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2017 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by telson13 on Jan 3, 2017 12:42:40 GMT -5
Agreed. It also seems unlikely they'd trade Wright since he's outstanding SP depth. Actually, given their rotation and the possibility (likelihood?) that they're good for over 900 innings, the team is reasonably constructed to be able to carry a RH specialist (Hembree) and a LOOGY (Abad, for now). Thornburg and Ross have minimal platoon splits, meaning they're the prime "8th" and "7th" inning guys, respectively, with each good for more than an inning. And I'd hate to see them send Barnes to AAA, because 1) I think he's going to take a big step forward, and 2) he's eminently capable of multi-inning stints, especially if he keeps his pitch counts reasonable. While I trust brisox based on his terrific track record re: source info, I'm sad to think of Kelly in AAA as a starter; his track record suggests he's just not a starter, and his career relief numbers are quite good. I also believe that, given the almost-stupid-high premium on relievers, that he'd generate (substantially) more value as a trade option pitching in relief versus in AAA as a starter. I also think he'd be valuable to the big club in an 8th-inning shared role. I don't see Scott having a secured place unless there's an injury/terrible performance, or Abad gets moved. I'm not sure MLB batters would "adjust" him into obsolescence (think Okajima), but he just doesn't have the track record yet to know. Hopefully Barnes breaks out or Hembree develops a cutter, and there's an excess of good arms when Smith comes back. I'm not sold on Kimbrel at all, as his performance has followed a fairly steady downward trend since his first couple of years. I'd like to see them have someone able to take his spot if he falters, with depth enough to fill spots down the line. Smith coming back pre-deadline would be a nice addition, but would probably force a shake-up. Kelly adds value as a starter if and only if two of the top six guys get hurt simultaneously for more than a start or two, and he significantly outpitches all of Owens, Johnson, and Elias. OTOH, there's a huge downgrade from a guy who pitched as an elite relief ace after his conversion, to a long reliever with big platoon and leverage splits -- especially when you've handed that guy to an incompetent bullpen manager prone to bringing in his worst relievers in high-leverage situations. One might also ask oneself why the team with the best starting rotation in MLB and a legitimate 2016 All-Star starting pitcher as their long man needs a second long man. Instead, of, you know, a guy who may well be the best reliever in the organization. Of course, I do find it credible that a team dumb enough to do the Sale trade, and dumb enough to keep Abad on the roster, would be dumb enough to keep Hembree (who's a probable goner when Smith is healthy, anyway) and send Kelly down. Edit: once everyone other than Smith is healthy, I'd rather see them move Abad than Hembree, but they both should be out of the picture once Smith is healthy, too. I think they hired Dave Stewart and just didn't tell anyone.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2017 13:23:22 GMT -5
I don't think acquiring Chris Sale is ever a bad idea. Sure he might not be as good as Moncada and Kopech 5 years down the road if Moncada doesn't bust and Kopech doesn't flame out but getting better in a area of importance is never a bad idea.
Would the late 1990's Yankees would of been better or worse with Pedro Martinez instead of going to the Sox?
I think of that as the same concept. The Sox are built like those Yankee teams right now. Sale directly adds more innings, strikeouts, and more guaranteed effectiveness in arguably the most important area in a baseball game.
The only complaint that I have about Sale is that the Sox acquired him later in his prime by the age of 28. Sure that part stinks a little and it wouldn't of been as promising as a young Jose Fernandez if he were still alive but there's really nothing close in the market to what Sale was offering and brings to the table. Plus, I think there's enough deception in Sale's delivery to make him really effective in his 30's even with the eventual velocity loss. He's going to be great for the next 5 years if he stays healthy, and he'll probably be really good for another 2-3 years after that. His off speed stuff is really nasty, I can't see him being terrible anytime soon. The only cloud he has is the unknown certainty of health and to this point he's been extraordinarily healthy despite a funky delivery. Healthy pitchers who can stay healthy tend to last longer. Once he gets a bad arm injury, all bets are off I suppose though.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 3, 2017 13:35:18 GMT -5
I don't think acquiring Chris Sale is ever a bad idea. Sure he might not be as good as Moncada and Kopech 5 years down the road if Moncada doesn't bust and Kopech doesn't flame out but getting better in a area of importance is never a bad idea. Would the late 1990's Yankees would of been better or worse with Pedro Martinez instead of going to the Sox? I think of that as the same concept. The Sox are built like those Yankee teams right now. Sale directly adds more innings, strikeouts, and more guaranteed effectiveness in arguably the most important area in a baseball game. The only complaint that I have about Sale is that the Sox acquired him later in his prime by the age of 28. Sure that part stinks a little and it wouldn't of been as promising as a young Jose Fernandez if he were still alive but there's really nothing close in the market to what Sale was offering and brings to the table. Plus, I think there's enough deception in Sale's delivery to make him really effective in his 30's even with the eventual velocity loss. He's going to be great for the next 5 years if he stays healthy, and he'll probably be really good for another 2-3 years after that. His off speed stuff is really nasty, I can't see him being terrible anytime soon. The only cloud he has is the unknown certainty of health and to this point he's been extraordinarily healthy despite a funky delivery. Healthy pitchers who can stay healthy tend to last longer. Once he gets a bad arm injury, all bets are off I suppose though. Ever? Surely there has to be a line in which it's not smart. It wouldn't be smart to trade Benintendi, Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Moncada, Kopech, etc. for him. That's the point. The entire league is dominated by youth, not by 30 somethings now. That's the difference between the 90s and today.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2017 13:43:30 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Sale will last well into his 30's with ease. I can't guarantee as much because we all can't predict the future but I'd bank on a guy like Sale. Yes getting a guy like Sale isn't a bad idea ever in my book, just wish they could of gotten him 2 or 3 years ago. The good and bad part about the original Sale contract extension was that Sale wasted a lot of his prime on a bad white sox team for years. The good part is that made him a good commodity to have available in a trade that's controllable.
I'm willing to bet that Sale is a outlier to the traditional 20's youth dominates and 30's players normally can't. It's a better bet than than banking on Moncada to ever become a superstar, like his tools suggest imo.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2017 15:03:52 GMT -5
Update on ERod:
Peter Abraham
Red Sox lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez is walking without pain and is expected to be ready for spring training after injuring his right knee while pitching in Venezuela on Dec. 27. The Sox are planning to have Rodriguez come to Boston to be examined by team doctors. But no date has been set. “He is feeling fine at this point and is walking without pain. So we feel no sense of urgency,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said on Tuesday. Rodriguez remained in Venezuela over the holidays but will soon return to the United States. The 23-year-old lefthander started four games in the Venezuela Winter League and pitched well, allowing four runs over 10 2/3 innings and striking out 12. Rodriguez was 3-7 with a 4.71 earned run average in 20 starts for the Red Sox last season and is expected to compete for one of the rotation spots. Rodriguez was hoping to pitch for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. The injury could preclude that but Dombrowski said no decision has been reached.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 3, 2017 16:09:16 GMT -5
Is it smart to have what could be a key member of your rotation pitching on a wet mound? Unless it wasn't and I'm assuming.
It's January I really feel like the younger guys who are getting used to the MLB schedule and played significantly in 2016 dont need to be playing (I can see vasquez playing to fine tune his game). But Erod was dynamite at the end of last year at times, feels like sox are playing with fire with that potentially bum knee
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 3, 2017 17:01:09 GMT -5
Is it smart to have what could be a key member of your rotation pitching on a wet mound? Unless it wasn't and I'm assuming. It's January I really feel like the younger guys who are getting used to the MLB schedule and played significantly in 2016 dont need to be playing (I can see vasquez playing to fine tune his game). But Erod was dynamite at the end of last year at times, feels like sox are playing with fire with that potentially bum knee I've not seen that the mound was wet anywhere at all, so I think you're assuming that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2017 19:52:53 GMT -5
Is it smart to have what could be a key member of your rotation pitching on a wet mound? Unless it wasn't and I'm assuming. It's January I really feel like the younger guys who are getting used to the MLB schedule and played significantly in 2016 dont need to be playing (I can see vasquez playing to fine tune his game). But Erod was dynamite at the end of last year at times, feels like sox are playing with fire with that potentially bum knee I've not seen that the mound was wet anywhere at all, so I think you're assuming that. lol, sorry this is funny Eduardo Rodriguez (pictured) tweaked his right knee slipping on a wet mound during his start for Magallanes on Tuesday, news.soxprospects.com/2017/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-rodriguez.html
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Post by rookie13 on Jan 3, 2017 19:58:22 GMT -5
If the Sox decide that Rodriguez either a)isn't pitching well enough in ST to earn a rotation spot, b) isn't performing nearly as well as Wright/Pomeranz, or c) he's hurt, the Sox could still stash him in AAA right?
I personally hope he makes the rotation along with Pomeranz, with Wright being the long man in the BP. What do you think their best course of action is if Rodriguez doesn't seem ready to open the season in the ML rotation?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 3, 2017 22:03:01 GMT -5
If the Sox decide that Rodriguez either a)isn't pitching well enough in ST to earn a rotation spot, b) isn't performing nearly as well as Wright/Pomeranz, or c) he's hurt, the Sox could still stash him in AAA right? I personally hope he makes the rotation along with Pomeranz, with Wright being the long man in the BP. What do you think their best course of action is if Rodriguez doesn't seem ready to open the season in the ML rotation? Why are you jumping to that conclusion? I'd rather wait and see what happens.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2017 22:50:21 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2017 10:34:02 GMT -5
Here's where Kelly mentioned Bannister in the WEEI podcast: “In the playoffs, it was all sliders. I kind of tweaked the sliders with (assistant pitching coach) Brian Bannister I think the first day in Cleveland. We held the same grip, but did something with my wrist, the way I cocked it a little bit different and I played catch with them warming up before batting practice for about 10 minutes. I liked how it spun, and he liked how it spun and how it went straight down and disappeared, kind of like a Chris Archer-type slider. I got into the game and I shocked to it because I wanted to test it out and got a good swing and miss on it. So I was like, ‘OK, I’m going to keep throwing it.’ There was one point probably in my third appearance in the playoffs where 10 of my 13 pitches I threw were all sliders. I didn’t want to throw it that much but I kind of fell in love with it because it was generating so many swings and misses and so many foul balls and weak contact. It was something I learned probably 10 minutes before Game 1. I was like, ‘You know what, why not?’ That is kind of my personality. If I see something I see works, or I think will work, it’s something I’m going to try. fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/01/04/story-of-how-joe-kelly-invented-dominating-new-pitch-10-minutes-before-playoffs/There's no reason to believe that wouldn't be effective as either a starter or a reliever.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2017 11:44:28 GMT -5
Once again: Joe Kelly is older than Chris Sale and Rick Porcello.
The reason to believe that he won't be effective as a starter is that he has gotten 79 starts already in his career. He has a 4.13 ERA, 176 walks, and 308 strikeouts in 431 1/3 innings - that strikeout total being particularly poor and an indicator that his overall stuff isn't as good as his velocity suggests it should be.
I swear, it's going to be 2065, I'll be on my deathbed, and I'll be hearing about how Joe Kelly should stay in the rotation because he's finally figured it out, finally made that one adjustment that will make his velocity play. Everyone remembers how he finished 2015 on a high note with a strong September, and a signal that that he had turned the corner? Well, he was worse than ever in 2016 - save for the one excellent start against Cleveland in May, which, of course, convinced everyone that he'd turned the corner. I thought the way Felix Doubront would have a semi-hot streak every couple months every time he was about to lose his job frustrated me. It turns out I was just being prepared for the Joe Kelly experience.
Also, too - I wouldn't care if I didn't think he had a chance to be an impact reliever. If he was just bad? Yeah, sure, send him to Pawtucket to do his thing. But sending someone who should be one of the team's three best relievers to the minors to go back to starting because he threw 10 good pitches in a playoff game as a reliever? Ugh.
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Post by Coreno on Jan 4, 2017 12:02:42 GMT -5
If the argument is that they think he's taken a step forward and can start, why would he be tabbed for AAA as a 28 year old? He was in AAA last year because he was hurt, stunk, and was being converted to a reliever. He should be in the majors, and that path for him is in the bullpen.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 4, 2017 12:41:34 GMT -5
Yeah I agree with the 2 posts above, especially James whole post about Kelly.
Every time someone suggests that Joe Kelly should start, just stop and delete your post.
The ONLY chance he has to stick in the majors is as a reliever.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2017 12:59:25 GMT -5
That actually goes farther than I'm willing to. Pitchers older and worse than Kelly have turned it around. But there's evidence that his stuff/skills played up in the bullpen, there's more evidence that he's not a particularly good starter right now, and a one-game phantom pitch shouldn't be enough to sway that. The best and most sensible thing for the Red Sox is for him to be in the major league bullpen.
If Kelly wants to start? Then he should pitch well out of the bullpen for a couple years and have his agent look for teams willing to give him a shot as a starter when he's a free agent.
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Post by thursty on Jan 4, 2017 13:32:29 GMT -5
And of course no amount of evidence is sufficient for some - they'll remain convinced that their projection of 2016 Kelly as an above-average #3 starter was spot-on Well, perhaps it was - he was an above average #3 starter last year - just in Pawtucket
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2017 14:05:55 GMT -5
A bit crusty today, aren't we. Joe Kelly is 28, that sure is old.
I'm just not buying that the marginal difference between him and Barnes as a reliever is greater the the possibility that a right handed starter at Pawtucket who has what, zero other right handed starters, backing a staff which projects to have 4 left handed starters will have value.
I'm also not basing it just on 10 pitches in the playoffs, I'm basing it off pitch mix differences between when he was a starter and when he was a reliever.
We'll see what the Sox chose. I'm pretty sure it will largely be Bannister's call. Of course, they don't have our expertise in the matter but it's their decision. He has options, Barnes has options.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2017 14:28:36 GMT -5
A bit crusty today, aren't we. Joe Kelly is 28, that sure is old. In terms of players with a mixed (at best) record of success in a role as a major leaguer, it's kind of old. Like I said above, there are obviously 28-year-old pitchers who have put it together. But they're the exception, and they usually have a more compelling reason than Kelly does to think they'll be an exception. For me, Kelly's 18.1% K rate since the trade as a starter strongly conflicts with the narrative that his stuff is so good that it makes the upside worthwhile. Well first off, Steven Wright would be ahead of Kelly, right? I hope? So that would make Kelly the #3 righty starter. Also, the marginal difference isn't, or shouldn't be, between Kelly and Barnes. Both those guys would project to be in the bullpen. It's the dropoff from Kelly to either Hembree or Abad, a gap that is notable both in likely present performance and in future upside. Worth it, to me, to risk the difference between Kelly and Johnson/Owens/Elias as the #7 starter. If his pitch mix as a reliever made him more effective as a reliever than as a starter, I'd consider that another data point why he'll continue to be an effective as a reliever. Seriously with the "the Red Sox have more information so we're not allowed to have opinions on it" stuff? Come on. EDIT: I should point out that I hope I'm wrong here. Kelly seems like a legitimately funny dude and is a great interview and from all accounts he puts in the work. His teammates obviously like him. I'd be thrilled if he comes out and is suddenly a useful mid-rotation starter. I just don't see it.
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Post by jmei on Jan 4, 2017 14:35:30 GMT -5
I've not yet heard a convincing argument for why the handedness of the rotation (or the rotation depth) matters.
Kelly is seventh on the starting pitcher depth chart. He's higher than that on the reliever depth chart. The difference between Kelly and Hembree seems larger than the difference between Kelly and Henry Owens.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2017 14:47:35 GMT -5
Several factors to consider...
I'll start with the Sox decision. I'm basing that on BriSox' post. If you aren't familiar, he (assumed) has a very strong history of what appears to be inside information that almost always comes to pass. He rarely posts and it's typically when the board is looking in a different direction. Yes, the Sox have the ability to watch, close up his pitches.
Now if you guys were to assume (like I do) that BriSox is correct that it's the current Sox point of view, you would be looking for reasons to justify it. The three main justifications for me are that without him in the starter mix, 7 out of our top 9 pitchers are left handed. How many left handed swing men can you think of ? A knuckleballer also makes some sense there, so that ratio might actually be 7 out of 8.
Second, his pitch mix last year was still a starters pitch mix. You'd expect a rise in 4 and 2 seamers with a move to the pen but, that's not what happened. He pretty much phased out his crappy change up and increased sliders and curves.
Third, Bannister.
lol, he's funny but most of the time I had no clue what he was talking about.
ADD: The crusty comment was directed towards thursty's ignorance. I should have separated the age comment.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2017 14:48:34 GMT -5
I've not yet heard a convincing argument for why the handedness of the rotation (or the rotation depth) matters. Kelly is seventh on the starting pitcher depth chart. He's higher than that on the reliever depth chart. The difference between Kelly and Hembree seems larger than the difference between Kelly and Henry Owens. Hembree has no options. Barnes has options.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2017 15:24:46 GMT -5
Different topic, as far as I know, we don't know how Wright is recovering. Last I saw, he was going for a second opinion but I never heard anything after that. I know I'm significantly older but I had a shoulder bursa sack injury that took about 8 months to not feel restricted then a couple more months to feel 100%. Mine was slightly different, mine was a pull, his a push. Hopefully he learned not to slide head first. lol, I learned never to tell my wife "Jump, I'll catch you."
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2017 16:27:30 GMT -5
I've not yet heard a convincing argument for why the handedness of the rotation (or the rotation depth) matters. Kelly is seventh on the starting pitcher depth chart. He's higher than that on the reliever depth chart. The difference between Kelly and Hembree seems larger than the difference between Kelly and Henry Owens. Hembree has no options. Barnes has options. Who cares how many options Hembree has? He's a borderline major league player and nowhere near as good as Kelly. We should put the best team on the field, not give games away early in the season until they finally realize it. I'd actually rather stretch Barnes out in AAA than Kelly if we really need to subtract from the bullpen to strengthen our 7th/8th starters.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 4, 2017 16:29:51 GMT -5
Different topic, as far as I know, we don't know how Wright is recovering. Last I saw, he was going for a second opinion but I never heard anything after that. I know I'm significantly older but I had a shoulder bursa sack injury that took about 8 months to not feel restricted then a couple more months to feel 100%. Mine was slightly different, mine was a pull, his a push. Hopefully he learned not to slide head first. lol, I learned never to tell my wife "Jump, I'll catch you." He might have been able to pitch in the ALCS if they advanced. Should be ready for ST.
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