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2017 Red Sox Major League Spring Training Thread
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 21, 2017 11:58:20 GMT -5
Although many will disagree with this thought it is definitely not out of the question. He wouldn't be the first guy to do it at the age of 20 but it wont happen til later in the season if at all and only if he is ripping the leather off the ball. It will be important for him to get off to a good start unlike last year. Hopefully he has a great spring training, a great year could start there. I remember a 20 year old short stop playing in world series games in 2013...... Yup. Although he was playing almost entirely third base during that run.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 21, 2017 23:19:30 GMT -5
What's the chances that Rutledge gets sent back to Colorado, Brentz is waived and Matt Dominguez makes the opening day roster as the 25th man? I'd bet every dime I have against that scenario coming to pass.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 22, 2017 8:11:09 GMT -5
The Red Sox have signed Mitchell Osnowitz, a guy who only started pitching after college by mistake at a Braves tryout camp. I found out he has his own blog that gives some great insight in the hard work guys put in to get their chance. From January 1st: The entire entry is fun to read. Glad he's getting another chance with us. maosnowitz.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/hello-friends-where-ive-been/
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2017 8:14:06 GMT -5
In 1088 MLB Plate appearances, Rutledge has hit .262/.312/.397. In 1369 MLB plate appearances Matt Dominguez is at .231/.273/.371. In 583 Triple-A plate appearances, Rutledge has hit .308/.368/.458. In 1837 plate appearances at Triple-A, Dominguez is at .264/.312/.407. Now, it should be noted that Rutledge has spent time in easier hitting environments - the advantage in wRC+ goes down to 80 to 77. But it's hard to argue that Dominguez is a better hitter than Rutledge, and he's obviously not more versatile, so he'd have to be enough better defensively to make up the difference.
The "Brentz is waived," or at least designated for assignment, portion of that scenario is pretty likely though. Seems to me that he'd be working out at first base at Fort Myers if he had any real non-injury chance of making the team.
EDIT: Even with his performance questions, I also tend to forget just how old Brentz is. He's four months older than Rutledge, seven months older than Selsky, eight older than Dominguez (who it feels like has been a missed prospect himself for years now). So even if there was an injury in the outfield I feel like they might still go out of the organization or run with Selsky.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2017 8:23:50 GMT -5
I missed a couple pages on this thread so my apologies for repeating a conversation, but in response to a couple posts on page 1....
If Joe Kelley is anything but a bullpen arm, I will be extremely disappointed. He's a lousy starter who at best can give you some starts because you need him, but he has the potential to be a great bullpen piece. This is where the starter WAR vs the bullpen WAR crap can really get out of whack. Shutdown bullpens are vastly underrated by advanced statistics and this bullpen not only needs Kelley they need him to be really good or they are in trouble.
Kelley is also a mental midget and I wouldn't want to mess with him by jerking him from role to role. Tell him he's a bullpen arm and let him concentrate and be that.
Remember when Owens was at worst a 4/5 starter and that's incredibly valuable so they shouldn't deal him? Well... it's too bad they didn't cash that chip in when they could have..
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2017 8:36:38 GMT -5
If Joe Kelley is anything but a bullpen arm, I will be extremely disappointed. He's a lousy starter who at best can give you some starts because you need him, but he has the potential to be a great bullpen piece. This is where the starter WAR vs the bullpen WAR crap can really get out of whack. Shutdown bullpens are vastly underrated by advanced statistics and this bullpen not only needs Kelley they need him to be really good or they are in trouble. This is one of those times WAR is a great reminder that a third starter is more valuable than relievers - because dudes like Joe Kelly who are bad starters can become really great relievers. Look at Wade Davis - Davis didn't have a particular profile of someone for whom a bullpen move was obvious. He was just an okay starter who got put in a position to maximize his stuff. Just because a third starter is more valuable than a reliever doesn't mean you should try to keep shoehorning good relievers into starting roles. That has nothing to do with WAR and everything to do with talent identification. I can't articulate how strongly I disagree with this. That is a crappy thing to say about Kelly, who is a sharp guy with a considerate approach to pitching who also has an arrow-straight fastball and mediocre command. This idea that pitchers who underperform their velocity are doing so because of a mental block is antiquated and unfair. Starting pitching is a hard physical task and the fact Kelly can't do it well doesn't make him a "mental midget." If you're going to call someone a "mental midget" you could at least spell their goddamned name right.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 22, 2017 8:38:22 GMT -5
Maybe I am just an optimistic homer but I believe both Owens and Kelly are going to have very good years. I am going to have faith that the pitch Kelly found for the playoffs last year doesn't just disappear and propels him to the next level. The Sox do need him to be great out of the pen but with the new pitch I'm not going to totally discount the return to the rotation.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2017 8:43:07 GMT -5
Fair enough on the Kelly mental stuff not a road worth going down - I withdraw my comment...
Regarding the WAR stuff... you're talking apples and oranges with what I was referring to. In no world, is Joe Kelly what someone would refer to as a 3rd starter.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 22, 2017 9:05:17 GMT -5
I missed a couple pages on this thread so my apologies for repeating a conversation, but in response to a couple posts on page 1.... If Joe Kelley is anything but a bullpen arm, I will be extremely disappointed. He's a lousy starter who at best can give you some starts because you need him, but he has the potential to be a great bullpen piece. This is where the starter WAR vs the bullpen WAR crap can really get out of whack. Shutdown bullpens are vastly underrated by advanced statistics and this bullpen not only needs Kelley they need him to be really good or they are in trouble. Kelley is also a mental midget and I wouldn't want to mess with him by jerking him from role to role. Tell him he's a bullpen arm and let him concentrate and be that. Remember when Owens was at worst a 4/5 starter and that's incredibly valuable so they shouldn't deal him? Well... it's too bad they didn't cash that chip in when they could have.. Farrell yesterday: "But right now he's a one to two inning reliever for us". m.mlb.com/bos/video/topic/8067842/v1224769483/kelly-knows-his-role-as-key-part-of-pen/?c_id=bos
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 9:54:39 GMT -5
I missed a couple pages on this thread so my apologies for repeating a conversation, but in response to a couple posts on page 1.... If Joe Kelley is anything but a bullpen arm, I will be extremely disappointed. He's a lousy starter who at best can give you some starts because you need him, but he has the potential to be a great bullpen piece. This is where the starter WAR vs the bullpen WAR crap can really get out of whack. Shutdown bullpens are vastly underrated by advanced statistics and this bullpen not only needs Kelley they need him to be really good or they are in trouble. Kelley is also a mental midget and I wouldn't want to mess with him by jerking him from role to role. Tell him he's a bullpen arm and let him concentrate and be that. Remember when Owens was at worst a 4/5 starter and that's incredibly valuable so they shouldn't deal him? Well... it's too bad they didn't cash that chip in when they could have.. Farrell yesterday: "But right now he's a one to two inning reliever for us". m.mlb.com/bos/video/topic/8067842/v1224769483/kelly-knows-his-role-as-key-part-of-pen/?c_id=bosThanks god that rumor has been put to rest.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 22, 2017 10:37:14 GMT -5
Thanks god that rumor has been put to rest. lol, of course it has, so far pitchers haven't been stretched longer than 1-2 innings. "right now"
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Post by Smittyw on Feb 22, 2017 11:27:23 GMT -5
Remember when Owens was at worst a 4/5 starter and that's incredibly valuable so they shouldn't deal him? No.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 12:05:48 GMT -5
Remember when Owens was at worst a 4/5 starter and that's incredibly valuable so they shouldn't deal him? Well... it's too bad they didn't cash that chip in when they could have.. Remember when Mookie hadn't proven anything yet when he broke out at Greenville? Good thing they didn't cash that chip in when they could have.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2017 12:15:01 GMT -5
Remember when Owens was at worst a 4/5 starter and that's incredibly valuable so they shouldn't deal him? Well... it's too bad they didn't cash that chip in when they could have.. Remember when Mookie hadn't proven anything yet when he broke out at Greenville? Good thing they didn't cash that chip in when they could have. Mookie broke out so fast and shot thru the system it's a terrible Comp. Owens was around a while with big question marks. People made big assumptions that certain things were going to improve drastically and that his change up was so good that it wouldn't matter if they didn't. I'm not all about trading prospects but the organization miss evaluated Owens big time. It's fair to question that especially me when I called it out at the time. If I remember correctly, JMei wasn't a fan either. I don't blame anyone still around for that but Cherrington screwed that up. If their evaluation was even a little on target then then it's probably likely that either Espinoza or Kopech is still here as one has to assume the Pomeranz trade isn't necessary.
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2017 12:29:47 GMT -5
I've never been a big Owens fan, but there's no reason to talk about him like he's already reached bust status. He's still just 24, has two option years left, and is coming off a season where he admittedly regressed (especially with his control) but still put up a 3.53 ERA/4.48 FIP in 137.2 AAA IP and showed the ability to miss bats (albeit also the inability to throw strikes) in a short 22 IP stint in the majors. There's still a pretty significant chance that he ends up as a back-end starter or better. I would wait at least a couple more years before I started gloating about him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 22, 2017 12:45:22 GMT -5
I forgot that Owens had 2 options left. He was the guy that stayed on the roster in 2015 for the rest of the year when he was called up. Brian Johnson was the one who got optioned and has only one option year left, I believe. It'll be interesting what the Sox do with Johnson if he performs this year. I really hope they keep him around. I'm a big Brian Johnson fan.
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2017 12:46:08 GMT -5
Thanks god that rumor has been put to rest. lol, of course it has, so far pitchers haven't been stretched longer than 1-2 innings. "right now" Literally every source other than one anonymous guy on an internet message board suggests that Kelly will be a reliever going forward. - October 12, 2016: "I think he's found his role late in games," Farrell said. "I think it's a role that fits his personality. And he's such a good athlete, it's almost like you view him as an everyday player - a guy that has the ability to pitch each and every day. I think that excites Joe, knowing that the possibility of pitching tonight is always there." (Jen McCaffrey, masslive, link)
- January 4, 2016: "So now Kelly is heading into spring training with a chance to join newly-acquired Tyler Thornburg, Matt Barnes, and, eventually, Carson Smith, as a candidate to set-up closer Craig Kimbrel." (Rob Bradford, WEEI, link)
- February 12, 2017: "As for Kelly himself, he said he has fully embraced his role as a reliever after entering his other two Red Sox spring training camps as a starter. He said he didn't fully embrace it until this past offseason. "I got a couple of phone calls telling me what was going to happen coming into spring training," he said. "I knew that's what was best for the team." Kelly threw approximately 20-25 pitches during his workouts this winter instead of the 40-pitch sessions that he did as a starter. "It's not like I was throwing changeups this offseason in the bullpen," he said. "I mean, I mixed one in here and there but it won't probably be a pitch that I regularly use so it wasn't a focus of trying to get that thing dialed in to locate and throw strikes." (Chris Smith, masslive, link)
- February 20, 2017: "The disappearance of the changeup all but drives home the change in role for Kelly. He's no longer a four-pitch starter, trying to command his fastball for 90-plus pitches. He's a two- or three-pitch reliever, something of a secret weapon in front of Craig Kimbrel in the Red Sox bullpen." (Brian MacPherson, ProJo, link)
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 12:47:37 GMT -5
Remember when Mookie hadn't proven anything yet when he broke out at Greenville? Good thing they didn't cash that chip in when they could have. Mookie broke out so fast and shot thru the system it's a terrible Comp. Owens was around a while with big question marks. People made big assumptions that certain things were going to improve drastically and that his change up was so good that it wouldn't matter if they didn't. I'm not all about trading prospects but the organization miss evaluated Owens big time. It's fair to question that especially me when I called it out at the time. If I remember correctly, JMei wasn't a fan either. I don't blame anyone still around for that but Cherrington screwed that up. If their evaluation was even a little on target then then it's probably likely that either Espinoza or Kopech is still here as one has to assume the Pomeranz trade isn't necessary. You seem to think that other teams overvalued Owens and were willing to overpay for him. Maybe every team was just as smart as you and never offered more than a middle reliever.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 22, 2017 13:00:41 GMT -5
I'm just finally glad that Kelly is finally embracing the role as a reliever. It took forever and the guy kind of seemed selfish and stobborn when it to being a starter, even when it cleary wasn't working out anymore.
I however disagree with the notion that the Sox "need" Kelly. The Sox would find it to be really "helpful" that he performed out of the bullpen, but the Sox do have some minor league options in Brandon Workman and Kyle Martin if Kelly isn't doing the job and needs to get optioned down. Kelly still has one more option left.
If Kelly can't do the job as a 7th inning reliever, I'm sure Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross Jr would do fine platooning in that role. Carson Smith is only a half season away too.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Feb 22, 2017 13:14:46 GMT -5
I've never been a big Owens fan, but there's no reason to talk about him like he's already reached bust status. He's still just 24, has two option years left, and is coming off a season where he admittedly regressed (especially with his control) but still put up a 3.53 ERA/4.48 FIP in 137.2 AAA IP and showed the ability to miss bats (albeit also the inability to throw strikes) in a short 22 IP stint in the majors. There's still a pretty significant chance that he ends up as a back-end starter or better. I would wait at least a couple more years before I started gloating about him. Not to mention that pitchers as tall as him often take a little longer to work out their mechanics.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2017 13:16:32 GMT -5
Mookie broke out so fast and shot thru the system it's a terrible Comp. Owens was around a while with big question marks. People made big assumptions that certain things were going to improve drastically and that his change up was so good that it wouldn't matter if they didn't. I'm not all about trading prospects but the organization miss evaluated Owens big time. It's fair to question that especially me when I called it out at the time. If I remember correctly, JMei wasn't a fan either. I don't blame anyone still around for that but Cherrington screwed that up. If their evaluation was even a little on target then then it's probably likely that either Espinoza or Kopech is still here as one has to assume the Pomeranz trade isn't necessary. You seem to think that other teams overvalued Owens and were willing to overpay for him. Maybe every team was just as smart as you and never offered more than a middle reliever. Yea maybe that's the case... good talk I won't make the mistake of criticizing a prospect evaluation around here again.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 13:24:20 GMT -5
You seem to think that other teams overvalued Owens and were willing to overpay for him. Maybe every team was just as smart as you and never offered more than a middle reliever. Yea maybe that's the case... good talk I won't make the mistake of criticizing a prospect evaluation around here again. Go ahead and criticize away. I just think the "trade prospects when they're valued highest" narrative to be ridiculous. No one can possibly have any idea when that moment is and we also have no idea what was offered to be able to judge whether they should have made a trade or not. It's not the stock market. You're basically criticizing the Red Sox for not being far smarter than other teams.
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2017 14:14:21 GMT -5
It's not unreasonable to expect a team to be slightly more knowledgeable about its own prospects than the other 29 teams. Not a lot more knowledgeable, but to have some slight evaluation advantage from being around him that much more often, and thus to have a mild ability to sell high or keep the players that you're higher on than the market.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2017 15:56:13 GMT -5
It's not unreasonable to expect a team to be slightly more knowledgeable about its own prospects than the other 29 teams. Not a lot more knowledgeable, but to have some slight evaluation advantage from being around him that much more often, and thus to have a mild ability to sell high or keep the players that you're higher on than the market. I think that's true of prospects as a group, but a harsh expectation for the individual evaluation of any one prospect. It's also a reason why some skepticism develops when a team is willing to trade a prospect who otherwise looks excellent. I can't help but feel that opinions of Moncada and Giolito are ever-so-slightly lower now that the Red Sox and Nationals were willing to trade them.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 16:02:59 GMT -5
It's not unreasonable to expect a team to be slightly more knowledgeable about its own prospects than the other 29 teams. Not a lot more knowledgeable, but to have some slight evaluation advantage from being around him that much more often, and thus to have a mild ability to sell high or keep the players that you're higher on than the market. The other 29 teams also know that and will wonder why that team is willing to shop a prospect. I just don't know what team was going to ever give up something significant for Owens to the point where the Red Sox should have 'sold high' on him. You may as well keep those prospects and hope they reach their ceilings if other teams aren't pretty greatly overvaluing them and specifically targeting them. When the Red Sox were talking to teams back when Owens was much more highly regarded, those teams were probably asking about Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart and JBJ first. I really don't know how this can be argued further without actually knowing everything that Cherington knows about what other teams were offering to see if they ever had a good option to 'sell high' on him. I just don't think it's a good argument to say that the Red Sox should have ripped some team off in a trade because he doesn't look like he'll be as good as everyone hoped.
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