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Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz to Phillies for 2B Josh Tobias
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 20, 2016 16:17:07 GMT -5
The Sale trade in isolation seemed entirely too fair to be a Dombrowski move; of course it forces this followup move to turn the whole thing into a secret overpay.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2016 16:17:55 GMT -5
I do hope Clay has a few more good years. Unfortunately I see a lot of Tim Lincecum in him. Tim is 32 and is out of baseball. Similar body frame/stuff/upside. Timmy had a huge 3 or 4 year peak & then fell off a cliff. Lincecum had a huge velocity drop which was impossible to recover from. Buchholz hasn't had that yet.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2016 16:29:04 GMT -5
If this was Clay's trade value, I totally don't get why we bothered to pick up his option. They may have expected the luxury tax threshold to go higher than it did and then they could have kept him or paid a bunch of his salary to get better prospects. I would've done the latter and then take the savings after this year. When it comes to the pitching staff, the three-year window is no joke. After 2018 you lose Pomeranz and likely Price who will opt out if he is successful and still healthy; after 2019 you lose Sale and Porcello, barring extensions. The only prospect currently in the system who projects to be a #2 or better is Groome, and he's 18. That's an awful lot of eggs in one basket. Even with an extension of Sale and/or Porcello, both of which, if healthy and successful (the only reason you'd extend either or both), will require market-value deals, you'll probably still need one starter after 2018 (assuming Rodriguez and Wright still functional) and one or two more after 2019. You've either got to buy these guys or trade for them - and you'll need prospect wealth to do the latter. Which is why I would've eaten the cash to get much better prospect back or traded Pomeranz in hopes of getting at least one top 20 prospect in a position of need and maybe a lottery ticket A-ball player with a high ceiling. Lots of moving parts to say the least, and it will be fascinating to watch how the front office handles the next 18-24 months.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2016 16:34:08 GMT -5
They may have expected the luxury tax threshold to go higher than it did and then they could have kept him or paid a bunch of his salary to get better prospects. I would've done the latter and then take the savings after this year. When it comes to the pitching staff, the three-year window is no joke. After 2018 you lose Pomeranz and likely Price who will opt out if he is successful and still healthy; after 2019 you lose Sale and Porcello, barring extensions. The only prospect currently in the system who projects to be a #2 or better is Groome, and he's 18. That's an awful lot of eggs in one basket. Even with an extension of Sale and/or Porcello, both of which, if healthy and successful (the only reason you'd extend either or both), will require market-value deals, you'll probably still need one starter after 2018 (assuming Rodriguez and Wright still functional) and one or two more after 2019. You've either got to buy these guys or trade for them - and you'll need prospect wealth to do the latter. Which is why I would've eaten the cash to get much better prospect back or traded Pomeranz in hopes of getting at least one top 20 prospect in a position of need and maybe a lottery ticket A-ball player with a high ceiling. Lots of moving parts to say the least, and it will be fascinating to watch how the front office handles the next 18-24 months. They may have wanted to reset the LT penalty for 2018.
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brisox
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Post by brisox on Dec 20, 2016 16:36:53 GMT -5
Maybe Dombrowski thinks that the Red Sox have to pay a "cooties tax" of a low 20's prospect whenever they make a trade. Or, while it is good that he does not succumb to the sunk-cost fallacy, he seems to think that future cost is a fallacy too. After 04, and certainly after 07, what I wanted was a dynasty. After 88, 90, and 16 I place little value on making it to the playoffs with realistic hopes of winning a game or two; though I realize I am in a very small minority on this. The prospect of a dynasty seemed reachable for a couple years, at least until it became clear that Pawtucket was a place pitching prospects went to find their floors. Certainly that gonfalons bubble is long gone now. Winning is nice, certainly, but the team is so corporate, so vanilla, now that I have little enthusiasm for next year. I do not understand this evaluation. 1) We have the most exciting OF I can remember that isn't Dewey, Rice, Lynn and they are all under 25 . GG in RF, GGin CF (if Keirmeir and Pillar get hit by buses) and likely GG in LF 2) We have 3 legit Aces in our rotation 3 of the top 5 innings eaters in all of baseball 3) the best Offensive Middle infield in the game and a perennial GG at second 4) One of the top closers in the game 5) former all stars at the corner IF spots 6) two young cost controlled catchers who are stellar defensive players. We have this team which won the AL East last year under control until 2020 and we will likely extend guys between now and then. if this is Vanilla then it is handmade French Vanilla from a place where you can see the cows.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2016 16:49:35 GMT -5
I do hope Clay has a few more good years. Unfortunately I see a lot of Tim Lincecum in him. Tim is 32 and is out of baseball. Similar body frame/stuff/upside. Timmy had a huge 3 or 4 year peak & then fell off a cliff. Lincecum had a huge velocity drop which was impossible to recover from. Buchholz hasn't had that yet. Agree. And at this point, if Buchholz can't start in the near future he looks to be able to extend his career as a very capable reliever.
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Post by soxfanatic64 on Dec 20, 2016 17:14:50 GMT -5
This is straight up a salary dump of 13.5 million. Josh Tobias was not in Philly's top 30 prospects. He will be 24 and in Salem ( High A ) next season. Play's mostly 2B and some OF. Ceiling is a utility player at best and that is a LONG SHOT.
DD still needs to pick up 2 more starters for Pawtucket to go with Owens, Johnson, and Elias. There are lots of starting pitchers on the free agent market.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 20, 2016 17:37:41 GMT -5
This is straight up a salary dump of 13.5 million. Josh Tobias was not in Philly's top 30 prospects. He will be 24 and in Salem ( High A ) next season. Play's mostly 2B and some OF. Ceiling is a utility player at best and that is a LONG SHOT. DD still needs to pick up 2 more starters for Pawtucket to go with Owens, Johnson, and Elias. There are lots of starting pitchers on the free agent market. Elias is out of options.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 20, 2016 17:40:01 GMT -5
This is straight up a salary dump of 13.5 million. Josh Tobias was not in Philly's top 30 prospects. He will be 24 and in Salem ( High A ) next season. Play's mostly 2B and some OF. Ceiling is a utility player at best and that is a LONG SHOT. DD still needs to pick up 2 more starters for Pawtucket to go with Owens, Johnson, and Elias. There are lots of starting pitchers on the free agent market. It seems like there a good of quality Triple-A starters every year that matriculate around the League. This is, of course if you're just looking for depth and implying that BJ, Owens, or Elias would be necessary for Major League death God forbid anything happens We have starters in the farm, some just haven't been given the chance upwards yet My Hope Is that Josh Tobias becomes a triple A team player who does good things and provides a good presence. All in all good job DD, gives clay a chance to start full time and possibly be Premier starter once again, and frees up 14 million dollars. Were any of us expecting major league Talent coming back for a deal for Buchholz? I don't see how anyone can be down on this deal, considering the last 10 starts clay had may have been his last 10 good ones. I don't wish that but you never know. Edit: I was going to respond to your comment, but either forgot about some brilliant point I was trying to make or just should have posted instead of quoting
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Post by okin15 on Dec 20, 2016 17:43:55 GMT -5
Couldn't we have included Buchholz in the Sale trade?
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Post by p23w on Dec 20, 2016 17:44:35 GMT -5
Dumb, Dumber and Dombrowski.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 20, 2016 17:45:04 GMT -5
Maybe Dombrowski thinks that the Red Sox have to pay a "cooties tax" of a low 20's prospect whenever they make a trade. Or, while it is good that he does not succumb to the sunk-cost fallacy, he seems to think that future cost is a fallacy too. After 04, and certainly after 07, what I wanted was a dynasty. After 88, 90, and 16 I place little value on making it to the playoffs with realistic hopes of winning a game or two; though I realize I am in a very small minority on this. The prospect of a dynasty seemed reachable for a couple years, at least until it became clear that Pawtucket was a place pitching prospects went to find their floors. Certainly that gonfalons bubble is long gone now. Winning is nice, certainly, but the team is so corporate, so vanilla, now that I have little enthusiasm for next year. I do not understand this evaluation. 1) We have the most exciting OF I can remember that isn't Dewey, Rice, Lynn and they are all under 25 . GG in RF, GGin CF (if Keirmeir and Pillar get hit by buses) and likely GG in LF 2) We have 3 legit Aces in our rotation 3 of the top 5 innings eaters in all of baseball 3) the best Offensive Middle infield in the game and a perennial GG at second 4) One of the top closers in the game 5) former all stars at the corner IF spots 6) two young cost controlled catchers who are stellar defensive players. We have this team which won the AL East last year under control until 2020 and we will likely extend guys between now and then. if this is Vanilla then it is handmade French Vanilla from a place where you can see the cows. I wish we still had the uniqueness of Koji and/or Ziegler, but you forgot to mention the rare knuckleballer Stephen Wright, the joy of watching the equally interesting Hanley at DH, and the joyful suspense of anticipating the contributions of Barnes, Beni, Betts, XB, JBJ, Devers, Elias, Hernandez, Hembree, Johnson, Kelly, Kimbrel, Leon, Martin, Moreland, Owens, Panda, Pedey, Pom, Porcello, Price, ERod, Ross, Rutledge, Sale, Scott, Smith, Thornburg, Vasquez, Workman, Young, Ysla and many others, including our new bench coach Gary D. Will these guys win CY, MVP, GG, SS, Championships? Will they continue to mash? push the baserunning envelope? Again rank as a top defense? Will SP and RP be as good as they project? This is only vanilla if vanilla is your favorite ice cream.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 20, 2016 18:20:31 GMT -5
A bird in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush....said noone in Sox Prospects.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2016 18:22:28 GMT -5
Couldn't we have included Buchholz in the Sale trade? And maybe Craig and Castillo also? The White Sox have no use for Buchholz. They're rebuilding.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2016 19:08:31 GMT -5
I'm actually surprised that the Sox got absolutely nothing back for Buchholz. I thought they'd at least get a low-level lottery ticket. Tobias might be a good guy, but he's not remotely useful to the team. Definitely a straight salary dump. I guess picking up his option made some sense from a depth standpoint, but why'd they even bother?
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2016 19:18:43 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 20, 2016 19:20:27 GMT -5
How do you know what is available? Do you think you know the market better than the GM does? We can evaluate what we think the market should be based on historical comparable transactions, analyzing other team's rosters and needs, applying basic economic theory, etc. The alternative is, what, assuming your GM is omnipotent and only makes the best possible deals? This is a discussion forum; therefore, we discuss transactions. I'm not saying that he could have gotten more for Buchholz now. I'm saying that I would have waited to see if I could have gotten more for him later, even if that comes at the risk of not being able to completely unload his salary later on. In a market in which Edinson Volquez gets 2/$22M, Andrew Cashner gets 1/$10M and Jeremy Hellickson is offered a $17.2M qualifying offer, Clay Buchholz at $13.5M should have some positive value. If no one is offering positive value for him now, I think the right move is to wait and see if that changes. This is a move you make in February, not one you make in December. By the way, the trend we see in a lot of Dombrowski transactions is a lack of desire to maximize return and instead an emphasis on certainty. As soon as negotiations reach the point where he thinks they're better off moving forward, he pulls the trigger instead of seeing if he can squeeze a little more value from the deal. That's both good (you don't risk losing the deal over haggling over the third piece) and bad (third pieces sometimes turn out to be quite important). I think your above comparisons are fair but concluding that Buchholz has more value than those players doesn't seem accurate (I assume this is what you mean by him having positive value - as we can assume those players received market value already). Over the past 3 years Buch has been worth 5.3 fWAR / 1.3 bWAR while those other 3 pitchers have been worth 5,5,4.4 fWAR / 4.2,3.1,-1.6 bWAR. If you look at just this past year Buch was worth 0.5 fWAR / 0.2 bWAR while those other 3 pitchers were worth 3.2,1.5,0.4 fWAR / 3,-0.6,-0.8 bWAR respectively. Volquez got 2 years at lower AAV (let's call this even with Buch's contract) while Cashner got less money and Hellickson got more, but I think you would agree he would have received a lower AAV on the open market. Overall these guys seem to have even value with Buch while having fairly even contracts as well - therefore Buch has near-zero market value if we use them as comps. If you trade something with near-zero value you should expect to get near-zero value back, and that's what happened. It's extremely rare (not sure if it has ever happened) for a pitcher to sign for $10mil+ in February as teams have already committed their payrolls at that point. So keeping Buch would likely have meant selling him off at the trade deadline, which likely would have provided more in prospect value - but would have required the Red Sox to eat ~7.5mil in salary and may not have gotten a prospect back worth more than that while restricting other moves the Red Sox can now make. I've been a proponent of Buch for quite some time even when many counted him out and didn't think they should pickup his option(s), but I'm content with this deal. Most good deals don't have a clear 'winner'.
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Post by dnfl333 on Dec 20, 2016 19:42:00 GMT -5
If this was Clay's trade value, I totally don't get why we bothered to pick up his option. Tobias is not much, but he's something, and they clearly thought (and probably rightfully so) that they might be able to pry a better prospect for Buchholz. That said, if this was the best they could get for him at this point in time, I'd have waited a little longer and seen if a contender got a little more desperate. This return is not much more than a pure salary dump, and even if that's the market for Buchholz, I think they could have waited until closer to Spring Training to give up on their hopes of getting anything of value back for him. What value? The player is done and has been done for some time.. The better ? Is, why the option was picked up in the first place.. Trim another 12 to 14 million and call EE's agent..
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 20, 2016 19:48:07 GMT -5
The trade off for DD was either certainty that you could get the whole $13.5 paid off now and get a lesser/no prospect, or wait until ST when you might be able to get a better prospect, but also might not be able to get the whole contract paid off.
It seems evident they valued getting the full deal off the books now. Whether that's because they have another deal potentially in place, an extension lined up, or just wanted to guarantee they had the space available for an in-season acquisition/stay under $195 by the end of the season
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Post by dnfl333 on Dec 20, 2016 19:51:00 GMT -5
Dave Dombrowski is bad at his job. He buys high and sells low, he has no patience, he is beginning to resemble Rick Pitino as a GM that way. I will continue to posit the theory that Dave Dombrowski is the worst signing the Red Sox have ever made. All that said, F Buchholz! If he pitched like the #2/3 he was supposed to be, then Dombrowski doesn't give away Espinoza for a Pomeranz, who is destined to be our future left handed setup man. This feels like an F-you to Buchholz by picking up his option, chances are he could have gotten a 3-4 year deal at roughly the same AAS, chosen where to pitch and something tells me Philly wouldn't have been high on his wish list. Now the talking heads on the radio will need a new whipping boy The Team as constructed is the odds on favorite to win the AL pennant and a legit World Series contender. Now go back to your room and wait for Ainge to do the same..
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 20, 2016 20:14:57 GMT -5
I don't mind this trade. The point was to get comfortably under the LT, and now the Red Sox are at that point. While the return obviously isn't anything to brag about, at least the Sox have another 13.5M of leeway, which will also help them next year since their LT penalties will be reset.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 20, 2016 20:27:45 GMT -5
I know the Marlin rumors made us hope we could get something good for Buchholz, but I think we all knew unless we paid a ton of salary we weren't getting much. DD made it clear the 13.5 million in salary space was more important than a slightly better prospect.
For everyone thinking we should have waited. Awsner me this, how many teams can afford 13.5 million right before or during spring training? You know it's only a few and they might not need a starter. You think we should have paid some salary and got back a better prospect, but DD wanted to clear the salary. Let's see what he does with it.
I also like Tobias, he has a good bat. I can see him having a huge year with his bat and DD flipping him for a player we need down the road. We could flip him for another Ziegler if we have a need down the road.
The market was set with the Garcia trade earlier this year, so I'm just surprised by the uproar over this trade.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 20, 2016 20:31:21 GMT -5
Couldn't we have included Buchholz in the Sale trade? And maybe Craig and Castillo also? The White Sox have no use for Buchholz. They're rebuilding. Did you forget that the rebuilding Phillies just traded for him? It's all about hoping he pitches well and they can flip him for prospects at deadline.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 20, 2016 20:45:57 GMT -5
I know the Marlin rumors made us hope we could get something good for Buchholz, but I think we all knew unless we paid a ton of salary we weren't getting much. DD made it clear the 13.5 million in salary space was more important than a slightly better prospect. For everyone thinking we should have waited. Awsner me this, how many teams can afford 13.5 million right before or during spring training? You know it's only a few and they might not need a starter. You think we should have paid some salary and got back a better prospect, but DD wanted to clear the salary. Let's see what he does with it. I also like Tobias, he has a good bat. I can see him having a huge year with his bat and DD flipping him for a player we need down the road. We could flip him for another Ziegler if we have a need down the road. The market was set with the Garcia trade earlier this year, so I'm just surprised by the uproar over this trade. I think you're spot on. No one would have batted an eye if Buchholz's option had been declined. Instead, they picked it up because they thought he might be needed. Sale makes him unnecessary, so why fret over the return when the Phillies are taking on his entire salary? If Tobias has a good year I think it's all but a given that DD will use him as a trade chip. He seems to like selling high on guys (Guerra, L. Alejandro Basabe, and even Kopech, albeit to a certain degree with him.) I'd much rather have the salary cleared now, instead of waiting until ST and potentially losing out on that opportunity.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2016 20:58:52 GMT -5
I'm disappointed with the trade return as I think Tobias might have a decent hit tool, but little else and he's pretty fringy.
The real objective is obvious and Dombrowski, as usual, has been up front and honest about it. He has a mandate from management to get under the luxury tax limit. That's the biggest reason why he's stayed away from Edwin Encarnacion and a pretty big reason why he's pretty pleased with himself - getting Chris Sale, an elite starter, without going over the luxury tax limit.
The fact of the matter is that getting rid of Buchholz's salary was worth more to the Red Sox at this point than what they actually got in return. It was obvious they weren't going to get a Luis Castillo type prospect for Buchholz as the Marlins would have been stupid to surrender him for Buchholz.
I think Dombrowski looked around, determined that the market wasn't that great for him. If it had been, I think he would have dealt him already. At this point the real prize is to be a good deal under the luxury tax limit so they can make a deal if they need to at the deadline, whether they need bullpen help or if they need a better bat than Mitch Moreland - for example, perhaps Bautista signs elsewhere for a year and the Red Sox acquire him at the deadline to DH and would have the funds available without going over the limit.
Staying away from going over the limit is crucial. If Otani is available after the offseason the Red Sox need to be in position to bid a huge amount for him without worrying about huge penalties, and of course, the season afterwards the free agent market is flush with talent, and of course the Sox have their own talent to tie up, starting (and maybe ending) with Betts.
The return on Buchholz is less important than the other benefits they get by going under the limit, so I can't complain too much.
And yeah, I have no doubt that Buchholz will pitch very well for the Phillies, become prime trade bait at the deadline, net the Phillies a really good prospect, much better than Tobias, and then Buchholz will disappoint whatever team picks him up. Then he'll be a free agent and get himself a good contract elsewhere and be the same maddening pitcher he's always been.
Buchholz was a good pitcher for the Sox, but not what I had hoped he'd be. He was kind of a disappointment, but certainly not a failure.
I'll always fondly remember the no-hitter and how good he was in 2010 and how great he was when he took the mound in 2013. I'll remember how many times I thought he needed to be booted back to Pawtucket, and I'll always be annoyed that he came up so small when he was needed in 2016. If he had held up his end of the bargain the Red Sox would still have Anderson Espinoza or Michael Kopech (Pomeranz would not have been needed and only one of those pitchers would have went for Sale) in the organization.
So Carl Pavano (along with Tony Armas gotten for Mike Stanley) begot Pedro Martinez which begot Clay Buchholz (as a compensation pick) which now stands as Josh Tobias.
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