MLB Awards: Who Should Win - Who WIll Win

I don't care what any article says.  I've watched enough baseball to know that I would rather have Madon or Francona as my manager in one run games than our current coach.  That article makes it seem as managers in game decisions mean nothing and it's all on the players and luck!  I agree luck plays a part, but a good manager can surely help your team.

KateUpton: Hey @mlb I thought I was the only person allowed to fuck @justinverlander ?! What 2 writers didn't have him on their ballot?

Deserves mention:

Scully awarded Presidential Medal of Freedom
Legendary broadcaster earns nation's highest civilian honor

m.mlb.com/news/article/208993582/vin-scully-to-receive-medal-of-freedom/

My all time favorite broadcaster by a wide margin.

I might point out that those who
a. hold that there is no credit due to managers whose teams have great records in close games and
b. hold that a team underperforming their Pythagorean is evidence of their managers' unfitness

are guilty of what is known as "cognitive dissonance"

That is crazy talk in my opinion.  Do coaches have the same players and do those players perform the same each year?  Telson article talks about Bucks 3 years, were he was good in two years and bad in one. But it never looks at his roster and injuries.  I think good coaches have a real impact, but luck and players still play a big part.

Example Francona is gonna be better in one run games with Miller and Allen, than with just Allen.  I also believe our current coach wouldn't be as good with those two players because he would use them in the traditional sense of 8th and 9th inning guys.  While Francona has no problem bringing Miller in the 6th and 7th inning.

I have no idea what Giradi record in one run games last year was when he had 3 of the best relievers in the game, but if it goes down next year can you really blame the coach or say it was luck?

In general relievers very so much from year to year that I have to believe that's why when you look at data it makes it seem like coaches have very little impact.  A team with a top 5 bullpen could have no player turnover and be bottom 5 the next year.  That being said if you switched Francona with our coach last year I would expect better results.  I'm willing to bet he wouldn't ride Taz and Koji so hard in the first half of the season which led to them getting burnt out.  I'm also willing to bet that he would have relied on guys like Ross and Hembree more.  I also think Francona would handle the bench in a better way and would use more advanced data to get better match up at the plate with the game on the line.

Trout over Mookie. Feelsbadman

Lol

My point, exactly. If it's a "skill," then the manager will, over the course of his career, changing personnel and all, consistently win 1-run games. The much larger sample will reduce noise.

Now, if (and I think this is Don Caballero's argument, which I get, even if I don't fully agree with it), you want to reward someone for just happening to make moves that worked out, even if by luck, go ahead. Ít MOY, not a career award like HOF election. We don't necessarily penalize a player if his career BABIP is .320, and he rips off a .410 season en route to a .360/.450/.600 line. Nor, say, did voters discredit Porcello's results despite a BABIP-against well below career norms.

FWIW, Farrell is 11 games under .500 in his career (6 seasons) against a simple Pythagorean calculation. His first year with Tor (+2) was the only outperformance. So, less than 2 wins/year (not adjusted for the end of 2015). Maybe not surprisingly, his teams in that time have gone 12 games under .500 in 1-run games. Over time, "luck" should cancel itself out, leaving a residual reflective of "skill."

So, if it were one year? Mostly chance. But there's a pattern which is reproducible, here, despite managing two teams and with significant roster turnover.

Personally, I've softened on Farrell. They've had such success with their young players that I can almost accept giving away a couple wins a year, if it means they're getting them back with player development. I actually tend to like the guy when I hear him in press conferences. I guess the question is, if a manager tends to blow a couple of close games each year through questionable decision-making, 1) does he make it up elsewhere, and 2) can you find a guy who does both things well (and others) instead?

Mookie should be congratulated for a tremendous year. However it is no shame to lose the mvp to the best player in baseball!

Trout was incredible this year and incredible without a decent supporting staff.