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Post by brendan98 on Dec 4, 2016 15:21:22 GMT -5
.848 OPS and 21 HR's in 299 AB's vs RHP last year for Alvarez. I don't think he is our best option, but if he could repeat that with Young as the RH half of a platoon, that wouldn't be so bad. I do think Fenway vs Camden Yards might hurt Alvarez'' numbers a little.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 4, 2016 18:52:27 GMT -5
Heyman is a shill for Boras. There's likely nothing to the rumor other than the Sox doing due diligence. Words like "has emerged as another name on the Boston Red Sox radar" can probably be used with every free agent.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 4, 2016 19:28:20 GMT -5
Holliday to the Yankees.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 4, 2016 22:59:20 GMT -5
I am glad Holliday didn't sign here
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 5, 2016 1:11:36 GMT -5
Holliday had some very good years, but the best numbers were in Colorado and they are a little suspect with a glaring disparity between home and away values, really dramatic. Those leveled out significantly once he went to the Cardinals, not surprisingly. Spending time in NL Central hitter's parks in Chicago, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati, did those splits good: he raked in and out of St. Louis.
He had two very good, and two good years there, but there has been a sharp drop off over the last three. Holliday's OPS+, which is park adjusted, is a classic bell-shaped curve over his career. He's at the tail-end of that curve these days. It's not a bad move by NY as they rebuild. It gives them a name to throw out there during the rebuild, and Girardi is very good at using the talent he has. But expecting much out of Matt Holliday is probably a mistake. His best days are in the rear-view mirror, so they may look closer than they actually are.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2016 4:20:31 GMT -5
I should redo the table from the last page, which assumes they sign Plouffe to platoon with Sandoval at 3B and either send Shaw to AAA or keep him as the 26th guy. If they end up platooning Sandoval and Shaw at 3B, then that raises the bar across the board.
If they sign Alvarez instead of Plouffe, you're upgrading Shaw's bat vs. RHP to Alvarez, which might well be substantial. But you're downgrading 3B defense vs. RHP, downgrading 3B offense against LHP, downgrading 1B defense, downgrading Hanley's offensive contribution, and reducing overall bench flexibility. I could run the numbers, but it looks like break even to me.
With Eric Thames to the Brewers for 3 years, I'm not sure there's an option better than Plouffe. Maybe Pearce, but he wouldn't be worth the money.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 5, 2016 10:37:34 GMT -5
I should redo the table from the last page, which assumes they sign Plouffe to platoon with Sandoval at 3B and either send Shaw to AAA or keep him as the 26th guy. If they end up platooning Sandoval and Shaw at 3B, then that raises the bar across the board. If they sign Alvarez instead of Plouffe, you're upgrading Shaw's bat vs. RHP to Alvarez, which might well be substantial. But you're downgrading 3B defense vs. RHP, downgrading 3B offense against LHP, downgrading 1B defense, downgrading Hanley's offensive contribution, and reducing overall bench flexibility. I could run the numbers, but it looks like break even to me. With Eric Thames to the Brewers for 3 years, I'm not sure there's an option better than Plouffe. Maybe Pearce, but he wouldn't be worth the money. Unfortunately Plouffe doesn't seem to be the best compliment to Sandoval. He's below average defensively and has fairly neutral platoon splits. The upgrade on offense is only slightly more than the downgrade defensively if he replaces Shaw. They could of course get both Alvarez and Plouffe which would add strong depth, but it would leave the Red Sox without a 3b defensive replacement on days Shaw is in Pawtucket. It feels like we're getting pretty deep into the bargain bin now. Hopefully a reasonable trade comes around at the winter meetings.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 5, 2016 16:31:48 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo When asked what they thought Red Sox Plan B was after Beltran signing, one MLB exec surmised "Sandoval" I don't want to live on this planet anymore I think they under estimate the power of the (Dombrowski trading) Force. Guys, you do realize we're trading any prospect not named Kopech or Benny for Miggy? No? I trust that comes as no surprise to anyone here, not named jmei or jimed. (and even they will be feigning surprise for the sake of argument.) Papi made 16. But you would have paid him 22 to stay. Miggy makes 6 more than the 22. Luxury tax cap went up by 6. That's pretty much a wash. Done.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 5, 2016 17:04:05 GMT -5
I think they under estimate the power of the (Dombrowski trading) Force. Guys, you do realize we're trading any prospect not named Kopech or Benny for Miggy? No? I trust that comes as no surprise to anyone here, not named jmei or jimed. (and even they will be feigning surprise for the sake of argument.) Papi made 16. But you would have paid him 22 to stay. Miggy makes 6 more than the 22. Luxury tax cap went up by 6. That's pretty much a wash. Done. ...so the Sox take on $212 million in guaranteed contract money, and trade away, say, Moncada, Devers and Groome along with some of their position players, say Vazquez and Holt??? Help me out here.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 5, 2016 17:16:02 GMT -5
Guys, you do realize we're trading any prospect not named Kopech or Benny for Miggy? No? I trust that comes as no surprise to anyone here, not named jmei or jimed. (and even they will be feigning surprise for the sake of argument.) Papi made 16. But you would have paid him 22 to stay. Miggy makes 6 more than the 22. Luxury tax cap went up by 6. That's pretty much a wash. Done. ...so the Sox take on $212 million in guaranteed contract money, and trade away, say, Moncada, Devers and Groome along with some of their position players, say Vazquez and Holt??? Help me out here. Well, how much excess value is in the Miggy contract? (i.e., what would he get as an FA now?) I actually haven't looked at that. A quick argument hot take could be made that he's undervalued by 90 million. But we've seen with other trades, that's what would be at the core of the calculation. Then look at which of our prospects have flat or even declining prospect values, at today's valuation. Those would be on the table. (guessing it's too soon to evaluate Groome). Discount for risk of bust, and add those up to Miggy's excess value. Boom.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 17:25:45 GMT -5
Cabrera is great and all, but the length of his contract as well as the money he's owed is just too much. I expect him to still be a top 1B for the next several years, but what happens during the last few years of his contract? He'll be making 30-32M for the rest of his contract, excluding this year when he'll make 28M. Does anyone really think he'll be worth that much for the back end of his contract?
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 5, 2016 17:28:19 GMT -5
Cabrera is great and all, but the length of his contract as well as the money he's owed is just too much. I expect him to still be a top 1B for the next several years, but what happens during the last few years of his contract? He'll be making 30-32M for the rest of his contract, excluding this year when he'll make 28M. Does anyone really think he'll be worth that much for the back end of his contract? Just depends on how much MLB revenues keep going up. Right now revenues are great and getting better, as the NFL plummets. The new CBA just magically happened, because there is a rapidly expanding pie of revenue. Project that out for 7 years and Miggy is a bargain with excess value.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2016 17:56:27 GMT -5
Death. Taxes. deepjohn hot takes.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 5, 2016 18:02:51 GMT -5
Death. Taxes. deepjohn hot takes. Add... and jmei's hot take that my opinions are hot takes.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 18:07:40 GMT -5
Cabrera is great and all, but the length of his contract as well as the money he's owed is just too much. I expect him to still be a top 1B for the next several years, but what happens during the last few years of his contract? He'll be making 30-32M for the rest of his contract, excluding this year when he'll make 28M. Does anyone really think he'll be worth that much for the back end of his contract? Just depends on how much MLB revenues keep going up. Right now revenues are great and getting better, as the NFL plummets. The new CBA just magically happened, because there is a rapidly expanding pie of revenue. Project that out for 7 years and Miggy is a bargain with excess value. I understand the point you're trying to make, but I definitely think that the last 2-3 years of his contract could be a huge problem for the Sox. Sure, he'll probably have excess value for at least a couple more years, but then what? His last 3 years are going to cost 94M. I know we have been spoiled by Papi putting up elite numbers all the way until 40 years old, but how many guys are worth 30M per year from ages 38-40?
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 5, 2016 18:14:31 GMT -5
Just depends on how much MLB revenues keep going up. Right now revenues are great and getting better, as the NFL plummets. The new CBA just magically happened, because there is a rapidly expanding pie of revenue. Project that out for 7 years and Miggy is a bargain with excess value. I understand the point you're trying to make, but I definitely think that the last 2-3 years of his contract could be a huge problem for the Sox. Sure, he'll probably have excess value for at least a couple more years, but then what? His last 3 years are going to cost 94M. I know we have been spoiled by Papi putting up elite numbers all the way until 40 years old, but how many guys are worth 30M per year from ages 38-40? I think that's fundamentally correct in general. Position player free agent signings for aging players have become hard to justify, especially in the later years. But this was not a free agent signing, and the question is, what would the free agent market have been now? If it would have been more, given the increase in projected revenues, and the increase in salary caps, than there could actually be excess value in this particular case. Also, as you suggest, Miggy may look like the kind of player who holds his value well as he ages, not dependent on speed or traits that decline with age. And (as you suggest) the Red Sox may have some inside knowledge about keeping a player like Miggy (i.e., Papi) healthy as he ages.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 18:23:02 GMT -5
I understand the point you're trying to make, but I definitely think that the last 2-3 years of his contract could be a huge problem for the Sox. Sure, he'll probably have excess value for at least a couple more years, but then what? His last 3 years are going to cost 94M. I know we have been spoiled by Papi putting up elite numbers all the way until 40 years old, but how many guys are worth 30M per year from ages 38-40? I think that's fundamentally correct in general. Position player free agent signings for aging players have become hard to justify, especially in the later years. But this was not a free agent signing, and the question is, what would the free agent market have been now? If it would have been more, given the increase in projected revenues, and the increase in salary caps, than there could actually be excess value in this particular case. Also, as you suggest, Miggy may look like the kind of player who holds his value well as he ages, not dependent on speed or traits that decline with age. And (as you suggest) the Red Sox may have some inside knowledge about keeping a player like Miggy (i.e., Papi) healthy as he ages. That's certainly a possibility. I suppose at this point, assuming the Sox would be willing to trade for him, there's two things to wonder about. What would we have to give up, and how much of the contract will Detroit cover? I think that's where negotiations would stall, as I think the Sox would want a sizable part of his contract tract to be covered, and I also don't see them wanting to trade any of their top 5 prospects. Edit: just to be clear, I was not suggesting the Sox know a way to help players who are that age. What I meant was that Ortiz is an anomaly, who just put up arguably the best season ever for a 40 year old.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 5, 2016 19:48:36 GMT -5
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 20:29:05 GMT -5
Looking good, Pablo. I hope he succeeds this year. I'll be the first to admit that I was totally wrong about him being done.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2016 20:45:12 GMT -5
Wow Sandoval looks to be in great shape, might be the reason DD isn't that worried about adding a bat.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 5, 2016 20:52:27 GMT -5
The panda looks like puma.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 5, 2016 21:07:48 GMT -5
Pablo is looking good. Like so many I've written him off, but I'd love to see a Lackey 2.0 in him. Comparing in the sense that after two lackluster seasons he comes back and becomes a big contributor in 2017.
And then they trade him to clear payroll for the 2018 season, just not for Allen Craig, and Moncada becomes a stud.
It could all happen? yes? no? maybe? perhaps? possibly? plausibly?
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Post by telson13 on Dec 6, 2016 0:03:11 GMT -5
I understand the point you're trying to make, but I definitely think that the last 2-3 years of his contract could be a huge problem for the Sox. Sure, he'll probably have excess value for at least a couple more years, but then what? His last 3 years are going to cost 94M. I know we have been spoiled by Papi putting up elite numbers all the way until 40 years old, but how many guys are worth 30M per year from ages 38-40? I think that's fundamentally correct in general. Position player free agent signings for aging players have become hard to justify, especially in the later years. But this was not a free agent signing, and the question is, what would the free agent market have been now? If it would have been more, given the increase in projected revenues, and the increase in salary caps, than there could actually be excess value in this particular case. Also, as you suggest, Miggy may look like the kind of player who holds his value well as he ages, not dependent on speed or traits that decline with age. And (as you suggest) the Red Sox may have some inside knowledge about keeping a player like Miggy (i.e., Papi) healthy as he ages. It's exponentially worse than a FA signing. It's doubtful that, at his age, Cabrera would get that deal on the FA market. And to top it off, they get the pleasure of financially hamstringing the team by obliterating its youth. In three years, when Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, and ERod (or whoever is left) is looking for their $15-30M per year, the Sox will already be stuck with a bloated contract for Miggy (whose defense, already atrocious, will almost certainly get worse, if that's even possible), and no minor league system to speak of...meaning no low-cost starters. This is an early-2000s Yankees move. It's horrible. I'd have no problem taking on Cabrera's contract, but not if it costs much of anything in return. He's going to be 34 next spring. He's not the healthiest fellow. He might put up a couple more 4 to 5-WAR seasons, but beyond 37, when he's a DH only, he'll be lucky to crack 3.5. People talk about FA WAR equivalents, but at $8M per, you'd have to drop $400M for a Championship-caliber team. You've gotta save $200M somewhere, and this trade proposal makes that essentially impossible.
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Post by jimmydugan on Dec 6, 2016 1:53:03 GMT -5
I'd like to ask a question to the posters who are more statistically inclined than i..
Let's say the Sox enter 2017 with a Pablo/C. Young platoon.. Sandoval is clearly a bit of a wild card. If Young has to be the main DH for the first half of the year, is it possible to estimate how he'd fare against RHP in Fenway?
I know he's below average against RHP, but he's also got the batted ball profile for the park. I could look at his numbers in Fenway vs. righties, but is there a better way to go about it?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 6, 2016 3:03:25 GMT -5
I'd like to ask a question to the posters who are more statistically inclined than i.. Let's say the Sox enter 2017 with a Pablo/C. Young platoon.. Sandoval is clearly a bit of a wild card. If Young has to be the main DH for the first half of the year, is it possible to estimate how he'd fare against RHP in Fenway? I know he's below average against RHP, but he's also got the batted ball profile for the park. I could look at his numbers in Fenway vs. righties, but is there a better way to go about it? I think any answer would be debatable, but I'd recommend looking at his batted ball data and judge for yourself. If you follow this link you will find all kinds of useful info (just search for 'young'): baseballsavant.mlb.com/player
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