DD & Running of the Sox Dec 11, 2016 13:55:48 GMT -5 via mobile
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2016 13:55:48 GMT -5
2) I think the spectrum is much more complex that "win-now" vs. "prospect hoard." So it's not always easy to frame. From my own standpoint, I've disliked essentially every (major) trade Dombrowski has made so far involving prospects, with the exception (marginally pro-) of the Thornburg deal. And the reason, for me, is much less about prospects as future stars, and much more about prospects as future low-cost production (and current depth). Margot could've helped a lot early last year. Moncada and Kopech later this year. The Pomeranz deal because I thought there were less costly options (though my dislike of that trade is mild). On purely individual, value levels, each trade had its merits, and I think none was particularly good or bad. But they were not made in a vacuum, which leads me to:
3) It's tough to call Kimbrel or Carson Smith a "win" at this point. I think Smith will be. Pomeranz to this point is probably a loss, but it's still very early. Sale, who knows. But when one looks at the overriding direction of the team (and here's my counterpoint), DD has drastically reduced their future flexibility and locked them into a high-salary structure that may very well adversely effect their ability to retain their current players, and almost certainly, pursue new ones. He's taken a huge gamble in obliterating the farm for a three-year window. I don't see that as a wise approach at all for a franchise's long-term health. To me, its impetuous and impatient, and while speeding up the timeline to maximal success, I think it's almost assuredly severely shortened the timeframe of that success, while not at all improving the peak. It's just poor (specifically, selfish) business management in my view: it's the come-in-guts-things-make-yourself-rich-then-run approach. It might be "smart" when viewed from Dombrowski's standpoint, since he'll look good by standing on Cherington's shoulders. But it only helps him, in the long term, it will hurt the franchise significantly, I'm certain.
How can one call Pomeranz trade a loss? Loss of what? AE has never played a game. If the point is he could have been part of a different trade, that is just theory (and assumes trading prospects CAN be ok). Pomeranz was up and down for Sox, so that makes it wait-and-see, but if he has .01 WAR this year and AE never makes the bigs, it's a practical win (and people can play alternative reality trades forever).
AE, Kopech, Margot: not a game between them. In return, all star, all star, all star. At least 2 of those all stars have high likelihood of repeat all star seasons, and Pom has high potential to be really solid at #4. I won't call that a loss for years, if ever (those prospects will have to reach ceilings to make these losses).
The trades for Smith and T'burg are always risky, w/ relievers' health, but combined, they basically gave up Dubon. Not losing sleep. If a GM doesn't try for those power arms, it's gross negligence.
Are you holding against Margot, Kopech, and AE because they haven't played in games yet?
Imo AE should still be here or should of went in the Chris Sale deal. If Dave would of held off on the AE for Pomeranz deal, the Sox could still possibly have one of Kopech or AE here. I hated that trade on principle. The Sox weren't ready to go for it at that point. Now with Sale a half year later, they are.
Edit- Margot has played in some games and could be the starting CF for the Padres next year.