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Realistic outcomes for the 2017 season
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 17, 2017 4:23:20 GMT -5
I think Pedrioa has a long career ahead of him. I'm pretty sure he'll last until the remainder of his contract. Has he been fully healthy the past 3 years? No. Has he really suffered anything really career threatening to this point either? Not really. It's up to Pedroia and the Sox to keep him healthy with more days off and what not. It's achievable. Players go as hard as Pedrioa does and they have lasted late in their careers. For example, Adrian Beltre. Pedrioa is still only 33/34, so he should be good for a few more healthy years without too much decline in play either. I know no one would notice he's declining with his swing. Maybe the range at second will get a little worse, but he'll still have plenty of range there to get the job done for a few more years. As far as position players, Benintendi is going to be a part of that solid group of Pedroia, Betts, and Xander. He's that solid and can flat out play. I have no idea what Moreland will bring. If he can't perform, then the Sox have Sam Travis waiting around in AAA or they can make a trade at first base mid season. Pablo and Hanley should be solid offensively at least, who knows about Pablo defensively. Swihart could also be some sort of upgrade offensively if Vasquez and Leon can't hit at all. The Sox have options and depth position wise, which is exactly what a team wants and needs in order to go far into the season. Important depth is just as much of a need in a organization than anything else to make it through a season. The Sox are in a great position this year. He's actually had surgery nearly every year of his career, mostly off-season. I predicted several years ago that he's likely to be more injury prone because he plays all out diving for balls when the team is up ten in the ninth and he was on the wrong side of 30. By 34 YO decline is normal no way around it, you must have grown up in the steroid era to believe otherwise. I also said he'd likely have 1 more good year in him and I fear we just saw it. I wanted to trade him a few years ago for Kole Calhoun and relief pitching. Kole is a similar hitter to Pedroia plays very good D in right and we'd have had Betts at second. But he was "healthy" last year and that gives me hope. Edit: He actually had surgery on his knee this offseason a few days after the season ended. I don't share your pessimistic view of Pedrioa. The Angels also would never do the trade YOU wanted to do. I just saw Adrian Beltre literally get better into his mid 30's and he plays just like Pedrioa. I don't see how that factors into injury risk. I'm no more worried of Mookie getting injured than I am with Pedrioa than I am with anyone else with this roster. Injuries are such a random variance, there's no way of knowing or trying to predict it. The Sox will be more careful of Pedrioa and will give him DH time and plenty of days off. I know they will monitor him very closely going forward. Mookie also had knee surgery too but I don't see you bringing that up either. This has nothing to do with steriods. I already mentioned that I think he would take a decline defensively with a little less range in the future but I always think his bat will play in Fenway. Like Jimed said, it wouldn't be a big surprise that he would be worth 4-5 WAR the next couple of years of the contract then 2-3 WAR the rest of the way. I bet he ends up being worth at least 75% of the contract when it comes to dollars per WAR. I could care less about that if he wins a championship the next 2-3 years and is a big part of it. It's no coincidence that every time that Pedrioa is playing well in a season, that the Sox make the playoffs that year (2007-2009), (2013), (2016). If I'm a betting man, I'm betting on Pedrioa and the Sox are too. So really that's all that matters to me. Pedrioa is a rock.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2017 9:04:16 GMT -5
He's actually had surgery nearly every year of his career, mostly off-season. I predicted several years ago that he's likely to be more injury prone because he plays all out diving for balls when the team is up ten in the ninth and he was on the wrong side of 30. By 34 YO decline is normal no way around it, you must have grown up in the steroid era to believe otherwise. I also said he'd likely have 1 more good year in him and I fear we just saw it. I wanted to trade him a few years ago for Kole Calhoun and relief pitching. Kole is a similar hitter to Pedroia plays very good D in right and we'd have had Betts at second. But he was "healthy" last year and that gives me hope. Edit: He actually had surgery on his knee this offseason a few days after the season ended. I don't share your pessimistic view of Pedrioa. The Angels also would never do the trade YOU wanted to do. I just saw Adrian Beltre literally get better into his mid 30's and he plays just like Pedrioa. I don't see how that factors into injury risk. I'm no more worried of Mookie getting injured than I am with Pedrioa than I am with anyone else with this roster. Injuries are such a random variance, there's no way of knowing or trying to predict it. The Sox will be more careful of Pedrioa and will give him DH time and plenty of days off. I know they will monitor him very closely going forward. Mookie also had knee surgery too but I don't see you bringing that up either. This has nothing to do with steriods. I already mentioned that I think he would take a decline defensively with a little less range in the future but I always think his bat will play in Fenway. Like Jimed said, it wouldn't be a big surprise that he would be worth 4-5 WAR the next couple of years of the contract then 2-3 WAR the rest of the way. I bet he ends up being worth at least 75% of the contract when it comes to dollars per WAR. I could care less about that if he wins a championship the next 2-3 years and is a big part of it. It's no coincidence that every time that Pedrioa is playing well in a season, that the Sox make the playoffs that year (2007-2009), (2013), (2016). If I'm a betting man, I'm betting on Pedrioa and the Sox are too. So really that's all that matters to me. Pedrioa is a rock. Well its obvious you have your blinders on. For one your Beltre comparison has no merit other than you want it to. Beltre "improved" because he left the worst stadium for him as a hitter, Seattle. I actually mentioned years before the Sox acquired him that they should trade for him how he'd be a perfect fit at Fenway and successfully argued against about 30 people over on SoSH about that. Pedrioa has had surgery nearly every year (mostly off-season) he's played and his style of play, balls out, and body size does not make that a good recipe from staying away from more injuries ESPECIALLY as he'll turn 34 during this season. You can make any point you want but you cannot refute that. I have a Pedroia signed Helmet I won at a silent auction so it's not like I'm not a fan just a realist, try that on for size.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2017 11:11:54 GMT -5
Quoting one player who got better in his 30's is not a sign that another, random, dissimilar player will do so. Players like Dwight Evans and (arguably) Adrian Beltre are not arguments that Dustin Pedroia might get better any more than they're an argument that any random player will do better. Pedroia should be expected to have a normal decline phase. If he doesn't, that's awesome, but it's not because he's similar to any other player. Certainly not because he's similar to Adrian Beltre, who is about twice Pedroia's size.
BUT, I'm also not buying the other extreme that his all-out play is leading to a steep decline. He just hit .318/.376/.449 while playing 154 games in his age 32 season. He's played in over 130 games in all but two seasons of his career. I feel like we've been debating Pedroia's durability/longetivity for as long as he's been around, and he's now 33 and still good.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 17, 2017 12:13:12 GMT -5
I think the Bullpen is an issue all year. I think Thornburg is a bust due to injury & he doesn't make it through June. I think Rutledge is returned to Colorado. I think Swihart & Travis are both on the team by the all star break. I think Moreland is a bust.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 17, 2017 12:21:22 GMT -5
I think the Bullpen is an issue all year. I think Thornburg is a bust due to injury & he doesn't make it through June. I think Rutledge is returned to Colorado. I think Swihart & Travis are both on the team by the all star break. I think Moreland is a bust. I think you are trolling for fun. I think you may be clinically depressed. I think you need to pour yourself a full glass of something
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Post by p23w on Jan 17, 2017 12:24:09 GMT -5
I think the Bullpen is an issue all year. Tend to agree. For me the real question will be the bullpen effectiveness in October. I think Thornburg is a bust due to injury & he doesn't make it through June. Boy do I hope you are wrong. I think Rutledge is returned to Colorado. I think Swihart & Travis are both on the team by the all star break. Swihart, yes. Travis, mebbe. I think Moreland is a bust. Who knows. Could be he morphs into another Texas 1B cast off, Chris Davis.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2017 14:26:28 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland is seven months older than Chris Davis.
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Post by Coreno on Jan 17, 2017 14:34:31 GMT -5
I think the Bullpen is an issue all year. Tend to agree. For me the real question will be the bullpen effectiveness in October. I think Thornburg is a bust due to injury & he doesn't make it through June. Boy do I hope you are wrong. I think Rutledge is returned to Colorado. I think Swihart & Travis are both on the team by the all star break. Swihart, yes. Travis, mebbe. I think Moreland is a bust. Who knows. Could be he morphs into another Texas 1B cast off, Chris Davis. Wow, I don't agree with dmaineah's pessimism, but that's kind of crazy optimism in response. Just to be clear, you're comparing Chris Davis, who was 25 when he went to the O's, and had a .549 SLG as a 22 year old... .. to Mitch Moreland, who will be 32 by the end of the season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 17, 2017 15:05:24 GMT -5
I don't share your pessimistic view of Pedrioa. The Angels also would never do the trade YOU wanted to do. I just saw Adrian Beltre literally get better into his mid 30's and he plays just like Pedrioa. I don't see how that factors into injury risk. I'm no more worried of Mookie getting injured than I am with Pedrioa than I am with anyone else with this roster. Injuries are such a random variance, there's no way of knowing or trying to predict it. The Sox will be more careful of Pedrioa and will give him DH time and plenty of days off. I know they will monitor him very closely going forward. Mookie also had knee surgery too but I don't see you bringing that up either. This has nothing to do with steriods. I already mentioned that I think he would take a decline defensively with a little less range in the future but I always think his bat will play in Fenway. Like Jimed said, it wouldn't be a big surprise that he would be worth 4-5 WAR the next couple of years of the contract then 2-3 WAR the rest of the way. I bet he ends up being worth at least 75% of the contract when it comes to dollars per WAR. I could care less about that if he wins a championship the next 2-3 years and is a big part of it. It's no coincidence that every time that Pedrioa is playing well in a season, that the Sox make the playoffs that year (2007-2009), (2013), (2016). If I'm a betting man, I'm betting on Pedrioa and the Sox are too. So really that's all that matters to me. Pedrioa is a rock. Well its obvious you have your blinders on. For one your Beltre comparison has no merit other than you want it to. Beltre "improved" because he left the worst stadium for him as a hitter, Seattle. I actually mentioned years before the Sox acquired him that they should trade for him how he'd be a perfect fit at Fenway and successfully argued against about 30 people over on SoSH about that. Pedrioa has had surgery nearly every year (mostly off-season) he's played and his style of play, balls out, and body size does not make that a good recipe from staying away from more injuries ESPECIALLY as he'll turn 34 during this season. You can make any point you want but you cannot refute that. I have a Pedroia signed Helmet I won at a silent auction so it's not like I'm not a fan just a realist, try that on for size. No I named a good example and you couldn't get past it. I wonder why Nelson Cruz hasn't struggled at Safeco then if it's such a terrible place to hit? Pedrioa hasn't had any career threatening issues no matter how you slice it. You act like the the guy is David Wright. It's a completely way off take imo.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 17, 2017 15:26:48 GMT -5
I think the Bullpen is an issue all year. I think Thornburg is a bust due to injury & he doesn't make it through June. I think Rutledge is returned to Colorado. I think Swihart & Travis are both on the team by the all star break. I think Moreland is a bust. Well at least you don't think the team bus will drive off a cliff. There's the optimist in me.
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Post by bookiemetts on Jan 17, 2017 15:52:24 GMT -5
I think the Bullpen is an issue all year. I think Thornburg is a bust due to injury & he doesn't make it through June. I think Rutledge is returned to Colorado. I think Swihart & Travis are both on the team by the all star break. I think Moreland is a bust. Honestly all of these things could happen and they could still win the division. In other news, Benintendi looks pretty big now. Anyone else think 20 HRs is a realistic possibility out of him?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 17, 2017 20:40:18 GMT -5
Quoting one player who got better in his 30's is not a sign that another, random, dissimilar player will do so. Players like Dwight Evans and (arguably) Adrian Beltre are not arguments that Dustin Pedroia might get better any more than they're an argument that any random player will do better. Pedroia should be expected to have a normal decline phase. If he doesn't, that's awesome, but it's not because he's similar to any other player. Certainly not because he's similar to Adrian Beltre, who is about twice Pedroia's size. BUT, I'm also not buying the other extreme that his all-out play is leading to a steep decline. He just hit .318/.376/.449 while playing 154 games in his age 32 season. He's played in over 130 games in all but two seasons of his career. I feel like we've been debating Pedroia's durability/longetivity for as long as he's been around, and he's now 33 and still good. Well I do think that Pedrioa will decline defensively, that should be expected but I can't expect a huge drop off offensively when he plays half of his games at Fenway, at least not for a long while (2020). His bat speed is there like in his mid 20's. I just think he will be a good if not great player for the majority of this contract. Edit-I think he won't be as good of a baserunner and be as much of a stolen base threat moving forward either.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2017 23:52:00 GMT -5
Quoting one player who got better in his 30's is not a sign that another, random, dissimilar player will do so. Players like Dwight Evans and (arguably) Adrian Beltre are not arguments that Dustin Pedroia might get better any more than they're an argument that any random player will do better. Pedroia should be expected to have a normal decline phase. If he doesn't, that's awesome, but it's not because he's similar to any other player. Certainly not because he's similar to Adrian Beltre, who is about twice Pedroia's size. BUT, I'm also not buying the other extreme that his all-out play is leading to a steep decline. He just hit .318/.376/.449 while playing 154 games in his age 32 season. He's played in over 130 games in all but two seasons of his career. I feel like we've been debating Pedroia's durability/longetivity for as long as he's been around, and he's now 33 and still good. Well I do think that Pedrioa will decline defensively, that should be expected but I can't expect a huge drop off offensively when he plays half of his games at Fenway, at least not for a long while (2020). His bat speed is there like in his mid 20's. I just think he will be a good if not great player for the majority of this contract. Edit-I think he won't be as good of a baserunner and be as much of a stolen base threat moving forward either. I think you're underestimating the possibility of nagging type injuries combined with natural decline. At some point you could be looking at a very ordinary hitter. I hope I'm wrong, Pedroia bucks the norm and stays forever young. The season he had in 2016 was incredible and when he's been playing injured he's always at worst still been an above average player. I don't think you can always count on that to continue. At this point the depth in the minor leagues is quite thin as I think Josh Tobias is the best 2b prospect the Sox have and he projects to be fringy.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 18, 2017 0:14:23 GMT -5
I didn't mean to imply that Pedroia was in decline. What I was trying to say was that I feel like he's a good candidate to start declining, because of his age, all-out intense play, and the fact that he's been riddled with many minor injuries for the last few years. I was only speaking for myself when I said that it would have been nice to have kept Moncada, and maybe in 2018 the Sox would have had an incredibly talented infield, to go with the incredibly talented outfield I think they'll have. To me, it seems that Dombrowski was trying create a Cinderella story with Ortiz's swan song, while also trying to put his imprint on the team in his first full season at the helm. I keep reading from others how Bucholz ruined it all. Bucholz was steadily inconsistant throughout his career with the Sox. I, personally feel like it simply wasn't the right time to go all in by getting Pomeranz. Now we've committed, and lost Espinosa, Kopech, and Moncada as a result of going for it all in Ortiz's last season.
I'm saying all this in this thread, because I think a possible outcome for this season will be to have JBJ have a so-so year, along with one of the other youngsters we're all counting on for big things this year. Is Ramirez going to continue to be a big slugger now, or will he regress into a good DH, but not great. Porcello and Price would level out to a performance level that would be more indicative of who they really are at this point of their careers, and maybe Sale would have been unnecessary.
The reason I mentioned Pedroia is because I feel like it would be perhaps beneficial in the long run to start reducing his workload. Therefore I thought that would have made a lot of sense while he mentoring Moncada in the second half of the season. I think Pedey could have been a great mentor for Yoan, as Pedey has all the intangibles that make an average second baseman, physically, into an All Star second baseman. So him mentoring a youngster with incredible physical tools would have been interesting. Moncada, I'm sure, could have been kind of like a Zobrist, while he waited on his turn to take the place of Pedroia. Who knows!!
A possible 2017 outcome could have been a year that the young Sox grew out of the shadow of Ortiz, and find themselves as far as how they'll perform at a steady rate through the rest of their careers. The Sox would still have Espinosa and Kopech, to go along with Groome. Maybe they wouldn't have needed Sale for '18, and the next ten years. If they continued to improve, the Sox could have been incredibly positioned for a young team even the Cubs would have been in awe of. Pomeranz is completely superfluous right now, in my opinion.
Now that Dombrowski has gone for it all, I could totally see future high-leveraged trades happening, as a possible outcome for '17, as I'm not totally convinced about a lot of the hitting talent on the Sox. Not until they've shown us another year of what to expect from them. Of course, I would absolutely not be surprised if they did win more than 100, and swept the Cubs in the W.S! No one knows for certain what to expect, of course.
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Post by telluricrook on Jan 18, 2017 0:27:57 GMT -5
The Sox essentially lost their best hitter this offseason, and gained a new best pitcher. A wash maybe? Obviously this team is pitching loaded. Without Ortiz in the lineup it's going to be quite interesting to see how the lineup performs, especially with Betts and Ramirez. Now that the Sox (Dombrowski) have set themselves up to go for it right now, what's gonna happen if Bradley really regresses, Benintendi is decent, and Ramirez regresses significantly from last year, without Ortiz in the lineup. Does that mean that Devers, and maybe Groome is gone by midseason after we go for a big bat, that's consistent, year-in, year-out? Sale For Ortiz is not an even trade. The loss of Ortiz will impact this team in many ways! Him being gone will impact probably every bat in the order alot more than you people think.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 18, 2017 1:10:11 GMT -5
The Sox essentially lost their best hitter this offseason, and gained a new best pitcher. A wash maybe? Obviously this team is pitching loaded. Without Ortiz in the lineup it's going to be quite interesting to see how the lineup performs, especially with Betts and Ramirez. Now that the Sox (Dombrowski) have set themselves up to go for it right now, what's gonna happen if Bradley really regresses, Benintendi is decent, and Ramirez regresses significantly from last year, without Ortiz in the lineup. Does that mean that Devers, and maybe Groome is gone by midseason after we go for a big bat, that's consistent, year-in, year-out? Sale For Ortiz is not an even trade. The loss of Ortiz will impact this team in many ways! Him being gone will impact probably every bat in the order alot more than you people think. Yeah, Sale shouldn't have been needed, as much as a replacement bat for Ortiz is needed for this young team. Pomeranz was supposed to be that young, inexpensive, cost - controlled, All - Star pitcher that Dombrowski justified trading Espinoza for. Obviously Pomeranz is nowhere near the proven talent Sale is. However, the Sox already have two TOR starters. It shouldn't have been necessary to make a trade for Sale, if Price performed to what we all expected, and Pomeranz lived up to that young, All-Star sort of talent that was his billing when he came over. It should have been ludicrous to have needed another front-line starting pitcher, between All-Star laden starting rotation the Sox already had, between Price, Porcello, Wright, and Pomeranz, along with Eduardo. Dombrowski trading for Sale, and giving so much of the future for the Sox up, was a clear sign that he realized he made a mistake with Pomeranz, and now he's trying to hedge on the huge commitments he gave up for Price and Pomeranz, by trading for Sale, imo. Hopefully it all pays off real quick, so that there's no need to keep trying to mitigate the damage done in trying to go for it all now, instead of waiting a year or two.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 18, 2017 4:12:51 GMT -5
Well I do think that Pedrioa will decline defensively, that should be expected but I can't expect a huge drop off offensively when he plays half of his games at Fenway, at least not for a long while (2020). His bat speed is there like in his mid 20's. I just think he will be a good if not great player for the majority of this contract. Edit-I think he won't be as good of a baserunner and be as much of a stolen base threat moving forward either. I think you're underestimating the possibility of nagging type injuries combined with natural decline. At some point you could be looking at a very ordinary hitter. I hope I'm wrong, Pedroia bucks the norm and stays forever young. The season he had in 2016 was incredible and when he's been playing injured he's always at worst still been an above average player. I don't think you can always count on that to continue. At this point the depth in the minor leagues is quite thin as I think Josh Tobias is the best 2b prospect the Sox have and he projects to be fringy. I'd take Hernandez over Tobias. If you are talking in season replacements, no way are we thin at 2B. Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Marrero. Not to mention Betts if there was a long term need. ADD: By the way, if you read the write-ups on the Statcast all defensive team, Pedroia was the majors top 2B (Betts top RF) but it wasn't his range or arm strength that they wrote about. He's insanely faster than everyone else on his transfer speed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 18, 2017 5:25:37 GMT -5
Well I do think that Pedrioa will decline defensively, that should be expected but I can't expect a huge drop off offensively when he plays half of his games at Fenway, at least not for a long while (2020). His bat speed is there like in his mid 20's. I just think he will be a good if not great player for the majority of this contract. Edit-I think he won't be as good of a baserunner and be as much of a stolen base threat moving forward either. I think you're underestimating the possibility of nagging type injuries combined with natural decline. At some point you could be looking at a very ordinary hitter. I hope I'm wrong, Pedroia bucks the norm and stays forever young. The season he had in 2016 was incredible and when he's been playing injured he's always at worst still been an above average player. I don't think you can always count on that to continue. At this point the depth in the minor leagues is quite thin as I think Josh Tobias is the best 2b prospect the Sox have and he projects to be fringy. He could hit the DL a couple of times the next few years, no doubt but I can't see him becoming a average hitter. He's been a above average hitter (especially when compared to the rest of his position at second base) for the entirety of his career mostly. I mean the only "average" year I could even make a case for is 2014 and he didn't even play that whole year (only played 135 games and was probably playing hurt all year). He has posted a OPS of .780 or better in all but two years in his career. He's hit a OPS of .797 or better in 8 seasons of his career. That's incredible for a second baseman. Now I can see him becoming a average "player" later on in his career (especially with his range and speed declining), but I always see Pedrioa's bat playing well. That's just the way I see it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2017 10:51:18 GMT -5
I think you're underestimating the possibility of nagging type injuries combined with natural decline. At some point you could be looking at a very ordinary hitter. I hope I'm wrong, Pedroia bucks the norm and stays forever young. The season he had in 2016 was incredible and when he's been playing injured he's always at worst still been an above average player. I don't think you can always count on that to continue. At this point the depth in the minor leagues is quite thin as I think Josh Tobias is the best 2b prospect the Sox have and he projects to be fringy. I'd take Hernandez over Tobias. If you are talking in season replacements, no way are we thin at 2B. Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Marrero. Not to mention Betts if there was a long term need. ADD: By the way, if you read the write-ups on the Statcast all defensive team, Pedroia was the majors top 2B (Betts top RF) but it wasn't his range or arm strength that they wrote about. He's insanely faster than everyone else on his transfer speed. Yeah, "best 2B prospect" is like saying "best LF prospect" in some ways - there's a decent chance your guy there is moving from short (or CF, as it were). Consider that Pedroia himself wasn't a full-time 2B until his ROY season in 2007, and that most of the time he got at 2B in the minors was because he was sharing the Portland infield with Hanley (which is kind of funny to think about now, actually). PBSF also makes a good point that there's definitely high minors depth in case of injury. Holt's best position is second, and whichever of Rutledge or Hernandez is on the roster provides fine depth. That said, it is a fair point that there's a dearth of middle infield prospects in the system, but that's by design - there's no doubt the fact that the Sox are set at those positions made it easier for Dombrowski to move Moncada, Guerra, etc.
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brisox
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Post by brisox on Jan 18, 2017 12:15:08 GMT -5
This is fun but I am an optimist so here is my 10 reasons to be excited about 2017 1) 1B Defense has been improved drastically seems like a minor thing but lots of outs get made there. 2) Starting pitching now has 3 CY young finalists who almost assure you 200 innings and have amongst the highest average innings per start in Baseball , our 4 and 5 starters are ER and DP both who show tremendous promise, either are a 3 starter on most other teams and our 6 starter is a knuckler with spurts of Dominance 3) Our OF is now possibly the best defensive OF in the majors that will likely generate 60-70HRs , teams just don't have that there are lots of great gloves out there who are league average hitters to have 3 who are as good as they are offensively is a unicorn. oh and they are all in their early 20's!! 4) Catcher's are bad offensively because its a defense first position . If they can make our pitching better with Vazquez's otherworldly pitch framing or Leon's incredibly quick arm and smart game calling who cares if they have a .600OPS ? 5) We have the best hitting SS in the AL who is slightly above average defensively and he is a baby. SS is also a defense first position so all his offense is a bonus. 6) We have amongst the best closer in the game who hits 98 with ease. He had a bad first year . Welcome to Boston I can't remember the last player who didn't have a bad first year here after being acquired. The rest of the pen is solid filled with quality arms who hopefully will only need to give us 1-3 innings a game. (see average innings per start of the big 3) 7) Pablo was a great player . I don't think it evaporated and seeing how hard he has worked on his strength, endurance and lateral movement I think we have a good shot of seeing a quality player in 2017 and beyond . Devers is 2 years away max if not. 8) Hanley is more than just a DH he is the player who creates Chemistry, he is the Millar of 2017 he keeps it light and makes everyone relax, and will mash again , because he wants more than anything to be loved like Papi was loved. I predict 40 from him in 2017 . (save this post ;-) ) 9) Pedroia will get a C this year and will earn it by being the one that they all listen to and watch , there are a small group of players who work as hard and want to win as badly as Pedey. The young guys at his team will know who is in charge day 1! 10) by staying under the CBT we have about 5-10M, give or take to play with mid season. look at the 2018 FA class (Molina, Arietta, McCutcheon, Cueto, Bumgardner) lots of potential upgrades if those teams think they cant resign or don't want to . It will be smorgasboard mid season and we will have flexibility to do stuff and , no penalty in 2017 restarts the clock and we can go crazy next offseason. Also. International penalties are done so we will be aggressive and we have some of the best Intl Scouting in the league !!
Sure there are bummers with the farm depleted, and their are risks in that injuries can come at any time, but for the most part I feel good.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 18, 2017 14:12:40 GMT -5
This is fun but I am an optimist so here is my 10 reasons to be excited about 2017 1) 1B Defense has been improved drastically seems like a minor thing but lots of outs get made there. 2) Starting pitching now has 3 CY young finalists who almost assure you 200 innings and have amongst the highest average innings per start in Baseball , our 4 and 5 starters are ER and DP both who show tremendous promise, either are a 3 starter on most other teams and our 6 starter is a knuckler with spurts of Dominance 3) Our OF is now possibly the best defensive OF in the majors that will likely generate 60-70HRs , teams just don't have that there are lots of great gloves out there who are league average hitters to have 3 who are as good as they are offensively is a unicorn. oh and they are all in their early 20's!! 4) Catcher's are bad offensively because its a defense first position . If they can make our pitching better with Vazquez's otherworldly pitch framing or Leon's incredibly quick arm and smart game calling who cares if they have a .600OPS ? 5) We have the best hitting SS in the AL who is slightly above average defensively and he is a baby. SS is also a defense first position so all his offense is a bonus. 6) We have amongst the best closer in the game who hits 98 with ease. He had a bad first year . Welcome to Boston I can't remember the last player who didn't have a bad first year here after being acquired. The rest of the pen is solid filled with quality arms who hopefully will only need to give us 1-3 innings a game. (see average innings per start of the big 3) 7) Pablo was a great player . I don't think it evaporated and seeing how hard he has worked on his strength, endurance and lateral movement I think we have a good shot of seeing a quality player in 2017 and beyond . Devers is 2 years away max if not. 8) Hanley is more than just a DH he is the player who creates Chemistry, he is the Millar of 2017 he keeps it light and makes everyone relax, and will mash again , because he wants more than anything to be loved like Papi was loved. I predict 40 from him in 2017 . (save this post ;-) ) 9) Pedroia will get a C this year and will earn it by being the one that they all listen to and watch , there are a small group of players who work as hard and want to win as badly as Pedey. The young guys at his team will know who is in charge day 1! 10) by staying under the CBT we have about 5-10M, give or take to play with mid season. look at the 2018 FA class (Molina, Arietta, McCutcheon, Cueto, Bumgardner) lots of potential upgrades if those teams think they cant resign or don't want to . It will be smorgasboard mid season and we will have flexibility to do stuff and , no penalty in 2017 restarts the clock and we can go crazy next offseason. Also. International penalties are done so we will be aggressive and we have some of the best Intl Scouting in the league !! Sure there are bummers with the farm depleted, and their are risks in that injuries can come at any time, but for the most part I feel good. I came to this thread specifically to state I am an optimist also and had the intent of posting something over the top positive. Well thank you very much for stealing my thunder I couldn't have said it any better and probably wouldn't have come close. There are just so many reasons to be excited about this coming season. One thing you said though that puzzles me is about Hanley. Not the 40 homers but as the great clubhouse guy that keeps everyone loose. Does he really have that type of reputation? I am sure he would love to be the next Papi but is that feasible. I was also going to state he might be the biggest wildcard. With the loss of Papi a big bat in the middle of the order is a must.
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Post by thursty on Jan 18, 2017 15:49:13 GMT -5
A few corrections:
Excluding Machado, Correa is the best offensive SS in the AL (and even Miller had a better wRC+ in 2016) than 'our' SS, who is a below-average defender at SS (even Dombrowski publicly acknowledged that)
Kimbrel is not among the best closers (certainly wasn't in past 2 years, last year he was the worst closer in his own division); and by your logic of first-year Boston jitters, it follows that we should expect Sale to struggle.
Sandoval *was* a 'great' player -- just it was in 2011; hasn't reached 3 fWAR since - depending upon him is akin to the logic that said Grady Sizemore *was* a great player, therefore . . . oops.
Optimism is fine and all that, but it doesn't win ballgames.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 18, 2017 15:54:58 GMT -5
A few corrections: Excluding Machado, Correa is the best offensive SS in the AL (and even Miller had a better wRC+ in 2016) than 'our' SS, who is a below-average defender at SS (even Dombrowski publicly acknowledged that) Kimbrel is not among the best closers (certainly wasn't in past 2 years, last year he was the worst closer in his own division); and by your logic of first-year Boston jitters, it follows that we should expect Sale to struggle. Sandoval *was* a 'great' player -- just it was in 2011; hasn't reached 3 fWAR since - depending upon him is akin to the logic that said Grady Sizemore *was* a great player, therefore . . . oops. Optimism is fine and all that, but it doesn't win ballgames. Optimism wins as many games as pessimism loses.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2017 20:43:06 GMT -5
I think you're underestimating the possibility of nagging type injuries combined with natural decline. At some point you could be looking at a very ordinary hitter. I hope I'm wrong, Pedroia bucks the norm and stays forever young. The season he had in 2016 was incredible and when he's been playing injured he's always at worst still been an above average player. I don't think you can always count on that to continue. At this point the depth in the minor leagues is quite thin as I think Josh Tobias is the best 2b prospect the Sox have and he projects to be fringy. I'd take Hernandez over Tobias.If you are talking in season replacements, no way are we thin at 2B. Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Marrero. Not to mention Betts if there was a long term need. ADD: By the way, if you read the write-ups on the Statcast all defensive team, Pedroia was the majors top 2B (Betts top RF) but it wasn't his range or arm strength that they wrote about. He's insanely faster than everyone else on his transfer speed. Now that you mention it, I concur. I'd prefer Hernandez over Tobias as well. I was thinking further down the pipeline, but yeah.
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brisox
Rookie
SoxProspects Veteran
Posts: 86
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Post by brisox on Jan 19, 2017 6:33:56 GMT -5
This is fun but I am an optimist so here is my 10 reasons to be excited about 2017 1) 1B Defense has been improved drastically seems like a minor thing but lots of outs get made there. 2) Starting pitching now has 3 CY young finalists who almost assure you 200 innings and have amongst the highest average innings per start in Baseball , our 4 and 5 starters are ER and DP both who show tremendous promise, either are a 3 starter on most other teams and our 6 starter is a knuckler with spurts of Dominance 3) Our OF is now possibly the best defensive OF in the majors that will likely generate 60-70HRs , teams just don't have that there are lots of great gloves out there who are league average hitters to have 3 who are as good as they are offensively is a unicorn. oh and they are all in their early 20's!! 4) Catcher's are bad offensively because its a defense first position . If they can make our pitching better with Vazquez's otherworldly pitch framing or Leon's incredibly quick arm and smart game calling who cares if they have a .600OPS ? 5) We have the best hitting SS in the AL who is slightly above average defensively and he is a baby. SS is also a defense first position so all his offense is a bonus. 6) We have amongst the best closer in the game who hits 98 with ease. He had a bad first year . Welcome to Boston I can't remember the last player who didn't have a bad first year here after being acquired. The rest of the pen is solid filled with quality arms who hopefully will only need to give us 1-3 innings a game. (see average innings per start of the big 3) 7) Pablo was a great player . I don't think it evaporated and seeing how hard he has worked on his strength, endurance and lateral movement I think we have a good shot of seeing a quality player in 2017 and beyond . Devers is 2 years away max if not. 8) Hanley is more than just a DH he is the player who creates Chemistry, he is the Millar of 2017 he keeps it light and makes everyone relax, and will mash again , because he wants more than anything to be loved like Papi was loved. I predict 40 from him in 2017 . (save this post ;-) ) 9) Pedroia will get a C this year and will earn it by being the one that they all listen to and watch , there are a small group of players who work as hard and want to win as badly as Pedey. The young guys at his team will know who is in charge day 1! 10) by staying under the CBT we have about 5-10M, give or take to play with mid season. look at the 2018 FA class (Molina, Arietta, McCutcheon, Cueto, Bumgardner) lots of potential upgrades if those teams think they cant resign or don't want to . It will be smorgasboard mid season and we will have flexibility to do stuff and , no penalty in 2017 restarts the clock and we can go crazy next offseason. Also. International penalties are done so we will be aggressive and we have some of the best Intl Scouting in the league !! Sure there are bummers with the farm depleted, and their are risks in that injuries can come at any time, but for the most part I feel good. I came to this thread specifically to state I am an optimist also and had the intent of posting something over the top positive. Well thank you very much for stealing my thunder I couldn't have said it any better and probably wouldn't have come close. There are just so many reasons to be excited about this coming season. One thing you said though that puzzles me is about Hanley. Not the 40 homers but as the great clubhouse guy that keeps everyone loose. Does he really have that type of reputation? I am sure he would love to be the next Papi but is that feasible. I was also going to state he might be the biggest wildcard. With the loss of Papi a big bat in the middle of the order is a must. Hanley is a goofball in the clubhouse and the dugout. always the first guy out to celebrate, always with a smile and a head rub. He had a great year last year and will add to the chemistry , this is a group of guys who like to play together as evidenced by the outfield win dance repeat stuff. I think Pablo coming back with a good attitude will make this team pop and could be special. Moreland and Young are both great team guys and respected veterans.I personally think having the mix of those guys on an essentially very young team is important. The only Chemistry concerns I have are with the rotation, but Willis is no stranger to working with CY pitchers so I hope he can keep them lose while keeping the competition fierce.
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