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Post by jimed14 on Nov 16, 2016 8:26:25 GMT -5
Matt Holiday should be on the poll too. Yeah, the preference for a LHB is strong but not as clear cut as the need to limit any commitment to a year or two. Holliday, Pearce, anyone else? Mike Napoli, I suppose. I'll also include an option for the contrarians, that DDo is wrong to limit the commitment, but I'm not going to itemize names There have been a few articles that indicate that their preference might depend on the new luxury tax threshold. This is why the market is getting held up as well.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 16, 2016 15:12:21 GMT -5
No thanks to Holiday. You can get Pearce for a lot less and even though Pablo was a bum and may very well continue to be at 3rd, he could still hit decent vs righties. If you had him and Pearce as a platoon that would be fine righty/lefty bat. Why waste so much on Holiday? Maybe one year. Again - it should be about the bullpen and Chapman. Or get Jansen and whether it be Jansen or Chapman say goodbye to Kimbrel. How can anyone have been confident going into the playoffs with Kimbrel with what he showed us? Perfect time to unload him is this year. His fatsball still has a lot of value so we can get something good. Have Holt play 3b vs lefties and some righties while giving Shaw limited at bats vs righties at 3b and he'd be our 1b when Hanley or Pearce is getting a blow vs some righties. Maybe by checking his track record both for his career in the playoffs and more importantly his entire career.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2016 14:35:28 GMT -5
"Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats Nov 18 If I had to bet on opening day DH right now my money would be on Luis Valbuena."
5' 10", Weight: 215 lb. 30YO LHH Third Baseman, Second Baseman and First Baseman .260 .357 .459 .816 for HOU last year
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Post by jdb on Nov 19, 2016 16:42:57 GMT -5
"Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats Nov 18 If I had to bet on opening day DH right now my money would be on Luis Valbuena." 5' 10", Weight: 215 lb. 30YO LHH Third Baseman, Second Baseman and First Baseman .260 .357 .459 .816 for HOU last year I'd take that. Is Red Sox stats just a fan or does he have sources? I follow him but don't know anything about him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2016 17:11:46 GMT -5
"Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats Nov 18 If I had to bet on opening day DH right now my money would be on Luis Valbuena." 5' 10", Weight: 215 lb. 30YO LHH Third Baseman, Second Baseman and First Baseman .260 .357 .459 .816 for HOU last year I'd take that. Is Red Sox stats just a fan or does he have sources? I follow him but don't know anything about him. I spent the whole winter two years ago advocating for Valbuena at 3B over Sandoval. But unless they know something Steamer doesn't, this doesn't make a whole lot of sense. A 99 wRC+ projection and a mild platoon split makes him just a bit better than Shaw at the plate (the difference being whatever he'd gain from Fenway), and in the field he has the same projection at 1B / 3B as Sandoval. I don't see where he'd be more than a fractional upgrade. And of course there's no way he'd DH and Hanley would be at 1B instead of the other way around.
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Post by Coreno on Nov 19, 2016 18:32:30 GMT -5
I would be in on picking up Trevor Plouffe and his 122 career OPS+ v LHP.
Hanley/Shaw/Pablo for DH/1B/3B v RHP (or Pablo/Shaw depending on how they look defensively in the spring) CY/Hanley/Plouffe v LHP
I doubt it happens, but after just getting cut, I would imagine he could be had for cheap on a short-term Beltre-type deal.
ADD: His versatility gives you a RHH Brock Holt
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2016 19:44:14 GMT -5
I would be in on picking up Trevor Plouffe and his 122 career OPS+ v LHP. Hanley/Shaw/Pablo for DH/1B/3B v RHP (or Pablo/Shaw depending on how they look defensively in the spring) CY/Hanley/Plouffe v LHP I doubt it happens, but after just getting cut, I would imagine he could be had for cheap on a short-term Beltre-type deal. ADD: His versatility gives you a RHH Brock Holt Steamer projects him to be 3 R/150 better vs. LHP than Sean Rodriguez -- which is to say, 1 run as the small side of a platoon -- but Rodriguez projects to be 3 runs better on defense (+1 vs. -2). Rodriguez is also a much more versatile defender; Plouffe's not an OFer at all (a little bit there in 2011/12) and can't play SS. Furthermore, Steamer's Rodriguez projection seems to regard his 2016 career year as a complete mirage, so they may be under-projecting him. If the cost is low enough, though, Plouffe might be an interesting pick-up in addition to Thames, as an alternative to Rodriguez.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 19, 2016 20:24:29 GMT -5
I agree with eric on Valbuena. Unless we can get rid of Panda- he doesn't hit lefties very well. SO what's the point? He's another corner left bat (we have 3) that doesn't hit lefties well.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2016 20:50:18 GMT -5
Obviously Beltran is Dombrowski's #1 target and he makes the most sense, but if the Yankees do get him back I think Dombrowski will balance getting the best bat available in Encarnacion with his desire not to tie up the DH spot for long with a huge long-term contract.
I think he might bypass Encarnacion and sign another Blue Jays slugger instead - Jose Bautista. Maybe a pillow contract for a year or two.
I'd prefer that the Sox don't lose a draft pick although I don't know if that's something that would deter Dombrowski.
I'd guess Holliday would also be an option and wouldn't cost a pick. I don't see Dombrowski going after a platoon bat like a Moss or Valbuena. I think he wants a guy who can be plugged into the middle of the order. It's a huge step down from Ortiz to Valbuena.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2016 21:14:52 GMT -5
I would be in on picking up Trevor Plouffe and his 122 career OPS+ v LHP. Hanley/Shaw/Pablo for DH/1B/3B v RHP (or Pablo/Shaw depending on how they look defensively in the spring) CY/Hanley/Plouffe v LHP I doubt it happens, but after just getting cut, I would imagine he could be had for cheap on a short-term Beltre-type deal. ADD: His versatility gives you a RHH Brock Holt Steamer projects him to be 3 R/150 better vs. LHP than Sean Rodriguez -- which is to say, 1 run as the small side of a platoon -- but Rodriguez projects to be 3 runs better on defense (+1 vs. -2). Rodriguez is also a much more versatile defender; Plouffe's not an OFer at all (a little bit there in 2011/12) and can't play SS. Furthermore, Steamer's Rodriguez projection seems to regard his 2016 career year as a complete mirage, so they may be under-projecting him. If the cost is low enough, though, Plouffe might be an interesting pick-up in addition to Thames, as an alternative to Rodriguez. Unless Rodriguez turned a corner last year, which seems unlikely, he seems like a Brock Holt lite. I finally checked out his stats because you just keep bringing him up and I was very disappointed. He didn't hit lefties well in 2015 and his numbers look like Holt's, outside last year. Sure he plays a ton of positions, but we have Holt. His best defensive position is 2B, he basically league average at 1B and 3B. I just don't see it. Only way it makes sense is if we get his bat from last year, but that sure looks like a career year he's likely not to produce again.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 20, 2016 0:55:51 GMT -5
I'd kinda like to see the Sox put a feeler out on Javy Baez. He's still pretty raw, and his stock has improved after a rough 2015, but he might not be prohibitively costly. I really don't have a good handle on what it would take to get him, but I think he's poised for a big power bump and some continued improvement as an overall hitter. There'd be a positional issue, obviously, although moving Shaw would alleviate that to a degree. Baez has a cannon and is capable of playing SS. That would give them a chance to "rest" Bogey some, and provide insurance against an injury and, down the road, FA. Baez also could potentially play OF (RF, moving Mookie to CF if they traded JBJ) and again, provides some insurance if, say, Pedroia got hurt and they needed to move Betts back to 2b. Pedroia probably has 3-4 quality years left, at diminishing performance, so again, its insurance down the road as well. Moncada seems ticketed for third in the short term, but he's probably an OF. And Devers is probably two years away. By that time, JBJ will be pushing FA (along with Bogaerts), and Baez would be entering his historical prime at 25-26. Not sure how realistic or viable it is, but I think the Sox have a nice draft approach with taking up-the-middle players and sorting them as needed. I think, for the right guys, that that approach would work for young, not-quite-established MLBers too. I'm reasonably confident that Baez can still become essentially what JBJ was as a hitter this past year: a .270-.300/20-30HR/.800-.850 OPS player who steals enough bags to provide some additional value. His SS ability provides some key added value as well. Random thought, but Baez is extremely talented, and still very young. I think his 2.7 fWAR this past year is a lot closer to floor than ceiling.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 20, 2016 1:17:08 GMT -5
Steamer projects him to be 3 R/150 better vs. LHP than Sean Rodriguez -- which is to say, 1 run as the small side of a platoon -- but Rodriguez projects to be 3 runs better on defense (+1 vs. -2). Rodriguez is also a much more versatile defender; Plouffe's not an OFer at all (a little bit there in 2011/12) and can't play SS. Furthermore, Steamer's Rodriguez projection seems to regard his 2016 career year as a complete mirage, so they may be under-projecting him. If the cost is low enough, though, Plouffe might be an interesting pick-up in addition to Thames, as an alternative to Rodriguez. Unless Rodriguez turned a corner last year, which seems unlikely, he seems like a Brock Holt lite. I finally checked out his stats because you just keep bringing him up and I was very disappointed. He didn't hit lefties well in 2015 and his numbers look like Holt's, outside last year. Sure he plays a ton of positions, but we have Holt. His best defensive position is 2B, he basically league average at 1B and 3B. I just don't see it. Only way it makes sense is if we get his bat from last year, but that sure looks like a career year he's likely not to produce again. Yeah, I'm not sure what to think of Rodriguez. He had a solid 2014 (his BA was killed by an awful BABIP, out of line with career norms) and his IsoP bump has shown signs of being real. He became a lot more patient/selective last year, as evidenced by the combined bump in BB rate and K rate. His hard-hit rate went WAY up, essentially only at the "expense" of weak contact, while overall contact down some (suggesting selling out for power), but he swung at fewer pitches outside the zone. So there's a change in approach that suggests some of his development is real. But, yeah, he's getting older, so I'm not sure that it's all that sustainable. It looks like he saw a fair number more sliders as well, so there may have been a league adjustment on his "book," although that would also suggest that he'll need to counter-adjust. I'm partially convinced with him, and I still like Thames. Regardless, I'd like to see the Sox stick to mid-tier or flier/pillow-contract FAs given their depth, the likelihood that their offense is still outstanding, and a good chance their pitching is sufficiently improved enough to maintain their run differential.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 20, 2016 1:17:50 GMT -5
Todd Frazier. Anyone interested in him as a option?
He kind of seems like Mark Trumbo with better defense and only has one year left of control.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2016 12:45:37 GMT -5
Steamer projects him to be 3 R/150 better vs. LHP than Sean Rodriguez -- which is to say, 1 run as the small side of a platoon -- but Rodriguez projects to be 3 runs better on defense (+1 vs. -2). Rodriguez is also a much more versatile defender; Plouffe's not an OFer at all (a little bit there in 2011/12) and can't play SS. Furthermore, Steamer's Rodriguez projection seems to regard his 2016 career year as a complete mirage, so they may be under-projecting him. If the cost is low enough, though, Plouffe might be an interesting pick-up in addition to Thames, as an alternative to Rodriguez. Unless Rodriguez turned a corner last year, which seems unlikely, he seems like a Brock Holt lite. If that was the case he would have floated away on the breeze by now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2016 15:08:53 GMT -5
Unless Rodriguez turned a corner last year, which seems unlikely, he seems like a Brock Holt lite. If that was the case he would have floated away on the breeze by now. Not his size, his hitting haha.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2016 15:13:52 GMT -5
Todd Frazier. Anyone interested in him as a option? He kind of seems like Mark Trumbo with better defense and only has one year left of control. No, everything seems to be going down, but his HRs. Even his D started to slip last year. Maybe he can bounce back, but I'm not trading a bunch of prospects for him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2016 16:29:55 GMT -5
Todd Frazier. Anyone interested in him as a option? He kind of seems like Mark Trumbo with better defense and only has one year left of control. I'll run the numbers later, but I'm pretty sure he projects to be a bit less good than a Shaw / Rodriguez or Shaw / Plouffe platoon. You would need some reason to think he'd bounce way back. He hits a lot of HRs but makes a ton of outs, and his defense took a big hit last year, and he now projects as +0 or +1. It's worth reminding folks of what the needs actually are. The lineup needs a LHB who can hit 5th, because JBJ is too streaky and Sandoval needs to re-establish himself. There's really no need for another significant RHB when you're pencilling in Xander to hit 6th. He'd be top or middle of the order almost everywhere else. Overall, the weak positions are 1B versus RHP, and 3B versus LHP. If Thames has a chance to hit 5th, you've got: Pedroia Benintendi (could be 3) Betts (could be 2) Ramirez ThamesBogaerts Bradleycatcher Sandoval
5-7-9 can be re-arranged. You don't need to get a guy who definitely can hit 5, just a guy who might be able to, giving you three shots at it (JBJ reducing slump length, Panda bouncing back big). If none of those guys pan out, X hits 5th, Bradley still hits 7th, and Sandoval or Thames hits 6th. That gives you 2 LHB in a row, but following 3 RHB, and if they bring in a LHP to pitch to Sandoval or Thames, they get Young. If you hit JBJ 6th, he'll face a ton of LHR (you could hit him 6th or when he's hot, however).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2016 17:17:41 GMT -5
If that was the case he would have floated away on the breeze by now. Not his size, his hitting haha. I know but their career numbers are pretty much the same (91 OPS+ for both). The biggest difference is that Rodriguez has some power and pronounced platoon splits, whereas Holt is basically all contact and doesn't really have major splits.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2016 18:17:46 GMT -5
Not his size, his hitting haha. I know but their career numbers are pretty much the same (91 OPS+ for both). The biggest difference is that Rodriguez has some power and pronounced platoon splits, whereas Holt is basically all contact and doesn't really have major splits. Rodriguez OPS+ of 126 last year raised his career numbers, if you remove that Holt has been a lot better. Two schools of thought he turned a corner or it was just a career year. I'm very leery that he's going to be as good as he was in 2016, who knows maybe. But his OPS was 154 points higher than any other season, he by far had his highest average, on base% and Slugging. Career numbers even with Rodriguez huge year; .234 .303 .390 and .693. Holt .272 .332 .373 .705. I'm sorry but for me Holt is clearly a better hitter, even with Rodriguez huge year inflating his numbers. Remove last year and it would look huge. Now everyone keeps saying get Rodriguez as a guy to hit lefties at 3B and 1B, his numbers are .249 .344 .411 .755. Holt is .272 .342 .342 .709. Now his numbers look better, but again are inflated by an ops of .934 last year. In 2015 for example he had an OPS of .655 against lefties. So unless Rodriguez turned a corner he is not a better hitter than Holt and certainly not someone that I want platooning at 3B and 1B. If we get the 2016 version sure sign me up, but that just seems unlikely.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2016 19:32:47 GMT -5
I know but their career numbers are pretty much the same (91 OPS+ for both). The biggest difference is that Rodriguez has some power and pronounced platoon splits, whereas Holt is basically all contact and doesn't really have major splits. Rodriguez OPS+ of 126 last year raised his career numbers, if you remove that Holt has been a lot better. Two schools of thought he turned a corner or it was just a career year. I'm very leery that he's going to be as good as he was in 2016, who knows maybe. But his OPS was 154 points higher than any other season, he by far had his highest average, on base% and Slugging. Career numbers even with Rodriguez huge year; .234 .303 .390 and .693. Holt .272 .332 .373 .705. I'm sorry but for me Holt is clearly a better hitter, even with Rodriguez huge year inflating his numbers. Remove last year and it would look huge. Now everyone keeps saying get Rodriguez as a guy to hit lefties at 3B and 1B, his numbers are .249 .344 .411 .755. Holt is .272 .342 .342 .709. Now his numbers look better, but again are inflated by an ops of .934 last year. In 2015 for example he had an OPS of .655 against lefties. So unless Rodriguez turned a corner he is not a better hitter than Holt and certainly not someone that I want platooning at 3B and 1B. If we get the 2016 version sure sign me up, but that just seems unlikely. Single season numbers vs. LHP are meaningless because the sample size is so small. Even a career's worth of numbers usually has to be adjusted for luck. Rodriguez definitely hits LHP better than either Shaw, Sandoval, or Holt. How much better indeed depends on how much of last year was for real. He did play for a team that has a track record of creating permanent improvements in pitchers, via tweaks to approach. It's certainly believable that they could do that for a hitter.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2016 23:59:26 GMT -5
Rodriguez OPS+ of 126 last year raised his career numbers, if you remove that Holt has been a lot better. Two schools of thought he turned a corner or it was just a career year. I'm very leery that he's going to be as good as he was in 2016, who knows maybe. But his OPS was 154 points higher than any other season, he by far had his highest average, on base% and Slugging. Career numbers even with Rodriguez huge year; .234 .303 .390 and .693. Holt .272 .332 .373 .705. I'm sorry but for me Holt is clearly a better hitter, even with Rodriguez huge year inflating his numbers. Remove last year and it would look huge. Now everyone keeps saying get Rodriguez as a guy to hit lefties at 3B and 1B, his numbers are .249 .344 .411 .755. Holt is .272 .342 .342 .709. Now his numbers look better, but again are inflated by an ops of .934 last year. In 2015 for example he had an OPS of .655 against lefties. So unless Rodriguez turned a corner he is not a better hitter than Holt and certainly not someone that I want platooning at 3B and 1B. If we get the 2016 version sure sign me up, but that just seems unlikely. Single season numbers vs. LHP are meaningless because the sample size is so small. Even a career's worth of numbers usually has to be adjusted for luck. Rodriguez definitely hits LHP better than either Shaw, Sandoval, or Holt. How much better indeed depends on how much of last year was for real. He did play for a team that has a track record of creating permanent improvements in pitchers, via tweaks to approach. It's certainly believable that they could do that for a hitter. If you take out Rodriguez great year against lefties last year and Holt's very poor year they are VERY close in OPS with Holt having a huge advantage in average and Rodriguez having an advantage in slugging. Projecting who will hit lefties better next year, it's in no way clear that Rodriguez will be better. Even if he's better it's go ing to be by a very small margin. He's not a Chris Young type player, not even close. You say single season numbers against lefties is meaningless and I agree, but Rodriguez last season is what makes him seem like he's a lefty killer. I don't see the point of getting a lefty specialist that has a career .755 OPS against lefties, even after a huge 2016. I mean Travis Shaw has a higher OPS against lefties than Rodriguez for his career. Adding Holliday at DH, with Ramirez at first and Holt at third is going to better than Ramirez at DH, Rodriguez at 1B or 3B and either Sandoval, Shaw or Holt at the other position. Holliday kills lefties to the tune of an .897 OPS against lefties for his career.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 29, 2016 9:07:43 GMT -5
Eric Thames off the table - he got a three year deal from the Brewers. Seems like a good bet to be an upgrade from Chris Carter.
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Post by Costigan on Nov 29, 2016 9:21:43 GMT -5
Eric Thames off the table - he got a three year deal from the Brewers. Seems like a good bet to be an upgrade from Chris Carter. Solid move for a rebuilding club like Milwaukee.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 29, 2016 10:09:04 GMT -5
Eric Thames off the table - he got a three year deal from the Brewers. Seems like a good bet to be an upgrade from Chris Carter. Solid move for a rebuilding club like Milwaukee. Yep. At 3/$15M (plus an option) and without a better alternative they can take the risk his game doesn't translate. If it pans out and the team moves closer to contending, great. If he plays well but the team still stinks that's a very, very tradable contract.
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Post by jmei on Nov 29, 2016 10:56:54 GMT -5
Would have loved Thames, but suspected all along that Dombrowski would prefer more of a known quantity. I think he'll end up signing one of Beltran/Encarnacion/Bautista.
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