No issues with this at all. Thornburg is very good, cost no money and will give another big arm in the pen.
Now can focus on adding a bat and DH. Subtracting Shaw opens up a spot.
Doesn't open up any salary though. Also pins Panda as your full-time 3rd baseman, and eliminates your back-up/day off 1st baseman with Travis still recovering from ACL surgery (and not having a full year at AAA). Some significant work left to do after this move.
I don't believe they needed to add Pennington. I echo they previous sentiments that they should have got a lottery ticket back aswell. This does open up a huge chunk of money that they were going to allot to a FA RP to go elsewhere.
I wonder if this puts them in the 3B market now. Do they truly trust Sandoval? I wonder if they'll go after a Luis Valbuena type player now. He doesn't seem to have a huge market for him at this point and has had 3 solid years of offensive production to go along with solid defense and defensive versatility. Thoughts?
I like the trade overall. The Red Sox got a potentially dominant late-inning arm in exchange for a few fringe MLB players. However, as has been pointed out, the Red Sox lately have been trading multiple prospects for one piece. They aren't getting those "throw-in" players. With all the talent the Red Sox have traded over the last year (Margot, Guerra, Espinosa), it's puzzling that they haven't gotten a solid utility player out of it. As Chris Hatfield pointed out in the last podcast, sometimes the throw-in guy turns into Brock Holt.
Like I said, I'm not losing sleep over the trade or anything...but these three-for-one or four-for-one trades make me scratch my head sometimes...
We will see. I wouldn't write off Panda yet. This is shaping up to have the potential to work out like the Lackey signing did. The good news is he did have an injury and he's not old so a decent bounce back isn't out of the question. Won't take a lot to replace Shaw.
I'm not concerned about who they gave up as much as I am about who they got.
Haven't read any analysis of this one yet, but this seems like a pretty hefty overpay.
ADD: Thornburg was really good last year, but before that, he was pretty mediocre, and he's historically had injury issues. If last year's velo bump and dramatic increase in whiff rate carries over, maybe it's only a slight overpay. If he regresses somewhat, it's a larger overpay. In my mind, Shaw (who has more team control) and a flyer like Pennington would be fair value, and they overpaid by a Dubon (which isn't a huge overpay, but is a significant one in my mind, especially since I've always been a huge Dubon fan).
Three for one seems a lot, but elite relief pitching is an expensive market these days and arguably this is a favorable trade for Boston. We've lost a little depth but gained a top tier 7th inning guy.
Trade value aside (which I think is, generally, fair but riskier than I love), the projected backup middle infielder right now is Deven Marrero. Dubon was important depth.
Wouldn't Marco Hernandez and even Holt count as backup middle infield options? Or even Moncada, if we're talking second base?
I dislike trades of multiple assets for relievers -- the Sox always seem to lose these deals -- but the Sox clearly needed another shutdown guy and are apparently under cost constraints. Thornburg had a monster year last year and has three years of control remaining. How much does any reliever striking out over 12 per nine innings with that many years of control left fetch on the trade market at the deadline?
If we assume DD can't really spend any money, then he's done a good job putting together a shutdown 8-9 combination without sacrificing anything terribly important to our present or our future. The big risk here is that Shaw figures it out and becomes a 30-homer third baseman, but he probably wasn't going to get that shot here anyway.
Probably an overpay, but it's not like the Sox are giving up any huge pieces. I just hope he doesn't end up like one of the many relievers who came to Boston and then got hurt or played terribly (Bailey, Melancon, Hanrahan, Smith.)
Smith came as a rookie with concerns of an injury waiting to happen becuase of his mechanics. I said when the trade happened even if he missed a year to Tommy John it was worth it because he was under control and cheap for 5 years.
As a child little did you know when you picked up a baseball it would grip you for life.
Look at Thornburg's track record. Poor control (3.7 BB/9), extreme flyball pitcher (36 GB%), and moderate strikeout #'s (9K/9). And another exclusively 1 inning reliever. In short, he's a poor-man's Kimbrel (which is no compliment). Sure, he had an impressive spike in K's last year (12/9); maybe that's sustainable, maybe it's not. This is not an elite relief pitcher. It's not hard to see where this goes wrong. Dombrowski has traded no less than 7 players for 2 poor-control, 1 inning relievers. It's sickening.
Derelict Dave will not be satisfied until he has a top 5 payroll team that wins 86 - 90 games per year, with a bottom 5 farm system.
Lol, this is a little harsh. I think the deal is ok, if Thornburg holds up. Last I read, he was due for Tommy John at some point. You do get him for three years. Don't really like giving up Pennington, but hey - an organization that doesn't really value prospects as much as they used to, you're just relieved they didn't give up Groome or something.
I've got to say, you've got to admire how systematically Dombrowski goes about eviscerating the Boston Red Sox farm system. It's a beautiful thing to see, if you're into that kind of thing.
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2016 10:50:36 GMT -5
Sox gave up a little too much here, but not much based on the market. A platoon CI, a second division ss or ut. and a light prospect. For a cost controlled 8th inning guy in his prime that is all the rage currently. If he can stay healthy and come close to what he was last yr for the next 3 years then it is a win. Love the future look of the pen. Thornburg, Kelly and Smith healthy going into the playoffs next yr could be dominating. Or it could just implode like most of the time the Sox load up in the pen.
Now DD has to go out and get another platoon guy for the corners.
I see a lot of stuff about how Shaw and Dubon are "bench players." That reflects a far too haphazard view of the importance of good bench players. Even if Shaw maxes out at, say, a 1.0 to 1.5 win player, having that player on your bench is super, super valuable. Those guys don't grow on trees, especially guys with some defensive flexibility (Shaw has played 1B/3B/LF), and comparable players get paid $6-8M a year (think the Chris Youngs and Sean Rodriguezes of the world). Having five years (I think?) of cheap team control of a guy like that is not something you should be giving away.