Post by ponch73 on Dec 15, 2016 9:57:37 GMT -5
But I don't hold Moncada in the same esteem you do. I'm more aligned to those Speier comments in which those guys said "it's Beni and its not close.". I do think Sale will be about a 15 war guy over the next 3 years. I think his bottom was in 2015. Therefore for me the cost was more than reasonable for Sale.
I would feel slightly better about this deal if the front office had soured on Moncada for any of a number of reasons -- attitude, K rates, etc. -- that weren't based on an insufficient sample size from his late season callup. That being said, Moncada still has a value, and that value could be exchanged for other resources.
His teams have been huge disappointments - I'm not sure they play for much. It seems the last 4 years Sale's FIP is also tied into IP. So as you are willing to believe in Price - I believe Sale is around 15 WAR for 3 years. I think Price can help but now I think we need the lockdown number 1 post season ACE. Sale isn't assured of that but evidently neither Price nor Porcello isn't assured and that's for certain.
There's no doubt that Sale appears to be a better pitcher than Price. He's younger, for one, and produced an average of 4.9 WAR in the 3 seasons prior to being acquired. Price, in comparison, produced an average of 4.5 WAR in the 3 seasons prior to being acquired. But we have no idea how Sale will respond to Boston or to a playoff environment.
If you believe that Sale will produce 15 WAR over the next 3 years (which, to me, feels like the prevailing consensus), why would you agree to this deal? MLB.com shows Moncada as a top 10 hitting prospect and Kopech as a top 10 pitching prospect. According to this website (http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/), a top 10 hitting prospect and a top 10 pitching prospect together have an expected value of 30 WAR. Even if you hedge their estimates back by 40%, you've given up 18 WAR (not including Basabe and Diaz) for 15 WAR. And you're paying an additional $12 mil a year for the next 3 years for the privilege of doing so.
And as for starters - I look at how the Red Sox won their titles - it definitely came from at least one dominant starter with their 3 world series championships. The 2004 team had Schilling. No Schilling no championship. Pedro was at a point that he was struggling mightily vs the Yanks. We needed someone different. Maybe this is what either or both Porcello and Price need. A quirky but highly successful pitcher against our east foes.
Let's not forget that the 2004 team scored an average of 6.7 runs in their 11 postseason wins. They actually scored an average of 5.3 runs in their 3 postseason losses. That kind of run support is a difference-maker. If you gave the 2016 Red Sox postseason starters 6.7 runs of run support, the outcome would have been a lot different.
I think 2007 better supports your thesis of needing a dominant starter in the playoffs. Without Beckett, we don't get past Cleveland in the ALCS. Ironically, in 2007, young prospects named Pedroia and Ellsbury helped put us over the top. And, if memory serves, a young pitcher named Jon Lester won Game 4 of the World Series. Thankfully, Pedroia and Lester weren't shipped off to Minnesota for Johan Santana in the prior offseason. And Santana actually put up a total of 15.4 WAR over 2007, 2008 and 2009!