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2017 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by larrycook on Dec 26, 2016 1:47:09 GMT -5
This is the best rotation 1 through 6 that we have had in years. One of our 3 lefties in AAA I feel will step up. I feel that Henry Owens is most likely to take a step forward as the 7th starter. I really hope you are correct. If he can cut the walks down, he has a chance to be that guy in Aaa that steps up.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 26, 2016 13:24:16 GMT -5
Yeah, high 4-seam spin rates are also associated with high K rates, which explains Pomeranz's high K rate despite very pedestrian fastball velocity. For the Bernoulli effect you noted...batters tend to swing under them because they drop ever so slightly less. They're also harder to differentiate from the curve, because batters see spin rate and not directionality, which leads to better swing-and-miss with the CB. I've advocated signing him to a 2-3 year extension elsewhere as well; I agree that that's probably the best way to maximize value balanced with risk/cost reduction. But as to whether they keep him or not, what's going to matter is results, not simply 4-seam spin rate. Edit: I should say, batters can see axis, not rotational direction. Because the axis of a 4-seam and CB is roughly perpendicular to ball path, but the rotation is opposite for the two pitches. Here's an excellent Statcast video on the subject. It's also a great reminder of just how badly we were ripped off on the Hanley/Beckett trade. m.mlb.com/video/v1211623983/what-spin-rate-can-revealMike Lowell is a great guy for that job. Articulate and intelligent but very relatable in how he describes things. Interesting about Estrada...obviously axis has a lot to do with "success" of a pitch and spin value. Koji is another guy I think of as maximizing the combo of spin and axis (and by adding the splitter, brutal changes of eye level).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 26, 2016 20:28:09 GMT -5
Between this and other previous comments, it sounds like the plan is pretty much set. “Wright didn’t pitch past much of the second half,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “Pomeranz we like a great deal. Rodriguez we think is a quality young guy that is going to pitch at the big-league level.
“We’ll just sort of sort through that as we go through it.” . . . . STARTING PITCHERS
Primary 2016 starters: LHP David Price, RHP Rick Porcello, RHP Steven Wright, RHP Clay Buchholz, LHP Drew Pomeranz.
Expected 2017 starters: Price, Porcello, LHP Chris Sale, Rodriguez, Pomeranz.
Major league depth: Wright.
Prospects to watch: LHP Roenis Elias, LHP Brian Johnson, LHP Henry Owens.
www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/26/red-sox-have-strong-arms-starting-rotation/gea1k9G0yDQnqs8vGEOgNL/story.html
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 26, 2016 22:08:54 GMT -5
The only way Elias is depth is if he's awful in spring training and then clears waivers after he's DFA'd. He's not one to watch, unless he's so good in spring training that a team actually trades for him.
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Post by jmei on Dec 26, 2016 22:42:03 GMT -5
I think Roenis Elias has an option left. He used option years in 2015 and 2016, but I don't think he used one in 2014 (based on his game logs, doesn't look like he ever spent 20 days in the minors). If that's the case, he wouldn't need to clear waivers or anything and could just be optioned to AAA next year (and would serve as valuable SP depth).
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Post by bigpupp on Dec 26, 2016 23:31:07 GMT -5
I think Roenis Elias has an option left. He used option years in 2015 and 2016, but I don't think he used one in 2014 (based on his game logs, doesn't look like he ever spent 20 days in the minors). If that's the case, he wouldn't need to clear waivers or anything and could just be optioned to AAA next year (and would serve as valuable SP depth). Looks the same to me. Contract was purchased at the end of spring training of that year. He was optioned on 8/8 but recalled on 8/18.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2016 4:24:13 GMT -5
brisox pointed out Elias option a week ago and it was changed on the 40 man page. He's depth.
It also should be noted that, again after the brisox post, SP has changed the projected PawSox rotation.
Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Elias, acquisition. Prior to the brisox post Olmos and Walden were listed as starters and Kelly was listed as a reliever in Boston.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2016 9:05:27 GMT -5
There is not a single source of options remaining anywhere on the internet that I can ever count on. It's so confusing every year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2016 9:33:46 GMT -5
There is not a single source of options remaining anywhere on the internet that I can ever count on. It's so confusing every year. Until the spring, it's pretty much all speculation because it assumes everyone is healthy and performing as expected. I'm under the assumption that the above is plan A. Moving Kelly to the Pawtucket rotation makes up for the depth loss in the Buchholz trade and makes room for Barnes in Boston. If this is the plan, we're now back to 10 deep for starters and the Pawtucket rotation will be as solid as its ever been. Could make for an interesting trade deadline this year when Smith is also due back.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 27, 2016 10:07:45 GMT -5
I would be pretty bummed if the Sox sent Kelly to AAA to get stretched out as a starter again. It was a small sample size but Kelly seemed to take to the bullpen well. The major league bullpen needs Kelly in it more than they need him in AAA as depth for the rotation in my mind especially from what I have seen he just isn't a quality major league starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2016 10:23:01 GMT -5
There is not a single source of options remaining anywhere on the internet that I can ever count on. It's so confusing every year. Until the spring, it's pretty much all speculation because it assumes everyone is healthy and performing as expected. I'm under the assumption that the above is plan A. Moving Kelly to the Pawtucket rotation makes up for the depth loss in the Buchholz trade and makes room for Barnes in Boston. If this is the plan, we're now back to 10 deep for starters and the Pawtucket rotation will be as solid as its ever been. Could make for an interesting trade deadline this year when Smith is also due back. There doesn't need to be speculation on options remaining. Someone just needs to keep track of them. Moving Kelly to AAA is a horrible idea. He could possibly be the best reliever in the bullpen and we know what he's like as a starter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2016 12:13:43 GMT -5
To be clear here, I'm just regurgitating what I've seen but, playing the devils advocate, what team in baseball has a better #7 ? My biggest issue with Kelly wasn't potential or repertoire, it was durability. He's never pitched a full season of baseball and at Pawtucket, they could limit his use. That also moves Owens, Johnson and Elias down a rung.
There's also that with Kelly in Boston as a reliever, either Barnes is in Pawtucket or someone has to go. That situation could become sticky when Smith is ready. That also means we're essentially just looking at the minimal contribution difference between two middle innings guys, Barnes and Kelly. There's a slim chance that it will have much of an impact.
If it all worked out, think of the position DD will be in at the trade deadline.
ADD: It also puts a righty at the top of the lefty heavy PawSox rotation and we still have Ross and a killer LOOGY/ROOGY (if used correctly, lol) combo in Abad and Hembree.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2016 12:40:56 GMT -5
To be clear here, I'm just regurgitating what I've seen but, playing the devils advocate, what team in baseball has a better #7 ? My biggest issue with Kelly wasn't potential or repertoire, it was durability. He's never pitched a full season of baseball and at Pawtucket, they could limit his use. That also moves Owens, Johnson and Elias down a rung. There's also that with Kelly in Boston as a reliever, either Barnes is in Pawtucket or someone has to go. That situation could become sticky when Smith is ready. That also means we're essentially just looking at the minimal contribution difference between two middle innings guys, Barnes and Kelly. There's a slim chance that it will have much of an impact. If it all worked out, think of the position DD will be in at the trade deadline. ADD: It also puts a righty at the top of the lefty heavy PawSox rotation and we still have Ross and a killer LOOGY/ROOGY (if used correctly, lol) combo in Abad and Hembree. I'd trade Hembree or DFA Abad to make room for Barnes. Kelly looked really good in the bullpen. I wouldn't be super surprised if he's better than Kimbrel.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 27, 2016 12:58:48 GMT -5
I don't want to screw Kelly up like we did with Bard. The guy was just born to be a reliever.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 27, 2016 15:09:21 GMT -5
To be clear here, I'm just regurgitating what I've seen but, playing the devils advocate, what team in baseball has a better #7 ? My biggest issue with Kelly wasn't potential or repertoire, it was durability. He's never pitched a full season of baseball and at Pawtucket, they could limit his use. That also moves Owens, Johnson and Elias down a rung. There's also that with Kelly in Boston as a reliever, either Barnes is in Pawtucket or someone has to go. That situation could become sticky when Smith is ready. That also means we're essentially just looking at the minimal contribution difference between two middle innings guys, Barnes and Kelly. There's a slim chance that it will have much of an impact. If it all worked out, think of the position DD will be in at the trade deadline. ADD: It also puts a righty at the top of the lefty heavy PawSox rotation and we still have Ross and a killer LOOGY/ROOGY (if used correctly, lol) combo in Abad and Hembree. I'd trade Hembree or DFA Abad to make room for Barnes. Kelly looked really good in the bullpen. I wouldn't be super surprised if he's better than Kimbrel. Kelly looked awesome to end 2015 as a starter if you remember. He just hasn't shown he can be good for a whole year. Hembree was good for a full year last year. Kelly is just like Buchholz, you just don't know what your going to get.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 27, 2016 15:32:12 GMT -5
In 2015 from July 22nd until his last start on September 15th Joe Kelly averaged a bit above 5 innings per start. I wouldn't call that an awesome stretch for a starter no matter what his other stats look like. Even when Joe Kelly has pitched well the team was lucky if he could make it into the 7th inning, he belongs in the bullpen.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 27, 2016 15:42:19 GMT -5
In 2015 from July 22nd until his last start on September 15th Joe Kelly averaged a bit above 5 innings per start. I wouldn't call that an awesome stretch for a starter no matter what his other stats look like. Even when Joe Kelly has pitched well the team was lucky if he could make it into the 7th inning, he belongs in the bullpen. I agree he belongs in bullpen. I just think some people are reading too much into a good couple of months in bullpen.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2016 15:57:23 GMT -5
I'd trade Hembree or DFA Abad to make room for Barnes. Kelly looked really good in the bullpen. I wouldn't be super surprised if he's better than Kimbrel. Kelly looked awesome to end 2015 as a starter if you remember. He just hasn't shown he can be good for a whole year. Hembree was good for a full year last year. Kelly is just like Buchholz, you just don't know what your going to get. I thought Kelly got a little lucky at the end of 2015 because his peripherals didn't improve enough to go along with it. Hembree is bad against RHB.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2016 15:59:04 GMT -5
In 2015 from July 22nd until his last start on September 15th Joe Kelly averaged a bit above 5 innings per start. I wouldn't call that an awesome stretch for a starter no matter what his other stats look like. Even when Joe Kelly has pitched well the team was lucky if he could make it into the 7th inning, he belongs in the bullpen. I agree he belongs in bullpen. I just think some people are reading too much into a good couple of months in bullpen. I said I wouldn't be surprised if he was great in the bullpen because of what I saw at the end of last season. I'd much rather see if he can become the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis than to see if he can be a decent 7th starter in AAA.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 28, 2016 8:11:39 GMT -5
Kelly looked awesome to end 2015 as a starter if you remember. He just hasn't shown he can be good for a whole year. Hembree was good for a full year last year. Kelly is just like Buchholz, you just don't know what your going to get. I thought Kelly got a little lucky at the end of 2015 because his peripherals didn't improve enough to go along with it. Hembree is bad against RHB. Hembree is dominant against righties, but struggles against lefties. Considering like 70% of big league hitters are righties I don't see the problem with that if used right. He can also go multiple innings which is important.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 28, 2016 8:24:35 GMT -5
I agree he belongs in bullpen. I just think some people are reading too much into a good couple of months in bullpen. I said I wouldn't be surprised if he was great in the bullpen because of what I saw at the end of last season. I'd much rather see if he can become the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis than to see if he can be a decent 7th starter in AAA. Like I said I want him in Bullpen, but if it's Barnes or Kelly going to AAA I say it should be Kelly. Let's see if can continue to be dominant in pen or if he just had another good run to end a year.
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 28, 2016 9:14:29 GMT -5
I'd trade Hembree or DFA Abad to make room for Barnes. Kelly looked really good in the bullpen. I wouldn't be super surprised if he's better than Kimbrel. Kelly looked awesome to end 2015 as a starter if you remember. He just hasn't shown he can be good for a whole year. Hembree was good for a full year last year. Kelly is just like Buchholz, you just don't know what your going to get. I think you definitely know what you're going to get with Kelly as a starter, that's the problem.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 28, 2016 9:23:32 GMT -5
There is not a single source of options remaining anywhere on the internet that I can ever count on. It's so confusing every year. Have you tried Cott's Contracts?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 28, 2016 9:30:54 GMT -5
Until the spring, it's pretty much all speculation because it assumes everyone is healthy and performing as expected. I'm under the assumption that the above is plan A. Moving Kelly to the Pawtucket rotation makes up for the depth loss in the Buchholz trade and makes room for Barnes in Boston. If this is the plan, we're now back to 10 deep for starters and the Pawtucket rotation will be as solid as its ever been. Could make for an interesting trade deadline this year when Smith is also due back. There doesn't need to be speculation on options remaining. Someone just needs to keep track of them. Moving Kelly to AAA is a horrible idea. He could possibly be the best reliever in the bullpen and we know what he's like as a starter. What indication is there that Kelly is not going to the pen? It makes all the sense in the world. Side Note: Brentz should not be listed as a bubble spot for the roster for Boston but Rutledge should be. I guess that depends on where you see Kelly heading, for me at least the bullpen seems obvious.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 28, 2016 9:34:29 GMT -5
There is not a single source of options remaining anywhere on the internet that I can ever count on. It's so confusing every year. Have you tried Cott's Contracts? They don't keep track of options. FWIW, we keep track but where we'll sometimes slip up is when the team acquires guys (e.g., Elias). We're pretty confident on guys the org has drafted. The other problem is that the rules are tricky. Recall last year when Escobar had a fourth option because the Giants only had him on an active roster for 80-something days the first year he was in A-ball. That was a weird one.
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