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2017 Red Sox Major League Spring Training Thread
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2017 16:18:51 GMT -5
I'm fairly confident that at some point in the last three years, the Red Sox received a trade offer for Owens that valued him higher than he is valued right now. It doesn't mean they're idiots for not trading him (no front office is close to 100% prescient-- the good ones are just the ones who creep up to 51% or 52%), but this idea that it's impossible for a team to sell high is what I'm pushing back on. Teams can and do and should sell high.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 16:28:34 GMT -5
I'm fairly confident that at some point in the last three years, the Red Sox received a trade offer for Owens that valued him higher than he is valued right now. It doesn't mean they're idiots for not trading him (no front office is close to 100% prescient-- the good ones are just the ones who creep up to 51% or 52%), but this idea that it's impossible for a team to sell high is what I'm pushing back on. Teams can and do and should sell high. That's different than what rjr was saying which is that they were dumb for not selling high on him. Not an exact quote, but we've had this discussion 100 times before and that's the argument.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2017 16:32:04 GMT -5
Everyone see that intentional walks can now be called by the manager and pitches don't need to be thrown? I'm glad about that one. When I was about 10, I asked my dad why pitchers don't lick their fingers on the rubber 4 times because the penalty for that is adding a ball to the count.
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2017 16:47:05 GMT -5
I'm fairly confident that at some point in the last three years, the Red Sox received a trade offer for Owens that valued him higher than he is valued right now. It doesn't mean they're idiots for not trading him (no front office is close to 100% prescient-- the good ones are just the ones who creep up to 51% or 52%), but this idea that it's impossible for a team to sell high is what I'm pushing back on. Teams can and do and should sell high. That's different than what rjr was saying which is that they were dumb for not selling high on him. Not an exact quote, but we've had this discussion 100 times before and that's the argument. I wasn't responding to his point, I was responding to your point. They're not idiots because they didn't sell high on Henry Owens. No team evaluates players with 100% accuracy, and I'm not going to castigate a front office for one mis-evaluation. But it is possible to sell high on prospects.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 22, 2017 17:32:05 GMT -5
I'd argue that one consistent theme with nearly all of the prospects that Dombrowski has traded is that there was a decent chance he was selling high on them.
Moncada - strikeout issue, where does he play on D? Kopech - Value is through the roof... based on 3-4 inning stints in the AFL against tired hitters, off-field issues Vic Diaz - bullpen arm that had some helium Dubon - If you think he's a utility guy, but the Brewers thought he could be a starting SS, that's the very definition. Pennington - First full healthy season after TJ. Looked great, but it's entirely possible this is the best he'll ever look (Shaw - not a prospect, but pretty much ditto what I said on Dubon, but with "bench infielder" instead of "utility guy" and "3B" instead of "SS") Espinoza - stuff is electric, but has yet to put it together - will he? (could also go the other way, so more of a risk play than a sell high play) LAJ Basabe - breakout guy in Greenville had great numbers, but a low ceiling. Plus it's remotely possible AZ traded for the wrong Basabe. Wilkerson - Was screaming for a shot in the majors at the time based on milb performance. Likely the highest his stock ever gets. Looks like a big sell high success already.
And from the prior offseason: Margot - was possible he wasn't going to hit enough to actualize other tools. Doesn't look that that's what happened. - Sell high failure. Guerra - was more possible he wasn't going to hit like he did in Greenville and that's what happened and then some. - Sell high success that arguably makes the Kimbrel trade worth it, especially if he pitches better this year. Allen - recently drafted and a long way off. Maybe more of a risk play than sell high. Asuaje - throw-in, but stock went way up after trade.
I figure LAX Basabe wasn't a sell-high guy. Neither were other guys I didn't mention.
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Post by juanpena on Feb 22, 2017 21:58:56 GMT -5
Kopech - Value is through the roof... based on 3-4 inning stints in the AFL against tired hitters, off-field issues I think the numbers at Salem (where he was age-advanced) and the radar-gun readings did as much or more for his value.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2017 4:07:47 GMT -5
To be frank and honest though, only 4 prospects has even survived the Dombrowski trade winds so far. Sam Travis, Benintendi, Marco Hernandez, and Devers. Maybe you can include Brian Johnson in this group, maybe not.
Dombrowski throughout the course of his career has viewed prospects in two ways. How quickly can they get to the big leagues? Or what can I get for them at this present time? I don't even think he looks at the value card. I think that if he can take a prospect that's not close to the big leagues and turn it into a real major league asset, he'll do it 10 times out of 10.
All of the prospects that survived the trades are close to being big league ready or are big league ready. I don't think that's a coincidence.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2017 4:17:23 GMT -5
To sum up Margot, I don't think his hit tool was too much of a question (maybe it was to a couple people on here). I always seen his hit tool as being at least average or slightly above average.
The problem with Manny Margot is that his hit tool doesn't have any substance behind it. In other words, his OPS isn't spectacular in any regard and might never be. He's basically a impatient singles hitter with occasional gap power. A Brandon Phillips type with more speed.
His speed, defense, and arm will always make him a above average player in general (especially if he's used in CF) but when you way the impartial offense into the equation, it kind of brings his value down some.
The Kimbrel trade would of been more fair if was a even swap one for one with Kimbrel and Margot at the time. Although the trade seems more fair now that Guerra and Allen probably are really long shots to ever see the big leagues and Asuaje was just a throw in at the time, like Marco Hernandez was. After seeing the market for closers explode, it's hard to pick apart the thought of trading for a controllable good young closer. It is fair to question if they picked the right guy (Kimbrel needs to be better). I think Kimbrel will be alright, only time will tell.
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Post by rookie13 on Feb 23, 2017 9:22:03 GMT -5
Kopech - Value is through the roof... based on 3-4 inning stints in the AFL against tired hitters, off-field issues I think the numbers at Salem (where he was age-advanced) and the radar-gun readings did as much or more for his value. I think his point is that Kopech, despite his dominance all year, still only had 78.2 innings total, including the AFL. Not to mention he had 5 BB/9 at Salem, where the majority of his season was played.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2017 9:51:24 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 23, 2017 10:15:58 GMT -5
I think the numbers at Salem (where he was age-advanced) and the radar-gun readings did as much or more for his value. I think his point is that Kopech, despite his dominance all year, still only had 78.2 innings total, including the AFL. Not to mention he had 5 BB/9 at Salem, where the majority of his season was played. If he hadn't played in the AFL, his last two outings would have been his 2/3 of an inning stinkbomb in his last regular season game and his 2 1/3 stinker in the first game of the playoffs. He'd built his value in the regular season for sure, but I don't think he'd have been a top 25/30 guy like he's been this offseason. He opened a LOT of eyes down in Arizona, in part by default by being the best arm there. Without Arizona, I think he might've been more around 50, but a guy who many outlets would've listed as someone who could jump really high really quickly. That said, you're probably correct that I was underselling his regular season. Doesn't help that I saw one of his first games back before he went on that run.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 23, 2017 11:09:15 GMT -5
From Dombrowski on Farrell: “I think he is a good in-game manager,” Dombrowski said. “It’s interesting people talk about that. I always say, point to examples. But the realty is, you start with the pitching staff. He handles the pitching staff very well. He’s, I think, very well-regarded in the industry at handling the pitchers." The man obviously doesn't read Sox Prospects (first sin) and "well-regarded in the industry is as B.S." as, as "pound for pound" or "I think he's as good as any player in the league in that regard." Eric is probably sending him a storage bin's worth of metrics right now on how Farrell is demonstrably not a good in-game manager, and there are a lot of people here who vehemently contest the effectiveness of his "handling of pitchers." That said, what do we expect the GM to say after extending the guy? "Hey, we blew it letting Francona go and not going after Maddon when we had the chance. But hey, that was all Larry and before I was here. And Larry's gone now, so there!"
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 23, 2017 20:53:48 GMT -5
Great. Win.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 24, 2017 8:06:27 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton
Red Sox v. Mets: Holt SS, Benintendi LF, Ramirez DH, Bradley Jr. CF, Brentz RF, Hernandez 2B, Leon C, Craig 1B, Rutledge 3B, Owens LHP
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 24, 2017 8:14:45 GMT -5
I'd argue that one consistent theme with nearly all of the prospects that Dombrowski has traded is that there was a decent chance he was selling high on them. Moncada - strikeout issue, where does he play on D? Kopech - Value is through the roof... based on 3-4 inning stints in the AFL against tired hitters, off-field issues Vic Diaz - bullpen arm that had some helium Dubon - If you think he's a utility guy, but the Brewers thought he could be a starting SS, that's the very definition. Pennington - First full healthy season after TJ. Looked great, but it's entirely possible this is the best he'll ever look (Shaw - not a prospect, but pretty much ditto what I said on Dubon, but with "bench infielder" instead of "utility guy" and "3B" instead of "SS") Espinoza - stuff is electric, but has yet to put it together - will he? (could also go the other way, so more of a risk play than a sell high play) LAJ Basabe - breakout guy in Greenville had great numbers, but a low ceiling. Plus it's remotely possible AZ traded for the wrong Basabe. Wilkerson - Was screaming for a shot in the majors at the time based on milb performance. Likely the highest his stock ever gets. Looks like a big sell high success already. And from the prior offseason: Margot - was possible he wasn't going to hit enough to actualize other tools. Doesn't look that that's what happened. - Sell high failure. Guerra - was more possible he wasn't going to hit like he did in Greenville and that's what happened and then some. - Sell high success that arguably makes the Kimbrel trade worth it, especially if he pitches better this year. Allen - recently drafted and a long way off. Maybe more of a risk play than sell high. Asuaje - throw-in, but stock went way up after trade. I figure LAX Basabe wasn't a sell-high guy. Neither were other guys I didn't mention. Totally agree with this analysis. At sox prospects We show great passion for our guys. Think deepjohn on kopech. That is the fun of reading on the site. But, maybe we go a little overboard. I will focus on the top 4 guys based on sox p site. Those 4 are moncada, kopech, espinoza and margot. The rest of the prospects mentioned I totally agree DD sold high. Moncada I think we and the world were a little over board on him. From the beginning he had the hole in the swing and suspect D. Potentially he can over come both short comings. Pitch recognition and adjusting is VERY hard. Not impossible. So far in the time he was in the organization he had not made much progress in correcting either one . Kopech has no track record to speak of. Limited innings and nothing really above low A. Possibly a future Koufax or very likely a TJ surgery. Still 2 yrs or more away from bigs. Both traded for a young controllable all star starting pitcher. Very hard to find. DD sold very high. I am certainly not an expert, but I see less than 50% chance that either make it. I REALLY hope both make it big time. AE this site has loved him from the get go. Small slight pitcher who has not dominated at low A. High risk high reward. Pomp is young and controllable. Has shown he is a major league ready pitcher with an all star note next to his name. Maybe not the same ceiling. DD definitely sold high. Margot appears to be a decent major league outfielder. No power, good OF. Got in return a proven young power relief pitcher. DD definitely sold high. Do these 3 trades all work out? Time will tell. The contrast is . Young controllable proven big leaguers versus stockpiling young high ceiling prospects. HUGE CONTRAST! I think he sold high on all three trades.
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Post by borisman on Feb 24, 2017 9:29:28 GMT -5
I didn't like the Neo/Pomeranz trade but couldn't really argue it at the time as there was a need for another starter. I may have taken the option of rescinding the trade when the opportunity was presented due to SD GM being shady. Neo not dominating Low A didn't minimize my expectations of him being a top of the rotation starter. I think he will start to put things together this year and show better results/numbers. He is still very young (about to turn 19!). He's probably the only one we may regret trading, especially if Drew Pom doesn't stop giving up the untimely long ball in his outings or blows out his elbow.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 24, 2017 9:39:45 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton Red Sox v. Mets: Holt SS, Benintendi LF, Ramirez DH, Bradley Jr. CF, Brentz RF, Hernandez 2B, Leon C, Craig 1B, Rutledge 3B, Owens LHP Allen Craig will emerge as the Sox starting 1B by May, and narrowly lose out on winning the AL Silver Slugger award to Miguel Cabrara, due in large part to Moreland taking away at bats in April. Sweltering take?
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Post by rookie13 on Feb 24, 2017 9:55:06 GMT -5
I completely forgotten about Craig. My hopes that Travis will be the starting 1B by the end of the season had erased him from my memory.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 24, 2017 9:57:38 GMT -5
Tim Britton @timbritton Red Sox v. Mets: Holt SS, Benintendi LF, Ramirez DH, Bradley Jr. CF, Brentz RF, Hernandez 2B, Leon C, Craig 1B, Rutledge 3B, Owens LHP Allen Craig will emerge as the Sox starting 1B by May, and narrowly lose out on winning the AL Silver Slugger award to Miguel Cabrara, due in large part to Moreland taking away at bats in April. Sweltering take? Allen Craig definitely has a better chance to be the Red Sox starting first baseman than I do. EDIT: Going through the roster, I'd currently put Craig eighth on the first base depth chart. In some order it's Moreland, Ramirez, Selsky, Rutledge, Travis, Olt, and Witte all ahead of Craig.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 24, 2017 10:37:18 GMT -5
This probably doesn't belong here but... the BR update to their site, now tailored to handhelds, is spectacular. They said it was coming and they meant it. Everything about it is fantastic, the scrolling, the layout, all of it. I'm still speechless about the Internet after all these years, despite having nursed a few TCP/IP networks to adulthood from the earliest days. I never imagined having a universal library at my fingertips. The site has some serious backend horsepower. Check out the dropdown menus for teams and players. Blazing fast: www.baseball-reference.com/
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2017 10:41:52 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2017 11:12:28 GMT -5
I'd argue that one consistent theme with nearly all of the prospects that Dombrowski has traded is that there was a decent chance he was selling high on them. Moncada - strikeout issue, where does he play on D? Kopech - Value is through the roof... based on 3-4 inning stints in the AFL against tired hitters, off-field issues Vic Diaz - bullpen arm that had some helium Dubon - If you think he's a utility guy, but the Brewers thought he could be a starting SS, that's the very definition. Pennington - First full healthy season after TJ. Looked great, but it's entirely possible this is the best he'll ever look (Shaw - not a prospect, but pretty much ditto what I said on Dubon, but with "bench infielder" instead of "utility guy" and "3B" instead of "SS") Espinoza - stuff is electric, but has yet to put it together - will he? (could also go the other way, so more of a risk play than a sell high play) LAJ Basabe - breakout guy in Greenville had great numbers, but a low ceiling. Plus it's remotely possible AZ traded for the wrong Basabe. Wilkerson - Was screaming for a shot in the majors at the time based on milb performance. Likely the highest his stock ever gets. Looks like a big sell high success already. And from the prior offseason: Margot - was possible he wasn't going to hit enough to actualize other tools. Doesn't look that that's what happened. - Sell high failure. Guerra - was more possible he wasn't going to hit like he did in Greenville and that's what happened and then some. - Sell high success that arguably makes the Kimbrel trade worth it, especially if he pitches better this year. Allen - recently drafted and a long way off. Maybe more of a risk play than sell high. Asuaje - throw-in, but stock went way up after trade. I figure LAX Basabe wasn't a sell-high guy. Neither were other guys I didn't mention. Totally agree with this analysis. At sox prospects We show great passion for our guys. Think deepjohn on kopech. That is the fun of reading on the site. But, maybe we go a little overboard. I will focus on the top 4 guys based on sox p site. Those 4 are moncada, kopech, espinoza and margot. The rest of the prospects mentioned I totally agree DD sold high. Moncada I think we and the world were a little over board on him. From the beginning he had the hole in the swing and suspect D. Potentially he can over come both short comings. Pitch recognition and adjusting is VERY hard. Not impossible. So far in the time he was in the organization he had not made much progress in correcting either one . Kopech has no track record to speak of. Limited innings and nothing really above low A. Possibly a future Koufax or very likely a TJ surgery. Still 2 yrs or more away from bigs. Both traded for a young controllable all star starting pitcher. Very hard to find. DD sold very high. I am certainly not an expert, but I see less than 50% chance that either make it. I REALLY hope both make it big time. AE this site has loved him from the get go. Small slight pitcher who has not dominated at low A. High risk high reward. Pomp is young and controllable. Has shown he is a major league ready pitcher with an all star note next to his name. Maybe not the same ceiling. DD definitely sold high. Margot appears to be a decent major league outfielder. No power, good OF. Got in return a proven young power relief pitcher. DD definitely sold high. Do these 3 trades all work out? Time will tell. The contrast is . Young controllable proven big leaguers versus stockpiling young high ceiling prospects. HUGE CONTRAST! I think he sold high on all three trades. Just to make sure I'm being clear, I'm just stating what the "sell high argument" is for these players. Some I agree with and some I don't.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2017 12:54:38 GMT -5
I'm fairly confident that at some point in the last three years, the Red Sox received a trade offer for Owens that valued him higher than he is valued right now. It doesn't mean they're idiots for not trading him (no front office is close to 100% prescient-- the good ones are just the ones who creep up to 51% or 52%), but this idea that it's impossible for a team to sell high is what I'm pushing back on. Teams can and do and should sell high. That's different than what rjr was saying which is that they were dumb for not selling high on him. Not an exact quote, but we've had this discussion 100 times before and that's the argument. I never called anyone dumb. I said it was too bad they didn't cash in the chip when they could have. Then my next post I said they mis evaluated him. I know shocking revelations... but I hardly bashed anyone or called them dumb. No one is going to get things 100% right nor should they be expected to. In a lot of cases it's best to stock pile guys and let things shake out because most won't make it. Truth be told my initial comment was more directed to evaluators here and their feelings than the front office. The cashing in part was more a throw away and it evolved from that in response to the Mookie comparison you tried to make. Doesn't change the reality that the failed development of that group of pitchers (Owens, Workman, Johnson, Webster, Ruby, etc) likely led to the trading of Espinoza or Kopech... think about it... had even one of those guys worked out to be even a reliable back end arm in that time frame then we don't trade for Pomeranz. They likely still make the Sale trade but the organization still has one of those guys.. maybe Carson Smith will be a stud and healthy for a few years and we will get something from Webster and De La Rosa and maybe Owens will still develop into something... that could happen
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2017 13:02:15 GMT -5
I'd argue that one consistent theme with nearly all of the prospects that Dombrowski has traded is that there was a decent chance he was selling high on them. And from the prior offseason: Margot - was possible he wasn't going to hit enough to actualize other tools. Doesn't look that that's what happened. - Sell high failure. This is the only part I'm not really in agreement with. I'm not saying I disagree either but let's see him hit in the majors first. He put up nice numbers in AAA but it was the PCL... hard to trust any numbers coming out of there. I have little doubt Margot is a major leaguer but I do question what type of player he is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2017 13:17:04 GMT -5
I'd argue that one consistent theme with nearly all of the prospects that Dombrowski has traded is that there was a decent chance he was selling high on them. And from the prior offseason: Margot - was possible he wasn't going to hit enough to actualize other tools. Doesn't look that that's what happened. - Sell high failure. This is the only part I'm not really in agreement with. I'm not saying I disagree either but let's see him hit in the majors first. He put up nice numbers in AAA but it was the PCL... hard to trust any numbers coming out of there. I have little doubt Margot is a major leaguer but I do question what type of player he is. Well, his prospect stock did rise though. It's a sell high fail because you traded him in the 15/16 offseason as the lead in a package for a closer when his stock, in theory, would have risen and he could've been used at the trade deadline or this offseason. That was what my problem was with the Kimbrel trade at the time - why are you using all of these assets on a closer? And sure enough they were forced to use Espinoza to get Pomeranz at the deadline. Wouldn't it have been nice to still have Margot around for such a deal?
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