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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2016 23:01:00 GMT -5
Syndergaard never went above 3 BB/9 in his minor league career, averaging around 2.7. Kopech has never been under 3 BB/9 with an average of 4.6 - so far. They are not the same. That said, Kopech has plenty of time to figure it out. The Sox certainly traded (not gave) away some talent. But right now he's not close to having Syndergaard's repertoire or command. Actually, it's the reverse, Syndergaard has never had Kopech's streaks of insane brilliance, recently, a streak of 1 BB and 21 Ks in the AFL. And Syndergaard, even now, does not have the insanely brilliant pitchf/x data that Kopech already has. Actually, nobody in MLB has it. Kopech's lapses of command for consecutive games, after streaks in which he had been perfect, can be seen, statistically and medically, as backwards diagnosed dead-arm, normal for a 20 year old. The loss of Kopech for almost nothing, maybe a few WAR upgrade... there are no words. What curse could I possibly utter upon the utter greed and stupidity of ownership willing to trade this generational brilliance for advanced ticket sales and short term TV ratings? A pox on all your houses, Henry, Werner and Luchino. Slow down. Kopech doesn't even have a third pitch right now. It's an exciting arm, no doubt, but a lot of possible outcomes with that arm.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 8, 2016 23:26:24 GMT -5
Sale... almost nothing... 😕
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 8, 2016 23:33:49 GMT -5
Sale... almost nothing... 😕 As measured by the confidence level in an upgrade over the range of expected WAR the team already had. See the post a few above. Sale is more a publicity stunt for the advanced sale of tickets.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 8, 2016 23:35:52 GMT -5
Sale... almost nothing... 😕 Well, in his defense, it's probably about 10 WAR over what they had, for three years. If you take into account the $63M it took to acquire Moncada (which you kind of have to, since they'll never recoup any excess value to make it up), they're paying Sale a market-rate $33-35M a year. In the grand scheme of things, they're really not getting that much back beyond a big name and 2-4 more wins a year (which they could easily have gotten elsewhere, without the prospect cost).
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Post by telson13 on Dec 8, 2016 23:51:49 GMT -5
Not when it's coupled with losing Ortiz. Is Ortiz really gone? Last I heard, he was "thinking." I'm 99% sure he was being tongue-in-cheek, but wouldn't that be awesome...one more go-around?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 9, 2016 0:01:35 GMT -5
Is Ortiz really gone? Last I heard, he was "thinking." I'm 99% sure he was being tongue-in-cheek, but wouldn't that be awesome...one more go-around? I wouldn't a Pedro or Clemens like return where he comes back midseason.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 9, 2016 0:14:38 GMT -5
Was this trade necessary? No. Does it immediately make the Sox better? Yes.
I thought this was a fair trade. I think Moncada will be a great player who is a semi frequent all star, and I think Kopech will at the very least become an elite closer. But right now, I'm willing to forget about them and focus on their chance to win the world series.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 9, 2016 6:15:03 GMT -5
[...] Sale is more a publicity stunt for the advanced sale of tickets. Is this the most wrong anyone has ever been on this board? Or on the internet?
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Post by borisman on Dec 9, 2016 7:45:56 GMT -5
I'm 99% sure he was being tongue-in-cheek, but wouldn't that be awesome...one more go-around? I wouldn't a Pedro or Clemens like return where he comes back midseason. As soon as Hanley tears a hamstring in June Papi will be back
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Post by awall on Dec 9, 2016 8:11:40 GMT -5
so. much. algebra.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 9, 2016 8:34:41 GMT -5
Agree with some that this trade is at least a wash, not a win. The thing is that we definitely have a "window" now. Moncada/Kopech should be productive ML'ers in a year or 2, but that will shorten that window.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2016 9:10:45 GMT -5
What we do know about Dave is he's not afraid to deal. What-else we know about him is he's NOT reckless. He traded great prospects for great proven MLB players. He also traded for ones that are still in their primes and still have team control so they were not push your chips in and give yourself one chance type moves.
You want to know why he kept Devers? Because, he's unique from what they had and what they have on the roster. He's a young corner power bat. The only one in the system big leagues or majors and he happens to be really really good.
You want to know why they traded Guerra last year? Because they had Xander and Pedroia making Guerra useless at the big league level other than if their was an injury.
Margot? Because of JBjr and Betts plus the fact they had AB rated more highly than him and a safety net in Basabe. Well they kept AB and let him play his way onto the team. Now they have an outfield of 3 young all-star type players. So that made Basabe useless to the major league team for the next 3+ years. So you either deal him or keep him for depth.
Espinoza and Kopech were dealt because they needed pitching to make a legit run for Papi (AE) and because Chris freaking Sale became available. Furthermore the team still has Groome in the minors as a potential front line starter. They also Have a stacked rotation under team control for many years. On top of Groome as a potential young top line starter they already have one in their rotation who's 23 that they believe strongly in.
Moncada is the somewhat outlier here but again he was dealt for Chris Sale and he's kind of the quintessential boom or bust guy. That K rate is down right scary and he's not a great defensive player by any stretch, in fact he's got to work hard to be a passable defensive guy with a great bat.
I'll reiterate, Dave kept AB. He kept the young major league players on their roster and he kept Devers because he's unique and not a duplicate. With the exception of Moncada, you can make a strong case that all the other guys were dealt from a position of major league strength.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2016 9:53:01 GMT -5
I find it somewhat amusing and irritating at the same time when I read posts calling Sale a minor upgrade over what the Sox already have in the rotation. Like he is only worth 2-4 wins more per season. How do you come to that conclusion when we are talking about a guy on track for the HOF? A pitcher who is universally considered top 5 in all of baseball and the Sox will be getting him in his prime for cheap, unheard of. This is where analytics sometimes gets it wrong if that is all you are basing your opinion on. The Sox are going to be in the playoffs every year for a while unless catastrophic injuries take place, correct? That would be the general consensus. How valuable does Sale look now in that rotation going into the playoffs in comparison to the current 3,4,5 in said rotation? How much of an impact does he have on the rest of the Staff? There were 6 starters in all of MLB last year with 220+ innings pitched and 3 of them are now on the Sox. Not only are they innings eaters they are Cy Young candidates. In fact Porcello and Sale combined for 184 1,2,3 innings last year, pretty sure the 2 leaders in the league. How does that affect the bullpen? I think the Sox win 100 games next year. Is that hyperbole? Maybe maybe not but I have been watching the Sox closely for over 40 years and have not seen a better roster during that time. In fact I'm not sure it is even close.
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Post by Coreno on Dec 9, 2016 11:23:20 GMT -5
Literally the first time I've ever seen Chris Sale, a guy who has never won a CY or pitched a playoff game, mentioned in the same sentence as the Hall of Fame.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2016 11:30:10 GMT -5
Literally the first time I've ever seen Chris Sale, a guy who has never won a CY or pitched a playoff game, mentioned in the same sentence as the Hall of Fame. It's hard to argue he's not on track for that considering his first 5 years. A lot can happen so there's still a better chance than not he won't end up in the Hall but his first 5 years if repeated will likely put him there Cy Young win or not.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2016 11:48:41 GMT -5
Literally the first time I've ever seen Chris Sale, a guy who has never won a CY or pitched a playoff game, mentioned in the same sentence as the Hall of Fame. 31.1 bWAR and four top-five CYA finishes through age 27. Third on the career K/9 rankings. There's obviously a lot that can go wrong between there and Cooperstown but he is roughly on that track. There are four pitchers under 30 with a 20.0 bWAR or higher: Kershaw (52.7), Sale, Bumgarner (25.2), Quintana (20.5).
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2016 11:49:34 GMT -5
Literally the first time I've ever seen Chris Sale, a guy who has never won a CY or pitched a playoff game, mentioned in the same sentence as the Hall of Fame. First 5 years as a starter, age 23-27, one of the top 5 pitchers in all MLB before he even gets to what are considered the prime years. Yes a lot can happen but he is certainly on track so far.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 9, 2016 13:00:48 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2016 14:12:48 GMT -5
Literally the first time I've ever seen Chris Sale, a guy who has never won a CY or pitched a playoff game, mentioned in the same sentence as the Hall of Fame. I think Chris Sale is an excellent pitcher. Hated losing Moncada, but I understand the deal, but Chris Sale isn't Pedro Martinez in his prime. He's more comparable to David Price actually, which is still a good thing. Who knows? If Sale keeps doing what he's doing maybe there is a Cy Young award or perhaps even the HOF is a possibility. The two things I worry about him are: an injury, which is a problem for most pitchers, and that delivery worries me. He has excellent control. His only issues are that he surrenders the long ball, a function of throwing strikes. If that increases a bit or the control wanes a little bit, he could find himself pitching to an ERA of around 4. I wouldn't be surprised if he got injured or he pitched kind of like the 2016 version of David Price. You look at Beckett, Porcello, and Pedro and they all struggled in their first season with the Red Sox, although Pedro's "struggles" in 1998 would be a Cy Young award caliber season if replicated by Sale.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2016 14:39:19 GMT -5
Well who is Pedro in his prime? Koufax? Kershaw numbers are insane sure but look at Pedro compared to both league average and the second best guy that 4-5 year stretch. He did it in the steroid era and made people look silly. Trying to compare someone to Pedro's prime is a fools errand. If that was standard for HOF there wouldn't be many people in it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2016 15:14:01 GMT -5
Well who is Pedro in his prime? Koufax? Kershaw numbers are insane sure but look at Pedro compared to both league average and the second best guy that 4-5 year stretch. He did it in the steroid era and made people look silly. Trying to compare someone to Pedro's prime is a fools errand. If that was standard for HOF there wouldn't be many people in it. Exactly! For me the only guy that's near Pedro in his prime is Kershaw. It's not fair to compare guys to Pedro, he might be the most dominant pitcher we'll ever see.
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Post by Coreno on Dec 9, 2016 15:38:49 GMT -5
For the record, I wasn't saying Sale isn't ever going to the HoF. It was just the first I had ever heard his name in that type of conversation, not because of lack of talent, but because of lack of duration and accolades.
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Post by lifesox on Dec 9, 2016 16:19:16 GMT -5
I get it that we all love prospects and that we now have advanced statistics that enable us to quantify impact. I know losing prospects hurt, but here is my take. Let me know what I am missing:
1. Dombrowski has not been shy to trade prospects throughout his career but he has been right way more frequently than he has been wrong. 2. He has spent quite a bit of time on the farm system and despite pressure, did not trade the four B's who are in Boston and the only true "can't miss" prospects everyone has been asking for. 3. As much as we pat ourselves on the back about our farm system -- it has only been great on one side of the ball. We wouldn't have to trade prospects if we had developed any big league caliber pitching talent over the past several years 4. Especially after losing Ortiz, unless we upgraded our team (and pitching specifically), we weren't going to win any World Series anytime soon 5. Chris Sale is a huge get -- is there another pitcher we could have landed who comes anywhere close to his value 6. As great as Moncada may be, last September showed (and AFL performance confirmed) he certainly isn't ready for the big leagues yet. Very different than Benintendi. And Kopech is still very raw.
My question to all of you -- If you didn't want DD to make this deal, then what did you want him to do? And if the answer is nothing, how do we plan to win the World Series.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 9, 2016 16:37:33 GMT -5
I get it that we all love prospects and that we now have advanced statistics that enable us to quantify impact. I know losing prospects hurt, but here is my take. Let me know what I am missing: 1. Dombrowski has not been shy to trade prospects throughout his career but he has been right way more frequently than he has been wrong. 2. He has spent quite a bit of time on the farm system and despite pressure, did not trade the four B's who are in Boston and the only true "can't miss" prospects everyone has been asking for. 3. As much as we pat ourselves on the back about our farm system -- it has only been great on one side of the ball. We wouldn't have to trade prospects if we had developed any big league caliber pitching talent over the past several years 4. Especially after losing Ortiz, unless we upgraded our team (and pitching specifically), we weren't going to win any World Series anytime soon 5. Chris Sale is a huge get -- is there another pitcher we could have landed who comes anywhere close to his value 6. As great as Moncada may be, last September showed (and AFL performance confirmed) he certainly isn't ready for the big leagues yet. Very different than Benintendi. And Kopech is still very raw. My question to all of you -- If you didn't want DD to make this deal, then what did you want him to do? And if the answer is nothing, how do we plan to win the World Series. Easy, you stay the course. Pass on Moreland and let Brentz start the year as DH. Unless you don't trade Shaw then that's your DH. The playoffs aren't important yet. The Sox make it? Great. Personally I was mad when Ben was fired because he was great at stocking the farm with amazing top end prospects and DD destroyed that in 1 calendar year. Never would have made the Kimbrel Pomeranz Thornburg or Sale trades. All DD was on the losing end. Wouldn't have minded seeing Price Hanley Porcello and Pablo start the season and then dealing them at the deadline for elite prospects. Or just someone to take on Pablo's deal. Honestly look at this core it's young and homegrown. You should be adding to it not subtracting. Moncada is a future MVP and Espinoza is a future ace. To trade these guys and future probable all stars like Margot is awful.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2016 16:48:32 GMT -5
Literally the first time I've ever seen Chris Sale, a guy who has never won a CY or pitched a playoff game, mentioned in the same sentence as the Hall of Fame. 31.1 bWAR and four top-five CYA finishes through age 27. Third on the career K/9 rankings. There's obviously a lot that can go wrong between there and Cooperstown but he is roughly on that track. There are four pitchers under 30 with a 20.0 bWAR or higher: Kershaw (52.7), Sale, Bumgarner (25.2), Quintana (20.5). Another 8 years or so of what he's doing and he's a shoe-in.
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