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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 0:12:57 GMT -5
Over the last decade and a half, the average return on investment in veteran for prospect deals, when financial considerations are added in, is approximately 2.5 to 1 (i.e. On average teams acquiring prospects have received approximately 2.5 future wins for each present win traded). If one assumes that 8.5 seasons of Sale/Kimbrel/Pomeranz is worth 20 WAR, then one should assume the prospects traded by the Red Sox over the last calendar year have a probable value of 50 WAR. If this number seems high, it isn't. It would really only require that two of the players traded become impact players, not even superstars. If even one of them were to become Moookie Betts, 50 WAR would be virtually a fait accompli. Unless you believe the price paid by the Red Sox was significantly more or less than the average market value of the players acquired, this would seem to be the most probable future value of the players traded. That's just an average of all trades over time. Too many confounding co-variables. It can hardly be said to be predictive of the Sale trade, which, in your terms, is very likely to turn out to be the worst trade in history. Here you were trading a guy who may give you 15 WAR for two guys who are very likely to give you 60 WAR. That's a 4 to 1 ratio. That doesn't even take into account for excess value, or how good the players being replaced are. The ratio jumps to about 10 to 1, when those things are accounted for. This was purely a desperation play to get under the tax cap. You'll see Buchholz's salary dumped next, and they'll just squeak under. It's also, I think, a manipulation of the fanbase to make them think the team is doing something good, when in fact it just hemorrhaged away its future. Even winning three world series would prove nothing, because they could have won as previously constituted. Post seasons turn on random events. You get lucky or you don't.
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Post by redsoxfan12 on Dec 10, 2016 1:17:05 GMT -5
First post here hopefully it's not too bad: I think there is an overreaction to this trade. Yes we no longer have a top farm system but I think its naive to believe it will stay like this. Excluding Benintendi from the prospects list, we still have two legit prospects in Devers and Groome. Devers is considered one of the best power hitting bats in the minors and Groome was considered the consensus number one pick leading up to the draft. Dombrowski was an Weei on Wednesday I believe and he said the Sox will be "very aggressive" July 2nd comes around (I believe this is the last year before the new rules set in). Between their aggressiveness with international free agents, recent history of drafting and possible trades I don't believe the system will be bad for long. They might find trouble making deals at the deadline this year but I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox quickly climb back to a top 10-15 farm system. That along with the youth already on the roster, I really don't agree with posters saying the window is now shorten to only a couple years
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2016 1:29:33 GMT -5
Over the last decade and a half, the average return on investment in veteran for prospect deals, when financial considerations are added in, is approximately 2.5 to 1 (i.e. On average teams acquiring prospects have received approximately 2.5 future wins for each present win traded). If one assumes that 8.5 seasons of Sale/Kimbrel/Pomeranz is worth 20 WAR, then one should assume the prospects traded by the Red Sox over the last calendar year have a probable value of 50 WAR. If this number seems high, it isn't. It would really only require that two of the players traded become impact players, not even superstars. If even one of them were to become Moookie Betts, 50 WAR would be virtually a fait accompli. Unless you believe the price paid by the Red Sox was significantly more or less than the average market value of the players acquired, this would seem to be the most probable future value of the players traded. What do you mean when you say when financial considerations are added in?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2016 1:40:41 GMT -5
Over the last decade and a half, the average return on investment in veteran for prospect deals, when financial considerations are added in, is approximately 2.5 to 1 (i.e. On average teams acquiring prospects have received approximately 2.5 future wins for each present win traded). If one assumes that 8.5 seasons of Sale/Kimbrel/Pomeranz is worth 20 WAR, then one should assume the prospects traded by the Red Sox over the last calendar year have a probable value of 50 WAR. If this number seems high, it isn't. It would really only require that two of the players traded become impact players, not even superstars. If even one of them were to become Moookie Betts, 50 WAR would be virtually a fait accompli. Unless you believe the price paid by the Red Sox was significantly more or less than the average market value of the players acquired, this would seem to be the most probable future value of the players traded. That's just an average of all trades over time. Too many confounding co-variables. It can hardly be said to be predictive of the Sale trade, which, in your terms, is very likely to turn out to be the worst trade in history. Here you were trading a guy who may give you 15 WAR for two guys who are very likely to give you 60 WAR. That's a 4 to 1 ratio. That doesn't even take into account for excess value, or how good the players being replaced are. The ratio jumps to about 10 to 1, when those things are accounted for. This was purely a desperation play to get under the tax cap. You'll see Buchholz's salary dumped next, and they'll just squeak under. It's also, I think, a manipulation of the fanbase to make them think the team is doing something good, when in fact it just hemorrhaged away its future. Even winning three world series would prove nothing, because they could have won as previously constituted. Post seasons turn on random events. You get lucky or you don't. Is your 60 wars for a career or just team controlled years?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 10, 2016 2:29:07 GMT -5
Henry wants to win. It's as simple as that. All this analysis seems to miss the big picture. The guy is riding high in the stock market and he can see that we should be in win now mode with all the core talent on this team and he got the GM who who get the job done. Even I, a person who usually over values prospects, like this deal because it positions us to win now. DD goes into the winter with a plan and things fly right and left until he gets it done. Theo would have come back from the winter meetings moaning about how the value wasn't there. Cherington would have been compiling his prospect list every day. DD takes the hits but focuses on the task at hand. Win baby win. Right now, he's the general we need in this war.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 2:47:53 GMT -5
That's just an average of all trades over time. Too many confounding co-variables. It can hardly be said to be predictive of the Sale trade, which, in your terms, is very likely to turn out to be the worst trade in history. Here you were trading a guy who may give you 15 WAR for two guys who are very likely to give you 60 WAR. That's a 4 to 1 ratio. That doesn't even take into account for excess value, or how good the players being replaced are. The ratio jumps to about 10 to 1, when those things are accounted for. This was purely a desperation play to get under the tax cap. You'll see Buchholz's salary dumped next, and they'll just squeak under. It's also, I think, a manipulation of the fanbase to make them think the team is doing something good, when in fact it just hemorrhaged away its future. Even winning three world series would prove nothing, because they could have won as previously constituted. Post seasons turn on random events. You get lucky or you don't. Is your 60 wars for a career or just team controlled years? Yeah, I'm saying, if they don't bust, top prospects can give you 5 WAR per year over six years, so 30 WAR each. But it is true that it is usually back-loaded. I think Kopech races up the list from 89 all the way to the top 10 or 15, ahead of Espinoza, in the next lists, which usually come out in February. He might be right there with Giolito. The Nats were offering #3 Giolito (plus #33 Robles/#59 Lopez) and Hahn went with Kopech (plus #1 Yoan and unrated).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2016 3:39:03 GMT -5
Is your 60 wars for a career or just team controlled years? Yeah, I'm saying, if they don't bust, top prospects can give you 5 WAR per year over six years, so 30 WAR each. But it is true that it is usually back-loaded. I think Kopech races up the list from 89 all the way to the top 10 or 15, ahead of Espinoza, in the next lists, which usually come out in February. He might be right there with Giolito. The Nats were offering #3 Giolito (plus #33 Robles/#59 Lopez) and Hahn went with Kopech (plus #1 Yoan and unrated). Sure top prospects can give you 5 wars a year for 6 years, it's just very unlikely. Look at our past top prospects, Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley and Swihart. Only Betts looks like he'll give you 5 plus wars a year on average. As good as Pedroia has been, he didn't give you 30 wars in his first 6 years. The amount of top 20 prospects that will give you 30 plus wars in first 6 years s very low. The odds both Moncada and Kopech do is crazy low. I think Kopech is 15-20, but I could see 10-15. Hahn took our deal for these reasons in my Book. In our package the top guy was a positional prospect with a higher ceiling that was close to major league ready. We offered the best prospect Moncada. Giolito sure seems to be overrated at this point, tons of people are down on him. Our overall package was better. Basabe is a better third piece than Dunning if he was in deed the third piece in the Sale offer. I also think Kopech upside, along with Moncada was much more appealing than Giolito and Robles was.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 3:56:45 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm saying, if they don't bust, top prospects can give you 5 WAR per year over six years, so 30 WAR each. But it is true that it is usually back-loaded. I think Kopech races up the list from 89 all the way to the top 10 or 15, ahead of Espinoza, in the next lists, which usually come out in February. He might be right there with Giolito. The Nats were offering #3 Giolito (plus #33 Robles/#59 Lopez) and Hahn went with Kopech (plus #1 Yoan and unrated). Sure top prospects can give you 5 wars a year for 6 years, it's just very unlikely. Look at our past top prospects, Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley and Swihart. Only Betts looks like he'll give you 5 plus wars a year on average. As good as Pedroia has been, he didn't give you 30 wars in his first 6 years. The amount of top 20 prospects that will give you 30 plus wars in first 6 years s very low. The odds both Moncada and Kopech do is crazy low. I think Kopech is 15-20, but I could see 10-15. Hahn took our deal for these reasons in my Book. In our package the top guy was a positional prospect with a higher ceiling that was close to major league ready. We offered the best prospect Moncada. Giolito sure seems to be overrated at this point, tons of people are down on him. Our overall package was better. Basabe is a better third piece than Dunning if he was in deed the third piece in the Sale offer. I also think Kopech upside, along with Moncada was much more appealing than Giolito and Robles was. Well, it is backloaded, but a quick look says Pedroia was 28 or so in his first six full years of cost-control. Too early to say for Betts and Bogaerts, but it looks like it will be close to 30. I don't have the lists from back then but I don't remember Bradley (#50) and Swihart (#18) being elite top 10 prospects, though good ones. Sale is an example of an elite prospect that gives you 30 WAR in his first six years. Pointofpittsburgh has the spreadsheet for this, and they say all top 10 prospects, including busts and near busts, average out to 15 WAR. But I'm adding the assumption that Moncada and Kopech actually hit. Assuming they do hit, then the average should be closer to 30 (maybe a little less but hey, I'm rounding to the nearest 10).
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Post by thursty on Dec 10, 2016 4:30:13 GMT -5
Look, Xander Bogaerts has accumulated 9.4 fWAR in 3+ seasons. He has 3 seasons left under team control.
He would need to average 6.9 WAR per season in order to reach career 30 WAR. The odds of him achieving that? Zero.
The odds that Kopech and Moncada put up a combined 30 WAR each in their team controlled years? Let's put it this way, you'd have better odds playing the lotto
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2016 7:40:22 GMT -5
Another 8 years or so of what he's doing and he's a shoe-in. .... and not if he repeats 2016. It's substantially worse than 2012 through 2015. Maybe it was the framing, but his curveballs outside the zone were being called for balls more often. It showed, and his results in xFIP and hard contact were significantly lower on the leaderboard, only top 15, as opposed to top 5. Rumors are that his arm is not as young as it used to be, and the White Sox traded high, very high. Do you have a source for this rumor that Chris Sales arm is older than it used to be?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 10, 2016 7:58:14 GMT -5
This may be my last post for a while. What very few people seem to be considering is that this trade upgraded what was already a huge strength. Sale projects to be a 4.6 bWAR pitcher, using a simple 3-2-1 weighting of his last 3 years. (That, plus an age adjustment, has done a terrific job of projecting free-agent SP contracts in the past.) Clay Buchholz projects to be 0.7 using the same 3-2-1 method. That may well be conservative, and possibly hugely so. Steven Wight last year had 24 starts instead of 30 because of a pinch-running injury. I think it's fair to pro-rate his bWAR up to 30 starts, which makes him a 2.6 WAR pitcher. That excludes the fact that he got hammered in his post-injury start attempts. It's conservative, too. A 6th starter can make 20 starts in a typical year, but we can call that 16 and be close enough to get a ballpark figure. So in his three years here, Sale is upgrading: 1/2 year Wright + 1/2 year Buchholz (2017) 1/2 year Wright + 1/2 year Owens (2018). Assuming they don't extend Pomeranz ... 1/2 year Kopech (?) + 1/2 year Owens (2019) One year of Sale instead of Wright is 2 wins. What do you think Owens will be in 2018 / 2019? I think 1.6 wins per full season is reasonable and maybe conservative (he was that good in his 2015 cup of coffee). That's 3 wins of upgrade. A half year of Sale instead of Buchholz is 2 wins, but it may well be 1. It's hard to project who else will be in the SP mix by 2019, but given that Johnson, Groome, and Kopech were all candidates, it's hard to project the other starter besides Owens in 2019 (after a front four of Price, Porcello, E-Rod, and Wright) being much below 1.6 bWAR / season, which is MLB 4thh starter territory. So half a year of that is another 1.5 wins of upgrade. That gives you 7.5 wins over 3 years. Call it 2 to 3 wins per year, but I think it's closer to 2 than 3. However, by 2018 you were hoping that Yoan Moncada was going to upgrade 3B. By how many wins? Michael Kopech looked like a guy who could be a serious upgrade in the bullpen starting in 2018 or earlier. How many wins is that? When you factor in the hopes for Moncada and Kopech after the ASB this year, I think this is a 2 win upgrade for this year and a 0-1 win upgrade for 2018 and 2019. 1) Is 2 extra wins going to make or break us this year? Is 1 extra win going to do that for 2018 and 2019? 2) Would you give up years 3 through 6 of control of Moncada and Kopech to get that? This would be a great, ballsy trade if we were looking at crap for the 5th and 6th starters. It would be a brilliant trade if we were also projecting to finish 2nd by 2 games. But we had an All-Star as our 5th starter and a guy who was one of the two or three best pitchers in MLB in 2015 as the 6th starter. And we were already division favorites. Stats should be used to come to a conclusion not the justify an opinion. You, of all people, used a simple weighted 3-2-1 formula to calculate his projected WAR but failed to adjust for the huge difference in the catchers he will see in Boston vs. Chicago. I'd be surprised that as above average as the Sox catchers are if that isn't how below average the bleached Sox are. You've been beating that drum far too long to just out of the blue ignore it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 10, 2016 8:01:47 GMT -5
I think some you need to rewatch some Chris Sale highlights to remind yourselves that this really isn't such a bad deal. In fact I'll provide them for you-
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Dec 10, 2016 8:05:23 GMT -5
It really feels like some people are just looking for a reason to hate this trade. It's ridiculous that anyone would say Sale is only a publicity stunt to get more ticket sales. Are you kidding me? Put aside your biases here. Sale is unquestionably one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball since the start of 2012. What team would not want him pitching at the front of their rotation? Obviously the cost was steep, there's no doubt about that. But instead of dwelling on what Moncada and Kopech could potentially become (I personally hope they still thrive in the majors and have great careers), we should focus on how stacked this team is for a world series run for the next several years. It's not bias when looking at the objective cost-risk-benefit analysis. It just isn't. And the reasons why have been elucidated ad nauseum. Maybe deepjohn's post is hyperbolic, but that doesn't mean, stripping away the exaggeration, that it isn't true. Yeah, and if I say 3 + 5 = 11 and you "strip away the exaggeration" you can pretend I said 3 + 5 = 8.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2016 8:33:26 GMT -5
This may be my last post for a while. What very few people seem to be considering is that this trade upgraded what was already a huge strength. Sale projects to be a 4.6 bWAR pitcher, using a simple 3-2-1 weighting of his last 3 years. (That, plus an age adjustment, has done a terrific job of projecting free-agent SP contracts in the past.) Clay Buchholz projects to be 0.7 using the same 3-2-1 method. That may well be conservative, and possibly hugely so. Steven Wight last year had 24 starts instead of 30 because of a pinch-running injury. I think it's fair to pro-rate his bWAR up to 30 starts, which makes him a 2.6 WAR pitcher. That excludes the fact that he got hammered in his post-injury start attempts. It's conservative, too. A 6th starter can make 20 starts in a typical year, but we can call that 16 and be close enough to get a ballpark figure. So in his three years here, Sale is upgrading: 1/2 year Wright + 1/2 year Buchholz (2017) 1/2 year Wright + 1/2 year Owens (2018). Assuming they don't extend Pomeranz ... 1/2 year Kopech (?) + 1/2 year Owens (2019) One year of Sale instead of Wright is 2 wins. What do you think Owens will be in 2018 / 2019? I think 1.6 wins per full season is reasonable and maybe conservative (he was that good in his 2015 cup of coffee). That's 3 wins of upgrade. A half year of Sale instead of Buchholz is 2 wins, but it may well be 1. It's hard to project who else will be in the SP mix by 2019, but given that Johnson, Groome, and Kopech were all candidates, it's hard to project the other starter besides Owens in 2019 (after a front four of Price, Porcello, E-Rod, and Wright) being much below 1.6 bWAR / season, which is MLB 4thh starter territory. So half a year of that is another 1.5 wins of upgrade. That gives you 7.5 wins over 3 years. Call it 2 to 3 wins per year, but I think it's closer to 2 than 3. However, by 2018 you were hoping that Yoan Moncada was going to upgrade 3B. By how many wins? Michael Kopech looked like a guy who could be a serious upgrade in the bullpen starting in 2018 or earlier. How many wins is that? When you factor in the hopes for Moncada and Kopech after the ASB this year, I think this is a 2 win upgrade for this year and a 0-1 win upgrade for 2018 and 2019. 1) Is 2 extra wins going to make or break us this year? Is 1 extra win going to do that for 2018 and 2019? 2) Would you give up years 3 through 6 of control of Moncada and Kopech to get that? This would be a great, ballsy trade if we were looking at crap for the 5th and 6th starters. It would be a brilliant trade if we were also projecting to finish 2nd by 2 games. But we had an All-Star as our 5th starter and a guy who was one of the two or three best pitchers in MLB in 2015 as the 6th starter. And we were already division favorites. I think people are severely under-rating the playoff implications of this trade. First, it solidifies their chances of making them but beyond that, it makes their chances of winning a playoff series a lot greater. They added a legit game changer. Sure it's true the best rotation doesn't always win in the post season but having the additional top Arm to give yourself advantage over most teams Or allow you to March up with a healthy Cleveland or the Cubs is big.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Dec 10, 2016 10:02:57 GMT -5
Sure top prospects can give you 5 wars a year for 6 years, it's just very unlikely. Look at our past top prospects, Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley and Swihart. Only Betts looks like he'll give you 5 plus wars a year on average. As good as Pedroia has been, he didn't give you 30 wars in his first 6 years. The amount of top 20 prospects that will give you 30 plus wars in first 6 years s very low. The odds both Moncada and Kopech do is crazy low. I think Kopech is 15-20, but I could see 10-15. Hahn took our deal for these reasons in my Book. In our package the top guy was a positional prospect with a higher ceiling that was close to major league ready. We offered the best prospect Moncada. Giolito sure seems to be overrated at this point, tons of people are down on him. Our overall package was better. Basabe is a better third piece than Dunning if he was in deed the third piece in the Sale offer. I also think Kopech upside, along with Moncada was much more appealing than Giolito and Robles was. Well, it is backloaded, but a quick look says Pedroia was 28 or so in his first six full years of cost-control. Too early to say for Betts and Bogaerts, but it looks like it will be close to 30. I don't have the lists from back then but I don't remember Bradley (#50) and Swihart (#18) being elite top 10 prospects, though good ones. Sale is an example of an elite prospect that gives you 30 WAR in his first six years. Pointofpittsburgh has the spreadsheet for this, and they say all top 10 prospects, including busts and near busts, average out to 15 WAR. But I'm adding the assumption that Moncada and Kopech actually hit. Assuming they do hit, then the average should be closer to 30 (maybe a little less but hey, I'm rounding to the nearest 10). Could you and your checkbook come over to my house tonight to play some blackjack for $? Please.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 12:16:26 GMT -5
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 12:31:15 GMT -5
This may be my last post for a while. What very few people seem to be considering is that this trade upgraded what was already a huge strength. Sale projects to be a 4.6 bWAR pitcher, using a simple 3-2-1 weighting of his last 3 years. (That, plus an age adjustment, has done a terrific job of projecting free-agent SP contracts in the past.) Clay Buchholz projects to be 0.7 using the same 3-2-1 method. That may well be conservative, and possibly hugely so. Steven Wight last year had 24 starts instead of 30 because of a pinch-running injury. I think it's fair to pro-rate his bWAR up to 30 starts, which makes him a 2.6 WAR pitcher. That excludes the fact that he got hammered in his post-injury start attempts. It's conservative, too. A 6th starter can make 20 starts in a typical year, but we can call that 16 and be close enough to get a ballpark figure. So in his three years here, Sale is upgrading: 1/2 year Wright + 1/2 year Buchholz (2017) 1/2 year Wright + 1/2 year Owens (2018). Assuming they don't extend Pomeranz ... 1/2 year Kopech (?) + 1/2 year Owens (2019) One year of Sale instead of Wright is 2 wins. What do you think Owens will be in 2018 / 2019? I think 1.6 wins per full season is reasonable and maybe conservative (he was that good in his 2015 cup of coffee). That's 3 wins of upgrade. A half year of Sale instead of Buchholz is 2 wins, but it may well be 1. It's hard to project who else will be in the SP mix by 2019, but given that Johnson, Groome, and Kopech were all candidates, it's hard to project the other starter besides Owens in 2019 (after a front four of Price, Porcello, E-Rod, and Wright) being much below 1.6 bWAR / season, which is MLB 4thh starter territory. So half a year of that is another 1.5 wins of upgrade. That gives you 7.5 wins over 3 years. Call it 2 to 3 wins per year, but I think it's closer to 2 than 3. However, by 2018 you were hoping that Yoan Moncada was going to upgrade 3B. By how many wins? Michael Kopech looked like a guy who could be a serious upgrade in the bullpen starting in 2018 or earlier. How many wins is that? When you factor in the hopes for Moncada and Kopech after the ASB this year, I think this is a 2 win upgrade for this year and a 0-1 win upgrade for 2018 and 2019. 1) Is 2 extra wins going to make or break us this year? Is 1 extra win going to do that for 2018 and 2019? 2) Would you give up years 3 through 6 of control of Moncada and Kopech to get that? This would be a great, ballsy trade if we were looking at crap for the 5th and 6th starters. It would be a brilliant trade if we were also projecting to finish 2nd by 2 games. But we had an All-Star as our 5th starter and a guy who was one of the two or three best pitchers in MLB in 2015 as the 6th starter. And we were already division favorites. Stats should be used to come to a conclusion not the justify an opinion. You, of all people, used a simple weighted 3-2-1 formula to calculate his projected WAR but failed to adjust for the huge difference in the catchers he will see in Boston vs. Chicago. I'd be surprised that as above average as the Sox catchers are if that isn't how below average the bleached Sox are. You've been beating that drum far too long to just out of the blue ignore it. Well, the excellent framing that Sale had in 2014 and 2015 may have made the 3-2-1 projection way too high. Sale got the second best support from framing in MLB in 2015. and then the second worst in 2016. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-chris-sales-numbers-fell-off-a-cliff/Red Sox don't have anyone who framed as well as Tyler Flowers did, before he was non-tendered. Also, framing is still a theory in its early stages. Umpires know about framing and can, in principle, react to it. Sale's curveballs may be getting called tighter because of the now exposed effects of framing.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2016 12:32:16 GMT -5
Oh lord
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2016 12:49:27 GMT -5
Don't. Feed. The. Trolls.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 10, 2016 12:55:33 GMT -5
My goodness. At this point this thread may as well get renamed to "Bash on Chris Sale here." "His numbers were the worst of his career." "His velocity is down and he gave up too much contact." "His arm is going to implode when he throws his next pitch." Down year? His numbers were still top 5 or 10 in virtually every statistic. Velocity and contact issues? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-is-pitching-to-contact-now/Injury risk? You're beating a dead horse. He's been on the DL once. In 2014, at the beginning of the season. What did he do when he came back? He dominated the league to the tune of a 2.57 FIP and a 30.4K%. Let's stop pretending that Moncada is the next Trout and Kopech is the next Pedro. You don't get a guy like Chris Sale without giving up premium talent like those two. I hope they're great players and have long careers, but for now, I'll focus on the Red Sox having the best rotation in MLB to go with a young, talented and controllable Major League roster.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 10, 2016 13:09:28 GMT -5
When you're trading Kopech, any return is a disappointment.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 14:08:06 GMT -5
Don't. Feed. The. Trolls. There is no hyperbole here. James, this is an absolutely horrible trade, and you know it, made only to get under the salary cap. A responsible journalist, like yourself, should write about this with integrity. Don't. Feed. The. Mainstream Media.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 14:11:08 GMT -5
My goodness. At this point this thread may as well get renamed to "Bash on Chris Sale here." "His numbers were the worst of his career." "His velocity is down and he gave up too much contact." "His arm is going to implode when he throws his next pitch." Down year? His numbers were still top 5 or 10 in virtually every statistic. Velocity and contact issues? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-is-pitching-to-contact-now/Injury risk? You're beating a dead horse. He's been on the DL once. In 2014, at the beginning of the season. What did he do when he came back? He dominated the league to the tune of a 2.57 FIP and a 30.4K%. Let's stop pretending that Moncada is the next Trout and Kopech is the next Pedro. You don't get a guy like Chris Sale without giving up premium talent like those two. I hope they're great players and have long careers, but for now, I'll focus on the Red Sox having the best rotation in MLB to go with a young, talented and controllable Major League roster. Explain these days missed for elbow soreness and the trend in dropping velocity. www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitch=FTThis is indicative of a guy who was struggling to keep going out there, and no one questions Sale's toughness, but pitching through soreness and dead arm. Not what you want when you just paid 400 million dollars in excess value to acquire him.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 10, 2016 14:18:40 GMT -5
Look, Xander Bogaerts has accumulated 9.4 fWAR in 3+ seasons. He has 3 seasons left under team control. He would need to average 6.9 WAR per season in order to reach career 30 WAR. The odds of him achieving that? Zero. The odds that Kopech and Moncada put up a combined 30 WAR each in their team controlled years? Let's put it this way, you'd have better odds playing the lotto That's not fair to Bogey. He's the most advanced hitter in the game, right up there with Trout and Harper. He has half seasons of 3-3.5 WAR, but then his problem has been that he gets tired late in the season, and -- as he says in his own words -- he starts to feel the pressure. I expect with experience, and the 26th man giving him more rest, he'll start to put up fulll 6-7 WAR seasons. Plus, that first season of -.3 WAR was an outlier and not predictive. And I'm rounding up, so if Bogey gets to 26ish WAR, I win.
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Post by fan72 on Dec 10, 2016 14:22:36 GMT -5
Don't. Feed. The. Trolls. There is no hyperbole here. James, this is an absolutely horrible trade, and you know it, made only to get under the salary cap. A responsible journalist, like yourself, should write about this with integrity. Don't. Feed. The. Mainstream Media. Wow! How is this trade helping them get under the salary cap, none of these prospects effected team payroll. Conspiracy theories really have no place on a baseball board.
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