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2017 Red Sox Major League Spring Training Thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2017 14:02:56 GMT -5
Yea that's fair about his stock rising since the trade.
And sure it would have been nice to have him around to trade for Pomeranz instead of Espinoza but then who would the closer have been and when we compare that trade now to other closer trades since then it's a pretty good deal for the Sox.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2017 16:48:53 GMT -5
Yea that's fair about his stock rising since the trade. And sure it would have been nice to have him around to trade for Pomeranz instead of Espinoza but then who would the closer have been and when we compare that trade now to other closer trades since then it's a pretty good deal for the Sox. Wherever else could the Red Sox have found a reliever with a 3.40 ERA and an expensive contract?
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 24, 2017 16:59:08 GMT -5
Yea that's fair about his stock rising since the trade. And sure it would have been nice to have him around to trade for Pomeranz instead of Espinoza but then who would the closer have been and when we compare that trade now to other closer trades since then it's a pretty good deal for the Sox. Wherever else could the Red Sox have found a reliever with a 3.40 ERA and an expensive contract? I'm not going to pretend he had a phenomenal year but overall he was pretty good when used right. If you want to evaluate his year by ERA that's your prerogative regardless of how dumb it may be. You're probably one of those any one can be a closer types anyways so the team would have been better off with Robby Ross in that role.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 24, 2017 17:07:14 GMT -5
That was what my problem was with the Kimbrel trade at the time - why are you using all of these assets on a closer? And sure enough they were forced to use Espinoza to get Pomeranz at the deadline. Wouldn't it have been nice to still have Margot around for such a deal?I am of the belief that, and while I think it is fair to make this point, he paid what the market price was. By that I mean he was in the market, checked other options, and for all we know was told this was the price for Kimbrel or forget it. I think the point of discussing overpays or misuse of resources, is fun to discuss. Full determinations of whether those actually occur can't be made until the future outcomes occur, which of course, are unknown at the time. That is why I am very hesitant to criticize any of his deals.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2017 17:55:30 GMT -5
Wherever else could the Red Sox have found a reliever with a 3.40 ERA and an expensive contract? I'm not going to pretend he had a phenomenal year but overall he was pretty good when used right. If you want to evaluate his year by ERA that's your prerogative regardless of how dumb it may be. You're probably one of those any one can be a closer types anyways so the team would have been better off with Robby Ross in that role. I'd be perfectly happy to have a closer who was "pretty good when used right" if that closer was Robby Ross or some other scrap heap reliever, but we're talking about a guy who was acquired for at least two future major leaguers AND has a large salary attached. Dombrowski paid the price for an elite closer, and Kimbrel hasn't been anything close to that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 24, 2017 20:55:33 GMT -5
I'd argue that one consistent theme with nearly all of the prospects that Dombrowski has traded is that there was a decent chance he was selling high on them. Moncada - strikeout issue, where does he play on D? Kopech - Value is through the roof... based on 3-4 inning stints in the AFL against tired hitters, off-field issues Vic Diaz - bullpen arm that had some helium Dubon - If you think he's a utility guy, but the Brewers thought he could be a starting SS, that's the very definition. Pennington - First full healthy season after TJ. Looked great, but it's entirely possible this is the best he'll ever look (Shaw - not a prospect, but pretty much ditto what I said on Dubon, but with "bench infielder" instead of "utility guy" and "3B" instead of "SS") Espinoza - stuff is electric, but has yet to put it together - will he? (could also go the other way, so more of a risk play than a sell high play) LAJ Basabe - breakout guy in Greenville had great numbers, but a low ceiling. Plus it's remotely possible AZ traded for the wrong Basabe. Wilkerson - Was screaming for a shot in the majors at the time based on milb performance. Likely the highest his stock ever gets. Looks like a big sell high success already. And from the prior offseason: Margot - was possible he wasn't going to hit enough to actualize other tools. Doesn't look that that's what happened. - Sell high failure. Guerra - was more possible he wasn't going to hit like he did in Greenville and that's what happened and then some. - Sell high success that arguably makes the Kimbrel trade worth it, especially if he pitches better this year. Allen - recently drafted and a long way off. Maybe more of a risk play than sell high. Asuaje - throw-in, but stock went way up after trade. I figure LAX Basabe wasn't a sell-high guy. Neither were other guys I didn't mention. Totally agree with this analysis. At sox prospects We show great passion for our guys. Think deepjohn on kopech. That is the fun of reading on the site. But, maybe we go a little overboard. I will focus on the top 4 guys based on sox p site. Those 4 are moncada, kopech, espinoza and margot. The rest of the prospects mentioned I totally agree DD sold high. Moncada I think we and the world were a little over board on him. From the beginning he had the hole in the swing and suspect D. Potentially he can over come both short comings. Pitch recognition and adjusting is VERY hard. Not impossible. So far in the time he was in the organization he had not made much progress in correcting either one . Kopech has no track record to speak of. Limited innings and nothing really above low A. Possibly a future Koufax or very likely a TJ surgery. Still 2 yrs or more away from bigs. Both traded for a young controllable all star starting pitcher. Very hard to find. DD sold very high. I am certainly not an expert, but I see less than 50% chance that either make it. I REALLY hope both make it big time. AE this site has loved him from the get go. Small slight pitcher who has not dominated at low A. High risk high reward. Pomp is young and controllable. Has shown he is a major league ready pitcher with an all star note next to his name. Maybe not the same ceiling. DD definitely sold high. Margot appears to be a decent major league outfielder. No power, good OF. Got in return a proven young power relief pitcher. DD definitely sold high. Do these 3 trades all work out? Time will tell. The contrast is . Young controllable proven big leaguers versus stockpiling young high ceiling prospects. HUGE CONTRAST! I think he sold high on all three trades. I think you could look at it another way. Perhaps it was the Padres who sold "high" on Pomeranz, dealing him when he was at his absolute peak, coming off an all-star game selection. They got a prospect that most scouting publications consider one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, somebody that has a legit shot at being a top of the rotation starter, and they would get the services of this guy for six plus seasons. And honestly and sadly for the Red Sox, I think that's the case. I truly believe this will be the worst trade the Red Sox will have made since Jeff Bagwell/Larry Andersen. Perhaps the Padres sold high on Kimbrel as well, dealing a declining expensive reliever for a potential starting CF with a fantastic glove and a decent to good bat, along with a guy who has a good minor league hitting track record in Carlos Asauje. I was in favor of the deal at the time the trade was made and if Kimbrel had pitched like he had pitched in any of the other years prior to the deal I'd still think it was a reasonably good trade for the Red Sox. Margot wouldn't crack the starting outfield for the Red Sox and was definitely surplus and same with Asauje. I do believe Margot and Asauje will turn into average to above average regulars. I like Asauje, but certainly not enough to push Pedroia out the door. I never really thought much of Guerra and Allen is too far away to have a clue what he's going to be. If he turns out to be good, then it's a bad trade for the Red Sox. Kimbrel closing for them was awful to watch. Even when he was successful it was terrible to watch him go full on every batter and walks the amount of guys he walked. I didn't think he was in decline, but I guess I was wrong. I chalked up his less dominating 2015 season to his rough start with the Padres due to the surprise of having been dealt so late in spring training. I've lived through the Mark Clear and Healthcliff Slocomb closing experiences and I have no desire to see that again! It's not out of the realm of possibility that the ChiSox sold "high" on Sale. Perhaps his best seasons are behind him and not in front of him. He did show some small signs of decline last season and if he gets injured, like a TJ type of injury, given his pitching motion, that two of those three seasons are ruined, so perhaps the White Sox did well to trade him for a potential superstar in Moncada, a young Syndergaard type pitcher, a potential CF down the road, and a useful hard throwing reliever. And yeah, I had to stretch to say all of those things. I do have trouble believing that Moncada's 19 AB stretch should define him. He's young enough to improve and his tools are off the charts. I think he will eventually become a superstar. As far as Kopech goes, he'll goes as far as his control will take him. He'll get away with sub-par control but if he has Henry Owens type of control, he might wind up as a closer instead. I do think Kopech has a shot at being something like Syndergaard, but that's a pretty optimistic Deep John type of view of him. I do like him, though, and think he'll make it as a #2/#3 type starter. I do like Espinoza better than him, though. Basabe could go either way. The risk for the Red Sox would be that he might be the guy who could replace JBJ down the road and he's out of the organization, but honestly I have no real issue with him being dealt. I think in this case Dombrowski made a fair market trade. I personally wouldn't do it, because I don't like dealing prospects the caliber of Moncada, who I do think will eventually become a superstar, and Kopech, in which you're giving up 12 plus service seasons for just three of one guy, who if he gets seriously hurt, you really get very little out of the deal, but I get why they did it and they paid the cost you'd expect them to pay, nothing more and nothing less. You could say the Brewers sold "high" on Thornburg, dealing a reliever with injury history for a guy who will be their starting 3b, a guy who can be their starting 2b, and a reliever whose stuff could make him a Thornburg one day. I wouldn't really say that, though. The Red Sox lose out on a guy who could potentially play SS for them one day if need be, but honestly I think, like Asauje, he's better as a 2b, and the Red Sox have a 2b for awhile in Pedroia. Shaw was definitely the definition of expendable, and Pennington is a lottery ticket at this point. I think Dombrowski did well with this trade. I think the term "sell high" is very subjective, a matter of perception. I think the Sox did not sell high on Espinoza, sold fair market value on Moncada and Kopech, and considered Asauje, Margot, and Dubon, as expendable surplus, players who would benefit another team more than they'd benefit the Red Sox with the idea that the Sox were getting an elite closer (which he could still be but certainly wasn't last year) and setup man. These kinds of deals look bad from a WAR perspective, but if it feels real needs without losing something that was badly needed then it makes sense. I get the argument if so-and-so were around then they could have made this deal, but I think it's hard to prove what other teams would value in potential deals. The Padres obviously liked Margot, but that doesn't mean they would have taken him instead of Espinoza for Pomeranz. Perhaps there would have been another deal out there by another team who would have given up something worth more than Margot (to the Padres) and the Pads might have jumped on that deal instead. That's the kind of thing we never can know.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 24, 2017 21:33:37 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that Margot will hit well enough to be quite valuable. This guy is 21 years old and he's made it to the majors. His contact rate is outstanding and I'm not sure where the idea that he has no power developed. He's slugged over .425 during his time in the high minors. In the very small sample from SD, 5 of his 9 hits were for extra bases. Speed probably plays a part in that, but it's easy to imagine a trajectory like Ellsbury's minus the 32 HRs. That's not too shabby.
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Post by dnfl333 on Feb 25, 2017 7:37:17 GMT -5
What do they do with Rusney?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 8:24:54 GMT -5
The Sox will stick Rusney where he rightly belongs, in a AAA outfield.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 25, 2017 8:54:46 GMT -5
I'm not going to pretend he had a phenomenal year but overall he was pretty good when used right. If you want to evaluate his year by ERA that's your prerogative regardless of how dumb it may be. You're probably one of those any one can be a closer types anyways so the team would have been better off with Robby Ross in that role. I'd be perfectly happy to have a closer who was "pretty good when used right" if that closer was Robby Ross or some other scrap heap reliever, but we're talking about a guy who was acquired for at least two future major leaguers AND has a large salary attached. Dombrowski paid the price for an elite closer, and Kimbrel hasn't been anything close to that. Fair enough but he had 3 terrible outings. One right at the beginning in April, one right in Middle in July and one right at the end in September. Outside of those 3 outings his ERA was 1.56. Relievers numbers can be quickly skewed. He gave up 11 ER in 1 total inning in those outings. the fact those outings literally gave us our first and last impressions plus a reminder smack dab in the middle influences our feelings on his year. I'm not really worried about him being in any type of decline.
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Post by ryan24 on Feb 25, 2017 10:56:02 GMT -5
Totally agree with this analysis. At sox prospects We show great passion for our guys. Think deepjohn on kopech. That is the fun of reading on the site. But, maybe we go a little overboard. I will focus on the top 4 guys based on sox p site. Those 4 are moncada, kopech, espinoza and margot. The rest of the prospects mentioned I totally agree DD sold high. Moncada I think we and the world were a little over board on him. From the beginning he had the hole in the swing and suspect D. Potentially he can over come both short comings. Pitch recognition and adjusting is VERY hard. Not impossible. So far in the time he was in the organization he had not made much progress in correcting either one . Kopech has no track record to speak of. Limited innings and nothing really above low A. Possibly a future Koufax or very likely a TJ surgery. Still 2 yrs or more away from bigs. Both traded for a young controllable all star starting pitcher. Very hard to find. DD sold very high. I am certainly not an expert, but I see less than 50% chance that either make it. I REALLY hope both make it big time. AE this site has loved him from the get go. Small slight pitcher who has not dominated at low A. High risk high reward. Pomp is young and controllable. Has shown he is a major league ready pitcher with an all star note next to his name. Maybe not the same ceiling. DD definitely sold high. Margot appears to be a decent major league outfielder. No power, good OF. Got in return a proven young power relief pitcher. DD definitely sold high. Do these 3 trades all work out? Time will tell. The contrast is . Young controllable proven big leaguers versus stockpiling young high ceiling prospects. HUGE CONTRAST! I think he sold high on all three trades. I think you could look at it another way. Perhaps it was the Padres who sold "high" on Pomeranz, dealing him when he was at his absolute peak, coming off an all-star game selection. They got a prospect that most scouting publications consider one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, somebody that has a legit shot at being a top of the rotation starter, and they would get the services of this guy for six plus seasons. And honestly and sadly for the Red Sox, I think that's the case. I truly believe this will be the worst trade the Red Sox will have made since Jeff Bagwell/Larry Andersen. Perhaps the Padres sold high on Kimbrel as well, dealing a declining expensive reliever for a potential starting CF with a fantastic glove and a decent to good bat, along with a guy who has a good minor league hitting track record in Carlos Asauje. I was in favor of the deal at the time the trade was made and if Kimbrel had pitched like he had pitched in any of the other years prior to the deal I'd still think it was a reasonably good trade for the Red Sox. Margot wouldn't crack the starting outfield for the Red Sox and was definitely surplus and same with Asauje. I do believe Margot and Asauje will turn into average to above average regulars. I like Asauje, but certainly not enough to push Pedroia out the door. I never really thought much of Guerra and Allen is too far away to have a clue what he's going to be. If he turns out to be good, then it's a bad trade for the Red Sox. Kimbrel closing for them was awful to watch. Even when he was successful it was terrible to watch him go full on every batter and walks the amount of guys he walked. I didn't think he was in decline, but I guess I was wrong. I chalked up his less dominating 2015 season to his rough start with the Padres due to the surprise of having been dealt so late in spring training. I've lived through the Mark Clear and Healthcliff Slocomb closing experiences and I have no desire to see that again! It's not out of the realm of possibility that the ChiSox sold "high" on Sale. Perhaps his best seasons are behind him and not in front of him. He did show some small signs of decline last season and if he gets injured, like a TJ type of injury, given his pitching motion, that two of those three seasons are ruined, so perhaps the White Sox did well to trade him for a potential superstar in Moncada, a young Syndergaard type pitcher, a potential CF down the road, and a useful hard throwing reliever. And yeah, I had to stretch to say all of those things. I do have trouble believing that Moncada's 19 AB stretch should define him. He's young enough to improve and his tools are off the charts. I think he will eventually become a superstar. As far as Kopech goes, he'll goes as far as his control will take him. He'll get away with sub-par control but if he has Henry Owens type of control, he might wind up as a closer instead. I do think Kopech has a shot at being something like Syndergaard, but that's a pretty optimistic Deep John type of view of him. I do like him, though, and think he'll make it as a #2/#3 type starter. I do like Espinoza better than him, though. Basabe could go either way. The risk for the Red Sox would be that he might be the guy who could replace JBJ down the road and he's out of the organization, but honestly I have no real issue with him being dealt. I think in this case Dombrowski made a fair market trade. I personally wouldn't do it, because I don't like dealing prospects the caliber of Moncada, who I do think will eventually become a superstar, and Kopech, in which you're giving up 12 plus service seasons for just three of one guy, who if he gets seriously hurt, you really get very little out of the deal, but I get why they did it and they paid the cost you'd expect them to pay, nothing more and nothing less. You could say the Brewers sold "high" on Thornburg, dealing a reliever with injury history for a guy who will be their starting 3b, a guy who can be their starting 2b, and a reliever whose stuff could make him a Thornburg one day. I wouldn't really say that, though. The Red Sox lose out on a guy who could potentially play SS for them one day if need be, but honestly I think, like Asauje, he's better as a 2b, and the Red Sox have a 2b for awhile in Pedroia. Shaw was definitely the definition of expendable, and Pennington is a lottery ticket at this point. I think Dombrowski did well with this trade. I think the term "sell high" is very subjective, a matter of perception. I think the Sox did not sell high on Espinoza, sold fair market value on Moncada and Kopech, and considered Asauje, Margot, and Dubon, as expendable surplus, players who would benefit another team more than they'd benefit the Red Sox with the idea that the Sox were getting an elite closer (which he could still be but certainly wasn't last year) and setup man. These kinds of deals look bad from a WAR perspective, but if it feels real needs without losing something that was badly needed then it makes sense. I get the argument if so-and-so were around then they could have made this deal, but I think it's hard to prove what other teams would value in potential deals. The Padres obviously liked Margot, but that doesn't mean they would have taken him instead of Espinoza for Pomeranz. Perhaps there would have been another deal out there by another team who would have given up something worth more than Margot (to the Padres) and the Pads might have jumped on that deal instead. That's the kind of thing we never can know. Good prospective. I like the thought process. It will be interesting to see how all 3 trades work out. Both kopech and moncada have very high ceilings. Pitch recognition and making adjustments to what the pitcher throws is something I am very concerned with and a big mountain to climb. Not sure moncada can do it. kopech appears to have control issues. Doc Andrews says the tj surgery is more a product of the radar gun than curves. If kopech can not improve his control I see him as a tj prospect because he is trying to make up for the control. Dave is throwing lots of chips in the pot to win some big hands. Over the next 3 years we will see how that works out.
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Post by sittingstill on Feb 25, 2017 11:31:54 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 12:28:07 GMT -5
Looking forward to finally watching baseball today. Took forever it seemed.
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Post by Coreno on Feb 25, 2017 13:09:06 GMT -5
A lot of regulars in there today for the Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 13:13:13 GMT -5
Selsky can play CF? What??
I wish Nesn would just replace Lyons already.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 13:17:26 GMT -5
It's spring training but Xander is in the 2 hole, Mookie in the 3 spot, and Hanley cleaning up.
What a rocket by Mookie.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 13:33:06 GMT -5
Elias showing good stuff despite the homerun. He drops down to lefties, I can see why he fares really well against them.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 13:39:21 GMT -5
Sandoval bunting? Lol
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 13:50:23 GMT -5
Lyons just listed one of the reasons why Stubbs can't be a good leadoff hitter is because he's too tall...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 25, 2017 14:25:35 GMT -5
Selsky can play CF? What?? I wish Nesn would just replace Lyons already. Probably just seeing what he can do out there. There's no reason to think this will be a regular thing. His games played in CF by year: 2011: 0 (28 in OF) 2012: 8 (111 in OF) 2013: 6 (43 in OF; 68 at 1B) 2014: 0 (86 in OF; 14 at 1B) 2015: 0 (36 in OF; 11 at 1B) 2016: 4 (56 in OF; 36 at 1B)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 14:28:43 GMT -5
Just looked weird seeing a first baseman play CF. When's the last time you ever see that? I thought he was a corner outfield defensive player only.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 15:00:07 GMT -5
Joe Kelly looks great as a reliever. Throwing strikes and getting ground balls. What a turn around. Would be awesome to see him find a role finally and see him become successful out of the bullpen...
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2017 15:38:05 GMT -5
We have a Allen Craig sighting!! He gets a hit too, a hit by pitch. Lol
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Post by rookie13 on Feb 25, 2017 15:50:54 GMT -5
That was the most unexpected thing I've ever seen. And he got a hit from the right side! Although the LF probably should have caught the ball...
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 25, 2017 15:55:08 GMT -5
Two quick thoughts:
- Selsky is going to turn out to be a nice under the radar pickup, I think. He's got some versatility and has a reputation of being a high OBP guy.
- Pablo is fairly hard to recognize with all the weight loss. I caught him at the plate today and at first thought it was Rusney Castillo. Definitely wouldn't have made that mistake last year.
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