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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10
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Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2016 9:48:36 GMT -5
To be fair, the AFL is a hitters' league-- many top pitching prospects skip it to avoid extra wear and tear on their arm. We already knew Kopech was going to be one of the best arms in the AFL (BA's AFL preview mentioned that, for instance). Still an excellent performance there to beat out guys like Frances Martes, and he'll rightfully be ranked high in top 100s, but something to keep in mind.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 8, 2016 11:32:06 GMT -5
Now, Kopech is "the talk of the AFL"* and the "The consensus among scouts is that he's the best pitching prospect in the AFL"**. Has anyone ever seen the word consensus when used in reference to scouts ? * DD ** Callis Generally, the AFL is hitter-heavy because pitchers have mostly gotten their innings in during the season. Consider that of the 21 players on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list assigned to the AFL when those announcements were made, there are only five pitchers including Kopech. Only two were ranked ahead of him, Francis Martes of the Astros (29), and Brent Honeywell of the Rays (39, the other star of the Fall Stars Game). Kopech was 67, followed by David Paulino (70) of Houston and Stephen Gonsalves (85) from the Twins. So consider that while we should be quite happy with how he's doing and scouts' reactions, it's not like that praise from scouts was among a crowded field. As we discussed on the podcast released last night, I've still got Groome ahead of him, but the distance has shrunk considerably and I'm glad the Sox have both.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 13:35:04 GMT -5
You might be alone on that boat, time will tell. We'll see when the BA rankings come out but I'll bet Kopech is considerably ahead of Groome.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 8, 2016 14:07:37 GMT -5
You might be alone on that boat, time will tell. We'll see when the BA rankings come out but I'll bet Kopech is considerably ahead of Groome. Well, the three other members of the brass also have Groome ahead, but perhaps you meant "you" in a more general sense with the site. I think we're all comfortable with it. A couple of us did consider where the flip them, if not all of us. It's funny to me how quickly the excitement about Groome died. We do all remember that he should've gone 1-1 in this draft on talent alone, yes?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 8, 2016 14:28:11 GMT -5
You might be alone on that boat, time will tell. We'll see when the BA rankings come out but I'll bet Kopech is considerably ahead of Groome. Well, the three other members of the brass also have Groome ahead, but perhaps you meant "you" in a more general sense with the site. I think we're all comfortable with it. A couple of us did consider where the flip them, if not all of us. It's funny to me how quickly the excitement about Groome died. We do all remember that he should've gone 1-1 in this draft on talent alone, yes? Need new toy plz.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 8, 2016 14:58:35 GMT -5
You might be alone on that boat, time will tell. We'll see when the BA rankings come out but I'll bet Kopech is considerably ahead of Groome. Well, the three other members of the brass also have Groome ahead, but perhaps you meant "you" in a more general sense with the site. I think we're all comfortable with it. A couple of us did consider where the flip them, if not all of us. It's funny to me how quickly the excitement about Groome died. We do all remember that he should've gone 1-1 in this draft on talent alone, yes? No soxprospects is 100% correct on the rankings. Groome's floor is a mid rotation type of starter at worst imo. Kopech's floor is a reliever. On that fact alone, Groome should be rated higher than Kopech. You guys generally do get it right so I wouldn't sweat it much.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 15:17:10 GMT -5
For me, it's not that I'm any less excited about Groome but I've never had him higher anyways. Watching his first game at Salem pretty much did it for me. The proximity to the majors is the biggest factor now, AA vs low A.
The results in the AFL are also impressive. What blows me away though is the velocity/movement combo on his fastball, the drop on his hard slider (Brooksbaseball called it near 12-6 and the pitch/fx data from the All star game somewhat confirms that and, the swing and miss numbers on his change which really only needs to be show me considering the other two pitches. At 20 he's already throwing Syndergaard's mix with more movement (but less slider velocity). Syndergaard is 4 years older.
Chris, I'll make a $20 Jimmy Fund bet that BA has Kopech higher than Groome by at least 20% of their ranking number. (In the top 100)
ADD: The except Martes and Honeywell (who was also perfect in the All-Star game) part of your argument says a lot. Do you think Groome will be ranked higher than Martes ?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 15:57:58 GMT -5
I'd like Kopech over Groome only because Groom is 18 and has only pitched 6.2 innings as a professional. If his floor is really a 'mid rotation starter' then I can see why he'd be over Kopech, but at such a young age, I'm not buying that as his floor. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs is taking Kopech: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-propspects-chat-205/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 16:12:11 GMT -5
Well, the three other members of the brass also have Groome ahead, but perhaps you meant "you" in a more general sense with the site. I think we're all comfortable with it. A couple of us did consider where the flip them, if not all of us. It's funny to me how quickly the excitement about Groome died. We do all remember that he should've gone 1-1 in this draft on talent alone, yes? Need new toy plz. A bit snarky are we ?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 8, 2016 16:27:04 GMT -5
You might be alone on that boat, time will tell. We'll see when the BA rankings come out but I'll bet Kopech is considerably ahead of Groome. Well, the three other members of the brass also have Groome ahead, but perhaps you meant "you" in a more general sense with the site. I think we're all comfortable with it. A couple of us did consider where the flip them, if not all of us. It's funny to me how quickly the excitement about Groome died. We do all remember that he should've gone 1-1 in this draft on talent alone, yes? Groome pitched 6 2/3 innings this year. He gets an incomplete grade from me as of now. I'm sure it will change quite quickly, but what Kopech has done is very exciting. I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump into the top 20 on a few lists. I mean he actually looks as dominant as Syndegaard when you watch him pitch. Groome is so far away.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2016 17:54:33 GMT -5
Kopech needs a third pitch, simple as that. I don't care how explosive the fastball is. That's not enough to get major league hitters out twice or three times through the order. Until he shows a passable changeup, he's a reliever all the way. But if that's what he becomes, it's fine. There's nothing wrong with having the next Craig Kimbrel in the system, and Kopech has that kind of ability.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 8, 2016 18:09:17 GMT -5
This seems like a pretty big bummer That... seems backwards? Why do you think that? I always thought they drafted them backwards.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 8, 2016 18:29:15 GMT -5
Kopech needs a third pitch, simple as that. I don't care how explosive the fastball is. That's not enough to get major league hitters out twice or three times through the order. Until he shows a passable changeup, he's a reliever all the way. But if that's what he becomes, it's fine. There's nothing wrong with having the next Craig Kimbrel in the system, and Kopech has that kind of ability. Which is exactly why Groome's floor is higher, regardless of lack of experience.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 19:07:24 GMT -5
Kopech needs a third pitch, simple as that. I don't care how explosive the fastball is. That's not enough to get major league hitters out twice or three times through the order. Until he shows a passable changeup, he's a reliever all the way. But if that's what he becomes, it's fine. There's nothing wrong with having the next Craig Kimbrel in the system, and Kopech has that kind of ability. Three pitches would be better, but there are plenty of starting pitchers who have succeeded with only 2 pitches. Here is a quick list from 2014: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/learning-from-the-two-pitch-pitchers/If Kopech learns a solid change-up and keeps his current control, he's an MLB ace. (I'm more concerned with his innings threshold) I really think deepjohn has pushed many here into disliking Kopech as what I read here and what I read everywhere else is vastly different in regards to his current talent and ability. It's possible that you were right and Deepjohn was wrong, but now almost everyone else thinks Deepjohn is right - time to get on board and stop grasping at straws. As far as Groome's talent, that's really not in question by those who think Kopech has passed him. He's still just as talented today as he was 2 months ago, but Kopech has improved by huge strides due to his improvements in control and performance vs top MiLB talent.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 20:16:57 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 9, 2016 0:50:40 GMT -5
How can anyone completely rule out that Kopech won't see time next year when by definition he has at the very least reliever type of stuff? This is the most questionable statement ever made by Klaw.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 9, 2016 1:11:25 GMT -5
Law was totally explicit that he sees Kopech as a starter, though. Doesn't make sense to push the timeline for him as a reliever when he needs the reps as a starter.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 9, 2016 1:40:18 GMT -5
Law was totally explicit that he sees Kopech as a starter, though. Doesn't make sense to push the timeline for him as a reliever when he needs the reps as a starter. Yeah but by late August or September if the Sox need relief help still by that time of the year and Kopech is sitting there with good stats in AA or AAA by that time, doesn't it make sense that Kopech would actually see time in the majors by August/September at the very least?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 9, 2016 1:49:16 GMT -5
He'll be 21 next year. He threw 65 innings in 2015, and he's now at 70 1/3 including the AFL this year. How many innings are you comfortable with him throwing? Maybe the 110-120 range? If you limit his innings early in the season with the thought of using him in the bullpen at the end of the year, you're sacrificing really valuable reps. What Kopech needs, if he's going to start, is outings where he turns over the lineup.
I don't really agree with Law that there is "no chance" Kopech is in the majors in 2017, but I think that's more Law's unique style of tending toward speaking in hyperbolic absolutes. I suppose the counterpoint to that is that Dombrowski tended to be very, very aggressive (I would argue over-aggressive) pushing pitchers to the majors during his time in Detroit.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 9, 2016 2:14:09 GMT -5
He'll be 21 next year. He threw 65 innings in 2015, and he's now at 70 1/3 including the AFL this year. How many innings are you comfortable with him throwing? Maybe the 110-120 range? If you limit his innings early in the season with the thought of using him in the bullpen at the end of the year, you're sacrificing really valuable reps. What Kopech needs, if he's going to start, is outings where he turns over the lineup. I don't really agree with Law that there is "no chance" Kopech is in the majors in 2017, but I think that's more Law's unique style of tending toward speaking in hyperbolic absolutes. I suppose the counterpoint to that is that Dombrowski tended to be very, very aggressive (I would argue over-aggressive) pushing pitchers to the majors during his time in Detroit. Yeah I think 110-120 is a good bet to reach for a goal. 130 being the maximum. He's a big strong kid with a good pitching frame so I think that would be okay. They could skip a couple of starts in AA/AAA in order to help maintain this goal and to have a possibility of him reaching the big leagues and pitch maybe into a postseason roster (hopefully the Sox make it that far).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 9, 2016 4:23:54 GMT -5
He'll be 21 next year. He threw 65 innings in 2015, and he's now at 70 1/3 including the AFL this year. How many innings are you comfortable with him throwing? Maybe the 110-120 range? If you limit his innings early in the season with the thought of using him in the bullpen at the end of the year, you're sacrificing really valuable reps. What Kopech needs, if he's going to start, is outings where he turns over the lineup. I don't really agree with Law that there is "no chance" Kopech is in the majors in 2017, but I think that's more Law's unique style of tending toward speaking in hyperbolic absolutes. I suppose the counterpoint to that is that Dombrowski tended to be very, very aggressive (I would argue over-aggressive) pushing pitchers to the majors during his time in Detroit. Not to nit-pic but he said "almost" no chance not no chance. Small difference but a difference nonetheless that could encompass hypothetical scenarios. I'm hopeful that his development as a starter won't be short changed by being used as a reliever in Boston. There's also the case that (according to the current CBA), any callup before September roster expansion would go towards service time which could delay his entry date in 2017 past the usual 15 days or so. Benintendi has service time, Moncada doesn't.
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Post by ryan24 on Nov 9, 2016 8:06:50 GMT -5
THE MOST IMPORTANT thing here is that the sox manage his innings and quality of starts. There is no real need next year to have kopech as a starter or reliever with the big club. Dave D in Detroit had to move people up quickly because he had no one and needed to win soon. Kopech needs to start learning how to become a pitcher not a thrower. He needs to build up arm strength, get his mind and body working together, and over come adversity without over throwing with his arm. If they do that, then in 2018 they have a very high potential stud pitcher.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 9, 2016 12:09:25 GMT -5
How can anyone completely rule out that Kopech won't see time next year when by definition he has at the very least reliever type of stuff? This is the most questionable statement ever made by Klaw. The words "almost no chance" are not the same as "completely rule out"
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 10, 2016 10:14:39 GMT -5
You can do it deepjohn, we're all rooting for you.
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Post by templeusox on Nov 10, 2016 10:24:52 GMT -5
How can such a declarative statement be made literally 5 months before the season begins? We just witnessed a revolution in reliever usage this postseason. You mean to tell me that the Sox wouldn't consider using Kopech out of the bullpen for 2 months next season? Is that a crazy thing to say about a pitcher starting the year in double-A?
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