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Sickels Red Sox Top 20/MLB Top 200 Prospects
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 13, 2017 9:37:44 GMT -5
Human beings all have biases and frequently these biases are wrong or based on week info at best for example, a scout or someone here could say, "based on what I saw yadda yadda yadda, but often that is an extremely small sample size rendering the observation weak at best". If you start with numbers and UNDERSTAND what those numbers are telling you you will have a base understanding based on factual info. Then you should try to apply common sense to the numbers or tell me why are the numbers wrong, persuade me to think different. All projections are based on a system that are applied across the board. Or 1 approach to the whole. Decent projections systems will be fairly accurate but terrible at predicting breakout seasons etc, simply because they were never designed to do so. That is where common sense, scouting and other number evaluations need to be applied. So you apply Theo's system to dustin p and you use common sense and come up with that inspite of his size he is a gold glove all star second baseman. Not making fun here just adding to the discussion. It has always amazed me that some people have the ability to consistent look at a prospect and project where he will be in 3 or 4 years. "Theo's system" had some early-round hits (Pedroia, Ellsbury, to lesser degrees Buchholz and Lowrie, 2011 almost in its entirety), but it also had plenty of misses (Hansen, Bowden, Place, K. Johnson, Dent, Vitek). And that's not even counting the pitchers who got derailed because of TJ, etc. (Kelly, Hagadone I think). Now, that's ok and perfectly normal, and the Sox were certainly VERY good at amateur scouting and player dev during that time, but let's not pretend Theo's regime was some prospect soothsaying era in the organization.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 13, 2017 11:41:59 GMT -5
1) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox, Grade A 2) Yoan Moncada, INF, White Sox, Grade A9) Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox, Grade A- 15) Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox, Grade A-/B+21) Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Padres, Grade B+/A-35) Manny Margot, OF, Padres, Grade B+45) Jason Groome, LHP, Red Sox, Grade B+ 118) Mauricio Dubon, SS, Brewers, Grade B Some of his comments: COMMENT: Dubon is probably the outlier here but I think he made real progress with his hitting in ’16. COMMENT: Winter consensus across the industry puts Andrew Benintendi at number one. In this case, I agree with consensus. Once you get past the Top 100 especially, you should take a "neighborhood" tier approach rather than "this guy at 179 is clearly better than the guy at 182." www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/13/14598358/top-200-mlb-prospects-for-2017-minor-league-ball
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Post by bluechip on Feb 13, 2017 23:20:02 GMT -5
He really must like Dubon.
He also is the highest on Devers that we have seen so far.
So of the major lists, the following have Benintendi number 1:
Baseball America MLB.com Keith Law John Sickles
The following have someone else:
BP
So far no one has rated Moncada better than Benintendi.
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 14, 2017 8:02:55 GMT -5
So you apply Theo's system to dustin p and you use common sense and come up with that inspite of his size he is a gold glove all star second baseman. Not making fun here just adding to the discussion. It has always amazed me that some people have the ability to consistent look at a prospect and project where he will be in 3 or 4 years. "Theo's system" had some early-round hits (Pedroia, Ellsbury, to lesser degrees Buchholz and Lowrie, 2011 almost in its entirety), but it also had plenty of misses (Hansen, Bowden, Place, K. Johnson, Dent, Vitek). And that's not even counting the pitchers who got derailed because of TJ, etc. (Kelly, Hagadone I think). Now, that's ok and perfectly normal, and the Sox were certainly VERY good at amateur scouting and player dev during that time, but let's not pretend Theo's regime was some prospect soothsaying era in the organization. I used dustin because when he was drafted he was trashed. too small will not hit enough compared to other prospects on the board at the time. The sox made a big mistake drafting him as a 1, at least that is what most of the publications said. He was during Theo's reign and this site is very high on theo. In fla. and Detroit DD inherited weak farm systems and built them up enough to be able to use them to trade for pieces to develop very competitive teams. Theo and DD use different systems to build the big league club. Is one better than the other hard to say. But both seem to have the ability to look at players and project them out in further years to be very successful. Do both have misses they certainly do. I think that the fun part of this site is that there is great passion for prospects and we get very excited over the future for many and think that every one that is traded away is terrible. You look at several that we have fallen in love with. AE never pitched above A and has not dominated yet. Small and maybe throws too hard for his size. Kopech, think deepjohn, is highly rated but has only pitched at AA a little bit. Can he/will he have the composure to move higher up. Lots have been there and not made it. Moncada at the AA and major league level showed he was not ready. High strikeout rate. What position does he play? Dalbec this year looks like the golden boy. This is the fun part on this site. What some people see in a prospect and others do not. In each of the cases mentioned above I wil be more than happy to say I was wrong and we traded away 3 future hall of famers. How dumb.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 14, 2017 10:07:06 GMT -5
He really must like Dubon. He also is the highest on Devers that we have seen so far. So of the major lists, the following have Benintendi number 1: Baseball America MLB.com Keith Law John Sickles The following have someone else: BP So far no one has rated Moncada better than Benintendi. BA also had an addendum piece for players outside the top 100 in which they named Dubon so, Sickels isn't alone in that boat at 118.
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