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2017 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2016 0:17:55 GMT -5
Yeah I can't see a rotation without Wright in it personally. He was arguably the best option in the rotation out of anyone they have right now when healthy. He's arguably hitting his knuckle ball pitching prime with his good fastball and improving knuckle ball each year (thanks again to the help of Wakefield). I said this in another thread but a knuckle ball pitcher that can hit 83-90 mph on a fastball and then can change his knuckle ball to all sorts of different speeds is devastating. I'm still all for throwing Eduardo Rodriguez in the minors next year if everyone in the rotation is healthy. The Sox would increase depth and it could open up a spot for a guy like Elias to get a long man spot out of the bullpen. Great idea, maybe we can expand that and also send Xander and Mookie down to Pawtucket to give Marrero and Brentz a chance to see what they can do as regulars in the majors. Pretty much every signal coming out of the Sox (the Farrell interview, the BriSox leak, a DD quote) has Pomeranz and ERod in the rotation and Wright as the long/swing man where he'll also have significant value. Things can always change of course but if Pomeranz elbow is recovered, we have our rotation. That's a mistake if everyone's healthy because Wright was better then both pitchers. Difference is Xander and Mookie are established star players. Eduardo has been nothing but a question mark with great stuff.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2016 0:19:42 GMT -5
Great idea, maybe we can expand that and also send Xander and Mookie down to Pawtucket to give Marrero and Brentz a chance to see what they can do as regulars in the majors. Pretty much every signal coming out of the Sox (the Farrell interview, the BriSox leak, a DD quote) has Pomeranz and ERod in the rotation and Wright as the long/swing man where he'll also have significant value. Things can always change of course but if Pomeranz elbow is recovered, we have our rotation. That's a mistake if everyone's healthy because Wright was better then both pitchers. Difference is Xander and Mookie are established star players. Eduardo has been nothing but a question mark with great stuff. You don't think the knee injury had a lot to do with E-Rod's lousy start?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2016 0:22:20 GMT -5
I find it very difficult that Dombrowski & Co. will put Pomeranz in the bullpen when he was just recently traded for Boston's best pitching prospect – who is considered one of the best in the game. I would place higher odds on Pomeranz being traded over going to the bullpen. (Rockies in a deal for Ryan McMahon?) I think Buchholz is a goner and will be traded for a mid-tier prospect or a bench player that is preferable to Rutledge. Personally, I would rather hang onto as many SP assets as possible which would put Eddy Rodriguez in AAA. I realize that's not feasible though, given the comments of DD and Farrell. So he's in the rotation. That leaves Wright as the swingman. I don't think this is entirely fair to Wright, but he'll get his chance later in the year. Attrition and injury is inevitable. Also – I would be a proponent of a six-man rotation through April. It will ease pitchers in as well as make them more rested for a deep October playoff run. That may mitigate running out of gas later in the year. In addition, there is usually a World Series hangover for starting pitchers because they pitch more innings and have less downtime to recover before spring training. This would also buy Boston a month to determine who belongs in the rotation. It's possible the answer is very simple. Maybe Rodriguez implodes, Pomeranz can't go deep in games, or Wright confirms he's a pumpkin now. (Side note, I'm back after years of lurking; I used to be a regular contributor on the boards a long time ago and unfortunately it looks like I can't remember my username so my archives are gone. Bummer.) Yeah, it seems almost certain to me that Pomeranz starts in hopes of building some value before the deadline, and if Rodriguez and the big 3 are pitching well, Pomeranz *might* get moved at the deadline, especially if Johnson or Owens or both make significant leaps at Pawtucket, and Wright looks good in his (probably limited) time. I imagine it will depend on the standings (more likely if the Sox are way up, such that they can spare having an outstanding 5). Wright deserves to start, but DD isn't going to relegate Pomeranz to the 'pen and 1) admit the acquisition was a mistake while 2) not giving himself a chance to recoup that lost talent. There's also the chance that the Sox see enough in Pomeranz and his elite FB spin rate to want to trade Espinoza and to keep him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2016 0:30:12 GMT -5
That's a mistake if everyone's healthy because Wright was better then both pitchers. Difference is Xander and Mookie are established star players. Eduardo has been nothing but a question mark with great stuff. You don't think the knee injury had a lot to do with E-Rod's lousy start? I'm sure it did but this is one of the things that's a huge question about Eduardo. Between the durability concerns and the ineffectiveness (whether it's tipping pitches or whatever). The guy reminds me of a young Buchholz personally. I just think Wright is more effective than both Pomeranz and Eduardo and has more innings capability. Just prefer him in there over both.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2016 0:33:08 GMT -5
You don't think the knee injury had a lot to do with E-Rod's lousy start? I'm sure it did but this is one of the things that's a huge question about Eduardo. Between the durability concerns and the ineffectiveness (whether it's tipping pitches or whatever). The guy reminds me of a young Buchholz personally. I just think Wright is more effective than both Pomeranz and Eduardo and has more innings capability. Just prefer him in there over both. Fair enough. I think E-Rod's injury was fluky. The tipping pitches thing is concerning but that can be resolved. Wright won me over last season. I prefer him and E-Rod to him and Pomeranz in the rotation but Wright will probably work out of the pen, although I'm not sure how they'll use him - I'd guess early in games and for longer stints.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 23, 2016 6:40:43 GMT -5
If ERod pitches in the WBC, I could easily the Sox taking it VERY slow with him. Start him from the beginning in spring training when he's done and ramp him up slowly. Get him some time in Pawtucket to ease into things. Last WBC there were a tone of pitcher injuries. I think they could afford to be extra cautious with him and see how Wright and Pomeranz are doing.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 23, 2016 8:34:28 GMT -5
Having Wright in the bullpen would allow for more flexibility and creativity due to a knuckleballers ability to bounce back and stretch out more easily. If you want to skip starts for guys to keep innings down (Sale, Rodriguez and Pomeranz) you can do so. If you want to piggyback him with ERod or Pomeranz early in the year to keep innings down you can also do that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2016 12:38:38 GMT -5
If ERod pitches in the WBC, I could easily the Sox taking it VERY slow with him. Start him from the beginning in spring training when he's done and ramp him up slowly. Get him some time in Pawtucket to ease into things. Last WBC there were a tone of pitcher injuries. I think they could afford to be extra cautious with him and see how Wright and Pomeranz are doing. You're also strengthening your depth by doing so. Someone who wouldn't make the roster otherwise will have the chance to make the roster out of spring training (Roenis Elias, the new long man out of the bullpen).
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 23, 2016 13:23:55 GMT -5
Yeah I can't see a rotation without Wright in it personally. He was arguably the best option in the rotation out of anyone they have right now when healthy. He's arguably hitting his knuckle ball pitching prime with his good fastball and improving knuckle ball each year (thanks again to the help of Wakefield). I said this in another thread but a knuckle ball pitcher that can hit 83-90 mph on a fastball and then can change his knuckle ball to all sorts of different speeds is devastating. I'm still all for throwing Eduardo Rodriguez in the minors next year if everyone in the rotation is healthy. The Sox would increase depth and it could open up a spot for a guy like Elias to get a long man spot out of the bullpen. Wright as the swing man makes far to much sense for countless reasons, #1 would be the ability for him to go from the bullpen to a starter much smoother than anyone else they have. #2 any personal beliefs anyone here has on who would be better (Erod, Pomeranz and Wright) is likely splitting hairs, rendering that argument weak at best. None of them have done it for a full season and the closest to that is Pomeranz yet all have shown signs of being a front end starter so whatever your personal favorite is a crapshoot.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 23, 2016 13:41:58 GMT -5
Having Wright in the bullpen would allow for more flexibility and creativity due to a knuckleballers ability to bounce back and stretch out more easily. If you want to skip starts for guys to keep innings down (Sale, Rodriguez and Pomeranz) you can do so. If you want to piggyback him with ERod or Pomeranz early in the year to keep innings down you can also do that. Agree. I'm sure everything will work itself out. But everything being equal, We finally got Pomz' innings up to a point where he can go a full season (180+ IP). He's stretched out. He needs to be in the rotation & not in the pen.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 23, 2016 14:26:06 GMT -5
Here's the way it played out last year, with the number of games started for each Sox pitcher: Player | Games Started | Price | 35 | Porcello | 33 | Wright | 24 | Buchholz | 21 | Rodriguez | 20 | Pomeranz | 13 | Kelly | 6 | Owens | 5 | O'Sullivan | 4 | Elias | 1 |
There's no reason to think that there won't be a similar distribution in 2017, with different names tucked in there of course. This happens every year, and it's why depth is so important. By the way, the argument about whether Wright or Pomeranz should wag the tail on the rotation dog is about two players who each made it to last year's All-Star game. That should tell us a little bit about where the starting pitching is in relation to the rest of the league.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 23, 2016 15:09:28 GMT -5
Here's the way it played out last year, with the number of games started for each Sox pitcher: Player | Games Started | Price | 35 | Porcello | 33 | Wright | 24 | Buchholz | 21 | Rodriguez | 20 | Pomeranz | 13 | Kelly | 6 | O'Sullivan | 4 | Elias | 1 |
There's no reason to think that there won't be a similar distribution in 2017, with different names tucked in there of course. This happens every year, and it's why depth is so important. By the way, the argument about whether Wright or Pomeranz should wag the tail on the rotation dog is about two players who each made it to last year's All-Star game. That should tell us a little bit about where the starting pitching is in relation to the rest of the league. Owens was in there too, right?
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Post by telson13 on Dec 23, 2016 16:24:08 GMT -5
Yeah, it seems almost certain to me that Pomeranz starts in hopes of building some value before the deadline, and if Rodriguez and the big 3 are pitching well, Pomeranz *might* get moved at the deadline, especially if Johnson or Owens or both make significant leaps at Pawtucket, and Wright looks good in his (probably limited) time. I imagine it will depend on the standings (more likely if the Sox are way up, such that they can spare having an outstanding 5). Wright deserves to start, but DD isn't going to relegate Pomeranz to the 'pen and 1) admit the acquisition was a mistake while 2) not giving himself a chance to recoup that lost talent. There's also the chance that the Sox see enough in Pomeranz and his elite FB spin rate to want to trade Espinoza and to keep him. Hence, "might." If he's a TOR guy (I have the feeling they won't care much about FB spin unless it correlates with on-field success), they might even try to extend him. Personally, I think they should try to get 2-3 more years now, before he establishes any substantive track record.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 23, 2016 16:24:41 GMT -5
... Owens was in there too, right? He was, right between Kelly and O'Sullivan. Thanks for catching that.
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Post by tookme55 on Dec 23, 2016 17:07:30 GMT -5
That's 37 games started by anyone not named Price, Porcello, Wright, Pom and E Rod. If Sales take 35 of those starts, how can we not be much improved?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 23, 2016 18:11:50 GMT -5
Here's the way it played out last year, with the number of games started for each Sox pitcher: Player | Games Started | Price | 35 | Porcello | 33 | Wright | 24 | Buchholz | 21 | Rodriguez | 20 | Pomeranz | 13 | Kelly | 6 | Owens | 5 | O'Sullivan | 4 | Elias | 1 |
There's no reason to think that there won't be a similar distribution in 2017, with different names tucked in there of course. This happens every year, and it's why depth is so important. By the way, the argument about whether Wright or Pomeranz should wag the tail on the rotation dog is about two players who each made it to last year's All-Star game. That should tell us a little bit about where the starting pitching is in relation to the rest of the league. I like your second paragraph more than your first. To be fair you should insert Sales starts into the equation. That renders the quantity of depth as less important. That said I revert back to your first paragraph, our 4,5 & 6 (in no part. order Pomeranz, E-Rod and Wright) have a much higher ceiling than any other staff and their is probably only a few with a higher basement than the Sox. That said our 7,8 & 9 is solid in ELias Johnson and Owens. We have a deeper and more talented rotation than anyone else in the game. We scored more than 100 runs than anyone else in the AL last year the loss of Ortiz, a full season of AB yadda yadda worst case scenario we are competing for the most runs in the AL. Our defense 3b and SS aside is above average. Our bullpen is probably the hardest part to predict. It should be good maybe even very good but there is reason for some doubt as several players who finished strong including Kelly and Barnes very well could lead the team in being the first called upon to relief the starters and they have never done it before for a whole season. I remain optimistic but realize they may be some potential areas of concern.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2016 20:18:58 GMT -5
There's also the chance that the Sox see enough in Pomeranz and his elite FB spin rate to want to trade Espinoza and to keep him. Hence, "might." If he's a TOR guy (I have the feeling they won't care much about FB spin unless it correlates with on-field success), they might even try to extend him. Personally, I think they should try to get 2-3 more years now, before he establishes any substantive track record. Moved or not, the Sox would be wise to extend him. Baring a major injury, that would increase his value to us or them. High spin rate fastballs have a history of success. They typically generate more pop-ups and pitchers have better command numbers (they quite often pitch higher in the zone thus have a bigger target). It's what's known as a rising fastball although it realy doesn't rise, it just drops less. There were only three qualifying pitchers last year with higher spin rates, Sherzer, Verlander and Bundy. That's decent company.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2016 20:32:34 GMT -5
Here's the way it played out last year, with the number of games started for each Sox pitcher: Player | Games Started | Price | 35 | Porcello | 33 | Wright | 24 | Buchholz | 21 | Rodriguez | 20 | Pomeranz | 13 | Kelly | 6 | Owens | 5 | O'Sullivan | 4 | Elias | 1 |
There's no reason to think that there won't be a similar distribution in 2017, with different names tucked in there of course. This happens every year, and it's why depth is so important. By the way, the argument about whether Wright or Pomeranz should wag the tail on the rotation dog is about two players who each made it to last year's All-Star game. That should tell us a little bit about where the starting pitching is in relation to the rest of the league. I like your second paragraph more than your first. To be fair you should insert Sales starts into the equation. That renders the quantity of depth as less important. That said I revert back to your first paragraph, our 4,5 & 6 (in no part. order Pomeranz, E-Rod and Wright) have a much higher ceiling than any other staff and their is probably only a few with a higher basement than the Sox. That said our 7,8 & 9 is solid in ELias Johnson and Owens. We have a deeper and more talented rotation than anyone else in the game. We scored more than 100 runs than anyone else in the AL last year the loss of Ortiz, a full season of AB yadda yadda worst case scenario we are competing for the most runs in the AL. Our defense 3b and SS aside is above average. Our bullpen is probably the hardest part to predict. It should be good maybe even very good but there is reason for some doubt as several players who finished strong including Kelly and Barnes very well could lead the team in being the first called upon to relief the starters and they have never done it before for a whole season. I remain optimistic but realize they may be some potential areas of concern. I also disagree with the opening paragraph. With the addition of Sale, we now have 20% of the pitchers in the majors with 200+ innings, it would take one of those three with a long term injury to approach the likelihood of a similar distribution. There's also the unlikely chance that our starters, in general, will start the year so miserably.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2016 20:55:04 GMT -5
There was 6 pitchers last year who pitched 220+ plus innings. The Sox have three of them in Sale, Porcello, and Price.
Ohh and Stephen Wright was one of the league leaders in complete games last year. The Sox might not even need a bullpen this year...
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Post by telson13 on Dec 23, 2016 22:54:29 GMT -5
Hence, "might." If he's a TOR guy (I have the feeling they won't care much about FB spin unless it correlates with on-field success), they might even try to extend him. Personally, I think they should try to get 2-3 more years now, before he establishes any substantive track record. Moved or not, the Sox would be wise to extend him. Baring a major injury, that would increase his value to us or them. High spin rate fastballs have a history of success. They typically generate more pop-ups and pitchers have better command numbers (they quite often pitch higher in the zone thus have a bigger target). It's what's known as a rising fastball although it realy doesn't rise, it just drops less. There were only three qualifying pitchers last year with higher spin rates, Sherzer, Verlander and Bundy. That's decent company. Yeah, high 4-seam spin rates are also associated with high K rates, which explains Pomeranz's high K rate despite very pedestrian fastball velocity. For the Bernoulli effect you noted...batters tend to swing under them because they drop ever so slightly less. They're also harder to differentiate from the curve, because batters see spin rate and not directionality, which leads to better swing-and-miss with the CB. I've advocated signing him to a 2-3 year extension elsewhere as well; I agree that that's probably the best way to maximize value balanced with risk/cost reduction. But as to whether they keep him or not, what's going to matter is results, not simply 4-seam spin rate. Edit: I should say, batters can see axis, not rotational direction. Because the axis of a 4-seam and CB is roughly perpendicular to ball path, but the rotation is opposite for the two pitches.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2016 23:29:10 GMT -5
Moved or not, the Sox would be wise to extend him. Baring a major injury, that would increase his value to us or them. High spin rate fastballs have a history of success. They typically generate more pop-ups and pitchers have better command numbers (they quite often pitch higher in the zone thus have a bigger target). It's what's known as a rising fastball although it realy doesn't rise, it just drops less. There were only three qualifying pitchers last year with higher spin rates, Sherzer, Verlander and Bundy. That's decent company. Yeah, high 4-seam spin rates are also associated with high K rates, which explains Pomeranz's high K rate despite very pedestrian fastball velocity. For the Bernoulli effect you noted...batters tend to swing under them because they drop ever so slightly less. They're also harder to differentiate from the curve, because batters see spin rate and not directionality, which leads to better swing-and-miss with the CB. I've advocated signing him to a 2-3 year extension elsewhere as well; I agree that that's probably the best way to maximize value balanced with risk/cost reduction. But as to whether they keep him or not, what's going to matter is results, not simply 4-seam spin rate. Edit: I should say, batters can see axis, not rotational direction. Because the axis of a 4-seam and CB is roughly perpendicular to ball path, but the rotation is opposite for the two pitches. Here's an excellent Statcast video on the subject. It's also a great reminder of just how badly we were ripped off on the Hanley/Beckett trade. m.mlb.com/video/v1211623983/what-spin-rate-can-reveal
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Post by telluricrook on Dec 24, 2016 2:49:15 GMT -5
Yeah, high 4-seam spin rates are also associated with high K rates, which explains Pomeranz's high K rate despite very pedestrian fastball velocity. For the Bernoulli effect you noted...batters tend to swing under them because they drop ever so slightly less. They're also harder to differentiate from the curve, because batters see spin rate and not directionality, which leads to better swing-and-miss with the CB. I've advocated signing him to a 2-3 year extension elsewhere as well; I agree that that's probably the best way to maximize value balanced with risk/cost reduction. But as to whether they keep him or not, what's going to matter is results, not simply 4-seam spin rate. Edit: I should say, batters can see axis, not rotational direction. Because the axis of a 4-seam and CB is roughly perpendicular to ball path, but the rotation is opposite for the two pitches. Here's an excellent Statcast video on the subject. It's also a great reminder of just how badly we were ripped off on the Hanley/Beckett trade. m.mlb.com/video/v1211623983/what-spin-rate-can-revealHow does this show we got ripped off in the Hanley/Beckett trade ? We got Mikey Lowell one of my favorite Red Sox of all time!
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 24, 2016 8:14:57 GMT -5
And they won a WS as a result of the trade.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 24, 2016 8:23:58 GMT -5
One of my favorites as well, series MVP. It was said in jest.... I've said all along, if we win a WS or three in the next 3 years I'll be happy with the trades.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Dec 24, 2016 12:07:28 GMT -5
This is the best rotation 1 through 6 that we have had in years.
One of our 3 lefties in AAA I feel will step up. I feel that Henry Owens is most likely to take a step forward as the 7th starter.
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