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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2017 1:55:38 GMT -5
Velocity and movement are not unrelated. Correct: Sale's fastball movement was also down last year. I also think Pomeranz arm is hanging by a thread is a gross overstatement given any reports we've seen anyplace. Yeah he's getting all those stem cells injected for fun.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 24, 2017 2:39:21 GMT -5
I'm in agreement. There's got to be an issue for this treatment to come into play. I'm assuming it's a tear and not shredding, but my only evidence for that is the team's reaction when they learned about it.
If it is the former, this will be one more test of efficacy to add to the growing pile of data. And yes, The "Colon Cohort" should be the designated name for the members.
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Post by p23w on Jan 24, 2017 8:03:02 GMT -5
Velocity and movement are not unrelated. Correct: Sale's fastball movement was also down last year. I also think Pomeranz arm is hanging by a thread is a gross overstatement given any reports we've seen anyplace. Yeah he's getting all those stem cells injected for fun. Of your three examples of bad trades by DD I am least inclined to view your negative prognosis of Sale. I believe he will be a valuable asset in 2017, despite your statistical concerns. If he had a three years running decline in velocity, location, etc. You might have a better argument. If Sale throws 200 quality innings, regardless of his peripheral numbers, than he will have brought more to the table than Moncada or Kopech would have in 2017. The bullpen OTOH is a dicy situation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2017 11:12:57 GMT -5
I'm not saying Sale isn't going to be excellent next year; chances are he will be. I'm just saying, the Red Sox have invested massive resources into a collection of players who all have an elevated risk of collapse.
By the way this team couldn't possibly sustain the risk of a long-term contract to Jon Lester. But they can trade half the farm system for a bunch of creaky UCLs. No risk there, I guess.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 24, 2017 13:26:47 GMT -5
By the way this team couldn't possibly sustain the risk of a long-term contract to Jon Lester. But they can trade half the farm system for a bunch of creaky UCLs. No risk there, I guess. But Lester was traded and subsequently not signed by the previous GM and the previous administration.
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Post by manfred on Jan 24, 2017 15:40:35 GMT -5
Wow. People are really down on, well, everyone. Let's not treat Pomeranz as injured until he is. If his elbow holds up -- and we might as well say that about any pitcher -- then we can see how he does. I blew my elbow out freshman year of college and had TJ surgery after being a "horse" in high school. Went from reliable innings guy to see-you-in-18-months guy. It's the nature of pitching. Is he higher risk? Sounds like that's possible, but... they say he is healthy now.
As for the shift to Sale and Kimbrel, well, wow again. So Sox get a dominant closer (yes, he was not elite last season) and one of the top starters in baseball (who WAS elite last season), and these are demerits? Let's see how they do this year, see how those prospects turn out in the next 5 years, and we can reconvene in 2021.
I mean this with no disrespect, but the news of Andy Marte did have me thinking back on former tippy-top prospects who never worked out. Trading an elite prospect for Coco Crisp was likely an issue at the time -- in retrospect, doesn't seem like such a bad idea.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2017 19:54:02 GMT -5
By the way this team couldn't possibly sustain the risk of a long-term contract to Jon Lester. But they can trade half the farm system for a bunch of creaky UCLs. No risk there, I guess. But Lester was traded and subsequently not signed by the previous GM and the previous administration. The buck stops at the owner.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 25, 2017 2:01:13 GMT -5
That depends on the ownership style. Bob Kraft gave Belichick all the authority, staying out of the decision making completely. Then you have the Jerry Jones types - including Steinbrenner - who insist on inserting themselves in everything.
No idea about Henry. I can only go by what I've seen. He does seem willing to give the FO a lot of rope, but that's from the outside looking in.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 25, 2017 6:11:24 GMT -5
But Lester was traded and subsequently not signed by the previous GM and the previous administration. The buck stops at the owner. And Cherington got fired not long after he didn't re-sign Lester. DD signed Price instead, who doesn't fit into your conspiracy of only acquiring risky arms. The reasoning that you're complaining about is exactly why Cherington didn't want to risk long expensive contracts on aging pitchers.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 25, 2017 7:55:52 GMT -5
The buck stops at the owner. And Cherington got fired not long after he didn't re-sign Lester. DD signed Price instead, who doesn't fit into your conspiracy of only acquiring risky arms. The reasoning that you're complaining about is exactly why Cherington didn't want to risk long expensive contracts on aging pitchers. Exactly. Henry did what a good owner would do and replaced the people at charge after the Lester/Lackey thing. That's really nothing else he could have done without venturing into some Jerry Jones/Al Davis territory and we all know that stuff just doesn't fly.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2017 9:36:05 GMT -5
Another way to view it is that we converted Lester to Cespedes to Porcello who is $4m AAV less than Lester, isn't signed well into his age decline years and has a Cy Young in his pocket.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 25, 2017 12:57:28 GMT -5
Carson Smith, Tyler Thornburg, Drew Pomeranz. You're doing a bang up job Dave! Drew Pomeranz, who he was lied to about, is on DDo? Don't even come back with the league gave him a chance to retract, yeah after the deadline to late to make a move and he did finish the season with over 170 IP, so no that is not on DDo. Smith, whose was only even available ( see his filthy shut down stats as a reliver at 25 YO here www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca02.shtml ) because of concerns he'd eventually become injured (like every pitcher who ever played the game) so , No. Tyler, why are you even mentioning him?, because he shut it down for a period a few years back? So, No.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 25, 2017 13:03:22 GMT -5
Well Kimbrel did hold oppents to a .152 batting average, which was best in the American League. So he was elite in that standard. A standard that anyone cares about. And to that point, yes, the strikeouts. So if you want to nitpick my wording, fine, point awarded. The larger point is that he wasn't great last year and has been going in the wrong direction for several years, which is fairly worrisome given how reliever careers tend to go. By which consensus, public opinion?
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Post by redsox1534 on Jan 25, 2017 21:20:25 GMT -5
Can any one explain what his non guaranteed contract meet since he is a arbitration player not a fan how does it work and how many years does he have left of arb?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 26, 2017 2:10:40 GMT -5
Check out this spreadsheet from Cot's: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVYyinHlYUI0gE98AgFFb5tDFIoEatCfqEo2xDfv1NI/pubhtmlOff to the right you'll see columns for upcoming years that either have amounts (what is owed) or letter-number combos Al to A4. Those are the arbitration years. Some players have 3, some have 4 - that's another story. In the case of Kimbrel's last contract year of 2018, it says $1,000. That's a bit cryptic. It's a stand-in for a million which is the amount the Sox would have to pay to buy him out. We know that because the column labeled "Length / Total value" has "+18 c opt" tacked on to the end in his row. That's shorthand for a club option in 2018. There's a lot of valuable info in those sheets once you decipher them. Hope that helps.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 26, 2017 8:09:06 GMT -5
Another way to view it is that we converted Lester to Cespedes to Porcello who is $4m AAV less than Lester, isn't signed well into his age decline years and has a Cy Young in his pocket. And he's Right handed..
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 26, 2017 8:11:32 GMT -5
And his birthday is in December.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 26, 2017 13:13:10 GMT -5
Hey now right handed pitchers in this rotation are at a premium right now
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 26, 2017 17:41:42 GMT -5
And Cherington got fired not long after he didn't re-sign Lester. DD signed Price instead, who doesn't fit into your conspiracy of only acquiring risky arms. The reasoning that you're complaining about is exactly why Cherington didn't want to risk long expensive contracts on aging pitchers. Exactly. Henry did what a good owner would do and replaced the people at charge after the Lester/Lackey thing. That's really nothing else he could have done without venturing into some Jerry Jones/Al Davis territory and we all know that stuff just doesn't fly. Suffice to say I have a very different interpretation of how things went down (I think putting the Lester non-signing on Cherington is fairly dubious, for instance), but that's stuff we can only speculate about.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2017 5:40:21 GMT -5
The World Series winning Cubs traded Gleyber Torres, a likely top 5ish prospect, right-hander Adam Warren and minor league outfielders Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford to the Yankees for half a season of Chapman. How stupid is that ?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 27, 2017 11:08:21 GMT -5
The World Series winning Cubs traded Gleyber Torres, a likely top 5ish prospect, right-hander Adam Warren and minor league outfielders Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford to the Yankees for half a season of Chapman. How stupid is that ? That's the advantage of trading with a team that has more talent than it can find a use for, but is still trying to find any upgrade it can for a World Series run. The Rangers trading Chris Davis for Koji Uehara back in '11 is another good example of this.
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Post by zimmerdown on Jan 27, 2017 17:42:01 GMT -5
Another way to view it is that we converted Lester to Cespedes to Porcello who is $4m AAV less than Lester, isn't signed well into his age decline years and has a Cy Young in his pocket. Exactly the way to look at it.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 27, 2017 23:51:19 GMT -5
I'm in agreement. There's got to be an issue for this treatment to come into play. I'm assuming it's a tear and not shredding, but my only evidence for that is the team's reaction when they learned about it. If it is the former, this will be one more test of efficacy to add to the growing pile of data. And yes, The "Colon Cohort" should be the designated name for the members. That's one of the problems with evaluating these new procedures: small cohorts almost entirely dependent on anecdotal results and theory- (rather than functionally-) oriented information. The recent history of medicine is littered with "it should work because..." treatments that are exceptionally hard to quantify value-wise because of the very small number of analyzable cases (and the lack of controlled studies). So many confounders, too. Just like prolotherapy. I'll definitely say that on hearing about the stem cell injection, I got a lot more worried about his UCL.
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