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Realistic outcomes for the 2017 season
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2017 13:56:03 GMT -5
We are in the dead days of the offseason and I didn't know where this fit so I'm making it it's own topic. Everyone has the Red Sox as AL East favorites and front runners in the AL (with Cleveland), but in looking at the roster it's not so hard to see a season coming up short of those expectations. I'm not saying I don't like the roster or expect these things to happen but without stretching things this is what we are looking at:
Catcher: without Leon's few months of brilliance this was a huge black hole last year. It came from no where and had a major drop off. If he's a pumpkin we are left with the same tandem that was bad last year.
1b: Moreland should be fine as a great glove 1b and as a 6/7 hitter with a little pop.
2b: he's about as steady as they come when not banged up but we've seen how easily he can roll a wrist diving around the field and the impact that has on him.
SS: Xander is a safe bet to be good, but they could really need him to be the consistent force he hasn't shown able to be.
3b: A lot is riding on Pablo... I for one think he will be good, but if he's bad again and they need to start holt that's bad news. Especially, if Pedey gets injured.
DH: if Hanley is 2016 Hanley it's great if not it's probably really bad. Is there an in between with him? If bad Hanley shows up this team could be hurting.
LF: Benintendi is anointed as the second coming and he may be, but what if he plays like a semi normal rookie. Say .270/.330/435? Is that less that what the team needs or is relying on?
Cf: Bradley - we know the defense is great but what if he doesn't have one of those inhumane hot streaks this year and he other wise it's the way he does the rest of the time with ups and downs?! What do his final numbers look like?
Rf: mookie is a stud no worries
Rotation:
Porcello: numbers are bound to regress. Whats realistic? As good as last year as a ceiling to as low as a low 4 ERA? He will eat innings.
Sale: should be great but maybe 3.30 great vs 2.70 great.
Price: had something like a 3.4 era last 28 starts so let's say that's his likely performance.
Bottom 3 should get 2 decent years but maybe no great ones...
Regardless he rotation is going to be good but will it dominate enough to carry an offense that falls way short of expectations?
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 10, 2017 14:02:05 GMT -5
I still think Luis Valbuena would make for a solid addition. The possibility of 3B turning into a black hole/being manned by Holt for far too long makes it too frightening to actually stand pat with this roster.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 10, 2017 18:44:29 GMT -5
Realistically speaking, it all just a Fantasy. But I expect that Mookie will be MVP, the Sox will win 100 games and Leopard Skin wearing rock n rollers won't be making a comeback.
k.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 10, 2017 19:16:44 GMT -5
We are in the dead days of the offseason and I didn't know where this fit so I'm making it it's own topic. Everyone has the Red Sox as AL East favorites and front runners in the AL (with Cleveland), but in looking at the roster it's not so hard to see a season coming up short of those expectations. I'm not saying I don't like the roster or expect these things to happen but without stretching things this is what we are looking at: Catcher: without Leon's few months of brilliance this was a huge black hole last year. It came from no where and had a major drop off. If he's a pumpkin we are left with the same tandem that was bad last year. 1b: Moreland should be fine as a great glove 1b and as a 6/7 hitter with a little pop. 2b: he's about as steady as they come when not banged up but we've seen how easily he can roll a wrist diving around the field and the impact that has on him. SS: Xander is a safe bet to be good, but they could really need him to be the consistent force he hasn't shown able to be. 3b: A lot is riding on Pablo... I for one think he will be good, but if he's bad again and they need to start holt that's bad news. Especially, if Pedey gets injured. DH: if Hanley is 2016 Hanley it's great if not it's probably really bad. Is there an in between with him? If bad Hanley shows up this team could be hurting. LF: Benintendi is anointed as the second coming and he may be, but what if he plays like a semi normal rookie. Say .270/.330/435? Is that less that what the team needs or is relying on? Cf: Bradley - we know the defense is great but what if he doesn't have one of those inhumane hot streaks this year and he other wise it's the way he does the rest of the time with ups and downs?! What do his final numbers look like? Rf: mookie is a stud no worries Rotation: Porcello: numbers are bound to regress. Whats realistic? As good as last year as a ceiling to as low as a low 4 ERA? He will eat innings. Sale: should be great but maybe 3.30 great vs 2.70 great. Price: had something like a 3.4 era last 28 starts so let's say that's his likely performance. Bottom 3 should get 2 decent years but maybe no great ones... Regardless he rotation is going to be good but will it dominate enough to carry an offense that falls way short of expectations? You titled the thread "realistic expectations" and early on you indicate Sox are right up there with Cleveland. After that--- you went mainly negative. There were few "what ifs" on the positive side and a lot you looked at the negative.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 10, 2017 20:02:34 GMT -5
It was realistic outcomes not expectations and the point was to highlight the negative because the positive has been highly covered. Was trying to highlight a realistic bottom of the range that doesn't include catastrophic injuries.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 10, 2017 21:39:44 GMT -5
Realistically speaking, it all just a Fantasy. But I expect that Mookie will be MVP, the Sox will win 100 games and Leopard Skin wearing rock n rollers won't be making a comeback. k. Yeah I can only speak for myself in being excited that this might be the first 100 win red sox team I have seen in my lifetime. I know this stuff doesn't matter to most people on here but I appreciate utter dominance. It's one of the reasons why that 2007 was one of my favorite championship seasons. That team had 97 wins and was dominant from start to finish. The only time they were about to lose it all was when they were down 3 games to 1 in the championship series against Cleveland and didn't lose from that point on for the rest of the playoffs. Hopefully the 2017 team can top that.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 10, 2017 22:11:54 GMT -5
It was realistic outcomes not expectations and the point was to highlight the negative because the positive has been highly covered. Was trying to highlight a realistic bottom of the range that doesn't include catastrophic injuries. I think a reasonable-probability (like, 20th %ile) worst-case" scenario is around 86-87 wins. There are a LOT of holes in terms of depth, from CIF to OF to bullpen to post-6 SP. I think the guys pencilled in as starters represent a fair-shot 100-win team (probably around 70th-80th%ile), given that they were a 100-win+ team by third-order record last year anyway. The rotation is vastly improved (which it was pre-Sale, anyway, given the 4/5 slots' pre-deadline performance last year), but there are legitimate concerns re: health (Rodriguez, Pomeranz), decline (Price; Sale's FB being down substantially), and volatility (Porcello, Wright). FWIW, as much as I disliked the Sale deal on long-term/non-need spending terms, it does have huge upside, both in terms of Sale's potential performance, and effects on the bullpen and staff stability as a whole. I think Porcello is evolving as a *pitcher*, and I don't think last year is even his "real" ceiling. I personally think he'll approach or surpass that performance if he stays healthy. I think your Price estimation is probably pretty accurate. I think Sale will be excellent. I'm also bullish on Rodriguez despite the health concerns. Pomeranz I'm less confident in, but I do think he'll be better than serviceable. OTOH, I'm much less confident in the INF. They really can't afford any significant injuries unless Marco Hernandez takes a big step forward. Holt is a 2nd-division/borderline 1st div starter at second, so a Pedroia injury for more than 6 weeks could really, really hurt them if there are other nagging injuries. Same thing if Panda struggles, forcing Holt to start. If Bogaerts goes down for 4-6 weeks, they're really in trouble. And Moreland isn't as stellar defensively as you describe...good, but not enough to carry a terrible bat if he goes that way. LOTS of depth problems there. I'm not worried about the OF despite the depth issues. I think they stay healthy, and there's sufficient positional redundancy to cover any injury defensively (i.e., JBJ to RF, Benintendi to CF, Young in LF if Mookie were out for a bit) and offensively as long as its minor. I think a .270/.330/.440 or so line from Benintendi would be adequate or better, since I expect his defense to be plus. I also think he's destined for .300/.360/.500, but that's unfair to count on. JBJ dropping to .250/.330/.450 would hurt, but not critically. And unless Mookie gets hurt, I agree that there's little concern. I like Young as the 4th OF/part-time DH. I also think Hanley is a good bet to play well because he's less likely to get hurt (plenty of DH time), and his improved bat path/elevation after June last year portends a sustainable performance baseline. When healthy, he's a very dangerous hitter. He's also been substantially better over his career as a DH. Yeah, the sample is small, but it's well over 100 PA...not 30-50. Bullpens are always volatile, but there's a number of very good arms, and solid ones. I suppose Kimbrel could implode (actually, I think it's a legitimate concern that he pulls a Rosenthal '16), but I love the Thornburg acquisition, and I think with him, Kelly, and even Barnes, there's a safety net. I think Ross is terrific (and underrated), and Smith might provide some value by July/August. I think a critically disastrous mess is pretty unlikely, and the upside for excellence is much greater than the downside risk. C is a huge question mark, but I think that Vazquez should be a bit better, and even if Leon is .220/.270/.350 or so, they can hack it, provided there's performance elsewhere (i.e., the rotation is as advertised/projected, or Benintendi is a 3.5-WAR guy and not his 1.8 projection). Realistically speaking, they can weather one or two significant problems probably most places but in the infield. They had some really awful performances in last year's rotation, a weak LF, and C issues, and still pretty handily won the division. Obviously, it takes a little luck and health. Even in several areas of weak "depth," there's good redundancy (like the OF, or the rotation, with Wright a viable 3). So health will be key; I'm less concerned about poor performance because other than Porcello, there weren't any real "WOW" performances that said "one-hit wonder." Mookie, for example, was amazing, but I think that's probably not even his best yet. And Porcello I think has just genuinely taken a step forward. Leon's offense was the one real head-scratcher, but it was only for a third of the season. Pretty much everyone else...meh, no real surprises. If a few of those guys actually HAVE big years, there's your 100 wins. Again, barring unlikely total collapse or multiple key major injuries.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2017 23:07:40 GMT -5
It wouldn't shock me if....
The Red Sox won 100 games.
The Red Sox lead the league in both runs for and runs against.
David Ortiz makes a dramatic return at about the time Moreland's contract is 6 months old and at a time when we'd stay under the cap.
The Sox had as many as 7 dominant starters, several of which are cost controlled, excess bullpen pieces and three viable catchers which Trader Dave uses to pretty much restocked the farm.
Benintendi bats second, has little or no adjustment slump and the increase in LF WAR is significantly greater than any decrease in DH WAR.
Pablo has a plus WAR year and the overall 3B WAR is significantly better than last year's.
ADDS:
Betts and Pomeranz sign extensions but the details will take into the season to iron out.
Kelly's Chris Archer slider (his words) makes him a viable dominant starter.
Hembree is significantly better than group think.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 11, 2017 2:12:12 GMT -5
It wouldn't shock me if.... The Red Sox won 100 games. The Red Sox lead the league in both runs for and runs against. David Ortiz makes a dramatic return at about the time Moreland's contract is 6 months old and at a time when we'd stay under the cap. The Sox had as many as 7 dominant starters, several of which are cost controlled, excess bullpen pieces and three viable catchers which Trader Dave uses to pretty much restocked the farm. Benintendi bats second, has little or no adjustment slump and the increase in LF WAR is significantly greater than any decrease in DH WAR. Pablo has a plus WAR year and the overall 3B WAR is significantly better than last year's. ADDS: Betts and Pomeranz sign extensions but the details will take into the season to iron out. Kelly's Chris Archer slider (his words) makes him a viable dominant starter. Hembree is significantly better than group think. I'm presuming that you mean lead the league in run prevention? In that case, I'd be inclined to agree with you. I wouldn't say it's likely (a lot would have to go right), but I'd certainly be unsurprised. I think it's 50/50 they lead in RS and maybe 1/3 or 1/4 that they lead in run prevention. This was a very good team before Sale/Thornburg. 100 wins is easily within reach.
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Post by tonyc on Jan 11, 2017 14:15:47 GMT -5
Given the injuries/issues Swihart and Vasquez had in 2016, that will compensate for any upside blip Leon had. I agree things seem solid. Pedro, thanks for the reminder. In May 2007 I had a retinal detachment occur twice, and perhaps only Telson knows the difficult recovery, not to mention facing blindness- you must stay face down, including during sleep at all times (so that a surgically placed bubble can rise upward and reattach it). This eventually worked and the one thing keeping me going during months of recovery was I had a special upside down reverse mirror/chair to enable watching TV- the 2007 Redsox were the cure! I can see how important baseball was to people during WW2. Post season I sat with some Cleveland fans when they were down 3 games to one- and facing multiple 19 game winners- and told them I thought Cleveland pretty much had it.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 11, 2017 16:49:31 GMT -5
Given the injuries/issues Swihart and Vasquez had in 2016, that will compensate for any upside blip Leon had. I agree things seem solid. Pedro, thanks for the reminder. In May 2007 I had a retinal detachment occur twice, and perhaps only Telson knows the difficult recovery, not to mention facing blindness- you must stay face down, including during sleep at all times (so that a surgically placed bubble can rise upward and reattach it). This eventually worked and the one thing keeping me going during months of recovery was I had a special upside down reverse mirror/chair to enable watching TV- the 2007 Redsox were the cure! I can see how important baseball was to people during WW2. Post season I sat with some Cleveland fans when they were down 3 games to one- and facing multiple 19 game winners- and told them I thought Cleveland pretty much had it. Dang TC! I'm glad you kept your vision. That's a long process. Kudos on you for doing the work. I got lazy this past year rehabbing my Achilles tear and now my left calf is a withered twig. I'm glad you stayed with it!
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Post by tonyc on Jan 11, 2017 20:05:54 GMT -5
Telson sorry to hear about your calf, but thanks much for your well wishes! Soon after the real Tony C finally quit I took months of intensive trainings at the long since defunct Ken Keyes center, the author of Handbook to Higher Consciousness and Hundreth Monkey. He created a system to accept "unacceptable" events combining cognitive therapy and spiritual principles. I've been facilitating a small group for years and listen to affirmations daily. Of course I only connect on a deep level occasionally, and have the same difficulties accepting events everyone else does. However, during the blindness it was so obvious that any emotional trauma over that was just superimposing another issue on "WHAT IS", so even I was able to just surrender then. It sounds a bit like when Eckhart Tolle described his friend being locked in a noisy hot and dangerous Florida prison and finally just let go, reaching an epiphany. Or when he himself one night was suicidally depressed and just let go of everything and has since been living in a higher state.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 11, 2017 22:45:17 GMT -5
Telson sorry to hear about your calf, but thanks much for your well wishes! Soon after the real Tony C finally quit I took months of intensive trainings at the long since defunct Ken Keyes center, the author of Handbook to Higher Consciousness and Hundreth Monkey. He created a system to accept "unacceptable" events combining cognitive therapy and spiritual principles. I've been facilitating a small group for years and listen to affirmations daily. Of course I only connect on a deep level occasionally, and have the same difficulties accepting events everyone else does. However, during the blindness it was so obvious that any emotional trauma over that was just superimposing another issue on "WHAT IS", so even I was able to just surrender then. It sounds a bit like when Eckhart Tolle described his friend being locked in a noisy hot and dangerous Florida prison and finally just let go, reaching an epiphany. Or when he himself one night was suicidally depressed and just let go of everything and has since been living in a higher state. Funny how that sort of acceptance translates across life. How often do we see guys on the field with all the talent in the world get derailed by their own (over)thinking, and guys like Pedroia (or Tom Brady) who aren't the most athletically gifted, but work with what "IS," accept the failures, and move on by focusing on the task at hand? I had a HS track coach who was an amazing teacher of that sort of philosophy: control your own mindset, because the outcome is never guaranteed.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 12, 2017 4:26:46 GMT -5
It wouldn't shock me if.... The Red Sox won 100 games. The Red Sox lead the league in both runs for and runs against. David Ortiz makes a dramatic return at about the time Moreland's contract is 6 months old and at a time when we'd stay under the cap. The Sox had as many as 7 dominant starters, several of which are cost controlled, excess bullpen pieces and three viable catchers which Trader Dave uses to pretty much restocked the farm. Benintendi bats second, has little or no adjustment slump and the increase in LF WAR is significantly greater than any decrease in DH WAR. Pablo has a plus WAR year and the overall 3B WAR is significantly better than last year's. ADDS: Betts and Pomeranz sign extensions but the details will take into the season to iron out. Kelly's Chris Archer slider (his words) makes him a viable dominant starter. Hembree is significantly better than group think. Part 1 check: Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 7h7 hours ago “It’s a possibility, no doubt” that Benintendi hits 2nd, per Farrell fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/01/11/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-on-hot-stove-show-no-timetable-on-eduardo-rodriguez/ Should be penned in for the next six years. ADD: I also think he'll be rookie of the year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 13, 2017 9:25:30 GMT -5
I think people are overlooking how much of an issue catcher could be for this squad. Everyone is so nonchalant about this trio like it's just a given that one of them will be good enough. Remember when you have 3 options but no clear cut number one you can be in for a difficult situation. When one struggles the itch with be to jump To the next one right away. If you do that then you run the real risk of no one having a chance to get comfortable and in a groove. If you don't then you run the risk of long stretches of bad performance. Then you make a switch and if the next guy needs an adjustment period it extended it etc. Try and look at these guys without the Red Sox prospect homer lenses. Vasquez has given us no real reason to feel comfortable his bat will be good enough. That's different than shown signs he might be able to. Sure those are there, but anyone who's comfortable he will is lying to themselves.
Swithart is the opposite... sorta. There is no reason to think his defense, framing and game calling is even major league average and his bat isn't the type that can carry that.
Leon is probably the safest bet but before a 2.5 month insane hot streak that was followed but a couple of utter crap; he wasn't even in the picture for good reason. Baseball history is littered with guy's who had a good 2 month run and didn't do a thing other wise.
I'm more concerned about catching than I am 3rd base.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2017 11:03:12 GMT -5
I think people are overlooking how much of an issue catcher could be for this squad. Everyone is so nonchalant about this trio like it's just a given that one of them will be good enough. Remember when you have 3 options but no clear cut number one you can be in for a difficult situation. When one struggles the itch with be to jump To the next one right away. If you do that then you run the real risk of no one having a chance to get comfortable and in a groove. If you don't then you run the risk of long stretches of bad performance. Then you make a switch and if the next guy needs an adjustment period it extended it etc. Try and look at these guys without the Red Sox prospect homer lenses. Vasquez has given us no real reason to feel comfortable his bat will be good enough. That's different than shown signs he might be able to. Sure those are there, but anyone who's comfortable he will is lying to themselves. Swithart is the opposite... sorta. There is no reason to think his defense, framing and game calling is even major league average and his bat isn't the type that can carry that. Leon is probably the safest bet but before a 2.5 month insane hot streak that was followed but a couple of utter crap; he wasn't even in the picture for good reason. Baseball history is littered with guy's who had a good 2 month run and didn't do a thing other wise. I'm more concerned about catching than I am 3rd base. I think you underappreciate how much very good catcher defense is worth. They will be fine. They don't need Carlton Fisk.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 14, 2017 8:37:09 GMT -5
It wouldn't shock me if.... The Red Sox won 100 games. The Red Sox lead the league in both runs for and runs against. David Ortiz makes a dramatic return at about the time Moreland's contract is 6 months old and at a time when we'd stay under the cap. The Sox had as many as 7 dominant starters, several of which are cost controlled, excess bullpen pieces and three viable catchers which Trader Dave uses to pretty much restocked the farm. Benintendi bats second, has little or no adjustment slump and the increase in LF WAR is significantly greater than any decrease in DH WAR. Pablo has a plus WAR year and the overall 3B WAR is significantly better than last year's. ADDS: Betts and Pomeranz sign extensions but the details will take into the season to iron out. Kelly's Chris Archer slider (his words) makes him a viable dominant starter. Hembree is significantly better than group think. Part 1 check: Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 7h7 hours ago “It’s a possibility, no doubt” that Benintendi hits 2nd, per Farrell fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/01/11/red-sox-manager-john-farrell-on-hot-stove-show-no-timetable-on-eduardo-rodriguez/ Should be penned in for the next six years. ADD: I also think he'll be rookie of the year. Yay!! John Farrell is being proactive instead of reactive when trying to think about putting a really good baseball team together!!! Let's see if he actually says what he means. Pedrioa needs to lead off to limit the double plays to lead off a game and Benintendi is the ideal lefty number two hitter who can take a walk or move a man over.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 15, 2017 10:23:01 GMT -5
I think people are overlooking how much of an issue catcher could be for this squad. Everyone is so nonchalant about this trio like it's just a given that one of them will be good enough. Remember when you have 3 options but no clear cut number one you can be in for a difficult situation. When one struggles the itch with be to jump To the next one right away. If you do that then you run the real risk of no one having a chance to get comfortable and in a groove. If you don't then you run the risk of long stretches of bad performance. Then you make a switch and if the next guy needs an adjustment period it extended it etc. Try and look at these guys without the Red Sox prospect homer lenses. Vasquez has given us no real reason to feel comfortable his bat will be good enough. That's different than shown signs he might be able to. Sure those are there, but anyone who's comfortable he will is lying to themselves. Swithart is the opposite... sorta. There is no reason to think his defense, framing and game calling is even major league average and his bat isn't the type that can carry that. Leon is probably the safest bet but before a 2.5 month insane hot streak that was followed but a couple of utter crap; he wasn't even in the picture for good reason. Baseball history is littered with guy's who had a good 2 month run and didn't do a thing other wise. I'm more concerned about catching than I am 3rd base. I think you underappreciate how much very good catcher defense is worth. They will be fine. They don't need Carlton Fisk. I think you forget that it was a black hole last year until Leon came from no where. Vasquez was bad like real bad. His defense can be as good as you want, if his bat is the same as it was it's not a good situation. If you don't think it's something to watch or be concerned about you're probably still singing the Henry Owens is at worst a quality 5th starter song. It's dangerous to make assumptions about young players with these holes in their games. By the way raising a concern or question isn't the same as saying they shouldn't have these guys in this position or that you think they will fail.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 15, 2017 11:27:28 GMT -5
You yourself stated that these concerns are just concerns, and that this team is built to win.
I don't think anyone here wears deeply tinted rose colored glasses. It is true that injuries to CV, Swihart, Leon could again decimate the catching staff; (or any other position); or that the Sox offense could falter. This is true for EVERY team. That's the game, any game. Murphy's Law is real. But the Sox young, versatile and talented team seems better able to cope with their problems than other teams with theirs.
Poor hitting from Leon and CV won't sink this team. An injury to a starter or reliever won' t sink this team. Young, Castillo, Brockstar, Rutledge, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart, Butler, are actually pretty good positional depth; better then most teams. As are all the mLB FA signings like Dominguez. So while being aware of potential problems is always smart, accepting just how strong, balanced and talented is this young team seems the most realistic and healthiest approach.
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Post by thursty on Jan 15, 2017 11:28:37 GMT -5
I'll bet against Benintendi putting up an 800+ OPS in his first full year; it's rare to do that.
And so I don't think he should hit 2nd (which should be your best hitter), although his LH-ness is ideal.
Benintendi won't be JBJ/Xander 2014 bad - but he also isn't Mookie Betts and we can't just assume that it'll be a bump-less transition
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Post by gerry on Jan 15, 2017 11:50:41 GMT -5
I'll bet against Benintendi putting up an 800+ OPS in his first full year; it's rare to do that. And so I don't think he should hit 2nd (which should be your best hitter), although his LH-ness is ideal. Benintendi won't be JBJ/Xander 2014 bad - but he also isn't Mookie Betts and we can't just assume that it'll be a bump-less transition Based on his history, excellent approach at the plate, pitch recognition, high contact rate, smooth swing and quick wrists we can assume that, despite those bumps, he will provide solid offense as he learns the league, hit better in LF than we had in '16, and provide above average, rangy defense. In terms of handedness, the choices for #2 between the speedy Pedey and Betts are Beni, Moreland, Panda, Leon among the probable starters. Even by default I choose Beni. The alternative is to return to some sort of Pedey, Betts, XB, Hanley top 4, which worked last year but would make this bottom of the order lefty heavy. Farrell's proclivity towards a balanced L/R lineup might work best to start the season. Aware of sophomore issues, I choose confidence in Beni''s ability to figure it out and produce as he has always done.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 15, 2017 12:21:30 GMT -5
Speedy Pedey?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 15, 2017 12:25:55 GMT -5
You yourself stated that these concerns are just concerns, and that this team is built to win. I don't think anyone here wears deeply tinted rose colored glasses. It is true that injuries to CV, Swihart, Leon could again decimate the catching staff; (or any other position); or that the Sox offense could falter. This is true for EVERY team. That's the game, any game. Murphy's Law is real. But the Sox young, versatile and talented team seems better able to cope with their problems than other teams with theirs. Poor hitting from Leon and CV won't sink this team. An injury to a starter or reliever won' t sink this team. Young, Castillo, Brockstar, Rutledge, Hernandez, Travis, Swihart, Butler, are actually pretty good positional depth; better then most teams. As are all the mLB FA signings like Dominguez. So while being aware of potential problems is always smart, accepting just how strong, balanced and talented is this young team seems the most realistic and healthiest approach. Maybe I'm tainted by 3 of the last 5 years being disasters but I see a lot more questions/concerns on this team than other people seem to. I still love the roster and expect big things but I see enough realistic red flags that I can see a non playoff team without there even being anything out of the ordinary happening.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 15, 2017 12:35:34 GMT -5
I'll bet against Benintendi putting up an 800+ OPS in his first full year; it's rare to do that. And so I don't think he should hit 2nd (which should be your best hitter), although his LH-ness is ideal. Benintendi won't be JBJ/Xander 2014 bad - but he also isn't Mookie Betts and we can't just assume that it'll be a bump-less transition This is one of those times where OPS is really a wrong measure to use, because the only question I have with Benintendi is how quickly his power will develop. High OBP-low SLG players are underrated by OPS, because OBP is the much more important statistic but SLG has a much larger variance. And since the inverse of OBP is out percentage, you want the highest OBPs toward the top of the lineup. Benintendi may not put up a .450+ SLG in his first full season, but I do expect an OBP over .350 and wouldn't be surprised by one close to .375. "Isn't Mookie Betts" is an unfair standard.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2017 12:49:27 GMT -5
I think you underappreciate how much very good catcher defense is worth. They will be fine. They don't need Carlton Fisk. I think you forget that it was a black hole last year until Leon came from no where. Vasquez was bad like real bad. His defense can be as good as you want, if his bat is the same as it was it's not a good situation. If you don't think it's something to watch or be concerned about you're probably still singing the Henry Owens is at worst a quality 5th starter song. It's dangerous to make assumptions about young players with these holes in their games. By the way raising a concern or question isn't the same as saying they shouldn't have these guys in this position or that you think they will fail. The problem with Vazquez last year was that his defense slipped and his arm wasn't back. I really don't care if catchers hit. I care that they can play defense and if either Leon or Vazquez can OPS over .600, I'll be perfectly fine with that. The floor for starting catcher is still a very good catcher because of their defense as long as Vazquez bounces back and Leon doesn't slip. I view catcher defense as almost important as pitching. And it's not like teams are looking for better hitting pitchers in the NL.
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