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Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects
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Post by texs31 on Jan 23, 2017 10:54:46 GMT -5
In what I believe to be the first updated Top 100 of the "Prospect Year", Keith Law has Sam Travis at #98.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2017 11:46:14 GMT -5
I'm shocked.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 23, 2017 12:11:57 GMT -5
About time!
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Post by Guidas on Jan 23, 2017 20:44:27 GMT -5
Law's actually been a long time fan of Travis. Sees him as a 12-15 high OBP Mark Grace type. Unlike some others, Law says he is/can be a plus defender.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2017 20:53:03 GMT -5
Law's actually been a long time fan of Travis. Sees him as a 12-15 high OBP Mark Grace type. Unlike some others, Law says he is/can be a plus defender. It's the defense part that surprises me for a ranking this high of a first baseman. It also would have been considerably less surprising last year than this year considering the lost season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 23, 2017 23:30:40 GMT -5
Law's actually been a long time fan of Travis. Sees him as a 12-15 high OBP Mark Grace type. Unlike some others, Law says he is/can be a plus defender. It's the defense part that surprises me for a ranking this high of a first baseman. It also would have been considerably less surprising last year than this year considering the lost season. Well, I mean, "lost" season might be a bit strong. He got through most of two months and acquitted himself well in AAA during that time at the beginning of his second full season. I don't know that I'd put him in a top 100 list if I went through the work to do one, but I can see how he gets into someone's if they're high on him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2017 10:11:49 GMT -5
Law's actually been a long time fan of Travis. Sees him as a 12-15 high OBP Mark Grace type. Unlike some others, Law says he is/can be a plus defender. Travis just doesn't make contact like Grace could. Lots of medium-powered 1B get touted as Mark Grace types, but the thing with Grace was that he made a ton of contact when he swung, had supremely good plate discipline, hit a lot of doubles (he's 54th all time), played great defense, and was an excellent baserunner. I mean, the guy never once struck out 60 times in a season, but he had twelve seasons with more than 60 walks. That's pretty rare. A first baseman without home run power has to do everything else well to be a first division starter. The fact that Mark Grace did it doesn't mean it's a usual path to success. That said, Travis does do a lot of things well and the path to him being a major league starter is clear - a player doesn't need to be as good as Grace to be decent. The thing with Travis is that he's been younger for his level than you'd expect for a college draft pick. .307/.381/.452 split between Salem and Portland is pretty great for a 21-year-old any way you slice it.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 24, 2017 11:00:05 GMT -5
I have to wonder if Travis would be at #98 if they had 5 or 6 other top 100 players like they've had every year for awhile.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2017 11:26:56 GMT -5
I've posted my thoughts on Travis here. To echo James, I'm just not sure his hit tool is good enough to overcome the relative lack of power and the high offensive bar at 1B. Travis doesn't strike out a lot, but he's also not a Betts/Pedroia-esque low strikeout guy, and scouts have raised questions about his bat speed. By the way, for anyone else who was wondering, Law is rolling out his top 100 in 20-player increments, which is why guys like Groome and Devers haven't been mentioned yet.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 24, 2017 14:44:13 GMT -5
I've posted my thoughts on Travis here. To echo James, I'm just not sure his hit tool is good enough to overcome the relative lack of power and the high offensive bar at 1B. Travis doesn't strike out a lot, but he's also not a Betts/Pedroia-esque low strikeout guy, and scouts have raised questions about his bat speed. By the way, for anyone else who was wondering, Law is rolling out his top 100 in 20-player increments, which is why guys like Groome and Devers haven't been mentioned yet. I agree. Law's a professional and I was posting his thoughts, but I am not convinced Travis is an everyday MLB first baseman. Huge step up from AAA, and while I am not locked into the idea of first being a "power position," I do believe to justify playing there sans 25+ HR power, a player has to put up high OBP and 40+ doubles every year. I'm just not seeing it yet with this guy. Doesn't mean he won't be better than he's showing now, but that is a much less likely outcome.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 24, 2017 15:14:52 GMT -5
Law's actually been a long time fan of Travis. Sees him as a 12-15 high OBP Mark Grace type. Unlike some others, Law says he is/can be a plus defender. Travis just doesn't make contact like Grace could. Lots of medium-powered 1B get touted as Mark Grace types, but the thing with Grace was that he made a ton of contact when he swung, had supremely good plate discipline, hit a lot of doubles (he's 54th all time), played great defense, and was an excellent baserunner. I mean, the guy never once struck out 60 times in a season, but he had twelve seasons with more than 60 walks. That's pretty rare. A first baseman without home run power has to do everything else well to be a first division starter. The fact that Mark Grace did it doesn't mean it's a usual path to success. That said, Travis does do a lot of things well and the path to him being a major league starter is clear - a player doesn't need to be as good as Grace to be decent. The thing with Travis is that he's been younger for his level than you'd expect for a college draft pick. .307/.381/.452 split between Salem and Portland is pretty great for a 21-year-old any way you slice it. How was Grace an excellent baserunner? In 16 years he had 70 SB, while having 48 CS.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2017 16:04:32 GMT -5
Because he was good at going first to third, scoring from first on doubles, etc. Baserunning isn't just base-stealing and he wasn't anywhere close to fast. I probably should've said "good for a first baseman" which compares him more with Travis and other comparable players rather than the league as a whole. And it was meant to illustrate how much of an uphill climb it is for a low-power first baseman to be good.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 24, 2017 17:10:07 GMT -5
I guess it depends how much you value the home run. The offensive bar for first basemen isn't exactly off the charts he last 3 years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 24, 2017 23:39:25 GMT -5
Because he was good at going first to third, scoring from first on doubles, etc. Baserunning isn't just base-stealing and he wasn't anywhere close to fast. I probably should've said "good for a first baseman" which compares him more with Travis and other comparable players rather than the league as a whole. And it was meant to illustrate how much of an uphill climb it is for a low-power first baseman to be good. I agree with what your saying about Grace, I would just call that being a smart baserunner. Gets good jumps, knows how to read balls in play, and doesn't make mistakes. It's funny because that's exactly what you call Travis on his page. I just don't see how his baserunning could be an issue when he had 7 3B hits in 2015.
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Post by jmei on Jan 25, 2017 7:17:14 GMT -5
Saying that a player has no issues with his baserunning because he hit seven triples in the minor leagues is... let's just call it a not very good argument.
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Post by p23w on Jan 25, 2017 8:43:28 GMT -5
Base running skills can be worked on/acquired at any level. Much of that is dependent on the team on the field and their positioning. Travis can develop "Grace like" base running skills once he is a fixture on the roster. 1B defense, OTOH, gets short shrift by analysts. Everything from holding runners close to scooping throws, to quick feet in the execution of 3-6-1 or 3-6-3 DP's gets overlooked, IMO. Been a while since the Sox had one of those types in the everyday line up.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 25, 2017 9:00:31 GMT -5
Sam Travis can be a first-division starter and still end up not near Mark Grace. Grace becoming the prototype for "first baseman without any power who still succeeded" has sort of become the poor man's "well Greg Maddux didn't throw hard and look at him!" That goofy-looking righty who throws 91 in Double-A isn't Greg Maddux, and that first baseman with eight homers isn't Mark Grace.
To me, Travis has two possible paths to success. One is that he develops 20+ home run power, and the other involves him keeping his strikeouts below 15%, giving him a good shot to hit .300 consistently. If you think he has a good chance to do either of those things then being bullish on him is a very, very reasonable place to be.
How quickly we forget Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez? Gonzalez in particular was great at the 3-6-3 turn. Mike Napoli played very well defensively in 2013 and 2014 as well. I was always impressed with his footwork around the bag for a recently-converted catcher.
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Post by p23w on Jan 25, 2017 11:39:25 GMT -5
Sam Travis can be a first-division starter and still end up not near Mark Grace. Grace becoming the prototype for "first baseman without any power who still succeeded" has sort of become the poor man's "well Greg Maddux didn't throw hard and look at him!" That goofy-looking righty who throws 91 in Double-A isn't Greg Maddux, and that first baseman with eight homers isn't Mark Grace. To me, Travis has two possible paths to success. One is that he develops 20+ home run power, and the other involves him keeping his strikeouts below 15%, giving him a good shot to hit .300 consistently. If you think he has a good chance to do either of those things then being bullish on him is a very, very reasonable place to be. How quickly we forget Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez? Gonzalez in particular was great at the 3-6-3 turn. Mike Napoli played very well defensively in 2013 and 2014 as well. I was always impressed with his footwork around the bag for a recently-converted catcher. Big grin. I never considered Youk, a great 1Bman in the traditional sense. He never held runners on worth a damn. He did, however make incredible diving stops often savings double and keeping runners from advancing, but unless he caught them in the air those dives rarely turned into outs. Still it made for good highlight reels. Gonzalez, yes, he had the tools and skills of a quality defensive 1Bman, what he lacked was Kevin's athleticism with the highlight reel dives. Still, he made all the other plays and was a quality defender. On a side note, Youk developed the skills of a really good base runner while in the show. Gonzalez, for whatever reason, has never earned the reputation as a good base runner. Safe, maybe, but not the kind of runner who would take an extra base or challenge even a mediocre OF arm. I have yet to see Travis play, but I have high hopes for both his defense and offense based on what I have read. People tend to put an undue emphasis on hitting statistics, especially power numbers for a 1Bman. I do not. Particularly for this team which has plenty of power as it is currently constructed. I believe that this team would benefit more from a "Mark Grace" type of 1bman, then say a Youkilis, Napoli, or even an Encarnacion. Hanley should do just fine until Travis is ready, at which point HanRam becomes the DH and (if my hopes are to be fulfilled) Travis emerges as the player I have hopes he will become. My expectations may change after I see Travis on the field, but I am not going to go high, or low on him based on minor league batting statistics.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 25, 2017 11:55:18 GMT -5
Saying that a player has no issues with his baserunning because he hit seven triples in the minor leagues is... let's just call it a not very good argument. In Travis bio page you guys call him a smart baserunner. The 7 triples was meant to show that he can't be that slow for a 1B. If your Ortiz slow it's going to be very hard to get 7 triples in one season even in the minors. So what are his issues baserunning???
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 25, 2017 12:40:49 GMT -5
You're fighting a strawman. I listed the things Mark Grace did well to become a uniquely-good player, and you apparently took that to be a list of things Travis does badly. To top it off, you compared Travis positively to a guy who was worth -78 baserunning runs in his career.
Travis is a better, faster baserunner than David Ortiz.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 26, 2017 11:22:05 GMT -5
You're fighting a strawman. I listed the things Mark Grace did well to become a uniquely-good player, and you apparently took that to be a list of things Travis does badly. To top it off, you compared Travis positively to a guy who was worth -78 baserunning runs in his career. Travis is a better, faster baserunner than David Ortiz. Yet, one of baseball's great joys was watching Big Papi, broken wheels and all, stretching a hit, threatening to steal. I would rather assume, than not, that Sam Travis has a similar edge and, with his current hitting profile, and baserunning acumen, will also use that wall and gaps well enough to provide doubles power, though with less excitement than Papi provided. Also, there is no reason to think he won't add a dozen HR in his prime.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 26, 2017 11:46:49 GMT -5
We've three top 20 prospects according to Law, but we have to see until tomorrow's installment to see where they rank precisely.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 26, 2017 11:49:27 GMT -5
Groome already top 20 and Dombrowski has to wait for 3+ years for him to pitch in the MLB? Oh man
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 26, 2017 11:51:34 GMT -5
You're fighting a strawman. I listed the things Mark Grace did well to become a uniquely-good player, and you apparently took that to be a list of things Travis does badly. To top it off, you compared Travis positively to a guy who was worth -78 baserunning runs in his career. Travis is a better, faster baserunner than David Ortiz. In all fairness you called Mark Grace an excellent baserunner and he was worth -12.5 baserunning runs in his career. I didn't take it as things Travis does badly. It really wasn't about you, it was jmei and how he brings up how Travis won't provide value as a runner every time we debate him. So when you brought up Mark Grace was a excellent baserunner, implying that for Travis to reach his level he needs to become that it kinda set me off. That's my bad. If Travis current injury doesn't hinder him long term, I think he can be just like Mark Grace, an above average baserunner for a 1B. Let's be real almost no 1B give teams value baserunning, if they could chances are they would be playing a different position. So it's really are they OK and don't kill the team or are they like Ortiz and have a real negative while baserunning. I know I'm higher on Travis then most, have been for a long time. I was debating how I thought he was a top 100 guy this time last year. I see a guy that can hit .280 with good on base skills, play good D, hit a crap load of doubles and give you 10-15 HR a year. In his peak, if he adjusts his swing he might be able to get to 20 HR. He has raw power, just not in game power because of his swing.
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Post by mannofsteele on Jan 26, 2017 12:31:32 GMT -5
Groome already top 20 and Dombrowski has to wait for 3+ years for him to pitch in the MLB? Oh man As if the Red Sox need another left handed arm on their roster at the current moment.
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