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Sickels Red Sox Top 20/MLB Top 200 Prospects
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2017 9:18:33 GMT -5
I like that he has Dalbec ahead of Travis with the same letter grade. For me, I prefer the longshot high ceiling to safer high floor bet. See I'm the opposite on this because of Travis as I think he's under rated and overlooked. The guy has produced everywhere he's been and gets very little love because he doesn't have any sexiness to his game. Dalbec I'll start getting excited about when I see him do something against decent competition. Not saying he is bad but that K rate is a huge issue. Mashing in Lowell is not all that Impressive.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 10, 2017 10:04:12 GMT -5
I like that he has Dalbec ahead of Travis with the same letter grade. For me, I prefer the longshot high ceiling to safer high floor bet. See I'm the opposite on this because of Travis as I think he's under rated and overlooked. The guy has produced everywhere he's been and gets very little love because he doesn't have any sexiness to his game. Dalbec I'll start getting excited about when I see him do something against decent competition. Not saying he is bad but that K rate is a huge issue. Mashing in Lowell is not all that Impressive. 2016 K rate: Sam Travis: 21.1 % Bobby Dalbec: 23.1 %
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2017 10:28:00 GMT -5
See I'm the opposite on this because of Travis as I think he's under rated and overlooked. The guy has produced everywhere he's been and gets very little love because he doesn't have any sexiness to his game. Dalbec I'll start getting excited about when I see him do something against decent competition. Not saying he is bad but that K rate is a huge issue. Mashing in Lowell is not all that Impressive. 2016 K rate: Sam Travis: 21.1 % Bobby Dalbec: 23.1 % No doubt but AAA vs Lowell and his K rate in 2016 in college was 31.6% so if you add that in its 28.6. 34 games in Lowell shouldn't change our outlook on him that much. I think people sell Travis short. I understand he's ranked top 5, but I wouldn't put Dalbec in front of him and it looks like this site wouldn't either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 10, 2017 10:33:27 GMT -5
2016 K rate: Sam Travis: 21.1 % Bobby Dalbec: 23.1 % No doubt but AAA vs Lowell and his K rate in 2016 in college was 31.6% so if you add that in its 28.6. 34 games in Lowell shouldn't change our outlook on him that much. I think people sell Travis short. I understand he's ranked top 5, but I wouldn't put Dalbec in front of him and it looks like this site wouldn't either. Fair on Travis vs. Dalbec - we obviously agree - but considering that he apparently completely changed his swing and approach from college to pro ball, I don't think you can necessarily just chalk it up to weak competition. Scouts who saw him in both places said he looked completely different. (http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/08/return-to-past-hitting-mechanics.html) There's also no longer having to worry about pitching, the fact that he likes wooden bats better than metal, etc. There's actually enough anecdotal evidence to justify his uptick in performance that it needn't be dismissed as noise. Obviously, it would've been nice to see him in Greenville, but frankly, the level of competition at that point of the season isn't really THAT much better. I will say, though, that while the Brass unanimously had Travis ahead of Dalbec, if Dalbec mashes to start 2017, it may not be that way for long. (Not implying that you'd disagree or agree with that, but just tacking it on.)
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2017 10:36:24 GMT -5
Yea I don't hate the guy by any stretch. Just can't buy in yet. Certainly, like what he did and I like there are apparent reasons for it. Will be watching both closely this year... god knows this organization needs them.
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 236
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Post by pd on Jan 10, 2017 18:31:31 GMT -5
Seeing Chavis in the top 10 surprised and depressed me. Top 3 is still something to be excited about.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 11, 2017 22:57:21 GMT -5
I like that he has Dalbec ahead of Travis with the same letter grade. For me, I prefer the longshot high ceiling to safer high floor bet. See I'm the opposite on this because of Travis as I think he's under rated and overlooked. The guy has produced everywhere he's been and gets very little love because he doesn't have any sexiness to his game. Dalbec I'll start getting excited about when I see him do something against decent competition. Not saying he is bad but that K rate is a huge issue. Mashing in Lowell is not all that Impressive. I really don't have any handle on Travis. Part of me wonders if he's a Youkilis-type hitter (without the walks, of course) who just starts crushing bombs in his late 20s and turns into a .280-.300/.360/.550 masher. But then I want to come back to earth and be realistic, and figure he's a .260/.330/.440 guy who hits 12-18 taters a year. I do think he's got legit sleeper potential if he learns to pull a Hanley and adjust his swing path a bit. Is it nonsensical to say I won't be surprised if he surprises? Early prediction: Devers has his breakout year this year, and it's a doozy. I'm also very excited for Groome in Greenville. That curve has me thinking he doesn't struggle much until AA. Let's hope he can add a few ticks to work 93-94 instead of 91-92, and turn that change into a reliable solid-avg or better third pitch.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 11, 2017 23:42:03 GMT -5
See I'm the opposite on this because of Travis as I think he's under rated and overlooked. The guy has produced everywhere he's been and gets very little love because he doesn't have any sexiness to his game. Dalbec I'll start getting excited about when I see him do something against decent competition. Not saying he is bad but that K rate is a huge issue. Mashing in Lowell is not all that Impressive. I really don't have any handle on Travis. Part of me wonders if he's a Youkilis-type hitter (without the walks, of course) who just starts crushing bombs in his late 20s and turns into a .280-.300/.360/.550 masher. But then I want to come back to earth and be realistic, and figure he's a .260/.330/.440 guy who hits 12-18 taters a year. I do think he's got legit sleeper potential if he learns to pull a Hanley and adjust his swing path a bit. Is it nonsensical to say I won't be surprised if he surprises? Early prediction: Devers has his breakout year this year, and it's a doozy. I'm also very excited for Groome in Greenville. That curve has me thinking he doesn't struggle much until AA. Let's hope he can add a few ticks to work 93-94 instead of 91-92, and turn that change into a reliable solid-avg or better third pitch. I was going to put your Devers outlook into the predictions thread but didn't because it's relative to the majors but I'm thinking Devers is going to raise a lot of eyebrows with normal age related progression and in a better hitters park than Salem Cavern.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 12, 2017 5:13:52 GMT -5
I really don't have any handle on Travis. Part of me wonders if he's a Youkilis-type hitter (without the walks, of course) who just starts crushing bombs in his late 20s and turns into a .280-.300/.360/.550 masher. But then I want to come back to earth and be realistic, and figure he's a .260/.330/.440 guy who hits 12-18 taters a year. I do think he's got legit sleeper potential if he learns to pull a Hanley and adjust his swing path a bit. Is it nonsensical to say I won't be surprised if he surprises? Early prediction: Devers has his breakout year this year, and it's a doozy. I'm also very excited for Groome in Greenville. That curve has me thinking he doesn't struggle much until AA. Let's hope he can add a few ticks to work 93-94 instead of 91-92, and turn that change into a reliable solid-avg or better third pitch. I was going to put your Devers outlook into the predictions thread but didn't because it's relative to the majors but I'm thinking Devers is going to raise a lot of eyebrows with normal age related progression and in a better hitters park than Salem Cavern. I hope that's the case with Devers. Realistically, he might be the last Sox prospect that might survive all the trade frenzy that Dave Dombrowski is pulling. I don't have any faith that Groome will stick around the next 3-4 years. Dave will trade him too if he needs to get somebody. The only reason why I even see Devers at least having a possible chance to stick around is because he's closer to the big leagues and the Sox have a possible need at the third base position in future years. The Sox are going to need cheap production somewhere the next 3 years. Going to be hard to find where that's going to come from outside of Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez. I would include Swihart in this group but he could always get traded for a Paul Goldshmidt this year too.
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Post by ryan24 on Jan 12, 2017 6:30:51 GMT -5
I was going to put your Devers outlook into the predictions thread but didn't because it's relative to the majors but I'm thinking Devers is going to raise a lot of eyebrows with normal age related progression and in a better hitters park than Salem Cavern. I hope that's the case with Devers. Realistically, he might be the last Sox prospect that might survive all the trade frenzy that Dave Dombrowski is pulling. I don't have any faith that Groome will stick around the next 3-4 years. Dave will trade him too if he needs to get somebody. The only reason why I even see Devers at least having a possible chance to stick around is because he's closer to the big leagues and the Sox have a possible need at the third base position in future years. The Sox are going to need cheap production somewhere the next 3 years. Going to be hard to find where that's going to come from outside of Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez. I would include Swihart in this group but he could always get traded for a Paul Goldshmidt this year too. this is a big year for devers. to see what he is made of. For DD to trade him he would be getting something young and very good. its not going to happen but someone like a machado type. Dave along with the rest of the teams are very concerned with salary cap control. Trade would be in the same vein as the sale trade. young established star under control and inexpensive in relative terms.
Groome I think is 2 years away from Dave making any decisions on. Groome is his pick and he spent a lot of money on. Got to give it a chance.
I think Dave trades a lot from his farm system but signs and develops prospects to get to the level that people want them in a trade for their guy. In fla. and Detroit Dave started with poor farm systems and built them up well enough to be able to use them as trading chips. Dave traded ALOT to get kimbrel and sales. But, you don't get something for nothing. Time will tell if he is a bum or a god.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 12, 2017 6:40:21 GMT -5
Anderson Espinoza was traded at the same age as Groome is now. Dave could trade him at any possible moment. Groome only signed for 3.6 million, that's not a lot. He actually signed for under what most people thought he would sign for.
Groome is Dave's pick but Dave hasn't shown any reluctance to keep any prospect outside of maybe Devers and Benintendi. These two players have developed quickly too so I think that's the sticking point of Dave keeping prospects. Either you develop quickly or you leave town for someone who is ready now. Which is why I think Groome is going to never see a Boston uniform.
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Post by ryan24 on Jan 12, 2017 7:09:39 GMT -5
Anderson Espinoza was traded at the same age as Groome is now. Dave could trade him at any possible moment. Groome only signed for 3.6 million, that's not a lot. He actually signed for under what most people thought he would sign for. Groome is Dave's pick but Dave hasn't shown any reluctance to keep any prospect outside of maybe Devers and Benintendi. These two players have developed quickly too so I think that's the sticking point of Dave keeping prospects. Either you develop quickly or you leave town for someone who is ready now. Which is why I think Groome is going to never see a Boston uniform. See where you are coming from, AE was not Dave's pick. Devers and beni were not Dave's picks either, but developed while dave was there to see them rise quickly. When a new CEO comes to town he tends to bring in his guys and lots of people in the old management tend to leave. This is what has happened with the sox front office. Theo's metric guys out and Dave's mix is in. Dave's guys depend less on metrics, not saying they do not use metrics just diff ways of looking at players.Not saying I agree or disagree with either mgt style. That's why I think groome stays at least for 2 yrs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2017 10:03:21 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 5, 2017 14:24:13 GMT -5
Developed quick is all relative.... Devers is young for his level but he's been in the system for years now and he's still realistically 1-2.5 years away from the big leagues. You can argue Kopech is developing more quickly and that Espinoza is just as quick. Point being I don't think quickness has anything to do with who he's traded or kept. I think redundancy on the major league roster has had more to do With it.
This IS the year we find out what Devers really is. Right now he's a young guy with great tools and projection who's performed well while playing in the low minors albeit as one of the youngest players. Everything looks good but a lot of guys look good in the lower levels only to get exposed where he's about to play. I have high confidence but this year is massive.
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 9, 2017 7:24:35 GMT -5
Looked at sickels, soxprospects and mlb rankings of the sox prospects and find some very interesting evals. The first 2 have dalbec rated 4 and 5 , mlb has him 16. Lakins, sickels has him not in the first 20, soxp has him at 17 and mlb has him at 8. Marrero is not in the top 20 with sickels,38 with the soxp, and mlb has him at 15. All three experts but not seeing the same things. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I see dalbec as over rated by sickels and soxp and mlb more in line with what has been shown to date. He has not even played high A yet. By july I will be glad to say I was wrong , but for now I have not fallen in love with him as much. Lakins is a puzzling one for me. Not sure what to make of him. He is not a classic pitcher like a groome, but he does throw strikes. What does mlb see that the other 2 do not. Marrero has a lot of data on. He has played some in the bigs and has played at AAA. He appears to be a good field no hit ss for the bigs. Would have thought all 3 would have been close in their ratings. When ever I see things like this, I think back to a story I read about the dodgers scouting this centerfielder. The scout came back and told the GM to forget it, the kid can not hit a curve. Well that kid was a player by the name of Willie Mays. I am not an expert, but always find it interesting what people see in certain players. Do you apply the eye test with metrics or do you go strictly with metrics. The eye test more in line with DD thinking versus heavy metrics which is in line with theo and the gang.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 9, 2017 8:33:55 GMT -5
Looked at sickels, soxprospects and mlb rankings of the sox prospects and find some very interesting evals. The first 2 have dalbec rated 4 and 5 , mlb has him 16. Lakins, sickels has him not in the first 20, soxp has him at 17 and mlb has him at 8. Marrero is not in the top 20 with sickels,38 with the soxp, and mlb has him at 15. All three experts but not seeing the same things. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I see dalbec as over rated by sickels and soxp and mlb more in line with what has been shown to date. He has not even played high A yet. By july I will be glad to say I was wrong , but for now I have not fallen in love with him as much. Lakins is a puzzling one for me. Not sure what to make of him. He is not a classic pitcher like a groome, but he does throw strikes. What does mlb see that the other 2 do not. Marrero has a lot of data on. He has played some in the bigs and has played at AAA. He appears to be a good field no hit ss for the bigs. Would have thought all 3 would have been close in their ratings. When ever I see things like this, I think back to a story I read about the dodgers scouting this centerfielder. The scout came back and told the GM to forget it, the kid can not hit a curve. Well that kid was a player by the name of Willie Mays. I am not an expert, but always find it interesting what people see in certain players. Do you apply the eye test with metrics or do you go strictly with metrics. The eye test more in line with DD thinking versus heavy metrics which is in line with theo and the gang. MLB hasn't updated their team rankings, only the Top 100 in baseball. Annual update for the Sox system is due Feb 20th.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2017 9:56:31 GMT -5
As for "seeing the same things", that's not a term I'd use with Sickels. He'd have to "see" anyone to use that term.
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 10, 2017 17:10:35 GMT -5
As for "seeing the same things", that's not a term I'd use with Sickels. He'd have to "see" anyone to use that term. Sorry not sure what you mean by this comment. Not that familiar with sickels.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2017 17:53:37 GMT -5
As for "seeing the same things", that's not a term I'd use with Sickels. He'd have to "see" anyone to use that term. Sorry not sure what you mean by this comment. Not that familiar with sickels. He lives in Kansas and as far as I know hasn't seen a Red Sox affiliate play in a while.
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 11, 2017 11:42:48 GMT -5
Sorry not sure what you mean by this comment. Not that familiar with sickels. He lives in Kansas and as far as I know hasn't seen a Red Sox affiliate play in a while. OK understand now. It would be nice if the different rating systems could all update their lists in the same time frame. Would be interested in why the time frame for the mlb guys does not happen until the 20th of feb.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Feb 11, 2017 18:18:08 GMT -5
Looked at sickels, soxprospects and mlb rankings of the sox prospects and find some very interesting evals. The first 2 have dalbec rated 4 and 5 , mlb has him 16. Lakins, sickels has him not in the first 20, soxp has him at 17 and mlb has him at 8. Marrero is not in the top 20 with sickels,38 with the soxp, and mlb has him at 15. All three experts but not seeing the same things. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I see dalbec as over rated by sickels and soxp and mlb more in line with what has been shown to date. He has not even played high A yet. By july I will be glad to say I was wrong , but for now I have not fallen in love with him as much. Lakins is a puzzling one for me. Not sure what to make of him. He is not a classic pitcher like a groome, but he does throw strikes. What does mlb see that the other 2 do not. Marrero has a lot of data on. He has played some in the bigs and has played at AAA. He appears to be a good field no hit ss for the bigs. Would have thought all 3 would have been close in their ratings. When ever I see things like this, I think back to a story I read about the dodgers scouting this centerfielder. The scout came back and told the GM to forget it, the kid can not hit a curve. Well that kid was a player by the name of Willie Mays. I am not an expert, but always find it interesting what people see in certain players. Do you apply the eye test with metrics or do you go strictly with metrics. The eye test more in line with DD thinking versus heavy metrics which is in line with theo and the gang. Human beings all have biases and frequently these biases are wrong or based on week info at best for example, a scout or someone here could say, "based on what I saw yadda yadda yadda, but often that is an extremely small sample size rendering the observation weak at best". If you start with numbers and UNDERSTAND what those numbers are telling you you will have a base understanding based on factual info. Then you should try to apply common sense to the numbers or tell me why are the numbers wrong, persuade me to think different. All projections are based on a system that are applied across the board. Or 1 approach to the whole. Decent projections systems will be fairly accurate but terrible at predicting breakout seasons etc, simply because they were never designed to do so. That is where common sense, scouting and other number evaluations need to be applied.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 12, 2017 15:24:45 GMT -5
He lives in Kansas and as far as I know hasn't seen a Red Sox affiliate play in a while. OK understand now. It would be nice if the different rating systems could all update their lists in the same time frame. Would be interested in why the time frame for the mlb guys does not happen until the 20th of feb. BA begins rolling theirs out earlier because they have a publication deadline for the Handbook. MLB.com smartly waits until the run up to Spring Training because that's when people are most likely going to be wanting to jump back into baseball. Note how BA waits to release the Top 100 until this timeframe as well. They'd probably wait until now for all of their lists if they could.
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Post by jmei on Feb 12, 2017 15:30:53 GMT -5
Sorry not sure what you mean by this comment. Not that familiar with sickels. He lives in Kansas and as far as I know hasn't seen a Red Sox affiliate play in a while. This is kind of harsh. How many times does Alex Speier see a Red Sox affiliate in person a year? With MiLB.tv and a good network of contacts in the industry, you can put together a useful enough top 20 list despite not seeing a team's prospects in person. Sickels' list certainly isn't the gold standard, but it adds to the conversation IMO.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 12, 2017 20:42:56 GMT -5
He lives in Kansas and as far as I know hasn't seen a Red Sox affiliate play in a while. This is kind of harsh. How many times does Alex Speier see a Red Sox affiliate in person a year? With MiLB.tv and a good network of contacts in the industry, you can put together a useful enough top 20 list despite not seeing a team's prospects in person. Sickels' list certainly isn't the gold standard, but it adds to the conversation IMO. Speier doesn't try to do it for all 30 teams. Big difference. I think it's do-able for one team, but a bit much to try to do for all of baseball.
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 13, 2017 6:08:03 GMT -5
Looked at sickels, soxprospects and mlb rankings of the sox prospects and find some very interesting evals. The first 2 have dalbec rated 4 and 5 , mlb has him 16. Lakins, sickels has him not in the first 20, soxp has him at 17 and mlb has him at 8. Marrero is not in the top 20 with sickels,38 with the soxp, and mlb has him at 15. All three experts but not seeing the same things. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I see dalbec as over rated by sickels and soxp and mlb more in line with what has been shown to date. He has not even played high A yet. By july I will be glad to say I was wrong , but for now I have not fallen in love with him as much. Lakins is a puzzling one for me. Not sure what to make of him. He is not a classic pitcher like a groome, but he does throw strikes. What does mlb see that the other 2 do not. Marrero has a lot of data on. He has played some in the bigs and has played at AAA. He appears to be a good field no hit ss for the bigs. Would have thought all 3 would have been close in their ratings. When ever I see things like this, I think back to a story I read about the dodgers scouting this centerfielder. The scout came back and told the GM to forget it, the kid can not hit a curve. Well that kid was a player by the name of Willie Mays. I am not an expert, but always find it interesting what people see in certain players. Do you apply the eye test with metrics or do you go strictly with metrics. The eye test more in line with DD thinking versus heavy metrics which is in line with theo and the gang. Human beings all have biases and frequently these biases are wrong or based on week info at best for example, a scout or someone here could say, "based on what I saw yadda yadda yadda, but often that is an extremely small sample size rendering the observation weak at best". If you start with numbers and UNDERSTAND what those numbers are telling you you will have a base understanding based on factual info. Then you should try to apply common sense to the numbers or tell me why are the numbers wrong, persuade me to think different. All projections are based on a system that are applied across the board. Or 1 approach to the whole. Decent projections systems will be fairly accurate but terrible at predicting breakout seasons etc, simply because they were never designed to do so. That is where common sense, scouting and other number evaluations need to be applied. So you apply Theo's system to dustin p and you use common sense and come up with that inspite of his size he is a gold glove all star second baseman. Not making fun here just adding to the discussion. It has always amazed me that some people have the ability to consistent look at a prospect and project where he will be in 3 or 4 years.
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