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Edwin Encarnacion: Help Estimate His Net Value!
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 12:55:58 GMT -5
Who wants EE and who doesn't? How much of that is driven by differences in how good we think he will be, versus Sandoval? And how much of that is driven by a different take on how much better he would make the team, even if we agree on how good both guys are?
Well, there are no facts about how good each guy will be next year, just opinions, informed to various degrees. But there are lots of facts that can be applied to turn whatever someone thinks the performance difference will be into a difference in value to the team. I can do that.
So ...
Put your numbers in bold after the questions, and bold your choices for question 4 and 5. Optional: explain your work! (Double secret optional: debate with others.)
After folks have posted, in a week or two, I'll turn it into a set of net value estimations. I'll use standard projections for other players involved in the equation (Shaw, Young, etc.) and make some reasonable assumptions about playing time. (I still have some numbers to crunch, hence the time frame).
Pablo Sandoval, in his last 3 seasons with the Giants, averaged +12 runs offensively per 650 PA, playing against all pitching. After his -21 season in 2015, Steamer (which has been more accurate in the past) projected him for about +6 this year, and ZiPS for about -5.5.
One of the reasons Cherington went after him is that he looked like a much better fit for Fenway than his old park, a factor which can be huge (see: Bill Mueller, 2003, a similar hitter coming from the same park) and which those projections are omitting ... but of course that didn't show up at all in 2015.
He's reportedly in great shape and highly motivated to bounce back. Often that means jack, but sometimes it's for real (see: Hanley Ramirez 2016).
1) How good do you think Pablo Sandoval will be this year in R per 650 PA, if he played against all pitching? (I'll factor in his large platoon splits, since that's objective and takes math.)
Hanley Ramirez the last 3 years has had 110 PA as a DH and has been an insane +8.4 runs compared to his value if he'd hit like he did as a fielder. Not +8.4 runs per 650 PA, +8.4 runs in the actual 110. That's +50 per 650 PA. No wonder that he wants to DH!
He had only 37 scattered PA at DH previously, with neutral results; if you include that, the rate per 650 falls to "only" +35 R.
2) How much offensive value do you think Hanley Ramirez gains if he has 650 PA as a DH? (I'll adjust that down to a likelier 400+ PA.) It's obviously not +35 or +50, but it's hugely unlikely to be 0, either.
I now think that if we signed Encarnacion, he'd play 1B and Hanley would DH.
Edwin Encarnacion is going into his age 34 season and has gone +40, 33, 35, 36, 23 runs offensively per 650 PA his last 5 years. His final ROS projection from FanGraphs was for 23, so his projections for next year are likely to be in that ballpark.
Speaking of which ... he is a career .286 / .369 / .524 at Fenway vs. .261 / .355 / .492 at home with the Jays versus the Sox. If sustained over the course of a 650 PA season, that would be worth 4.5 runs.
3) What do you expect from Edwin Encarnacion next year, in R per 650, if he were with the Sox?
4) How do you feel about signing Edwin Encarnacion as DH?
Very much opposed
Somewhat opposed
Undecided
Somewhat in favor
Very much in favor
5) If you sign EE, who fills the other two roster spots? (Starting 3B, and the last guy on the bench joining CV, Holt, and Young)
A) Sandoval and Shaw or vice versa ... whoever is better starts
B) Sandoval and Sean Rodriguez as a platoon guy (he's the best option even ignoring his Holt-like versatility). Trade Shaw.
C) Shaw and Sean Rodriguez. Trade Sandoval.
D) There's room for Sandoval, Shaw, and S-Rod because I just answered "Very much opposed." (I'll use the consensus choice for A through C to calculate the net value for folks who choose this.)
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 12, 2016 17:56:09 GMT -5
1) -10 Runs per 650. He's finished 100%. He'll go home this winter and gain back any weight he's shed and it's just 100% over for him as an actual baseball player.
2) 5 additional runs per 650 at DH
3) +20 runs per 650
4) VERY MUCH OPPOSED
5) D
Encarnacion might be a fantastic fit in Fenway, but holy hell he is going to get a lot of money as a 34 year old 1B-future-DH.
I don't see the fit on the roster without moving Ramirez. Would much rather they take the 25 million a season that would go to EE and bring in Chapman and go ask Brian Bannister who he thinks is the best reclamation project starter or reliever to bring in.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2016 19:48:27 GMT -5
Nelson Cruz got a four-year, $57 million deal; Victor Martinez got a four-year, $68 million deal. Both of these guys were as old or older than Encarnacion when they signed the deals. There is no way Encarnacion takes less than four years, and five could be a possibility if a team is willing to up the ante enough to make sure they get him.
I am going to just throw out a prediction of four years, $80 million. And I just have a feeling that Dombrowski is going to outspend everyone else to make sure he gets his guy. I have mixed feelings about going after Encarnacion, but I will admit I don't like the thought of going into next season with Sandoval and Shaw as the starting corner infielders.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 12, 2016 20:26:57 GMT -5
I'm guessing EE gets somewhere around 5 years 100-110 million and I'd still fo it.
The only way I'm holding off on EE is if we all know for sure that Shohei Otani is getting posted this off-season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2016 21:08:23 GMT -5
1) I'll say Sandoval is -20 runs in 650 plate appearances but will only get half of them. I anticipate Moncada will be the 3b by midseason
2) I think the difference will be negligible
3) About 25 - 30 runs on the plus side in 650 plate appearances
4) Undecided. Depends upon whether you have to give up your draft pick or not. Also depends upon if Otani is posted. If either of those happen, then I am opposed. If you can get him free and clear and for 3 years I'd strongly consider it. I wouldn't really want to go the four years I anticipate it will take. It also depends on your opinion of Sam Travis. I'm pretty high on Travis and would hate to see him blocked but there's no way he's more valuable this year or next than Encarnacion.
5) They'll get a RH hitting 3b - maybe Valencia? They might go with Rutledge or Hernandez for the other spot. FWIW, I think Shaw will get dealt this winter for a relief arm.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 13, 2016 7:53:38 GMT -5
I think we've seen the last full time DH for the Sox. You plan for Moncada to be ready by mid-season, start the year with Sandoval/Shaw/Holt at 3B, Hanley/Shaw at 1B and rotating the DH spot to give Pedroia (age), Bogaerts (not enough rest last year) and Hanley (age) regular days "off" and work in Young vs lefties. I don't give up the draft pick and I don't want a 4-5 year deal for a DH. Even without Encarnacion the lineup is pretty solid:
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Betts
Ramirez
Benintendi
Bradley
Shaw/Holt/Sandoval/Young
Shaw/Holt/Sandoval/Young
Leon
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Post by tjb21 on Oct 13, 2016 8:02:34 GMT -5
Really like him as a player.
Think it will take north of $90M to get him. Tough spot to be in for Boston. Think I'll pass on that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2016 8:04:05 GMT -5
I know I'm probably alone in thinking this but I can see Pablo having a better offensive year than JBJ next year. I think if Pablo gets serious about his health, he could be the 3B all season next year.
With Farrell the manager around, Pablo will be playing over Moncada if Pablo is performing. Honestly too, Pablo is probably the best 3B option the Sox have if Pablo starts getting serious about baseball again...
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Post by bluechip on Oct 13, 2016 8:56:40 GMT -5
The way I think of it, the Red Sox do not and should not sign a DH. They have a DH already: Hanley Ramirez. If Hanley and Edwin were both free agents would you sign both? No freaking way. You'd sign one and go find a first baseman. That is what the Red Sox need to do. Find a stop gap first baseman.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 13, 2016 8:57:08 GMT -5
1. I think Sandoval will be an average (100 wRC+) or higher hitter against RHP. IDK and IDC what he will do against LHP, because I don't think he should play against LHP
2. I don't agree with the question
3. Slightly declining performance from his last three years, but still above average
4. Opposed
5. A and D
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Post by tookme55 on Oct 13, 2016 10:01:54 GMT -5
DD usually takes the straight, simple approach to resolving conflicts. He does not like complications.
Why wouldn't he pay $110M for 5 years to sign EE? It's not much more than what Cherington gave Pablo. And EE will provide Sox with power.
My dream line up
C Swihart
1B Hanley
2B Pedey
3B Moncada
SS Xander
LF Beni
CF Bradley
RF Betts
DH Sir Edward
Devers waiting on the wings
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 13, 2016 12:42:53 GMT -5
DD usually takes the straight, simple approach to resolving conflicts. He does not like complications. Why wouldn't he pay $110M for 5 years to sign EE? There are several reasons. 1. People will overpay for something perceived as a necessity. (Cases in point: David Price, Craig Kimbrel.) There are AL teams with mediocre offenses and no good DH that will be desperate to sign EE, viewing him as the key to a post-season berth. You don't want to be the highest bidder in that battle, if he is in fact a luxury for you, because you will get less than he's worth. And since we will project to have the best offense in MLB and the best team in the AL even without EE, and since we already have the best DH in baseball in Hanley, he could not be more of a luxury for us. 2. By moving Hanley back to 1B, you lose about a win of value (or more). That comes directly off of EE's value to you. Now it's almost impossible to justify his salary. 3. There's actually no spot for him on the roster. You need a RH bat to platoon with either Sandoval or Shaw, which was why they got Aaron Hill. A terrific candidate for that role is FA Sean Rodriguez, who is basically Brock Holt in terms of versatility but a lefty-killer a la Chris Young. So if you're not willing to keep both Sandoval and Shaw (and you shouldn't be, since you lose another 0.5+ WAR by forcing your 3B to face LHP), you have to trade either Sandoval or Shaw this winter. You would have to dump Sandoval for nothing and eat a lot of his contract, so that means trading Shaw to some team that needs a 3B, say, for a LHR and a prospect. So now you have to ask whether it makes sense to trade a cost-controlled player who was going to be part of a 2.5 - 3.0 WAR platoon in order to get a 3.4 - 4.0 WAR player ... at the exorbitant price we've just established. (And in fact, if you take EE's WAR and deduct the 1.0 you lose by moving Hanley back to 1B, you can see that it's becoming unclear whether adding EE actually makes you better at all. Oops, spoiled the ending of the thread!) 4. You're going to need the money for extensions for Bogaerts, Bradley, and Betts. For starters. 5. In a year and a half (or less) you're likely looking at a top 10 prospect in MLB in Devers, who is now completely blocked (not just blocked at his position, a la Mookie) ... because you have two expensive, aging DH's on the roster instead of one. And neither of them is a good defensive 1B, while Devers, as a 3B who gets raves for his defense, projects to be a defensive force at 1B. And we're already hoping to have Swihart (or Leon or Vazquez) as a significant trade chip with no pressing need to fill, so it's not like you're looking to make a guy like Devers into surplus as well. |
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2016 16:28:06 GMT -5
I wouldn't assume that there will be a huge bidding war for Encarnacion, especially if teams think he is or soon will be a DH-only guy. Most AL teams are some combination of (a) have good DHs already (Mariners, Indians, Astros, Twins), (b) have incumbent options that they can't move (Tigers, Angels), or (c) don't have the payroll to be major players (Rays, Athletics, Royals).
The teams that I see maybe being in the hunt for a DH this offseason are the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers and maybe White Sox. But there will also be a pretty significant list of free agent DHs, including Encarnacion, Bautista, Trumbo, Beltran and others (e.g., Napoli, Alvarez, Moss, etc). If some of those teams choose to go cheap at DH (e.g., if the White Sox and/or Yankees decide to do a longer rebuild), the market for Encarnacion might well be almost reasonable.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2016 16:38:28 GMT -5
With that said, the Red Sox certainly don't need Encarnacion, and their roster gives them the flexibility and see how the market shakes out before committing to someone. Unfortunately, that's not really Dombrowski's style, so we'll see.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 13, 2016 16:52:09 GMT -5
I wouldn't assume that there will be a huge bidding war for Encarnacion, especially if teams think he is or soon will be a DH-only guy. Most AL teams are some combination of (a) have good DHs already (Mariners, Indians, Astros, Twins), (b) have incumbent options that they can't move (Tigers, Angels), or (c) don't have the payroll to be major players (Rays, Athletics, Royals). The teams that I see maybe being in the hunt for a DH this offseason are the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers and maybe White Sox. But there will also be a pretty significant list of free agent DHs, including Encarnacion, Bautista, Trumbo, Beltran and others (e.g., Napoli, Alvarez, Moss, etc). If some of those teams choose to go cheap at DH (e.g., if the White Sox and/or Yankees decide to do a longer rebuild), the market for Encarnacion might well be almost reasonable. I would add the Mariners and Astros back to your list, in each case as a 1B option. Personally, I think he's either going back to TOR or coming to BOS. |
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2016 17:16:55 GMT -5
If teams think he could be a 1B, that obviously significantly increases the pool of bidders (a number of NL teams could use first basemen, and 1B is otherwise a weak free agent pool). I'd be wary of that, though. The last time he played more than 100 games in the field was 2008, and he's old and has had injury issues in the past.
That said, it's a pretty weak free agent position player cast in general, and the Astros could plan on using him at 1B for a year or two and then move him to DH long-term. But the Mariners have Cruz locked up long-term, and NL teams have nowhere to put him if he can't play 1B, so I think the Astros are really the only team who get added.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2016 18:00:40 GMT -5
DD usually takes the straight, simple approach to resolving conflicts. He does not like complications. Why wouldn't he pay $110M for 5 years to sign EE? It's not much more than what Cherington gave Pablo. And EE will provide Sox with power. My dream line up C Swihart 1B Hanley 2B Pedey 3B Moncada SS Xander LF Beni CF Bradley RF Betts DH Sir Edward Devers waiting on the wings I agree about Dombrowski. Instead of trying to get creative with trades and finding more lineup flexibility, I think he will go with the direct route: David Ortiz 35+ home runs and 120 RBIs; let's find the next closest thing to replace him. And I don't think Dombrowski will show any reluctance to outspend everyone to make sure he gets his guy. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 13, 2016 19:17:50 GMT -5
DD usually takes the straight, simple approach to resolving conflicts. He does not like complications. Why wouldn't he pay $110M for 5 years to sign EE? It's not much more than what Cherington gave Pablo. And EE will provide Sox with power. My dream line up C Swihart 1B Hanley 2B Pedey 3B Moncada SS Xander LF Beni CF Bradley RF Betts DH Sir Edward Devers waiting on the wings Yeah, and where does Devers fit in in your scenario if he's "waiting in the wings"?? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 13, 2016 19:19:46 GMT -5
Put me in the corner that thinks there won't be any major moves this off season, particularly one as big as EE will cost.
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Post by sierram363 on Oct 14, 2016 0:11:56 GMT -5
I'd rather sign Chapman.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 14, 2016 2:17:18 GMT -5
With that said, the Red Sox certainly don't need Encarnacion, and their roster gives them the flexibility and see how the market shakes out before committing to someone. Unfortunately, that's not really Dombrowski's style, so we'll see. Yeah it's gonna be fun when we look back at Dombrowki's tenure in 2022 and think of how much he wasted an organization that included David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Koji Uehara, Rick Porcello, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, Dustin Pedroia, Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart, Steven Wright, Jackie Bradley, Eduardo Rodriguez, Anderson Espinoza, Rafael Devers, and 200 million dollars to spend every year. In two years when they don't have a surplus of 50 million dollars of value provided by Betts and Bogaerts it'll be interesting to see how the roster shakes out. My guess is not well. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 14, 2016 8:34:32 GMT -5
I think a lot of people would have a problem with that because of his domestic abuse. Otherwise, it would be an easier call as he's a weapon out of the pen without draft pick loss attached to him. He will have a ton of bidders, though. |
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Post by tookme55 on Oct 14, 2016 9:02:14 GMT -5
DD usually takes the straight, simple approach to resolving conflicts. He does not like complications. Why wouldn't he pay $110M for 5 years to sign EE? It's not much more than what Cherington gave Pablo. And EE will provide Sox with power. My dream line up C Swihart 1B Hanley 2B Pedey 3B Moncada SS Xander LF Beni CF Bradley RF Betts DH Sir Edward Devers waiting on the wings Yeah, and where does Devers fit in in your scenario if he's "waiting in the wings"?? Devers is at least couple of years away...Hanley will be gone in 3 years, Bradley maybe unsignable or trade bait. There's room in this line up for Devers. |
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 14, 2016 9:12:34 GMT -5
The way I think of it, the Red Sox do not and should not sign a DH. They have a DH already: Hanley Ramirez. If Hanley and Edwin were both free agents would you sign both? No freaking way. You'd sign one and go find a first baseman. That is what the Red Sox need to do. Find a stop gap first baseman. I actually like this thinking. I was always in the "sign EE camp". Maybe Justin Turner or Steve Pearce. I just don't have ANY confidence in Shaw (his WAR was made with 2 good early months). No one knows about Moncada or Pablo. Just too many serious question marks for CI. I know we'll have AB the whole year, but with a probable reduction in Shaw, Leon, maybe JBJ, we may need more of a sure thing to replace Ortiz' production. Also, If you sign Chapman, you'd have to trade Kimbrel as he cannot be en eighth inning guy. |
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Post by costpet on Oct 14, 2016 9:30:03 GMT -5
I would love to have EE, but only for 4 years. I don't care about the money. They have plenty. He's in his 30's and will break down eventually. You never know when. He can platoon with Hadley, so both get their rest. That's a pretty good lineup. Not a lot of weak links. 3B is iffy because it looks like Moncada needs another year in the minors.
I think you'll know right away in Spring Training about Sandy. If he still looks like a nose guard, forget him.
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