prospects in the system will be made at the deadline. I think Devers is the most likely big name prospect to get traded, if DD decides to do so.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2016 22:08:20 GMT -5
The offseason is here, sadly. Feel free to read your dog-eared version of The Green Fields of the Mind. Issues for discussion (non-manager division): 1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in? 2. Who's the starting catcher? Leon, Swihart or CVaz? Presumably Holaday and Hanigan are gone. 3. Who's the third baseman? I assume Moncada will need further seasoning to start the year. That leaves Holt, Panda and Shaw to compete for 3B in spring training, with Panda the heavy (pun intended) favorite and Shaw/Holt filling out the bench. 4. Do we change any starters? It seems clear that Buchholz's option will be picked up. That leaves six starters for five spots (assuming Kelly stays in the bullpen, where he seems to project as a late-inning option). Does Dombrowski re-visit a trade for Sale or Quintana? 5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen? 6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster? No Farrell discussion, please. No trade proposals, either. 1) I think Dombrowski will break down, punt the draft pick (if that's still the rule), and sign Encarnacion to replace Ortiz. That's as close as they can come to directly replacing his production although Encarnacion, as good as he is, is no Ortiz. I'd prefer they sign a short-term solution like Carlos Beltran. I'd like to think by year's end Hanley is the DH and Sam Travis is the 1b (or vice versa if need be.) 2) I think Blake Swihart and Sandy Leon wind up platooning and Christian Vazquez gets dealt in June or July. 3) I think the 3b will be Sandoval until July, at which point I think Moncada will get the call up to play 3b and this time will be ready. 4) I think the Sox will go with the six starters. My prediction is that Drew Pomeranz will need Tommy John surgery so that they'll actually have their five starters and will have to make a depth acquisition. His elbow is questionable already. I think we're really, really going to hate that trade next year when I think Espinoza takes a big leap forward and Pomeranz is gone for most of the year and a good portion of the following year meaning the Red Sox get some mediocre pitching for a fraction of the year at the cost of one of the best pitching prospects in the game. 5) The bullpen will have Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross as sure things. I think Ziegler is gone and likely Koji is gone, too unless he signs for short $. He won't get $9 million but if the Sox are willing to gamble $5 million. I don't think Dombrowski will. I think the Sox will sign a flame throwing middle reliever or perhaps deal Travis Shaw plus for one. Robbie Scott will get a long look as the LOOGY. Barnes and Hembree should get spots in the pen, too. And yes Carson Smith comes back at some point, but I doubt the Sox rely on him much this season. 6) If Dombrowski swings for the fences for Sale or Quintana then I expect to see E-Rod and Devers go. Devers is the most likely big prospect to be dealt. I don't think the Sox will deal Moncada and Benintendi should be safe. I can see Dubon being part of a deal. I don't think he'll deal Kopech or Groome - at least yet. I really don't think that the Sox will swing a big deal other than getting a flame throwing setup man.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 11, 2016 23:00:09 GMT -5
1-- You didn't want to mention trade but then you mention Hosmer? I think Sam Travis needs time. You did leave open free agency so depending on what they believe in Panda- I say why not sign Pearce for 1b/3b/DH and Young for some DH along with Panda for DH along with HanRam for DH? Any combination of these guys to fill in DH role. Panda should not hit vs lefties.
2-- I don't know about catcher. But here is a dart -- depending on his surgery what would be a possibility of going after Ramos in FA if surgery goes okay? He can start season as the DH quite a bit- early on platoon DH. Then as season progresses he gets a bit more time catching then more and more - Hanley could then move to DH later in year as Ramos catches more giving Hanley a bit more rest as season progresses. And at 1b we can platoon Sam Travis (if he's ready late)/Travis Shaw or Panda. -- Or suppose we had Pearce and Ramos? We would get Ramos for something cheaper and could "wait" a bit for him to significantly catch. I'm not saying do this and surgery has to be a success etc. Pearce could be the rh bat at 1b instead of waiting for Sam Travis. So is this a possibility or no way in hell?
3-- For 3B I wouldn't trust Panda even if you paid me. He's too unpredictable not only preseason but during season - and to have an awful defensive 3rd baseman like him or to trust him-- it's a huge risk imo. So I think Holt is best option which means signing Pearce is someone I favor more than any other. He can platoon with Holt while Holt can still give Pedey and XB some breaks. And getting another decent infield player in case Pedey gets hurt adding depth with Pearce without breaking the bank can't hurt. The splits for Holt this year - he was awful vs lefties. So was Shaw. So is Panda. We need another rh bat to offset the awful splits vs the lefties. Pearce fits this.
4-- Keep Clay only if we aren't planning on spending big with multiple players/ or looking to make only one big move but remain inside the most expensive portion of the new cba cap. Otherwise let him go if we spend a lot and maybe find a cheap starter instead of Clay's salary. I'm not a fan of Clay but having 6 starters isn't so bad.
5-- ***Go after Chapman-- HARD. Very HARD. IF we lose out on the bid, make sure the team that gets him paid a steep price.
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Post by sierram363 on Oct 12, 2016 3:31:43 GMT -5
1-- You didn't want to mention trade but then you mention Hosmer? I think Sam Travis needs time. You did leave open free agency so depending on what they believe in Panda- I say why not sign Pearce for 1b/3b/DH and Young for some DH along with Panda for DH along with HanRam for DH? Any combination of these guys to fill in DH role. Panda should not hit vs lefties. 2-- I don't know about catcher. But here is a dart -- depending on his surgery what would be a possibility of going after Ramos in FA if surgery goes okay? He can start season as the DH quite a bit- early on platoon DH. Then as season progresses he gets a bit more time catching then more and more - Hanley could then move to DH later in year as Ramos catches more giving Hanley a bit more rest as season progresses. And at 1b we can platoon Sam Travis (if he's ready late)/Travis Shaw or Panda. -- Or suppose we had Pearce and Ramos? We would get Ramos for something cheaper and could "wait" a bit for him to significantly catch. I'm not saying do this and surgery has to be a success etc. Pearce could be the rh bat at 1b instead of waiting for Sam Travis. So is this a possibility or no way in hell? 3-- For 3B I wouldn't trust Panda even if you paid me. He's too unpredictable not only preseason but during season - and to have an awful defensive 3rd baseman like him or to trust him-- it's a huge risk imo. So I think Holt is best option which means signing Pearce is someone I favor more than any other. He can platoon with Holt while Holt can still give Pedey and XB some breaks. And getting another decent infield player in case Pedey gets hurt adding depth with Pearce without breaking the bank can't hurt. The splits for Holt this year - he was awful vs lefties. So was Shaw. So is Panda. We need another rh bat to offset the awful splits vs the lefties. Pearce fits this. 4-- Keep Clay only if we aren't planning on spending big with multiple players/ or looking to make only one big move but remain inside the most expensive portion of the new cba cap. Otherwise let him go if we spend a lot and maybe find a cheap starter instead of Clay's salary. I'm not a fan of Clay but having 6 starters isn't so bad. 5-- ***Go after Chapman-- HARD. Very HARD. IF we lose out on the bid, make sure the team that gets him paid a steep price. I agree that Dombroski should prioritize Chapman in the offseason. I just have a feeling he'd go cheap on the middle relievers in the offseason and try to trade for one in the trading deadline instead.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 4:08:32 GMT -5
1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in?
Pablo Sandoval takes Ortiz's spot in the lineup, which improves the defense, and Hanley takes over as DH. Of course it's a downgrade, but there's no improvement that makes sense in terms of benefits versus costs (unless Altanta wants to trade Freddie Feeman for a lot less than he's worth), and they're still good enough to be clear favorites to win the division. If they sign Encarnacion, I'll be able to punt the season. Maybe the team for the foreseeable future. It's that stupid.
Note that if you do sign a DH, you have no spot on the roster for a bat to platoon with Sandoval / Shaw / Holt. That's one of the ways you're losing value offensively (the other being that you lose Hanley's non-trivial DH performance premium) with that move, and hence (when combined with a near 1-win defensive downgrade at 1B) you end up paying a ridiculous amount for an extra win or two ... which simply make you a really clear favorite to win the division. Oh, and long before the contract is up you'll likely have a much better player for that lineup spot, for league freaking minimum, in Devers. This team's track record with elite hitting talent has been unreal. It's going to continue.
Travis is in AAA trying to work his way into a platoon role.
2. Who's the starting catcher?
CV and Leon should split time more or less equally to begin with. A smart team could identify the pitchers that can exploit Leon's weaknesses. Swihart (the only one with options left) catches in AAA and tries to get himself into the mix and/or re-establish his trade value.
3. Who's the third baseman?
The assumption that Sandoval is a better defender than Shaw is not backed up by data. You sign Sean Rodriguez to platoon with Shaw (with Holt getting some starts on the road), play Sandoval at 1B (where he platoons with Hanley, with Chris Young and Leon at DH), and wait for Moncada. I'm willing to bet that everyone who fears Sandoval as a starter feared Hanley as well (BTW, my prediction last winter for -5 DRS at 1B proved to be on the nose).
Again, I invite everyone to consider a batting order versus RHP of Pedroia, Betts, Benintendi, Ramirez, Bradley, Bogaerts, Shaw / Sandoval, Leon / Vazquez, Sandoval / Holt, and look at other playoff teams. Actually look at the stats, too ... JBJ and X are better than the 5th and 6th best hitters on every other team.
4. Do we change any starters?
I sure as hell hope not, since that would be senseless. Who would you trade? Not Porcello or Price. E-Rod has insane upside. Pomeranz has some health questions and you'd be selling low on second-half performance (I think he'll be much closer to his SD version if healthy). And no one would give you what Wright is worth. Keeping all six gives you pennant-winning depth. Whoever ends up as #6 probably makes 20 starts.
5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen?
You re-sign Koji. You probably want to pick up a LHR to complement Ross. Scott is in AAA as a guy who can ride the shuttle. Hembree gets moved the first time everyone is healthy and/or when Smith returns.
6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?
You could trade anyone from 8 down except Hernandez, who will be useful as a shuttle guy, if you have a LHR you want to target. I haven't looked into them at all, but it seems unlikely that you'd give up much of value if you target a guy with c. 2 years of control left.
You had a 106-win team (with neutral karma, against neutral opposition), except it may have been better than that because the pitching improved dramatically after Bannister went into the dugout. If they don't understand how good the team is, and start making major moves (let alone ones of the caliber of the Kimbrel trade) ... well, I just don't buy that DDo is that stupid, and the entire analytics department ought to be saying similar stuff to him.
Really, the most important change would be to hire a new pitching coach, and come up with a way to essentially take decisions on lifting starters and managing the pen out of JF's hands. For instance, the pitching coach monitors the scouting side, Bannister does all the analytics, they talk continually, and JF's role is to follow them when they agree (which should be most of the time) and be the tie-breaker when they don't. And you pick up his 2018 option only on the condition that he agrees to do that.
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Post by auger1 on Oct 12, 2016 6:12:05 GMT -5
1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in?
Pablo Sandoval takes Ortiz's spot in the lineup, which improves the defense, and Hanley takes over as DH. Of course it's a downgrade, but there's no improvement that makes sense in terms of benefits versus costs (unless Altanta wants to trade Freddie Feeman for a lot less than he's worth), and they're still good enough to be clear favorites to win the division. If they sign Encarnacion, I'll be able to punt the season. Maybe the team for the foreseeable future. It's that stupid. Note that if you do sign a DH, you have no spot on the roster for a bat to platoon with Sandoval / Shaw / Holt. That's one of the ways you're losing value offensively (the other being that you lose Hanley's non-trivial DH performance premium) with that move, and hence (when combined with a near 1-win defensive downgrade at 1B) you end up paying a ridiculous amount for an extra win or two ... which simply make you a really clear favorite to win the division. Oh, and long before the contract is up you'll likely have a much better player for that lineup spot, for league freaking minimum, in Devers. This team's track record with elite hitting talent has been unreal. It's going to continue. Travis is in AAA trying to work his way into a platoon role. 2. Who's the starting catcher?
CV and Leon should split time more or less equally to begin with. A smart team could identify the pitchers that can exploit Leon's weaknesses. Swihart (the only one with options left) catches in AAA and tries to get himself into the mix and/or re-establish his trade value. 3. Who's the third baseman?
The assumption that Sandoval is a better defender than Shaw is not backed up by data. You sign Sean Rodriguez to platoon with Shaw (with Holt getting some starts on the road), play Sandoval at 1B (where he platoons with Hanley, with Chris Young and Leon at DH), and wait for Moncada. I'm willing to bet that everyone who fears Sandoval as a starter feared Hanley as well (BTW, my prediction last winter for -5 DRS at 1B proved to be on the nose). Again, I invite everyone to consider a batting order versus RHP of Pedroia, Betts, Benintendi, Ramirez, Bradley, Bogaerts, Shaw / Sandoval, Leon / Vazquez, Sandoval / Holt, and look at other playoff teams. Actually look at the stats, too ... JBJ and X are better than the 5th and 6th best hitters on every other team. 4. Do we change any starters? I sure as hell hope not, since that would be senseless. Who would you trade? Not Porcello or Price. E-Rod has insane upside. Pomeranz has some health questions and you'd be selling low on second-half performance (I think he'll be much closer to his SD version if healthy). And no one would give you what Wright is worth. Keeping all six gives you pennant-winning depth. Whoever ends up as #6 probably makes 20 starts. 5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen?You re-sign Koji. You probably want to pick up a LHR to complement Ross. Scott is in AAA as a guy who can ride the shuttle. Hembree gets moved the first time everyone is healthy and/or when Smith returns. 6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?You could trade anyone from 8 down except Hernandez, who will be useful as a shuttle guy, if you have a LHR you want to target. I haven't looked into them at all, but it seems unlikely that you'd give up much of value if you target a guy with c. 2 years of control left. You had a 106-win team (with neutral karma, against neutral opposition), except it may have been better than that because the pitching improved dramatically after Bannister went into the dugout. If they don't understand how good the team is, and start making major moves (let alone ones of the caliber of the Kimbrel trade) ... well, I just don't buy that DDo is that stupid, and the entire analytics department ought to be saying similar stuff to him. Really, the most important change would be to hire a new pitching coach, and come up with a way to essentially take decisions on lifting starters and managing the pen out of JF's hands. For instance, the pitching coach monitors the scouting side, Bannister does all the analytics, they talk continually, and JF's role is to follow them when they agree (which should be most of the time) and be the tie-breaker when they don't. And you pick up his 2018 option only on the condition that he agrees to do that. Eric, I know #1 is hyperbole but still. I don't think EE is a need but to react that strongly to signing one of the top 10 RHH hitters in the game is crazy. I think even you can admit your numbers (which I really enjoy reading and think they have value) tend to be between optimistic and out of this world crazy when it comes to evaluating Sox players. I think the things to do this offseason are 1. Trade for Hosmer. I don't think the cost will be prohibitive and you could potentially open it up to include Kelvin Herrera or Wade Davis. Which would take care of issue #2.... (This is assuming Koji retires) 2. The Sox need to either sign or trade for a reliable 8th inning arm. I have high hopes for Kelly but I am not ready to buy in completely an hand him the job. Smith won't be ready beginning of the year. That leaves a pretty big hole as to who the #2 arm in the 'pen is. I think Chapman or Jansen are too expensive and unrealistic so a trade is most likely. 3. This is stolen from a poster on SoSH but I liked the idea so screw it.. Sign Travis Wood. He helps improve starting pitching depth (as that potential 7th/8th starter) and is another lefty in the pen to pair with Ross. Pen would then be: Kimbrel, Set Up man X (Kelvin Herrera?), Joe Kelly, Robbie Ross, Matt Barnes, Travis Wood, Long Reliever (Steven Wright?). That sets up to be a good pen with a decent amount of depth as well.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 12, 2016 8:20:58 GMT -5
1. I'm with Eric in regards to EE. It's too much money for too long of a time to too old of a player. He's awesome, right now.
2. Leon and Vasquez are the catchers unless something you can't refuse comes along. Leon made great strides this year at the plate at an age when it's not odd for catchers to do that. He won't replicate last years numbers because he won't have that ridiculous hot streak but if he's just more consistent that will be a good thing.
3. Third-base and first base is Sandoval and Shaw with Moncada and Travis in AAA as depth for both.
4. No we don't change any starters. The market is too expensive. I don't get the Rich Hill fascination. He's old and always injured. Only thing I can see is a potential trade. If the White Sox get crazy and look to move Quintana (Sale is too unlikely unless he forces his way out but then will be too expensive). More on this possibility later. If they keep the 6 and they are all healthy then I think Buchholz should be in the bullpen. Out of the 6 he's clearly the best bullpen option and I think he can thrive there. Hopefully, it preserves his arm a bit and he can be stronger down the stretch. The trick will be, using him like a bullpen arm so you're getting the most game to game value out of him while still keeping him semi stretched out. This could actually work in their favor as if Farrell knows this is important then maybe he will unknowingly use him as an old school weapon. Close game, starter gets in trouble in the 5th and Clay comes in and throws 4 innings.
5. I don't know who fills it out, but I argue every year the bullpens are too devalued around here. Not signing Miller was worse move this team did or didn't make the last 4 years. Smith should be back after a couple months but who knows what he will be. The pen should be built without him in mind so he's just so he's just all gravy. I do think Joe Kelley can be a complete stud out there. Barnes not so much.
6. I'll change this a bit to say "which players are likely to be traded". It's probably unlikely that despite everything I said above that Dombrowski doesn't make a major trade. He's called Trader Dan for a reason. If I had to pick some players most likely to be traded, they would be Moncada, Erod, Bradley Jr, Shaw and Buchholz.
A starter will most likely be his target. Think something like Rodriguez and Moncada to the ChiSox for Quintana.
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Post by manfred on Oct 12, 2016 9:24:16 GMT -5
NO to Chapman. Character counts. Teams end up with problem players no matter how hard they work, but there's no reason to go out of your way for one.
I am likely a minority, but I'm down on signing EE. As some have said, he's righty, which is a huge problem. He will also be an overspend on an older player. I don't want massive money going to him as well as Panda and Price 2-3 years from now.
Again, probably a minority voice, but I say replace Papi by committee and development. Hope Beni has a good year, the others maintain their performance, maybe sign cheaper free agent with power. Hell, if you are going to get a righty, I'd as soon get Napoli for less money and fewer years.
I think the priority should be bullpen and figuring out what's going on with pitching coaching.
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Post by Alonzo on Oct 12, 2016 9:27:25 GMT -5
The offseason is here, sadly. Feel free to read your dog-eared version of The Green Fields of the Mind. Issues for discussion (non-manager division): 1. Who replaces Papi's bat? Encarnacion is the obvious choice, notwithstanding that he is a RHH and will cost a 1st round draft pick (#26). Could also seek a trade for a LHH 1B such as Eric Hosmer. Where does Sam Travis fit in? 2. Who's the starting catcher? Leon, Swihart or CVaz? Presumably Holaday and Hanigan are gone. 3. Who's the third baseman? I assume Moncada will need further seasoning to start the year. That leaves Holt, Panda and Shaw to compete for 3B in spring training, with Panda the heavy (pun intended) favorite and Shaw/Holt filling out the bench. 4. Do we change any starters? It seems clear that Buchholz's option will be picked up. That leaves six starters for five spots (assuming Kelly stays in the bullpen, where he seems to project as a late-inning option). Does Dombrowski re-visit a trade for Sale or Quintana? 5. Who fills out the bullpen? Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and the 6th starter (assuming no injuries/trades) seem like locks. I'll assume Smith is not ready to start the year and Taz/Abad are gone. Hembree is out of options. Does Koji and/or Ziegler return for one more year at short money? Can Robbie Scott make the big club or will he ride the shuttle? Is it worth spending big bucks in the bullpen? 6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster? No Farrell discussion, please. No trade proposals, either. 1. EE would be the obvious choice to replace Papi's bat, but I wouldn't sign him. I imagine him getting at least 4 years 20 per. That's too steep for me if you include the draft pick. They should rather invest the money elsewhere, extensions for example. 2. Leon/Vazquez...Swihart starts the year in AAA and works i his catching. Don't want to see him anywhere near the OF again. 3. Likely Sandoval and hope for the best. Maybe he can even build some value. 4. Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Pomeranz are locks barring a surprising trade. That leaves one spot. The option for Buchholz gets picked up easily. Maybe they are trying to do another Miley for Smith move. I think he will re-visit with the CWS and wouldn't rule out anything. Yet the prices will be prohibitive due to no supply at the FA market. 5. If Kelly can accept his new role, he will stay in the pen and will be a lock, along with Kimbrel, Barnes and RRJ. I assume Ziegler will be gone and Koji is 50/50. I would re-sign Koji on a year to year basis as he is still effective and there is little reason to question that going forward. I wouldn't rule out the possibillity of DDo trying to build a super bullpen like the Yankees had with multiple closers. That means going after Jansen/Chapman. No matter what, a bullpen of Kimbrel, Jansen, Koji, Kelly, RRJ, Smith would surely look nice. 6. Groome and Kopech should be safe. They invested a lot of money in Moncada, so DDO would have to be very convincing to be allowed to trade him. Benintendi is possible as his value must be sky high right now. They could get away with less defense in LF. If I were in charge, I wouldn't trade any prospect and try to get a top starter with a JBJ package. Benintendi would overtake in CF. LF duties get shared by Young and Holt. But if I had to make a bet on a prospect getting traded, I'd say Devers.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 12, 2016 10:14:59 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 12, 2016 10:18:19 GMT -5
"6. Which prospects are likely to be traded to fill out the roster? Does Moncada's awful September free him up in Dombrowski's eyes for a trade? What about Leon/JBJ's awful ALDS? Will Benny's trade value be too high to pass on a potential blockbuster?" I actually think the Sox would be dumb to pass up a chance to sell high on JBJ. I doubt he has another 25+ homerun season in him in the American League. The trade possibilities are endless. You could use him in trade packages for Chris Sale or Lucas Giolito for example. I would then put Benintendi at CF and find a LF replacement, like a Carlos Gonzalez. I guess you could trade JBJ and sign someone without a QO like Carlos Gomez for a corner OF spot, but I wouldn't make that decision based on a 3 game series sample size. JBJ is a very good player.
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Post by jdb on Oct 12, 2016 11:10:16 GMT -5
I don't think we need to sign a top DH and would like a series of smaller moves. I like the thought of Ethier from LAD. They've become to LH and we could probably get him for cheap and have a Young/Ethier platoon at DH with the ability to rest and rotate our OFs in and out of that spot and give Xander a lot more games there as well. Also I'm looking for a RHH that can play the corner infield and I'd put Shaw on the market. Sean Rodriguez seems like he could be a short term fit and maybe a Trevor Plouff could be an option. I think Sandavals pride will kick in and he'll rebound until Moncadas ready.
Clays option is a no brainer but I don't know if I'd put him in the rotation or trade him in a pitching starved market. If we could get a decent 6th starter or swing man having Owens and Johnson in AAA provides depth. It's a tough call. I'd also try to keep one of if not both Koji and Ziegler.
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Post by manfred on Oct 12, 2016 14:33:59 GMT -5
What about someone like Mitch Moreland? Surely he is a relatively cheap alternative, and he is lefty.
I'd love for the Sox to sign Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland. I suspect the latter can come back, and that would give them a pretty dominant bullpen (though I am sure I have said this before).
As for trading JBJ, in a way it feels a bit like the conversations that happened with him before -- trading "low." Obviously not nearly as low as last time, but we'd never discuss it if he'd been a little better (say, as bad as Mookie) in the playoffs. I say keep him. He is what he is. Great fielder, some power, massive strikeout swing, probably bottom of the lineup guy. Probably more valuable on the field than in a trade.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 14:42:52 GMT -5
There is one rational move to keep the offense at an insanely great level despite Papi's absence, and that's to trade Travis Shaw and whatever prospects it takes for an elite LH hitting 1B, like Freddie Freeman. Or Freddie Freeman.
I want to point out how weak the current crop of MLB 1B are. Eric Hosmer is coming off a 1.0 bWAR / 650 PA season. So is Mike Napoli.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 12, 2016 15:06:02 GMT -5
I absolutely LOVE Freeman and if Atlanta isn't asking for a ridiculous price I'd absolutely do that. I really don't think they won't be asking for a ridiculous price though.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 12, 2016 15:20:49 GMT -5
I can't imagine Atlanta trading Freeman when they're opening a new stadium. Rizzo would even be more obtainable I bet centered around a JBJ+ package. With a lot of + because of Rizzo's unbelievably cheap contract.
Or we could circle back to a potential Votto deal for the 100th time.
Other than that, I'd focus on a RH 3B instead and count on some combination of Shaw/Hanley/Travis at 1B.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 12, 2016 15:30:29 GMT -5
There is one rational move to keep the offense at an insanely great level despite Papi's absence, and that's to trade Travis Shaw and whatever prospects it takes for an elite LH hitting 1B, like Freddie Freeman. Or Freddie Freeman. I want to point out how weak the current crop of MLB 1B are. Eric Hosmer is coming off a 1.0 bWAR / 650 PA season. So is Mike Napoli. Unless I'm missing someone, the only player who fits that description and is even remotely plausible in a trade is Votto. Which I wouldn't hate, honestly. He's easily better than any of the FA bats we've been talking about. At the risk of derailing this thread, I kinda feel like Votto is the best answer for the "if you went and grabbed 20 year old Ted Williams in your time machine and brought him to 2016, what player would be most resemble?" hypothetical.
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