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Post by texs31 on Jan 26, 2017 16:19:33 GMT -5
I probably should've had the forethought to name this thread "The Top 100 Prospects" as I doubt the mods want 1 for each of the lists but I'll let you all manage.
MLBs update is coming out on Saturday and, during their Top 10 Positional Rankings, only 3 players were given 65 overall ratings. They are Gleyber Torres, Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi. I would imagine that puts those 3 in the conversation for #1 overall.
Beni's success in the majors likely puts him as the favorite (plus, the cynic in me wonders if it's more interesting for them, as writers, to have it change after he graduates), no?
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Post by jmei on Jan 26, 2017 17:43:27 GMT -5
FYI, my preference is for each major list to have its own thread, but I don't feel too strongly about that and am open to suggestion.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2017 8:05:14 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Jan 27, 2017 9:09:11 GMT -5
The top 20 of Law's list is out. Plenty of familiar names:
1. Andrew Benintendi [7. Kopech] 11. Devers [17. Moncada] 20. Groome
It's also worthwhile noting that the top 20 is chock full of guys traded in the last year... and I'm not sure what the significance of that is...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2017 9:32:13 GMT -5
Ryan D @dunt1
@keithlaw Interesting perspective as always Keith. Do you really think K% is a big concern w/ Moncada? High K% seems to be a growing trend
keithlaw @keithlaw 9m9 minutes ago
keithlaw Retweeted Ryan D It's not just the number, but how a player ends up there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2017 9:56:32 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 27, 2017 10:16:17 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive. Someone check in on deepjohn again.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 27, 2017 10:17:25 GMT -5
Keith Law has always been aggressive when it comes to Devers too. He's always had him in front of Moncada. I like that because I think Devers is just as good, if not better at a younger age.
Law must think Kopech must be a starter and forgot that his floor is as a reliever. Still Kopech is going to have to be Zach Britton good to be a guaranteed top 10 pick in his list as a reliever.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jan 27, 2017 10:18:34 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive. Deepjohn might call it conservative :-). Either way, I like that Keith goes all-in on guys that he really likes. He isn't always right, but he stands by his evaluations.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 27, 2017 10:23:17 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive. Someone check in on deepjohn again. I think Deep John got banned after the Chris Sale trade. For obvious reasons after he wouldn't let the Kopech aspect of it go.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 27, 2017 10:28:49 GMT -5
Law must think Kopech must be a starter and forgot that his floor is as a reliever. Still Kopech is going to have to be Zach Britton good to be a guaranteed top 10 pick in his list as a reliever. Every pitcher's floor is a guy who gets hurt and doesn't make it out of the minor leagues. Every minor league pitcher who doesn't get hurt is likely to end up a reliever. Keith Law isn't forgetting anything, he's just very, very bullish on him. You throw ceiling and floor around a lot like there are concrete things that everyone agrees about and are weighted equally. If I think there's a 30% chance Kopech ends up a starter and Law thinks there's a 70% chance he ends up a starter then we're obviously going to view him very differently. You should trust the aggregate more than Keith Law. And you should trust Keith Law more than me.
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Post by splendidsplinter on Jan 27, 2017 10:34:57 GMT -5
I watched the kid in spring training last year. He was all hustle. Watched him take BP For a couple of rounds. Didn't miss anything. Nothing but line drives.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 27, 2017 11:19:17 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive. To say nothing of Groome at 20. Then again, Law was s big fan of Groome going into the draft (as his #1 talent), so it's not that surprising. Still, ranking a HSer with less than 10 pro innings that high is *very* bullish. Of note, while having three in the top 20 is great, it's less edifying when one recognizes that Benintendi isn't really a "prospect" anymore: he's the starting LF. And 11-20-98 isn't nearly as exciting. The system is awfully thin, although not disastrously so. Compare to NY, though, and the picture's a lot less rosy. I've seen a lot of folks busting on NY as non-contenders, but they could very easily snatch a WC, and they have the farm and funds to look suddenly like the '94-'95 teams.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 27, 2017 11:32:56 GMT -5
Eh, if he thought Groome was the best amateur prospect then the number of innings thrown isn't really going to make much of a difference barring an injury or something.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2017 12:13:00 GMT -5
The top 20 of Law's list is out. Plenty of familiar names: 1. Andrew Benintendi [7. Kopech] 11. Devers [17. Moncada] 20. Groome It's also worthwhile noting that the top 20 is chock full of guys traded in the last year... and I'm not sure what the significance of that is... How about Margot and Espinoza, btw?
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Post by texs31 on Jan 27, 2017 12:29:37 GMT -5
24 an 21, respectively
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 27, 2017 14:48:47 GMT -5
Isn't that a bit low for Moncada? Did something happen?
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Post by ramireja on Jan 27, 2017 15:01:22 GMT -5
Isn't that a bit low for Moncada? Did something happen? Law says: "Moncada wraps his bat and can’t get to the stuff thrown inside and backspin it, getting on top of those pitches or missing them entirely. When he reached the majors, it was as if he’d never seen a breaking ball in his life. The latter problem can change with development time, but the former is a more significant mechanical question that reduces his likely ceiling for me."
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Post by ramireja on Jan 27, 2017 15:03:48 GMT -5
Other Keith Law rankings in the top 20 that seemed bold to me (although admittedly I'm not really up to speed on the Top 100 consensus yet):
16. Mitch Keller 6. Cody Bellinger 3. Amed Rosario
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 27, 2017 15:08:36 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Law had Moncada at 17th last year as well. He's always been lower on Moncada than others have.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 27, 2017 15:29:29 GMT -5
From the Law chat: meadowparty.com/blog/2017/01/27/klawchat-12717/On Devers: I think there's 30 HR power in there given time. He got big this winter, so I wonder if he's just going to grow off third base - his defense there right now is actually pretty good, but man he is huge. On Moncada: Minor League Player of the Year doesn't affect my opinion of a player - it's just a vote. I think the swing itself leads to swing and miss and a major hole that he's going to struggle to close. On Kopech: You lost me right there at "makeup issues." You almost certainly know nothing about Kopech's makeup except the secondhand stuff you've read. I would bet good money I know more about the subject, and obviously I'm comfortable ranking him where I did even knowing that information. And hey, feel free to omit the delivery questions I had on Reyes, since they don't support your whining. and... Big command difference between the two even right now. Alvarez could barely throw a strike a year ago. I don't know if he ever gets past 40 command. Kopech I think will.
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Post by xycosis on Jan 27, 2017 15:29:50 GMT -5
#1 BennyBaseball #7 Kopech #11 Devers #17 Moncada #20 Groome #21 Espinoza #24 Margot
Not too shabby even if they all aren't still here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 27, 2017 15:53:33 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Law had Moncada at 17th last year as well. He's always been lower on Moncada than others have. Law had him #5 in his midseason top 50 rankings.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 27, 2017 16:17:01 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive. To say nothing of Groome at 20. Then again, Law was s big fan of Groome going into the draft (as his #1 talent), so it's not that surprising. Still, ranking a HSer with less than 10 pro innings that high is *very* bullish. Of note, while having three in the top 20 is great, it's less edifying when one recognizes that Benintendi isn't really a "prospect" anymore: he's the starting LF. And 11-20-98 isn't nearly as exciting. The system is awfully thin, although not disastrously so. Compare to NY, though, and the picture's a lot less rosy. I've seen a lot of folks busting on NY as non-contenders, but they could very easily snatch a WC, and they have the farm and funds to look suddenly like the '94-'95 teams. It's only less rosey in comparison to NY if you ignore all the young guys actually contributing to the major league team. It seems like you'd feel better about the system if Benintendi was less of a bet to contribute to the major league team right a way because we could leave him in the rankings longer. Not to pick on you but this seems to be a common feeling among people even if they don't mean to feel that way.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jan 27, 2017 16:22:14 GMT -5
Kopech at 7 is... aggressive. I'll be nice and say aggressive. To say nothing of Groome at 20. Then again, Law was s big fan of Groome going into the draft (as his #1 talent), so it's not that surprising. Still, ranking a HSer with less than 10 pro innings that high is *very* bullish. Of note, while having three in the top 20 is great, it's less edifying when one recognizes that Benintendi isn't really a "prospect" anymore: he's the starting LF. And 11-20-98 isn't nearly as exciting. The system is awfully thin, although not disastrously so. Compare to NY, though, and the picture's a lot less rosy. I've seen a lot of folks busting on NY as non-contenders, but they could very easily snatch a WC, and they have the farm and funds to look suddenly like the '94-'95 teams. And a few years ago the Yanks system was garbage and ours was stacked. Now our MLB is stacked and they have a better farm. It's a cycle. Some of those prospects will likely flame out anyway. Regarding the 11-20-98, that seems about average to me. We have grown accustomed to 5-6 guys in the top 100, but with 30 teams, each should really have 3 or 4 in a perfectly balanced system. Two in the top 20 is nothing to sneeze at especially when you have young studs at the MLB level. Law still has the Sox system at #16, which is average. Certainly, it is top heavy, but we have IFAs and the draft to restock, and hopefully, some guys like Dalbec make a jump.
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