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Who to extend and who not to extend in the future?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 9:34:58 GMT -5
For me, this might be a real interesting thread to see how people view things around here. I want to know who everyone wants to extend past this 3 year window to give the Sox a better chance to win past that timeframe. I'll give my opinions on each player and each extension candidate-
Mookie Betts- Probably easily the most obvious candidate to extend. He's the cornerstone and the new face of the franchise now that Ortiz is gone. Last year he was the second best player in baseball imo past Mike Trout. I don't care how much money in theory it takes to get it done, just make sure it gets done imo.
Jackie Bradley Jr.- Imo the most obvious player not to extend. Ride out his last 4 years of control and let Boras sell JBJ as the next Johnny Damon somewhere else after that. His defense will be sure to decline once he's in his 30's and his last year of his arbitration years is when he turns 30 or 31.
Chris Sale- Imo this is another guy the Sox need to extend, especially considering they emptied their best farm system players to trade for him. I offered a idea that past this year if the Sox wanted to extend him, that they could offer him a 6-7 year deal during his two option years and offer him more money during those two option years in order to get him at more years past that. His delivery will raise long-term questions but the guy has been really durable to this point in his career. Basically, I wouldn't let the fear of injuries deter me from wanting Sale long-term, I think he'll be effective and worth the contract past 31.
Craig Kimbrel- Probably the other obvious guy not to extend at this point. Ride out the next two years for better or worse and let him get paid top closer money somewhere else. I'd rather spend the money on a open market option like a Zach Britton at that time anyways (they're both free agents in that same off-season) if the Sox were to pay a closer (I hope they don't but if they do, please hope they prefer Zach Britton).
Robbie Ross Jr- I really like Robbie Ross and I think the Sox could get him at a nice price if they try to extend him a little earlier. He's a solid lefty option out of the bullpen and was really good at getting LHB out in particular last year.
Drew Pomeranz- No way in heck do I extend this guy past the two years they control him. He's soon to be 28 I believe and he's still on a innings limit really at this point in his career, which is kind of mind numbing to know that this guy still needs to build up his innings when he should already be way past this point in his career. That with the injury concerns is total red flag to not throw money at Pomeranz.
Rick Porcello- I'm not throwing money at Porcello. I can see his velocity rapidly declining in his 30's and he's already hittable with his strong velocity at this point in his career. He's a strong candidate to be a back end starter if not worse in his 30's and probably won't be worth the money past the next 3 years that the Sox control him. No way on extending Porcello, thanks for the team friendly deal to begin with though Rick.
Andrew Benintendi- Absolutely extend this kid and try to do it for cheaper while you can and try to get more years than his rookie contract years and arbitration years. This kid is a player and a future all-star imo.
Tyler Thornburg- Probably not a guy you want to extend seeing how he's already had Tommy John surgery and he's a high velocity guy that will probably flame out past the three years of control.
Xander Bogaerts- Saved the most controversial player for last. He's a great player most of the time but has his inconsistencies both at times defensively and offensively. He becomes a free agent I believe by age 27. It's probably going to take a 8 or 9 year deal to get a deal done. That would mean the Sox would have a short stop extended into his mid 30's. Sounds great in theory but Xander is already a below average fielding short stop and would probably need to move to LF or 3B by the end of his deal. Imo because of this one reason alone, I would not extend Xander. I just don't think he's worth it, even though I love the player right now. For me and my money, I'd rather pay Manny Machado even though it will be really tough with the Yankees and Dodgers being all over him in free agency. If they can't get Manny, then the Sox might have to find a placeholder short stop until Francisco Lindor hopefully becomes available 2 years later after Xander leaves. I think Lindor would be worth the money because I think he can stick long-term into his 30's at short stop.
Ohh and on a side note- David Price. If he opts out of his deal like expected, don't offer him any type of extension. He's not really a great fit in Boston to begin with it seems like and it would probably be best if both sides walk away in 2 years imo.
So the players I have extended past the next three years is-
Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, Robbie Ross Jr., and Andrew Benintendi.
The players I have leaving the next three years is-
Xander Bogaerts, JBJ, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Thornburg, Drew Pomeranz, Rick Porcello, and potentially David Price if he opts out.
I hope that Dombrowski can find suitable replacements for all these guys in three years, he's going to need to have a lot of work to do after the next three years. Thoughts?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 10:13:50 GMT -5
For the record-
I'm all for extending Xander right now on a ten year deal with a opt out in his deal with the hopes that he opts out by the 5th year of his deal but Boras won't probably play ball. Xander would have to want to stay here and go against Boras if that were to happen. This seems to happen from time to time (Jared Weaver, Jason Varitek) and Xander does like it in Boston, so there's at least a little bit of chance to do that imo. If he doesn't get extended now though, I'm all set. I don't want to get in a bidding war over Xander.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 11:34:53 GMT -5
Including this coming season they have Porcello for 4 years. He's not even in the discussion for an extension at this point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 11:36:44 GMT -5
Including this coming season they have Porcello for 4 years. He's not even in the discussion for an extension at this point. I thought Porcello only had 3 more years left? This is news to me if that's the case. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 11:37:14 GMT -5
Oh one caveat to this tread should be we all know any extension talk that says now means after the start of the year bc or luxury tax purposes
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 11:38:19 GMT -5
Including this coming season they have Porcello for 4 years. He's not even in the discussion for an extension at this point. I thought Porcello only had 3 more years left? This is news to me if that's the case. Sorry you are correct; I still don't think he's an extension candidate for another 2 years. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 11:39:31 GMT -5
Oh one caveat to this tread should be we all know any extension talk that says now means after the start of the year bc or luxury tax purposes Agreed. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 11:40:45 GMT -5
I thought Porcello only had 3 more years left? This is news to me if that's the case. Sorry you are correct; I still don't think he's an extension candidate for another 2 years. I don't think he's a extension candidate at all for the reasons I listed in my original post. I think it will turn out like the second Josh Beckett extension if the Sox extend him again. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 11:43:06 GMT -5
To me Betts is the only guy who is realistically an extension candidate. I worry about Betts and his smaller stature into his 30s; I think his best years will be in his 20s so if you can work something out to get him through those seasons then I'd be all about it.
Xander and Bradley have the Boras factor but more importantly they need to be more consistent.
Benintendi hasn't even played his rookie year. Extension talk is crazy talk.
Sale, we have for 3 years. Make him pitch a year first to make sure that recent concerns of declines aren't must more than a general variance in a career before you start handing out huge dollars and eliminating your advantage of his small
Salary.
You can't touch Price unless he opts out so there is no need to worry about that for a couple years.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 11:44:16 GMT -5
Sorry you are correct; I still don't think he's an extension candidate for another 2 years. I don't think he's a extension candidate at all for the reasons I listed in my original post. I think it will turn out like the second Josh Beckett extension if the Sox extend him again. Maybe but if he has 3 years like last year then you will feel different. He's not a guy who relies on power so he should theoretically age well. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 11:48:55 GMT -5
I don't think he's a extension candidate at all for the reasons I listed in my original post. I think it will turn out like the second Josh Beckett extension if the Sox extend him again. Maybe but if he has 3 years like last year then you will feel different. He's not a guy who relies on power so he should theoretically age well. No I will always go in thinking that last year was a peak year for Porcello. I think he won't age well because his "stuff" will deteriorate as he gets into his 30's. He has good stuff now and he is a master at mixing and changing speeds and eye levels but when the stuff leaves, his prime might leave too and he'll just be another overpaid veteran out there. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 11:53:34 GMT -5
To me Betts is the only guy who is realistically an extension candidate. I worry about Betts and his smaller stature into his 30s; I think his best years will be in his 20s so if you can work something out to get him through those seasons then I'd be all about it. Xander and Bradley have the Boras factor but more importantly they need to be more consistent. Benintendi hasn't even played his rookie year. Extension talk is crazy talk. Sale, we have for 3 years. Make him pitch a year first to make sure that recent concerns of declines aren't must more than a general variance in a career before you start handing out huge dollars and eliminating your advantage of his small Salary. You can't touch Price unless he opts out so there is no need to worry about that for a couple years. Just a few points- -I think Betts will hit good enough to be solid in his 30's, especially at Fenway. -Getting Benintendi signed and extended for cheaper now will make you look really smart later, this kid is a player. -You say taking advantage of a cheap Sale deal, I say leverage in order to getting a new extension with Sale done. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 11:55:08 GMT -5
My point was if you have a 4 year track record of the same success or close to it your opinion may change. I don't know what the next 3 years will bring, you may be correct but time will tell. You just can't make a definitive prediction about a guy 3 years out.
"Stuff" may diminish with age but it's usually the power guy's losing power who suffer the most. They need to learn how to pitch like Porcello currently does to stay effective. Porcello's advantage would be that he already has great command and control and knows how to change arm angles.
Again this isn't a bet on him doing these things and being a top of the rotation guy now and into his mid 30s but it's certainly not something that's impossible to imagine.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2016 12:05:04 GMT -5
[quote author=" pedrofanforever45" source="/post/242022/thread" timestamp="[/quote]Just a few points- -I think Betts will hit good enough to be solid in his 30's, especially at Fenway. -Getting Benintendi signed and extended for cheaper now will make you look really smart later, this kid is a player. -You say taking advantage of a cheap Sale deal, I say leverage in order to getting a new extension with Sale done.[/quote] If you take away Mookie's power and some of his speed, then what do you have? There aren't a lot of guys built like him in general so it's a tough comp but I do worry Long term about what happens if he gets a wrist injury or that hand eye slows a little but that only motivates me to extend him now not let him walk. I hear ya on Beni, but he hasn't even played one season yet and he already had a knee injury. It was minor but you have 6 years of control on him and 3 of those are at dirt cheap. Injury risk is real, let's let him play at least a season probably 2 years first. I agree on leveraging Sales player options but not until you get a great year from him in Boston that proves he can pitch here and in the playoffs (not that I have much doubt) but more so proves that some of the trends from the last 3 years, especially his 2016 last 4 months aren't the trend. If all goes well he should love Boston vs the White Sox and I'd jump on trying to extend him. |
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 19, 2016 14:15:54 GMT -5
General posting tip: You don't need to include "IMO" under the description of each player you're discussing. Unless you're discussing actual verifiable facts, the implication is already there that it's your opinion. Not trying to be catty here, just sort of a PSA.
Anyway, I'm sort of interested in it from the other angle. For which players would it make sense to work out an extension? Betts is on his way to becoming a $300 million player. If he wants to play in Boston his whole life I obviously wouldn't begrudge him that, but I'd certainly understand if he wants to make as much as possible.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2016 16:44:56 GMT -5
If you take away Mookie's power and some of his speed, then what do you have? There aren't a lot of guys built like him in general so it's a tough comp but I do worry Long term about what happens if he gets a wrist injury or that hand eye slows a little but that only motivates me to extend him now not let him walk. I hear ya on Beni, but he hasn't even played one season yet and he already had a knee injury. It was minor but you have 6 years of control on him and 3 of those are at dirt cheap. Injury risk is real, let's let him play at least a season probably 2 years first. I agree on leveraging Sales player options but not until you get a great year from him in Boston that proves he can pitch here and in the playoffs (not that I have much doubt) but more so proves that some of the trends from the last 3 years, especially his 2016 last 4 months aren't the trend. If all goes well he should love Boston vs the White Sox and I'd jump on trying to extend him. Probably a better version of Pedroia? |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 17:21:24 GMT -5
General posting tip: You don't need to include "IMO" under the description of each player you're discussing. Unless you're discussing actual verifiable facts, the implication is already there that it's your opinion. Not trying to be catty here, just sort of a PSA. Anyway, I'm sort of interested in it from the other angle. For which players would it make sense to work out an extension? Betts is on his way to becoming a $300 million player. If he wants to play in Boston his whole life I obviously wouldn't begrudge him that, but I'd certainly understand if he wants to make as much as possible. I'll note what you said the imo and I'll try to avoid it as much as possible. As far as Mookie goes, I think he would take less to stay in Boston. I don't know why I get this feeling, maybe it's the fact that his agent isn't named Boras and the fact that the Sox took a chance on him in the fifth round 5 years ago. In a sense, I think the he might feel the same way Pedrioa might have when the Sox took him in the second round all way back when. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 19, 2016 18:00:51 GMT -5
Just a few points- -I think Betts will hit good enough to be solid in his 30's, especially at Fenway. -Getting Benintendi signed and extended for cheaper now will make you look really smart later, this kid is a player. -You say taking advantage of a cheap Sale deal, I say leverage in order to getting a new extension with Sale done.[/quote] If you take away Mookie's power and some of his speed, then what do you have? There aren't a lot of guys built like him in general so it's a tough comp but I do worry Long term about what happens if he gets a wrist injury or that hand eye slows a little but that only motivates me to extend him now not let him walk. I hear ya on Beni, but he hasn't even played one season yet and he already had a knee injury. It was minor but you have 6 years of control on him and 3 of those are at dirt cheap. Injury risk is real, let's let him play at least a season probably 2 years first. I agree on leveraging Sales player options but not until you get a great year from him in Boston that proves he can pitch here and in the playoffs (not that I have much doubt) but more so proves that some of the trends from the last 3 years, especially his 2016 last 4 months aren't the trend. If all goes well he should love Boston vs the White Sox and I'd jump on trying to extend him.[/quote] I am not advocating to sign Benni to an extension right now but I have to disagree that the knee injury he sustained this year is a reason not to sign him to an extension if it makes sense. Watching that knee injury in full time looked like he tore everything in his knee, in my mind the fact that he did not might point towards him being able to avoid injuries that may keep the regular person out a long period of time. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2016 22:56:35 GMT -5
Mookie has been asked about extensions mentioned in articles before and he has always said he doesn't worry about that stuff and doesn't talk to his agent about it. He sounds like he's not worried or concerned about money at all. I doubt he signs a Pedroia-like under market contract, but wouldn't be shocked.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2016 0:54:11 GMT -5
Mookie is the only one I'd want to extend. His hit tool is amazing. It's all about health for him and the luxury of playing RF instead of CF should help him stay healthier (you'd think) as it would be less wear and tear.
If Benintendi is the player we anticipate him to be, he'd be the other one I'd want locked up long-term. Again, another off the charts hit tool, and if he can avoid playing CF, his wear and tear would be lessened as well.
Xander Bogaerts is a so-so SS in 2016. By 2019 I'd be a bit surprised if he were still adequate. Unless he gets moved to an OF corner it's hard to see what the Sox can do with him. Perhaps Pedroia's career is coming toward an end by then and Bogaerts can move to 2b?
Otherwise it makes no sense to tie him up long-time. 3b is the most natural position for him to move to, but the Sox have Devers and even Dalbec who are younger and cheaper and don't become free agents for a long time.
JBJ is not a guy I'd want to tie up long-term either. While is offense is streaky, but good, it's hard to want to commit to his offense long-term as he hits his 30s and his ability to play CF should lessen and he enters his 30s. Investing in a guy to play CF long-term when it's questionable that his bat will play in the corners for huge bucks makes little sense.
I would expect Porcello to regress although I still have that "Wainrightization" article in my head where Porcello was compared to Adam Wainright - and this was before he broke out this season.
And there's Sale. As both Porcello and Sale are free agents at the end of 2019. Perhaps if Sale shows little signs of injuries and maintains his effectiveness, I'd guess Sale is the guy you try to commit long-term to. Porcello is more of a contact guy, so I don't know if he'd be as good an investment. I'd think he'd be cheaper though and I think he has more roots in New England so maybe he'd be more open to an extension?
Really the only definite is Mookie and the most likely after him is Benintendi. Maybe Sale or Porcello depending on what's left in the budget and where they're at and what the teams' needs are.
I think the Red Sox will definitely need a CF by the end of 2020. I always figured Moncada might wind up there or perhaps Basabe might be ready by then. Now I guess Lorenzo Cedrola might be their best hope and he's a long way away, perhaps never gets there, and if he did, he still might not be ready by then? If I'm talking Cedrola then it's not real apparent where the next CF in the organization is on the horizon. Likewise I don't see where the next 2b to succeed Pedroia comes from. I don't think they'd want to move Mookie to either position.
There is still time to draft a potential 2b and/or CF that could be ready when they're needed. If not the Sox would obviously have to go outside the organization, which could get costly.
And of course they'll need to develop some more starting pitching beyond Groome and Raudes (as a back end starter) if/when Sale and/or Porcello depart (I assume Price stays?)
The good news is the Sox still have time to replenish the system, although they'll need to get on it immediately. Taking advantage of the international talent and hopefully parlaying Buchholz and/or Pomeranz into something useful would help.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 20, 2016 1:40:02 GMT -5
If Bradley maintains his current level of hitting, with his D, you want to keep him long term. Complete players are hard to come by. I also don't think we've seen his best yet. You give him another year though before you would even want to start extension talk.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2016 2:12:20 GMT -5
Extend Mookie ASAP. I've said it before, but I love hit tool guys, because they're going to retain value over time. He'll eventually lose speed, he'll probably lose some power for a little while (the league is going to adjust their approach), and peak mid-20s, but he's a very good bet to increase his walk rate. I think he's a outstanding bet to maintain his OPS, even if the components change. He's also going to remain valuable defensively, and he has tremendous versatility.
I think Benintendi is an extension candidate next winter. See what he does, but I think it'll be good. Again, with a calling-card hit tool, he's probably going to retain value for a long time.
Lots of people think Porcello's going to "lose his stuff," but he's not a velo guy to begin with. A slow velocity decline is going to affect him less than it would a fireballer. I think he's worth extending depending on the deal. If they did it now for 3 more years at $22-24, that's a good deal. He's due for FA at 30, still in his historical prime. Look at Lester: similar FB velo (actually slightly better, particularly given handedness), but he's maintained it and improved as a *pitcher*. Porcello works on movement and spin. He's a better bet to retain his skills than most think.
Sale? Eh, I'm not sure. He's going to want a long deal, 6-8/$30+ AAV. I just don't know how it would work. If he'd tack on 3-4 years at below-market, maybe. But that's just a lot of money, especially with Price. And no impending MiL help. I'd be inclined to trade him preseason in 2019. Adding a couple of market-value years wouldn't be prohibitive for a trade, either, provided he's still a true 1/1a, or even a 2 (given that it's only 2 years).
Extend ERod now. They can get 2-3 additional years at a low rate, which boosts his vale tremendously either for the Sox or in trade. Think Quintana. Again, even as a 3 (what he's been), it's still a bargain.
Wright, maybe next winter. See ERod. MLB-average or better performance and lots of innings. That's $15M for 5 years in FA.
Pomeranz, extend him now. It boosts his trade value. He's got a short track record of success, meaning he's more likely to take a team-friendlier deal. If he really is the pre-TOR guy DD thinks, then he's a giant Sale/Price insurance policy. If he's just a 3/4, 3 extra years at 12-15 per means he's still a bargain for any team acquiring him.
JBJ? It would depend on the deal. He could always slide to RF as his range declines. I also think he'll develop his approach a bit more.
Bogaerts probably doesn't stay at SS after 27-28, but you never know. I think that, other than Benintendi (versus last year), he's gọt the most room for offensive growth. I still think he's more pre-ASB than post-. Again, depends on the deal. Tacking on 3 more years at reasonable cost wouldn't kill his trade value and might allow them to keep most of the core once Hanley and Panda are off the books.
I wouldn't extend any of the relievers, unless Kelly has an outstanding year. In that case, I'd try him/Thornburg in the occasional closing spots, try to get a couple more years out of Kelly at less than $10M per, and trade Kimbrel. Kimbrel, particularly if he's back to near-ATL form, could fetch a stupid return in trade. Developing relievers/converting starters, and trading "proven" vets is the new exploitable market inefficiency. In fact, I think the team needs to focus on hoarding big relief arms/failed starters and try to maximize calculated veteran trades (like Kimbrel) while creating their own high-leverage relievers. That's one reason I like the Kelly-to-the-'pen move, having Barnes, and the Thornburg acquisition. With Ysla, Martin, Cosart, and Shepard, they should have some internal options. I think (fingers crossed, Smith comes back without missing a beat) this is the best way to quickly re-stock.
For a lot of these guys, if the Sox sign them to relatively cheap/short extensions, they can always be traded later. In fact, some will have to be. If they can maintain a cheap bullpen, get some roughly-average production from Travis, work in Groome as a 4 or better, and Devers is really a middle-order bat, they can keep at least two of Sale-Price-Porcello, provided ERod and Wright are locked up. And, at the same time, keep Mookie, Benintendi, and Bogaerts, with an outside shot of JBJ (and if not, get something back for him). The real trick is going to be re-stocking fast enough to *let* guys leave as FAs or use them as trade chips. A lot will depend on the wave of Groome-Dalbec-Chatham-Shawaryn-Raudes-Cosart-etc. There's going to be a 2-3 year period starting in 2020 when they're losing key players, via FA or trade. Comp picks and minor leaguers coming back are going to need some development time.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2016 9:21:59 GMT -5
Sometimes a guy's value is the fact that his deal isn't another 5 years. Extending a guy like Pomeranz wouldn't enhance his value unless you can get him to sign some crazy below market deal. In which case, you'd probably want to keep him since team friendly contracts that out weigh production are kind of the thing teams seek out.
No reason to extend Wright. He's already "older" and you have him u set control for a long time. He's not a guy you want to buy out free agent years. He's a guy you want to let get to free agency or close to it in his mid 30s
Edit: they have Wright for 4 more years and he's about to play his age 32 season. So he will be a free agent for the first time at age 36.... why are we extending a guy like that who's technically relatively unproven. If he's anything close to what he was before the injury last year just take the 4 years of below market production and evaluate when he's 36.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 20, 2016 12:57:50 GMT -5
Don't extend any of them. Ride this 3 year crest out for hopefully a championship or two, then trade everyone for as many good prospects as you can get. Have 2 or 3 bad seasons where you get top draft pics and IFA money to augment your trade-acquired talent then sign appropriate free agents to augment your cheaply made base of talent. This gets you a cycle of 3-5 years of a highly competitive team sandwiched with 3-5 years of a bad team.
It's not fun, but it's probably the easiest way to build a winning team, given the restrictive nature of acquiring amateur talent.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2016 15:48:24 GMT -5
Mookie and Benintendi for sure. I think at this point Xander is going to market with Scott Boras and there is nothing the Sox can do about it other than pay top dollar. I actually would try to pursue Machado in free agency and put him back at SS and, if that happens, trade one year of Xander for star prospect or two in positions of need.
I would wait til a year out to evaluate Sale and Porcello. Always a risk with pitching, but that may be the place you have to take the risk with dollars given the farm still has very little in the pipeline. If the medicals and performances are sound you try for a market deal extension with an opt-out at 3 years - like Price's - and hope the pitcher is good enough to exercise that clause and takes his mid- to late-30s to some other team that's foolish enough to pay for them. That or you give up a ton in a trade for a talent like the Sox just did with Sale.
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