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2017 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by bluechip on Dec 8, 2016 11:47:51 GMT -5
Obviously both very good at the top and very deep, this should be the area of strength. Sale, Price and Porcello are your 1, 2, 3. That leaves Pomeranz (coming off an all star year), Wright (coming off an all star year), Buchholz (strong finish to the season), and Eduardo Rodriguez battling for the last two spots.
There are lot of things to consider: Who makes the rotation? What is the order? Do the Red Sox deal a starter to get/stay under the tax limits and restock the farm? Is there a problem with four lefties in the rotation?
Right now I'd have the rotation as: 1) Porcello 2) Sale 3) Price 4) Wright 5) Pomeranz
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2016 12:08:19 GMT -5
I've seen a lot of questions about going with 4 lefties and don't understand it. Starters and especially elite starters, don't have huge splits and RHH have more trouble with LHP than vice versa in general.. You just want the 5 best pitchers in the rotation regardless of handedness.
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Post by thegoo13 on Dec 8, 2016 12:13:06 GMT -5
I've seen a lot of questions about going with 4 lefties and don't understand it. Starters and especially elite starters, don't have huge splits and RHH have more trouble with LHP than vice versa in general.. You just want the 5 best pitchers in the rotation regardless of handedness. Side note to this discussion. I was surprised when Papi wrote his article on the 5 toughest pitchers he faced. All were RH. As much time as managers spent making sure they had a lefty to face him in the 7th inning or later he didn't mention any, even Andrew Miller, among the toughest. Just interesting to me. I agree. If ERod bounces back and is the guy we hoped he was going to be there is no keeping him out of the rotation next year. Interested to see if Pomeranz's decline may have had more to do with wearing down a bit from pitching a lot more innings than he had in the past. Hope so!
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Post by RedSoxStats on Dec 8, 2016 13:07:41 GMT -5
Dombrowski clearly loves Rodriguez, Farrell just said he and Pomeranz are in the rotation, Rodriguez was awesome after his quick trip to Pawtucket for the AS break: 14 games 73 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 2nd best SP in MLB in limiting hard contact.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 8, 2016 13:30:33 GMT -5
Rotation will be:
Porcello Sale Price Pomeranz Rodriguez
Rotation should be:
Sale Porcello Price Wright Rodriguez
Sale is the best pitcher and should start game 1 Clay traded or in pen Pomeranz in pen
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 13:45:29 GMT -5
Rotation will be: Porcello Sale Price Pomeranz Rodriguez Rotation should be: Sale Porcello Price Wright Rodriguez Sale is the best pitcher and should start game 1 Clay traded or in pen Pomeranz in pen Farrell will be hard put to not start Porcello in game 1, he earned it. I'm also guessing that with Farrell being a players manager, he'll give the incumbent Price the second start over Sale. Porcello Price Sale Rodriguz Pomeranian
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 8, 2016 13:51:20 GMT -5
Yea I agree on Porcello... they open at home this year too so there is no way of working out the "home opener" excuse either
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2016 14:06:24 GMT -5
Porcello at 1 (not because he is the most talented, but out of respect -- after the first week, it barely matters); Sale; Price; Rodriguez; Poemeranz.
Yes, it is 4 lefties. So what? Wright can be long-man in the pen and a swing starter if necessary. Buch obviously gets traded for some lottery ticket prospects.
I don't see any reason to keep Buch -- and I mean that in the best way. Guy is talented, could have a great year, so he should have some value. He is too expensive to be a swing guy for Sox when he could be a top-of-the-line starter for a lesser team. For all involved, a trade is the best option. I have little faith in Wright. He looked bad at the end of the year (might have been the shoulder issue). Knuckleballers are just always a mystery.
But Eddie -- I am a huge fan. He's young, has great stuff, seems like he has a good head -- and the bad streaks are explainable. If he can learn from the veteran lefties, he could be great. I remain cautiously a fan of Pomeranz -- his stuff is really good, and if you have three horses up front, he can get away with being a 5/6 inning pitcher.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 8, 2016 15:38:07 GMT -5
I'm reposting this from something I brought up yesterday (Maybe this is another thread, but what should the rotation be?)
I'd like the Sox not to put their eggs in order so to speak, but rather spread out the big 3 of Sale(L), Price(L) and Porcello(R). During the regular season breaking them up 1, 3 & 5 the order matters not. It allmost makes it a sure thing the bullpen is not overtaxed 2 days in a row (or would you buy less likely?), thus likely decreasing the amount of times Farrel has to make decisions on high leverage situations based on usage etc. I'd go with E-Rod(L) and Pomeranz (R) as your other 2 starters or #2 & #4.. Wright is my swing man who is the first to fill in for an injured starter because I believe as a knuckler he'd have an easier time increasing from 1 to 2 innings of work to eventually 6 to 7 in short order. Buchholz is finally moved for prospects and Elias, Owens and Johnson becomes your 7th, 8th and 9th starters in case the injury bug hits hard. This team should be able to clinch a spot in enough time to shuffle the rotation, if even needed, at that point to put your eggs in order.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 8, 2016 16:37:07 GMT -5
I assume most of us see Buchholz as the most likely trade candidate due to his salary and inconsistent pitching. Doesn't that also make him the least likely to give you a substantial return. Pomeranz probably has the most value, but we know that DD really like Pomeranz.
I wonder what the trade interest is in Wright. He makes nothing and was very good last year before his injury.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 8, 2016 16:40:30 GMT -5
Rotation will be: Porcello Sale Price Pomeranz Rodriguez Rotation should be: Sale Porcello Price Wright Rodriguez Sale is the best pitcher and should start game 1 Clay traded or in pen Pomeranz in pen Porcello is the guy on the team last year, had a better 2016 than either Price or Sale, and is the reigning Cy Young winner. He should start opening day. Sale is a great great pitcher, but I feel like with all the praise he has received this week, people are forgetting how good Porcello is.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2016 17:50:58 GMT -5
Rotation will be: Porcello Sale Price Pomeranz Rodriguez Rotation should be: Sale Porcello Price Wright Rodriguez Sale is the best pitcher and should start game 1 Clay traded or in pen Pomeranz in pen Farrell will be hard put to not start Porcello in game 1, he earned it. I'm also guessing that with Farrell being a players manager, he'll give the incumbent Price the second start over Sale. Porcello Price Sale Rodriguz Pomeranian Wouldn't surprise me, I guess. I can honestly say I've never given a moment's thought to who starts Game 1 of 162. The order changes so frequently throughout the year due to injuries, skipping starts, rain delays, etc, that by June we'll see Pomeranz sandwiched between Sale and Price and Porcello in the #5 spot. Sale was brought in to start Game 1 of the postseason. I hope he performs well enough to have that distinction. That's all that really matters in the end.
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Post by trajanacc on Dec 8, 2016 17:59:34 GMT -5
Interesting that steamer thinks Pomeranz will be our fourth best pitcher...projecting a sub-4 ERA albeit in somewhat limited IP. His projection isn't really too far below Porcello's. Seems from reading this board that most feel he is our 6th or 7th best option. Maybe a little bit of recency bias here?
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Post by immortalkid on Dec 8, 2016 18:41:30 GMT -5
I find it very difficult that Dombrowski & Co. will put Pomeranz in the bullpen when he was just recently traded for Boston's best pitching prospect – who is considered one of the best in the game. I would place higher odds on Pomeranz being traded over going to the bullpen. (Rockies in a deal for Ryan McMahon?)
I think Buchholz is a goner and will be traded for a mid-tier prospect or a bench player that is preferable to Rutledge.
Personally, I would rather hang onto as many SP assets as possible which would put Eddy Rodriguez in AAA. I realize that's not feasible though, given the comments of DD and Farrell. So he's in the rotation. That leaves Wright as the swingman. I don't think this is entirely fair to Wright, but he'll get his chance later in the year. Attrition and injury is inevitable.
Also – I would be a proponent of a six-man rotation through April. It will ease pitchers in as well as make them more rested for a deep October playoff run. That may mitigate running out of gas later in the year. In addition, there is usually a World Series hangover for starting pitchers because they pitch more innings and have less downtime to recover before spring training. This would also buy Boston a month to determine who belongs in the rotation. It's possible the answer is very simple. Maybe Rodriguez implodes, Pomeranz can't go deep in games, or Wright confirms he's a pumpkin now.
(Side note, I'm back after years of lurking; I used to be a regular contributor on the boards a long time ago and unfortunately it looks like I can't remember my username so my archives are gone. Bummer.)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2016 19:27:18 GMT -5
Interesting that steamer thinks Pomeranz will be our fourth best pitcher...projecting a sub-4 ERA albeit in somewhat limited IP. His projection isn't really too far below Porcello's. Seems from reading this board that most feel he is our 6th or 7th best option. Maybe a little bit of recency bias here? I buy Pomeranz as a 4.00-ERA pitcher. I just don't buy his ability to go 30+ starts and 190 innings. It's hard to imagine him starting the season in the rotation and still being there when September rolls around. Hopefully I'm wrong.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 8, 2016 19:53:45 GMT -5
Interesting that steamer thinks Pomeranz will be our fourth best pitcher...projecting a sub-4 ERA albeit in somewhat limited IP. His projection isn't really too far below Porcello's. Seems from reading this board that most feel he is our 6th or 7th best option. Maybe a little bit of recency bias here? I buy Pomeranz as a 4.00-ERA pitcher. I just don't buy his ability to go 30+ starts and 190 innings. It's hard to imagine him starting the season in the rotation and still being there when September rolls around. Hopefully I'm wrong. Well, in his defence, he did do that just this past season. Pomeranz had a phenomenal month of August, and then fell off in September. Isn't it at least possible that pitching a career high in innings finally caught up with him? I think he could be a very solid 3/4 pitcher with the upside of a two. Even if he isn't great, he'll make a fairly low salary this year and I don't see how he isn't a key piece of the Sox' pitching staff this year, whether it's in the rotation or in the pen as a swing man.
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Post by Alonzo on Dec 8, 2016 21:10:48 GMT -5
If it was my decision, I'd go with Rodriguez and Wright in the spots #4 and #5. But I wouldn't have to make that call because I would have never made that trade for Pomeranz...or at the very least returned him to SD. Wright deserves to get/keep his starting job. You know by now that he is decent enough to put up at least decent stat lines. At the very least he eats Innings and protects the bullpen on most nights. Exactly what you want out of a "backend" starter.
Rodriguez is also a no brainer to me (look at his great 2nd half stats) unless someone offers a Shelby Miller type package which would be too hard to pass up.
It all depends on what Pomeranz' value is around baseball. Would he bring back a top 15 prospect like Victor Robles or Joey Gallo? Or is it more in the 30-50 range?
No ide what to do with Buchholz. His value is not high enough to make a worthwhile trade, so they could also keep him and hope to bolster his value and find some desperate team at the DL.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 21:10:55 GMT -5
I assume most of us see Buchholz as the most likely trade candidate due to his salary and inconsistent pitching. Doesn't that also make him the least likely to give you a substantial return. Pomeranz probably has the most value, but we know that DD really like Pomeranz. I wonder what the trade interest is in Wright. He makes nothing and was very good last year before his injury. Others don't think so but I think either Wright or Buchholz will bring a substantial return after all the thin crop of free agent starters and high return trade chips are gone. Wright represents upside and a cost controlled starter and Buchholz offers a more than reasonable salary with a high upside and only a one year commitment so, no albatross and a potential qualifying offer down the road. I think there will be decent offers for either but trading Clay would give the Sox salary wiggle room. As I pointed out in another thread, more than enough wiggle room to extend Mookie and spread the AAV over a longer period which in turn will pay dividends down the road like Pedroia's contract does now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 21:36:42 GMT -5
I assume most of us see Buchholz as the most likely trade candidate due to his salary and inconsistent pitching. Doesn't that also make him the least likely to give you a substantial return. Pomeranz probably has the most value, but we know that DD really like Pomeranz. I wonder what the trade interest is in Wright. He makes nothing and was very good last year before his injury. Others don't think so but I think either Wright or Buchholz will bring a substantial return after all the thin crop of free agent starters and high return trade chips are gone. Wright represents upside and a cost controlled starter and Buchholz offers a more than reasonable salary with a high upside and only a one year commitment so, no albatross and a potential qualifying offer down the road. I think there will be decent offers for either but trading Clay would give the Sox salary wiggle room. As I pointed out in another thread, more than enough wiggle room to extend Mookie and spread the AAV over a longer period which in turn will pay dividends down the road like Pedroia's contract does now. I can see Wright bringing back a substantial return, but not Buchholz. Just look at the recent Garcia trade, Cardinals got very little for him and he made slightly less than Clay. The only way you get a Substantial return for Buchholz is if you pay a large portion of his contact, but then we get less money below luxury cap . Even then the return, wouldn't be substantial in my opinion, maybe a good/decent return.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 21:40:56 GMT -5
Others don't think so but I think either Wright or Buchholz will bring a substantial return after all the thin crop of free agent starters and high return trade chips are gone. Wright represents upside and a cost controlled starter and Buchholz offers a more than reasonable salary with a high upside and only a one year commitment so, no albatross and a potential qualifying offer down the road. I think there will be decent offers for either but trading Clay would give the Sox salary wiggle room. As I pointed out in another thread, more than enough wiggle room to extend Mookie and spread the AAV over a longer period which in turn will pay dividends down the road like Pedroia's contract does now. I can see Wright bringing back a substantial return, but not Buchholz. Just look at the recent Garcia trade, Cardinals got very little for him and he made slightly less than Clay. The only way you get a Substantial return for Buchholz is if you pay a large portion of his contact, but then we get less money below luxury cap . Even then the return, wouldn't be substantial in my opinion, maybe a good/decent return. I'm pretty sure the words in my post following the word after is precisely why DD is in no hurry. It always helps when other teams know there will be competition to their offers. Garcia was traded when there were a lot of alternatives available. Additionally, if Clay comes up with an off season injury, we could always trade him to San Diego. ADD: I don't doubt that the offers for Wright will be better than the offers for Clay. What I do doubt is that the offers for Wright will be the internal value of $13m of AAV better than the offers for Clay.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 8, 2016 22:00:19 GMT -5
I'd rather see them trade either Wright or Pomeranz, but neither of those moves would make sense for them team. If they're going to trade a starter, it may as well be Buchholz. I'd rather save room in the luxury tax this season and worry about the farm system next year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 22:15:49 GMT -5
On another sidebar, first let me say I haven't jumped off the Farrell should be gone bandwagon. On the other hand, he deserves somewhat of a mulligan here for the overall performance of the relievers last year. If we recall, most of the starters were a disaster for the first 2-3 months which in turn caused the pen to be overtaxed. When the starters began performing, relievers like Tazawa never fully recovered.
This year shouldn't see those issues. The game has changed and the days of close to everyone having 2 or 3 200 innings guys are long gone. There were only 16 pitchers who pitched 200+ innings last year in all of baseball. We have 3 of those. There were only 8 pitchers who threw more than 220 innings, we have 2 of those.
ADD: A Hembree/ABad tandem could be a wipeout 7th inning combo. A Pomeranz/Wright piggyback is a better solution to stretching out Pomeranz for the full season than a 6 man rotation to start the season.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 9, 2016 0:47:22 GMT -5
On another sidebar, first let me say I haven't jumped off the Farrell should be gone bandwagon. On the other hand, he deserves somewhat of a mulligan here for the overall performance of the relievers last year. If we recall, most of the starters were a disaster for the first 2-3 months which in turn caused the pen to be overtaxed. When the starters began performing, relievers like Tazawa never fully recovered. This year shouldn't see those issues. The game has changed and the days of close to everyone having 2 or 3 200 innings guys are long gone. There were only 16 pitchers who pitched 200+ innings last year in all of baseball. We have 3 of those. There were only 8 pitchers who threw more than 220 innings, we have 2 of those. ADD: A Hembree/ABad tandem could be a wipeout 7th inning combo. A Pomeranz/Wright piggyback is a better solution to stretching out Pomeranz for the full season than a 6 man rotation to start the season. I don't know why you brought this up on this thread but it can't go unchallenged. But sorry Ross should have been used more when the starters were failing early on instead of overusing Taz and Koji. There was a reason why his pythag was so bad. And the stupidity with Wright when he could have used Pomz. A six year old could see Taz was wearing and even when Taz came back he used him a lot again. And then Abad was only a lefty specialist with Twins but somehow Farrrel though he was both. Then we it was clear he was just scary bad, he kept using him for too long. Anyhow I'm done with that. You offered bait on a thread that shouldn't have been offered. He's here though and hoep he does great this year. As long as you don't bait there should be a clean slate. ------------ I can see spacing the big 3 starters out a bit but why 1/3/5 with the top 3 and not 1/2/4?
I do have a question for anyone/all--
Until a trade happens - why wouldn't the best move be to put ERod in AAA? Pomz and Erod and Clay definitely have "innings issues" and Wright has major "weather related issues," don't they? And wouldn't it better to have ERod more ready for the final 2 months or so? Wouldn't we want as fresh of an ERod as we can for the playoffs? I'm not arguing. The only thing I can a think of "you want to pitch your best regardless" which is why I'm in the camp of being okay with 4 lefties starting. But there is a reason why you tend to give more rest to older players. You don't want them to wear down but you want to keep somewhat of a rhythm.
Sit him for the 1st month-and-a-half or so.
Clay,
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Post by p23w on Dec 9, 2016 1:05:26 GMT -5
The 2017 Red Sox have the talent to get 950 quality innings from their starting rotation. This is HUGE. Even if the offense has a 10% drop off in run production, the team should be a lock for 95+ wins. A healthy bullpen and this team will win the pennant. The pieces are in place.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 9, 2016 2:11:39 GMT -5
I find it very difficult that Dombrowski & Co. will put Pomeranz in the bullpen when he was just recently traded for Boston's best pitching prospect – who is considered one of the best in the game. I would place higher odds on Pomeranz being traded over going to the bullpen. (Rockies in a deal for Ryan McMahon?) I think Buchholz is a goner and will be traded for a mid-tier prospect or a bench player that is preferable to Rutledge. Personally, I would rather hang onto as many SP assets as possible which would put Eddy Rodriguez in AAA. I realize that's not feasible though, given the comments of DD and Farrell. So he's in the rotation. That leaves Wright as the swingman. I don't think this is entirely fair to Wright, but he'll get his chance later in the year. Attrition and injury is inevitable. Also – I would be a proponent of a six-man rotation through April. It will ease pitchers in as well as make them more rested for a deep October playoff run. That may mitigate running out of gas later in the year. In addition, there is usually a World Series hangover for starting pitchers because they pitch more innings and have less downtime to recover before spring training. This would also buy Boston a month to determine who belongs in the rotation. It's possible the answer is very simple. Maybe Rodriguez implodes, Pomeranz can't go deep in games, or Wright confirms he's a pumpkin now. (Side note, I'm back after years of lurking; I used to be a regular contributor on the boards a long time ago and unfortunately it looks like I can't remember my username so my archives are gone. Bummer.) Yeah, it seems almost certain to me that Pomeranz starts in hopes of building some value before the deadline, and if Rodriguez and the big 3 are pitching well, Pomeranz *might* get moved at the deadline, especially if Johnson or Owens or both make significant leaps at Pawtucket, and Wright looks good in his (probably limited) time. I imagine it will depend on the standings (more likely if the Sox are way up, such that they can spare having an outstanding 5). Wright deserves to start, but DD isn't going to relegate Pomeranz to the 'pen and 1) admit the acquisition was a mistake while 2) not giving himself a chance to recoup that lost talent.
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