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jimoh
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Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Dec 17, 2016 14:27:20 GMT -5
But I'm not sure anyone suggested that Moncada would be a bust. meadowparty.com/blog/2016/12/09/klawchat-12916/"Klaw: The Red Sox have a great young core and still have Devers and Groome, so Moncada and Kopech came from strength – and both guys they traded are still fairly high risk. I could see a 30% chance that Moncada busts because he never cuts the strikeout rate enough. There’s probably about that chance, maybe 40%, that Kopech’s a reliever, even though my gut says he’s a high-end starter. So, I get it, and if Sale doesn’t break down it’s going to work out fine, but I also fully understand why some Red Sox fans are flipping out over all the prospects DD has dealt."
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Post by larrycook on Dec 17, 2016 14:56:31 GMT -5
Getting back to dombrowski. He was hired to get us back in the playoffs and hopefully bring us a championship or two. Year 1 - he signs price. Fills a huge big league hole. . Great move. Year 1 - he trades for Kimbrell. Fills a huge big league hole. Consensus is he may have overpaid for a closer. Year 1 - he trades for smith, who people feared would be a tommy John victim sooner rather than later. And of course smith's ucl pops like an old violin string and he pitches no meaningful innings for us. Year 1 - he lucks into a break out year from porcello. Year 1 - he lucks into a bounce back year from Hanley. Year 1 - he lucks into panda going on the dl for the year and gets half a season of production from shaw. Year 1 - he lucks into a great first half from wright. Year 1 - he trades for zeigler after the smith debacle. Year 1 - he trades for Pomeranz, who is a tommy John victim in waiting and the consensus is he overpaid. Year 1 - he messes up swihart who eventually lands on the dl for the year. Year 1 - he lucks into benintendi's brilliance and reaps the benefit of a future stud, End of year 1 - we make the playoffs. The youngsters, not named benintendi, are tight at the plate and price gets lit up like a pinball machine. We are three and done. Year 2 - he trades for chris sale. Consensus is it is an all in situation and he might have overpaid a tad. Year 2 - he trades for thornburg. Another guy on the verge of being a tommy John victim. Concensus is another overpay, Year 2 - signs free agent Moreland. We all yawn! If we win it all in November 2017, it will all be worth it. Bottom line: dombrowski is what he is. A flawed GM. He is great at building pitching staffs and great at identifying bats that produce. But his old weaknesses are still there. He can not build a bullpen to save his life and right now our Achilles heel is our bullpen, just like what happened to him in Detroit. Experience and smarts can get you just so far. He is missing that X factor to get us over the top. And oh by the way, he ran off a ton of young über talented operations people who could have helped him get over his flaws and is now surrounded by yes men. And you thought the 86 year drought was painful? First, I don't agree that the bullpen is an issue. It's a strength, IMO. Second, why are you always on top of acquiring every big name rumored to be available if you're just going to criticize it? forum.soxprospects.com/post/239279^ that was your post when the rumors were much worse than what we eventually gave up. Not sure I ever criticized the acquisition of sale. However my raw poll showed most people thought dombrowski overpaid for sale. Rather than dance about the bullpen's ability or lack thereof, I say we revisit after the 2017 season and hopefully you are 100% correct.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 17, 2016 15:20:53 GMT -5
Getting back to dombrowski. He was hired to get us back in the playoffs and hopefully bring us a championship or two. Year 1 - he signs price. Fills a huge big league hole. . Great move. Year 1 - he trades for Kimbrell. Fills a huge big league hole. Consensus is he may have overpaid for a closer. Year 1 - he trades for smith, who people feared would be a tommy John victim sooner rather than later. And of course smith's ucl pops like an old violin string and he pitches no meaningful innings for us. Year 1 - he lucks into a break out year from porcello. Year 1 - he lucks into a bounce back year from Hanley. Year 1 - he lucks into panda going on the dl for the year and gets half a season of production from shaw. Year 1 - he lucks into a great first half from wright. Year 1 - he trades for zeigler after the smith debacle. Year 1 - he trades for Pomeranz, who is a tommy John victim in waiting and the consensus is he overpaid. Year 1 - he messes up swihart who eventually lands on the dl for the year. Year 1 - he lucks into benintendi's brilliance and reaps the benefit of a future stud, End of year 1 - we make the playoffs. The youngsters, not named benintendi, are tight at the plate and price gets lit up like a pinball machine. We are three and done. Year 2 - he trades for chris sale. Consensus is it is an all in situation and he might have overpaid a tad. Year 2 - he trades for thornburg. Another guy on the verge of being a tommy John victim. Concensus is another overpay, Year 2 - signs free agent Moreland. We all yawn! If we win it all in November 2017, it will all be worth it. Bottom line: dombrowski is what he is. A flawed GM. He is great at building pitching staffs and great at identifying bats that produce. But his old weaknesses are still there. He can not build a bullpen to save his life and right now our Achilles heel is our bullpen, just like what happened to him in Detroit. Experience and smarts can get you just so far. He is missing that X factor to get us over the top. And oh by the way, he ran off a ton of young über talented operations people who could have helped him get over his flaws and is now surrounded by yes men. And you thought the 86 year drought was painful? I look at your analysis in exactly opposite:
1-- In 2015 our starting staff was Miley, Porcello, ERod, Kelly, Clay and Owens. Even with Wright through August 3rd this staff was not a playoff caliber staff especially when you take into account we were in the best division in baseball. And Wright was gone after 8/3.
2-- The bullpen of last year - the top 3 were Koji, Taz and Ross. With the injury to Koji and Taz generally worn down, this bullpen left by Ben was awful.
3-- And ofc what Farrell said about it be refreshing that he could chose players based on performance rather than salary. But this was known the minute DD stepped in. These (guys like Panda and HanRam) weren't of his choosing. And it was obvious he made it clear play your best. That means "something" more than credit is generally given. But because it can't be measured, I wonder if it is thrown out with the bathwater.
So final analysis - if DD didn't step in and get the pitching and threaten/follow through with "performance over contracts" - it's questionable a guy like Hanley works as hard during the offseason but obviously Panda didn't. Ben would have rode guys like Panda and even Joe Kelly as a starter to a fault.
We weren't; going to the playoffs without DD's moves of getting Price, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, and Zeigler. They all had a positive effect until guys like Clay, ERod and Kelly "settled." DD made it obvious when he got Price and Kimbrel that he wanted the playoffs. IMO no way Ben manages with this type of urgency. Hell- leading into the last week or so of the season fangraphs had us a slight favorite to get into the world series. And maybe even a slight favorite to beat the cubs though I'm not sure about that (at some point very late in the season?)or if/when the odds changed. That would certainly not have happened with Ben as the GM. Not with the pitching staff he put together.
With DD we know what we're going to get. A GM that wants to win. Not a GM that is coentent wiht his last place finishes and $190m
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Post by soxjim on Dec 17, 2016 15:28:14 GMT -5
But I'm not sure anyone suggested that Moncada would be a bust. meadowparty.com/blog/2016/12/09/klawchat-12916/"Klaw: The Red Sox have a great young core and still have Devers and Groome, so Moncada and Kopech came from strength – and both guys they traded are still fairly high risk. I could see a 30% chance that Moncada busts because he never cuts the strikeout rate enough. There’s probably about that chance, maybe 40%, that Kopech’s a reliever, even though my gut says he’s a high-end starter. So, I get it, and if Sale doesn’t break down it’s going to work out fine, but I also fully understand why some Red Sox fans are flipping out over all the prospects DD has dealt." Okay but here is what ponch said:
Moncada becoming a bust, while not impossible, would be the exception to the rule.
That was the context of the point I replied to. The guy did say 30%. That means 70% he won't bust. So he wasn't saying "more than likely" he will bust.
He was suggesting it to be 30%. Maybe you're right though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 17, 2016 15:29:06 GMT -5
Getting back to dombrowski. He was hired to get us back in the playoffs and hopefully bring us a championship or two. Year 1 - he signs price. Fills a huge big league hole. . Great move. Year 1 - he trades for Kimbrell. Fills a huge big league hole. Consensus is he may have overpaid for a closer. Year 1 - he trades for smith, who people feared would be a tommy John victim sooner rather than later. And of course smith's ucl pops like an old violin string and he pitches no meaningful innings for us. Year 1 - he lucks into a break out year from porcello. Year 1 - he lucks into a bounce back year from Hanley. Year 1 - he lucks into panda going on the dl for the year and gets half a season of production from shaw. Year 1 - he lucks into a great first half from wright. Year 1 - he trades for zeigler after the smith debacle. Year 1 - he trades for Pomeranz, who is a tommy John victim in waiting and the consensus is he overpaid. Year 1 - he messes up swihart who eventually lands on the dl for the year. Year 1 - he lucks into benintendi's brilliance and reaps the benefit of a future stud, End of year 1 - we make the playoffs. The youngsters, not named benintendi, are tight at the plate and price gets lit up like a pinball machine. We are three and done. Year 2 - he trades for chris sale. Consensus is it is an all in situation and he might have overpaid a tad. Year 2 - he trades for thornburg. Another guy on the verge of being a tommy John victim. Concensus is another overpay, Year 2 - signs free agent Moreland. We all yawn! If we win it all in November 2017, it will all be worth it. Bottom line: dombrowski is what he is. A flawed GM. He is great at building pitching staffs and great at identifying bats that produce. But his old weaknesses are still there. He can not build a bullpen to save his life and right now our Achilles heel is our bullpen, just like what happened to him in Detroit. Experience and smarts can get you just so far. He is missing that X factor to get us over the top. And oh by the way, he ran off a ton of young über talented operations people who could have helped him get over his flaws and is now surrounded by yes men. And you thought the 86 year drought was painful? The Ziegler trade was actually a good deal and Carson Smith is hardly a debacle. They gave up Wade freakin' Miley for him, as mediocre a starter you can hope for. It was almost addition by subtraction. Smith is still under contract for the next few years so I wouldn't call it a debacle. Worse case is he amounts to nothing which is no worse than what they gave up. If he gives them a good year or two, then the Sox are way ahead of that deal. Otherwise I don't disagree with the rest of the assessments although I'm unwilling to say that they overpaid much for Thornburg. Maybe he gets hurt and you're right, but Dubon is a second division regular most likely, which Shaw is already, and Pennington at best turns into Thornburg. I don't think that's a trade that will really come back to haunt them. I also wouldn't say it was all luck. Hanley at 1b instead of LF was the right call and it, along with better healthy, probably reflected in his better hitting. He also held onto Benintendi and made him a rare keeper, so he does get credit for hanging onto him. He also held onto Wright when others were waiting for the Sox to DFA him. If Joe Kelly makes it as a reliever that's also a point in Dombrowski's favor as well. And if Dombrowski gets anything out of the Panda, then that's another point in his favor as he certainly wasn't motivated under Cherington - maybe Dombrowski was able to reach him in a positive way. FWIW I know that Ortiz thinks very highly of Dombrowski. I believe the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal will go down as the worst deal the Sox have made since Bagwell, and I have a bad feeling the Sale (as good a pitcher as he is) for Moncada/Kopech/Basabe/Diaz deal will bite the Red Sox real hard next decade as I do think Moncada will become an annual all-star in time and I think Kopech still has a decent chance of become a top notch starter, and if Basabe develops just around the time Bradley leaves as a free agent, ouch. Unless Sale helps lead the Sox to a World Championship or two, it could go down as a very costly deal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2016 15:34:20 GMT -5
First, I don't agree that the bullpen is an issue. It's a strength, IMO. Second, why are you always on top of acquiring every big name rumored to be available if you're just going to criticize it? forum.soxprospects.com/post/239279^ that was your post when the rumors were much worse than what we eventually gave up. Not sure I ever criticized the acquisition of sale. However my raw poll showed most people thought dombrowski overpaid for sale. Rather than dance about the bullpen's ability or lack thereof, I say we revisit after the 2017 season and hopefully you are 100% correct. You were leading the bandwagon to get Sale. You listed the players that you didn't want to trade and he didn't trade any of those guys. You said we needed a Sale to take the next step. You should be loving DD right now not calling him a flawed GM! You say he can't build a bullpen, but he built a good bullpen last year. Our top two bullpen arms in war were guys DD brought in. How can you complain about losing prospects after saying DD needed to get Sale like 20 times? You can't have it both ways . You can't get Sale and keep our top Prospects.
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on Dec 17, 2016 20:50:19 GMT -5
We weren't; going to the playoffs without DD's moves of getting Price, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, and Zeigler. They all had a positive effect until guys like Clay, ERod and Kelly "settled." DD made it obvious when he got Price and Kimbrel that he wanted the playoffs. IMO no way Ben manages with this type of urgency. Hell- leading into the last week or so of the season fangraphs had us a slight favorite to get into the world series. And maybe even a slight favorite to beat the cubs though I'm not sure about that (at some point very late in the season?)or if/when the odds changed. That would certainly not have happened with Ben as the GM. Not with the pitching staff he put together.
With DD we know what we're going to get. A GM that wants to win. Not a GM that is coentent wiht his last place finishes and $190m
I agree that DD looked at our roster before the start of last year and saw that it wasn't playoff caliber, which is why he had to add Price, Kimbrel and then Pom and Zeigler. I also think there's a pretty good chance that after the playoffs this year, DD looked at our roster and saw that it wasn't very likely that this group is going to win a WS the way it's constructed, given what CLE has, what the Cubs have put together, and what the SFG and LAD can put on the field. Bottom line - if the RS win a WS in the next three years, the trade is at least defensible. If they don't, then DD is probably going to be end up looking like an idiot. That's why he gets paid the big bucks. (As a side note, I will point out that it's a lot easier to sit back and not make deals like these because few people ever know what is being passed up. If DD really cared about criticism, then he would have just sat back and let the RS win 85-90 games for the next 6 years but never really contend for a WS - sort of like the 88-92 Red Sox. No one would have ever known that he turned down Sale and if the youngsters didn't become superstars, people would have just chalked it up to prospects not always panning out.) BTW, you know who is happiest with this trade? Mookie and XB and JBJ. I'm rooting like crazy that he's correct and we can watch another victory parade next year.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 18, 2016 12:09:31 GMT -5
We weren't; going to the playoffs without DD's moves of getting Price, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, and Zeigler. They all had a positive effect until guys like Clay, ERod and Kelly "settled." DD made it obvious when he got Price and Kimbrel that he wanted the playoffs. IMO no way Ben manages with this type of urgency. Hell- leading into the last week or so of the season fangraphs had us a slight favorite to get into the world series. And maybe even a slight favorite to beat the cubs though I'm not sure about that (at some point very late in the season?)or if/when the odds changed. That would certainly not have happened with Ben as the GM. Not with the pitching staff he put together.
With DD we know what we're going to get. A GM that wants to win. Not a GM that is coentent wiht his last place finishes and $190m
I agree that DD looked at our roster before the start of last year and saw that it wasn't playoff caliber, which is why he had to add Price, Kimbrel and then Pom and Zeigler. I also think there's a pretty good chance that after the playoffs this year, DD looked at our roster and saw that it wasn't very likely that this group is going to win a WS the way it's constructed, given what CLE has, what the Cubs have put together, and what the SFG and LAD can put on the field. Bottom line - if the RS win a WS in the next three years, the trade is at least defensible. If they don't, then DD is probably going to be end up looking like an idiot.That's why he gets paid the big bucks. (As a side note, I will point out that it's a lot easier to sit back and not make deals like these because few people ever know what is being passed up. If DD really cared about criticism, then he would have just sat back and let the RS win 85-90 games for the next 6 years but never really contend for a WS - sort of like the 88-92 Red Sox. No one would have ever known that he turned down Sale and if the youngsters didn't become superstars, people would have just chalked it up to prospects not always panning out.) BTW, you know who is happiest with this trade? Mookie and XB and JBJ. I'm rooting like crazy that he's correct and we can watch another victory parade next year.
Love your post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just curious on with something after year 3 before year 4 starts:
Would you still think of DD as idiot - here is an example: What if the Red Sox got to two W/s and lost in tight matchups? And whenever we lost in year 3 we were still really good? And then add to that after year 3; in year 4 he still has a team on paper as a world series contender in which it also looks like year 5 they would probably be a w/s contender. Would you still classify him as an idiot because he didn't win it all?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 19, 2016 15:12:51 GMT -5
The Sale trade is looking eerily similar to the Hanley/Beckett deal. I (among others) were pissing and moaning about giving up Hanley for a few years of one of the better pitchers in the league. It turned into a duckboat parade & it made the deal fine. THIS deal possibly gave Hanley AND Lester lite. I'm still ok with the deal as Moncada/Kopech haven't yet succeeded above High A/AA.
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Post by dnfl333 on Dec 20, 2016 19:54:45 GMT -5
A #%^&/# +......
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2016 23:57:34 GMT -5
The Sale trade is looking eerily similar to the Hanley/Beckett deal. I (among others) were pissing and moaning about giving up Hanley for a few years of one of the better pitchers in the league. It turned into a duckboat parade & it made the deal fine. THIS deal possibly gave Hanley AND Lester lite. I'm still ok with the deal as Moncada/Kopech haven't yet succeeded above High A/AA. Kopech is probably going to be ranked this winter similarly to how Lester was at his peak (BA low-20s).
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 21, 2016 14:16:38 GMT -5
Getting back to dombrowski. He was hired to get us back in the playoffs and hopefully bring us a championship or two. Year 1 - he signs price. Fills a huge big league hole. . Great move. Year 1 - he trades for Kimbrell. Fills a huge big league hole. Consensus is he may have overpaid for a closer. Year 1 - he trades for smith, who people feared would be a tommy John victim sooner rather than later. And of course smith's ucl pops like an old violin string and he pitches no meaningful innings for us. Still a good deal as losing 1 year from a pre-arbitration player with 5 years of control whose an ace set-up pitcher as a rookie is still WAY worth it.Year 1 - he lucks into a break out year from porcello. Wait, what? Ben extended him and it was his bad luck he pitched poorly for Ben, what could DD have done sold low (near nothing and ate half the contract?)Year 1 - he lucks into a bounce back year from Hanley. See above.Year 1 - he lucks into panda going on the dl for the year and gets half a season of production from shaw. I see the trend its luck when anything works in his favor, well the old saying is its better to be lucky than good as you never hear about the lucky loser.Year 1 - he lucks into a great first half from wright. See above. Maybe he was brilliant to not trade him.Year 1 - he trades for zeigler after the smith debacle. Debacle? good grief, see above.Year 1 - he trades for Pomeranz, who is a tommy John victim in waiting and the consensus is he overpaid. You are dead wrong, you must have your players criss crossed.Year 1 - he messes up swihart who eventually lands on the dl for the year. Can you elaborate on this, again this make no sense.Year 1 - he lucks into benintendi's brilliance and reaps the benefit of a future stud, What does this even mean, lucks into. Did he not aggressively promote the kid?End of year 1 - we make the playoffs. The youngsters, not named benintendi, are tight at the plate and price gets lit up like a pinball machine. We are three and done. Don't credit Cleveland. Year 2 - he trades for chris sale. Consensus is it is an all in situation and he might have overpaid a tad. Year 2 - he trades for thornburg. Another guy on the verge of being a tommy John victim. Concensus is another overpay, On the verge of TJ surgery? You mean because he was hurt 3 years ago and was on the best set up pitchers in the game last year?Year 2 - signs free agent Moreland. We all yawn! If we win it all in November 2017, it will all be worth it. Bottom line: dombrowski is what he is. A flawed GM. He is great at building pitching staffs and great at identifying bats that produce. But his old weaknesses are still there. He can not build a bullpen to save his life and right now our Achilles heel is our bullpen, just like what happened to him in Detroit. Experience and smarts can get you just so far. He is missing that X factor to get us over the top. And oh by the way, he ran off a ton of young über talented operations people who could have helped him get over his flaws and is now surrounded by yes men. And you thought the 86 year drought was painful? The Wambulance wants their vehicle back.
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on Dec 21, 2016 22:56:04 GMT -5
Love your post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just curious on with something after year 3 before year 4 starts:
Would you still think of DD as idiot - here is an example: What if the Red Sox got to two W/s and lost in tight matchups? And whenever we lost in year 3 we were still really good? And then add to that after year 3; in year 4 he still has a team on paper as a world series contender in which it also looks like year 5 they would probably be a w/s contender. Would you still classify him as an idiot because he didn't win it all?
I wouldn't but I'm sure there are people who think DD is an idiot even if the Red Sox win a WSin the next three years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2016 3:56:27 GMT -5
Love your post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just curious on with something after year 3 before year 4 starts:
Would you still think of DD as idiot - here is an example: What if the Red Sox got to two W/s and lost in tight matchups? And whenever we lost in year 3 we were still really good? And then add to that after year 3; in year 4 he still has a team on paper as a world series contender in which it also looks like year 5 they would probably be a w/s contender. Would you still classify him as an idiot because he didn't win it all?
I wouldn't but I'm sure there are people who think DD is an idiot even if the Red Sox win a WSin the next three years.
Paraphrasing George Carlin, think about a person with an average IQ then remember, half the people are even dumber.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2016 9:46:36 GMT -5
Id DD wins the WS this year people will definitely both say he's an idiot and point out how the majority of the roster weren't his direct acquisitions.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2016 11:36:29 GMT -5
Id DD wins the WS this year people will definitely both say he's an idiot and point out how the majority of the roster weren't his direct acquisitions. And there will be another group of people who declare he's a genius if they win the WS after he gives up all of the rest of the decent prospects for a minuscule upgrade who doesn't contribute in the postseason and they win the division by 15 games. I'm good at strawman hyperbole too.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2016 12:01:41 GMT -5
I was responding to another post.... and I didn't create a strawman but you're correct you did.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 22, 2016 14:18:14 GMT -5
Id DD wins the WS this year people will definitely both say he's an idiot and point out how the majority of the roster weren't his direct acquisitions. And there will be another group of people who declare he's a genius if they win the WS after he gives up all of the rest of the decent prospects for a minuscule upgrade who doesn't contribute in the postseason and they win the division by 15 games. I'm good at strawman hyperbole too. The only way I see DD getting a clean pass on this Sale deal is if the 2017 WS goes 7 games & Chris Sale wins games 1, 4, & 7.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2016 14:52:05 GMT -5
And there will be another group of people who declare he's a genius if they win the WS after he gives up all of the rest of the decent prospects for a minuscule upgrade who doesn't contribute in the postseason and they win the division by 15 games. I'm good at strawman hyperbole too. The only way I see DD getting a clean pass on this Sale deal is if the 2017 WS goes 7 games & Chris Sale wins games 1, 4, & 7. How in the world does that make sense? There are a bunch of different outcomes where DD comes away looking good in the Sale trade.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2016 15:02:11 GMT -5
Theo Epstein is not walking through that door. Maybe letting him go is the biggest error this franchise has made in their recent history or maybe it's not. We can argue why but there were plenty of questionable moves he made here towards the end. He built a great team in Chicago but had the perfect situation in which to do so. Let's watch how he does as these guys come off rookie deals and veterans age. Howard looks like a colossal mistake. They can afford it but it's one ok the books.
The same people crying for Cherrington were hating on him when he was last place 3 of 4 years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2016 15:37:03 GMT -5
Theo has been acting like DD when it comes to closers lately. He's traded a lot of prospects and Young players for 1 and 1/3 seasons of closers in the last 6 months.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 22, 2016 15:45:37 GMT -5
The only way I see DD getting a clean pass on this Sale deal is if the 2017 WS goes 7 games & Chris Sale wins games 1, 4, & 7. How in the world does that make sense? There are a bunch of different outcomes where DD comes away looking good in the Sale trade. Your right as there are multiple outcomes in the coming years that could go either way. I was stating the "overkill" scenario. Like shooting a squirrel with a .44 magnum. The consensus was we were favored to win the division. Now we're favored by 10 games or whatever. Even if we sweep the WS some people would say we could have done this w/o Sale & kept the kids. For the record, I'm on board with the Deal, whatever happens down the road.
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Post by ctfisher on Dec 22, 2016 16:36:01 GMT -5
I feel like it's worth pointing out that Dombrowski's first draft has been, based on the early returns (which obviously might mean nothing but it's all we have to go on) pretty successful. He's just as aggressive there as he is targeting big league needs. We don't know if cherington or another gm would've gone after groome at 12 considering that a lot of teams were spooked, and Dalbec appears to be rather better than people thought at least. He also hasn't had a chance to add international amateurs yet either.
He's always been very good in general at evaluating talent across pretty much all levels as far as I can tell- he built great teams through the draft and young acquisitions in Florida, and did an excellent job targeting his guys and holding on to the players that really panned out in Detroit as well. He has gutted the system to a point, but kept the players who combined high floors with high ceilings (benintendi and devers, among others). He also has essentially eliminated the need to make similar deals for th foreseeable future- the starting rotation is set for a couple years at least it would appear, we have a number of cost controlled bullpen arms, and the young position players are also under contract on team friendly terms for some time. Despairing over a potential 'lost dynasty' at this stage is kindof ridiculous. Trades, injuries, unexpected breakouts or huge regression will clarify the picture but for now, we have a team that should be one of the 2-3 best in baseball for the next 2-3 years, with a core of young players that should be able to form the backbone of a legit title contender for years after that.
I get the lost prospect angst, but it would be great if we could check some of the hyperbole at the door, and recognize that dombrowski has, perhaps with the exception of the pomeranz deal, paid what turned out to be below market prices for top end talent, which I'd have to say is commendable
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Post by ctfisher on Dec 22, 2016 16:59:04 GMT -5
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Post by soxjim on Dec 24, 2016 2:08:29 GMT -5
How in the world does that make sense? There are a bunch of different outcomes where DD comes away looking good in the Sale trade. Your right as there are multiple outcomes in the coming years that could go either way. I was stating the "overkill" scenario. Like shooting a squirrel with a .44 magnum. The consensus was we were favored to win the division. Now we're favored by 10 games or whatever. Even if we sweep the WS some people would say we could have done this w/o Sale & kept the kids. For the record, I'm on board with the Deal, whatever happens down the road. I've read this in some manner a lot and I don't agree with all the negativity of "winning by more" (wining the division by more is not a bad thing) and also the lack of acknowledgement that this move of getting Sale is a major attempt to improve in the post season. This move with has everything to do with trying to improve the Sox shot for championships. In order to improve the odds, 1st thing that helps is securing home field. We want home field advantage. So why is it so relevant to shed a negative light on how many games we're going to win the division by, rather than highlight that this move gives us a greater shot to play more games at Fenway? That would enhance the Red Sox chance for post season success, right?
Secondly, in terms of pitching, what has Price and Porcello shown us in the post season? And what about the other Red Sox starters? ERod and Pomeranz we know that it will extremely difficult for them to pitch a lot of innings during the reg season - thus there has to be concern of their "wear down" effect. So maybe "now that we're favored to win by 10 games" is huge because you can give more rest to the starters.
And we don't know what to expect from Wright especially when it comes to weather and playoff caliber baseball. SO the backend starters whom aren't accustomed to pitching a lot of innings, now get at least a bit more of a rest because of Sale which means they have a better chance of better prepared to perform well come post season because we project Sale to throw at at least 190 innings. The Big 3 now of Sale, Price and Porcello are going to give us at least 600 innings. How doesn't this help ERod, Pomeranz from wearing down? So why is it relevant to speak of that we were favored to win before and now we're favored by more - and that is similar to shooting a squirrel with a .44? The move getting Sale potentially saves innings from guys like ERod and Pomeranz which then can allow these guys a more prepared chance to perform better in the playoffs. .
And I've also read that Wright and Poemranz were all-stars - and - I'm with many that I think ERod can become real good. But why is it relevant that they were all-stars if they end up for example like Pomeranz - they wear down at season's end? Just as I indicate above, Sale's innings can decrease the amount of innings Pomeranz and Erod can pitch so they don't wear down. So again-- the statements made of "we were going to win the division anyways"-- that's not the point. With Sale, the Sox are potentially better positioned/prepared for the post season. That's the main point for Sale.
And regarding the bullpen, Kimbrel has been rated 16th and 30th the last two years according to fangraphs. He does wear down pretty quickly during an inning too. If he wears down easily during an inning, he can probably wear down a bit more than normal during the season too. Anyhow, Kelly and Barnes are highly questionable as is Ross. We don't know what Smith will be and are hopeful Thornburgh will be lockdown. But there are a lot of questions here. Another starter like Sale can give the bullpen much needed rest. With the rest, again they'd be much better prepared going into the post season.
Bottomline is - imo any highlight of "that the sox were going to win the division anyway" takes away from all the indirect improvements of this acquisition along with a much improved post season potential. This was a good move made by DD if one is to focus more on potential post season success. What would our chances have been if we remained the same vs Cleveland? Cleveland is getting Brantley back for a team that was 2nd in the AL in runs scored. Doesn't it scream "logic" that the Sox need something better than what they had last year in order to combat what Cleveland will bring? The thing is- one of their strengths is the bullpen - i.e. Miller. What a blunder Ben made not going hard after him instead of old man Koji.
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