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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 13, 2017 8:06:24 GMT -5
You guys think it's smart hitting AB 3rd out the gate? Yes I tend to agree with you but it's a lot to put on a rookie. If he's hitting third, then one has to assume they don't expect a rookie type season out of him, thus, expectations are high. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 13, 2017 11:31:32 GMT -5
FWIW, I ran the analyses using Fangraphs' 2017 projections for OBP and SLG (only considering the lineup against RHP): Pedroia, Betts, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Moreland, Sandoval, Bradley, Leon, :runs 5.2300863 The effects are quite small among the best 100 lineups (we're talking 2 runs per year!) But what is consistent: Betts hits 2nd (100%) Leon hits last (100%) Pedroia leads off (~95% -- Bogaerts the other 5%) The 9th batter is the predecessor to the lead-off batter so unless the 9th batter has a better OBP than the 8th batter, I'd rather the weakest batter in a line-up bat 8th. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 13, 2017 11:34:57 GMT -5
You guys think it's smart hitting AB 3rd out the gate? No matter how good he eventually becomes, I think it's prudent NOT to put to much on anyone so quickly. Let him enjoy 6-8 weeks of success this season before increasing responsibility. |
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Post by thursty on Mar 13, 2017 13:27:31 GMT -5
That's more germane to a NL lineup than an AL one; it is true, that *ceteris paribus*, a higher OBP in the 9th spot is more valuable than in the 8th spot (but not by a huge margin).
However, slugging is way more valuable in the 8th spot than the 9th; that's just an empirical statement
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 13, 2017 19:49:21 GMT -5
I tend to agree with you but it's a lot to put on a rookie. If he's hitting third, then one has to assume they don't expect a rookie type season out of him, thus, expectations are high. If they think he's talented enough to hit third in this sort of lineup then they also think he has the type of talent that isn't just going to break under expectations. And if there is any impact from pressure (Which I'm skeptical of in the first place but will consider for argument's sake), isn't it best to push through that in April and May? Also, wouldn't a counterargument to the pressure be that hitting in between Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts is a pretty sweet arrangement? |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 13, 2017 23:37:04 GMT -5
Looking through the recommended lineups, my biggest concern is having some combination of Moreland, Sandoval and Bradley hitting next to each other - which will cause problems in the late innings.
vs RHP:
2B Pedroia (R)
LF Benintendi (L)
SS Bogaerts (R)
RF Betts (R)
CF Bradley (L)
DH Ramirez (R)
1B Moreland (L)
C Leon (S/R)
3B Sandoval (S/L)
vs LHP:
2B Pedroia (R)
SS Bogaerts (R)
LF Benintendi (L)
RF Betts (R)
1B Ramirez (R)
CF Bradley (L)
DH Young (R)
C Leon (S/R)
3B Sandoval (S/L) - or Holt (L)/Rutledge (R)
This leaves minimal moving parts and avoids LOOGY from crushing the bottom of the lineup. I added 'L' and 'R' for Sandoval and Leon as they heavily favor hitting lefty and righty respectively. If someone wants to swap Beni and X, it wouldn't make much of a difference. I really wish this bench had a better RHH 3B (Hwang would have been great) and a LHH C (perhaps Swihart down the road as he's better from the left side)
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