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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2016 11:58:08 GMT -5
Not to take away from the joke.....not trying to be a donny downer.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2016 11:59:55 GMT -5
Or it's our Toyota minivan that has a good chance of blowing up in our face and not allowing us to reach our goal of getting our kids home safely.... maybe it's worth the risk because even if it blows up we will get 90% there.
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 22, 2016 12:10:25 GMT -5
I'm excited about Chris Sale pitching for my favorite team.
And we better win one or more titles -- because the day of reckoning is approaching.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 22, 2016 12:38:05 GMT -5
But I think by 2020, if the Sox went empty in their window and Sale is gone and the others are young and productive at minimal cost for the White Sox while the Red Sox lose some significant free agents and have little in the way of young players or up and coming players to replace them, that could be a pretty big problem. If the parameters you set happen, yeah sure that would be a problem. The question is how likely is that? Chances are strong that some key players are extended, we have 3 years to build the farm back up (A SWAG puts them probably around average to slightly below right now, it's not the dustbowl on the farm) and it takes about 4 to 5 years to rebuild the farm. So we are more likely to have issues 4 to 5 years from now, but that can be managed to. Should we not contend 3 years from now players will be traded, money freed up to land Free agent too and players in the low minors now will emerge if not as stars but useful pieces to fill in gaps. I don't see the doom and gloomers thinking it through thoroughly. I love prospects but it's reasonable to conclude while sticking with the homegrown approach increased the chances of being peripheral contenders longer we have now made our selves the #1 or #2 contender for likley 3 years and 3 years allows the team to restock and fix most problems down the road. It's a trade off and even if DD went further than many here wished for I think the more reasonable on that side of the table would have to admit he's not crossed the line as much as they'd originally thought.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2016 12:57:28 GMT -5
This analogy would be great if we were talking about something non-compeitive like t-ball, because in real life having a better than adequate car provides few actual advantages, or if it were in a world where there was some reward for having better cars than other people on the block, and we were all fans watching to see who has the best car. I guess, like in NASCAR or some other car-racing thing I do not really know about, where if your car is adequate and the other guy's car is better you lose.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2016 13:06:08 GMT -5
But suppose it's the Batmobile. Those advantages seem tangible to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 22, 2016 13:48:12 GMT -5
So, it's 2004. Wife comes home and husband is all excited. "I got the best deal today. I didn't even think it was available!" "And you bought ..." "This awesome SUV!" "Honey, we have your Lexus and my Toyota minivan. Why do we need an SUV?" "It's awesome though. It might be the best SUV made." "How much did you pay?" "$75K." "Isn't that way above list?" "Of course it's above list. The demand is so great for this that they can't meet it. The waiting list is six months long! You seem to be missing the point of how awesome this vehicle is!" "Actually, I don't think I am. Where did you get the $75K?" "I sold our Apple stock." So, it's funny, but in this alternate universe, do you need to drive a different car every day in a five-car rotation? And your sole purpose in life is to have a better fleet of cars combined with... whatever in the analogy the rest of the team is? Of course, given that you're The Steven Wright Guy (TM)* and he's probably the guy that gets bumped, maybe this analogy does hold more true for you.
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Post by 0ap0 on Dec 22, 2016 13:50:58 GMT -5
But suppose it's the Batmobile. Those advantages seem tangible to me. ... and the batmobile is driven by an elite pitcher on a good contract!
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Post by 0ap0 on Dec 22, 2016 13:54:01 GMT -5
Of course, given that you're The Steven Wright Guy (TM)* and he's probably the guy that gets bumped, maybe this analogy does hold more true for you. You see, Wright is the Isetta, which is old and slow and weird, but if you remember to calculate how much time you save looking for parking there's a compelling case that it gets you where you want to go faster.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 22, 2016 14:09:48 GMT -5
Or it's our Toyota minivan that has a good chance of blowing up in our face and not allowing us to reach our goal of getting our kids home safely.... maybe it's worth the risk because even if it blows up we will get 90% there. Also as what Chris said. You want the best 5 vehicles to get your kids home safely, period (we have to assume we can't drive any one of the cars twice in a week). It's not good enough if you get NINETY PERCENT there, in MLB there's no 2nd place trophy & you can't have you & your kids hiking home the last 2 miles. We just replaced the Toyota Minivan with 170k miles with a brand new BMW.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2016 14:20:24 GMT -5
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 22, 2016 14:32:33 GMT -5
That was painful to watch.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2016 14:38:09 GMT -5
That was painful to watch. It happened two years ago and I've watched it at least 50 times and it still makes me anxious.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2016 15:15:01 GMT -5
What do people actually expect out of Wright next year. Let's say he starts the season in the rotation.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2016 15:32:58 GMT -5
What do people actually expect out of Wright next year. Let's say he starts the season in the rotation. A rock solid 4/5 that gives you a ton of innings, with upside.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2016 16:15:44 GMT -5
What do people actually expect out of Wright next year. Let's say he starts the season in the rotation. A rock solid 4/5 that gives you a ton of innings, with upside. I personally think Stephen Wright is hitting his prime right now. A knuckle ball pitcher who can hit 83-90 on a fastball with a knuckle ball he can change speeds with, shouldn't go unnoticed. That's pretty devastating.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 22, 2016 16:37:55 GMT -5
A rock solid 4/5 that gives you a ton of innings, with upside. I personally think Stephen Wright is hitting his prime right now. A knuckle ball pitcher who can hit 83-90 on a fastball with a knuckle ball he can change speeds with, shouldn't go unnoticed. That's pretty devastating. Saw the 83 but never saw the 90..... His knuckleball did seemto generally have more life than Wake's
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2016 16:46:10 GMT -5
I thought it was really cool that Sale turned down #49 out of respect for Tim Wakefield. He'll wear #41 because he doesn't give a damn about Lackey.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 22, 2016 20:54:11 GMT -5
But I think by 2020, if the Sox went empty in their window and Sale is gone and the others are young and productive at minimal cost for the White Sox while the Red Sox lose some significant free agents and have little in the way of young players or up and coming players to replace them, that could be a pretty big problem. If the parameters you set happen, yeah sure that would be a problem. The question is how likely is that? Chances are strong that some key players are extended, we have 3 years to build the farm back up (A SWAG puts them probably around average to slightly below right now, it's not the dustbowl on the farm) and it takes about 4 to 5 years to rebuild the farm. So we are more likely to have issues 4 to 5 years from now, but that can be managed to. Should we not contend 3 years from now players will be traded, money freed up to land Free agent too and players in the low minors now will emerge if not as stars but useful pieces to fill in gaps. I don't see the doom and gloomers thinking it through thoroughly. I love prospects but it's reasonable to conclude while sticking with the homegrown approach increased the chances of being peripheral contenders longer we have now made our selves the #1 or #2 contender for likley 3 years and 3 years allows the team to restock and fix most problems down the road. It's a trade off and even if DD went further than many here wished for I think the more reasonable on that side of the table would have to admit he's not crossed the line as much as they'd originally thought. Why is it gloom and doom if you call a spade a spade? The Red Sox traded in a very good chance of winning a World Series over a long stretch for a very good chance of winning a World Series in a 3 to 4 year window. Sure, they can spend money or perhaps they extend players. Honestly Betts and eventually Benintendi would be the only ones I would want them shelling out the big bucks for. I don't think restocking the farm system is going to be as easy as you think it is. The Red Sox will be picking in the 20s, they will not be able to outspend just about everybody else and outside of this season they will not be able to outspend everybody else in the international market as there is a cap on what they can spend. That makes it harder for the Red Sox to draft better players than other teams are drafting, so no I don't expect the Red Sox farm system to be brimming with the kind of top notch talent they have recently had by the time 2021 comes around. And also watching Dombrowski's MO - if the Sox have a chance to win, just about any kid they develop will be fair game to be dealt, so it's to tougher to foresee a new emerging Red Sox core coming in as the Betts/Bradley/Bogaerts core matures as reaches free agency. Doesn't mean that Dave can't do astute trades or they can't go crazy and spend big in the free agent market. Dave is doing a defensible strategy but it doesn't mean that just because you don't prefer that approach that you're all doom and gloom. The Red Sox have a lesser chance of being great in the 2021 - 2023 timeframe than they previously did. You can't debate that and call it being a downer but not having Espinoza, Kopech, and Moncada hitting their stride around that time does make an impact. We'll just have to see how much of one.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 22, 2016 22:47:14 GMT -5
Agree. Unless they buy someone young and great in free agency within the next 3 years (Otani?) or trade for some hot pitching prospects or somehow find a diamond in the rough in the draft, the rotation could be pretty sketchy come 2020. Should be a lot of fun between now and then, though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2016 0:00:00 GMT -5
Agree. Unless they buy someone young and great in free agency within the next 3 years (Otani?) or trade for some hot pitching prospects or somehow find a diamond in the rough in the draft, the rotation could be pretty sketchy come 2020. Should be a lot of fun between now and then, though. Isn't it nice that we're worried about 2020 when DD has 3 years of off-seasons to deal with it ? Think about the general difference in mindset amongst the posters this year compared to previous years.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 23, 2016 8:16:04 GMT -5
This isn't a defense for trading away all young talent.... I also don't think that's what Dave did or will do. So here it goes...
Prospects flame out at a pretty high rate. It's a GMs job to work with his evaluators and make decisions on these guys and make sure they help the BIG LEAGUE club in one fashion or another. All these posts assume that Espinoza and Kopech are going to be top of the rotation guys come 2020. If they do then yes trading them now has hurt the team come 2020. If they don't, then trading them hasn't. When you have the surplus that the Red Sox did, you almost have to trade a lot of it to have a chance of maximizing its major league value. Just for one example, had they held Guerra after his breakout, they would have lost that asset, an asset that had next to no real chance of impacting your major league club.
Has he gone overboard or picked the wrong guys to trade? I don't know yet, time will tell. But these guys have values have with peaks and valleys and shelf lives so when you trade them matter.
Also, championship teams aren't built by simply sitting back and letting guys get promoted and hoping it all lines up. Look at what Theo traded for a few months of Chapman. That move maybe wouldn't have resulted in a WS had a couple Cleveland pitchers not gotten injured after that move. Now they traded another top asset for a year of a closer they won't resign.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 23, 2016 10:05:38 GMT -5
Agree. Unless they buy someone young and great in free agency within the next 3 years (Otani?) or trade for some hot pitching prospects or somehow find a diamond in the rough in the draft, the rotation could be pretty sketchy come 2020. Should be a lot of fun between now and then, though. Isn't it nice that we're worried about 2020 when DD has 3 years of off-seasons to deal with it ? Think about the general difference in mindset amongst the posters this year compared to previous years. Hey, Theo always said every move they made was in regard to a 5-year plan. And, yes, three years is a long time in baseball years, but still developing starting pitching that projects to be better than a #4/5 has been an issue with this team for nearly a decade, so always something to consider on a board where we talk about prospects - all while enjoying the major league team in its current state. That and Theo remains my GM spirit animal.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2016 10:58:17 GMT -5
The Yankees had the #3 and #12 prospects (BBA) in 1996 and traded both within a year: OF Ruben Rivera and P Matt Drews. Think of how many championships they could have won if they had not traded away those guys!
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,914
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 23, 2016 15:14:50 GMT -5
So, it's 2004. Wife comes home and husband is all excited. "I got the best deal today. I didn't even think it was available!" "And you bought ..." "This awesome SUV!" "Honey, we have your Lexus and my Toyota minivan. Why do we need an SUV?" "It's awesome though. It might be the best SUV made." "How much did you pay?" "$75K." "Isn't that way above list?" "Of course it's above list. The demand is so great for this that they can't meet it. The waiting list is six months long! You seem to be missing the point of how awesome this vehicle is!" "Actually, I don't think I am. Where did you get the $75K?" "I sold our Apple stock." So, it's funny, but in this alternate universe, do you need to drive a different car every day in a five-car rotation? And your sole purpose in life is to have a better fleet of cars combined with... whatever in the analogy the rest of the team is? Of course, given that you're The Steven Wright Guy (TM)* and he's probably the guy that gets bumped, maybe this analogy does hold more true for you. Folks are both overthinking this analogy and getting the basic point. What they've done here is give away the entire careers (the six years of control and the opportunity to extend at a reasonable price) of Moncada, Kopech, and two other interesting prospects, and, possibly, the careers of players the Phillies get for Buchholz at the deadline. In return they get: 1) An upgrade from Steven Wright (probably) to Chris Sale for 2017, plus an upgrade from Clay Buchholz to Wright as 6th starter. 2) An upgrade from Steven Wright (probably) to Chris Sale for 2018, plus an upgrade from the best of Michael Kopech, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson as 6th starter (less the flexibility of keeping the 6th starter in Pawtucket). 3) An upgrade from the best of Kopech, Owens, Johnson, and possible TBD to Chris Sale for 2019 (assuming they don't extend Pomeranz), plus an upgrade at 6th starter from the second best of that group to the best. A) Now, if in each of these years, the upgrade less the downgrade of not having Moncada is the difference between winning the division and the W/C, or between making or missing the playoffs, and all of the prospects bust, this is a fabulous trade. B) If, however, there is never such a difference, and Moncada and Kopech are as good as we hoped, it's one of the worst trades in history. C) Obviously, there are intermediate outcomes. Do you get it? Chris Sale could win 3 straight Cy Youngs ... in scenario B. The analogy was about marginal value. You overpaid for a precious commodity, of which you can only use a finite amount, and you already had the best extant supply of it (plus the accompanying things you need to realize its value). By the laws of supply and demand, it's very unlikely that you win that deal. One of Theo's rules of thumb was "avoid the temptation to build an uber-team." (Yes, he admits he violated this with the Crawford signing and AGon trade.) It goes without saying that you should also avoid the temptation of trying to make a near uber-team even better.
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