SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 10:46:54 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 10:48:07 GMT -5
What are the chances he makes the team out of spring training?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
|
Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2018 10:54:40 GMT -5
Really rooting hard for Chavis. One of my more fond first round selections in terms of getting the guy I wanted. To echo what everyone else is saying, he seems like a good guy and someone who could represent the team and sport well. Here’s hoping that his hit tool takes one more step forward this year. If he can get from that fringe-average range to average-slightly above, he’d be a hell of a player. What are the chances he makes the team out of spring training? Skipping levels when you have K% and BB% like Chavis rarely works out well. He also need development in the field at multiple positions. I think they’ll take their time with Chavis.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jan 18, 2018 11:00:06 GMT -5
What are the chances he makes the team out of spring training? Better than yours or mine. Less than everyone else invited to Spring Training, with the exception of probably Austin Rei. You wouldn't bring a prospect like that out of spring training to be a backup because you need to get him reps, and Chavis doesn't even really have a position yet. With a good year I could see him being a September call-up, since he'll have to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season anyway.
|
|
|
Post by jthebrewer on Jan 18, 2018 11:08:48 GMT -5
His shoulders and chest look freaking huge! Looks like he's been hitting the gym hard. Hopefully he's been working to maintain flexibility.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 18, 2018 11:10:02 GMT -5
If he rakes this year and their is either an injury or really bad performance by someone like Hanley he could be a mid season call. I don't expect Hanley to lay an egg but if they don't sign JDM it could also create an opening for him but not out of spring training.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 18, 2018 11:10:57 GMT -5
His shoulders and chest look freaking huge! Looks like he's been hitting the gym hard. Hopefully he's been working to maintain flexibility. He is built very thickly from top to bottom for sure.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2018 13:26:32 GMT -5
What are the chances he makes the team out of spring training? Better than yours or mine. Less than everyone else invited to Spring Training, with the exception of probably Austin Rei. You wouldn't bring a prospect like that out of spring training to be a backup because you need to get him reps, and Chavis doesn't even really have a position yet. With a good year I could see him being a September call-up, since he'll have to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season anyway. His chances are nil before you even get into concerns about burning options and service time. There's an argument Rei, for example, has a better chance because they wouldn't care as much about those things with him as with Chavis.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,258
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on Jan 18, 2018 14:05:56 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 18, 2018 15:14:18 GMT -5
What are the chances he makes the team out of spring training? Better than yours or mine. Less than everyone else invited to Spring Training, with the exception of probably Austin Rei. You wouldn't bring a prospect like that out of spring training to be a backup because you need to get him reps, and Chavis doesn't even really have a position yet. With a good year I could see him being a September call-up, since he'll have to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season anyway. He's well ahead of where Devers was last year at this time (AA and AFL experience). No reason to think he won't be called on mid-season should a need arise, assuming of course that he keeps hitting the way he has been lately.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jan 18, 2018 15:35:00 GMT -5
Better than yours or mine. Less than everyone else invited to Spring Training, with the exception of probably Austin Rei. You wouldn't bring a prospect like that out of spring training to be a backup because you need to get him reps, and Chavis doesn't even really have a position yet. With a good year I could see him being a September call-up, since he'll have to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season anyway. He's well ahead of where Devers was last year at this time (AA and AFL experience). No reason to think he won't be called on mid-season should a need arise, assuming of course that he keeps hitting the way he has been lately. Yeah, I find that optimistic but fair. Devers is the more gifted player offensively, and he was also a lot further along defensively a year ago than Chavis is. But yeah, it's also not hard to see Chavis continue to hit and an obvious path opening up -- underperformance at first base, an injury to Devers, something like that.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2018 15:43:28 GMT -5
Better than yours or mine. Less than everyone else invited to Spring Training, with the exception of probably Austin Rei. You wouldn't bring a prospect like that out of spring training to be a backup because you need to get him reps, and Chavis doesn't even really have a position yet. With a good year I could see him being a September call-up, since he'll have to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season anyway. He's well ahead of where Devers was last year at this time (AA and AFL experience). No reason to think he won't be called on mid-season should a need arise, assuming of course that he keeps hitting the way he has been lately. Eh, I wouldn't use a rise to the majors from a player who was a top 10 prospect in the game at midseason as a measuring stick. That aside, I think that while a midseason call-up could be possible, it's not probable. At third base, the Red Sox would probably turn to guys like Hernandez, Marrero, Lin, and Holt first unless they're all injured or playing poorly. At first base, there's a more clear path to PT, but it would still require injury/poor play from all of Moreland, Hanley, and Travis. Swihart might even factor into the equation at one or both positions by that time, depending on what they do with him. Don't forget, the situation would also have to be important enough that starting his clock is worth it. That means nothing short-term like a guy getting hurt for even up to, say, a month. With Devers, he was up to stay when they called him up. With Chavis, it's harder for me to see the path to playing time, unless things fall completely apart somewhere - season-ending injuries and/or players falling Sandoval-level apart. I'd guess that it's more likely that Chavis doesn't make the majors this year than it is that he comes up before August 1 (or at least very long before then). Most likely scenario is probably a call-up in August or September, but that's how I'd handicap the options after that.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 19, 2018 14:20:55 GMT -5
He's well ahead of where Devers was last year at this time (AA and AFL experience). No reason to think he won't be called on mid-season should a need arise, assuming of course that he keeps hitting the way he has been lately. Eh, I wouldn't use a rise to the majors from a player who was a top 10 prospect in the game at midseason as a measuring stick. That aside, I think that while a midseason call-up could be possible, it's not probable. At third base, the Red Sox would probably turn to guys like Hernandez, Marrero, Lin, and Holt first unless they're all injured or playing poorly. At first base, there's a more clear path to PT, but it would still require injury/poor play from all of Moreland, Hanley, and Travis. Swihart might even factor into the equation at one or both positions by that time, depending on what they do with him. Don't forget, the situation would also have to be important enough that starting his clock is worth it. That means nothing short-term like a guy getting hurt for even up to, say, a month. With Devers, he was up to stay when they called him up. With Chavis, it's harder for me to see the path to playing time, unless things fall completely apart somewhere - season-ending injuries and/or players falling Sandoval-level apart. I'd guess that it's more likely that Chavis doesn't make the majors this year than it is that he comes up before August 1 (or at least very long before then). Most likely scenario is probably a call-up in August or September, but that's how I'd handicap the options after that. I don't think we're that far apart on this, but I have a few quibbles. For one, I don't think the pedigree/ranking matters. If Chavis keeps hitting, his rankings will be within spitting distance of Devers by mid season, and if he doesn't keep hitting, there's no reason to even think about calling him up anyway. So I don't see him as any different from Devers in this respect. I agree third base is really unlikely. Devers is probably going to be fine, plus as you point out there's another couple guys who would be better defenders there and already have MLB reps. First base is where I see daylight for Chavis. He's probably very close to passing Travis on the depth chart already, Hanley is... Hanley, and Mooreland is the kind of guy you sign because he's not that hard to push aside if there's a more promising young player on the way. Speaking of which... This is pure kremlinology, but I think that if Chavis wasn't on the 2018 Red Sox depth chart, he'd be in the White Sox system and Jose Abreu would be the Red Sox first baseman. I think Mooreland over V. Martinez hints at the same thinking. Dombrowski has shown a pretty clear MO when it comes to minor leaguers, which is that he aggressively turns them into major league assets either by trading them or by pushing them onto the roster in a hurry. Chavis hasn't been traded yet, so that just leaves the one option. Again, pure speculation, but I don't think it's entirely baseless. And as far as the service time game goes... I really don't think they really care, nor do I think they should care. First off, they're the frickin' Red Sox, they can afford to pay their homegrown talent. Moreover, they're all in on the next couple years. I don't know how they could trade the guys they've traded, sign the guys they've signed, but then hold down Chavis because they're super worried about their payroll efficiency in 2021. They're pretty well committed to not giving a crap about 2021 at this point. If they're in a spot where he can potentially help, they shouldn't hesitate to bring him up, and I don't think they will. If one of Hanley or Mooreland falters, which is not crazy unlikely, I see a ton of daylight for Chavis. JDM would obviously block the path significantly for 2018, but I'm not taking his signing as a given.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 19, 2018 14:26:10 GMT -5
Eh, I wouldn't use a rise to the majors from a player who was a top 10 prospect in the game at midseason as a measuring stick. That aside, I think that while a midseason call-up could be possible, it's not probable. At third base, the Red Sox would probably turn to guys like Hernandez, Marrero, Lin, and Holt first unless they're all injured or playing poorly. At first base, there's a more clear path to PT, but it would still require injury/poor play from all of Moreland, Hanley, and Travis. Swihart might even factor into the equation at one or both positions by that time, depending on what they do with him. Don't forget, the situation would also have to be important enough that starting his clock is worth it. That means nothing short-term like a guy getting hurt for even up to, say, a month. With Devers, he was up to stay when they called him up. With Chavis, it's harder for me to see the path to playing time, unless things fall completely apart somewhere - season-ending injuries and/or players falling Sandoval-level apart. I'd guess that it's more likely that Chavis doesn't make the majors this year than it is that he comes up before August 1 (or at least very long before then). Most likely scenario is probably a call-up in August or September, but that's how I'd handicap the options after that. I don't think we're that far apart on this, but I have a few quibbles. For one, I don't think the pedigree/ranking matters. If Chavis keeps hitting, his rankings will be within spitting distance of Devers by mid season, and if he doesn't keep hitting, there's no reason to even think about calling him up anyway. So I don't see him as any different from Devers in this respect. I agree third base is really unlikely. Devers is probably going to be fine, plus as you point out there's another couple guys who would be better defenders there and already have MLB reps. First base is where I see daylight for Chavis. He's probably very close to passing Travis on the depth chart already, Hanley is... Hanley, and Mooreland is the kind of guy you sign because he's not that hard to push aside if there's a more promising young player on the way. Speaking of which... This is pure kremlinology, but I think that if Chavis wasn't on the 2018 Red Sox depth chart, he'd be in the White Sox system and Jose Abreu would be the Red Sox first baseman. I think Mooreland over V. Martinez hints at the same thinking. Dombrowski has shown a pretty clear MO when it comes to minor leaguers, which is that he aggressively turns them into major league assets either by trading them or by pushing them onto the roster in a hurry. Chavis hasn't been traded yet, so that just leaves the one option. Again, pure speculation, but I don't think it's entirely baseless. And as far as the service time game goes... I really don't think they really care, nor do I think they should care. First off, they're the frickin' Red Sox, they can afford to pay their homegrown talent. Moreover, they're all in on the next couple years. I don't know how they could trade the guys they've traded, sign the guys they've signed, but then hold down Chavis because they're super worried about their payroll efficiency in 2021. They're pretty well committed to not giving a crap about 2021 at this point. If they're in a spot where he can potentially help, they shouldn't hesitate to bring him up, and I don't think they will. If one of Hanley or Mooreland falters, which is not crazy unlikely, I see a ton of daylight for Chavis. JDM would obviously block the path significantly for 2018, but I'm not taking his signing as a given. I have had similar thoughts that I've kept private. It may also be a reason why they're playing hardball with JDM. They might think they don't need him as much as other people think because Chavis isn't far away. With as crazy as baseball has been with the success of young players and the steep decline of many players in their early 30s in recent years, it's not an insane thought that Chavis is better than JDM in year 2 or 3, for 1/50th of the cost.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 19, 2018 17:03:41 GMT -5
Not that I'd project him for a .359 ISO down the stretch, but I get Rhys Hoskins vibes from Chavis. Natural uppercut/fly ball guy with excellent exit velocity, which is a skillset that has found a lot of success at the major league level in recent years. I forget if I posted this before, but here's a nice clip of Eno Sarris (Fangraphs) giving his impressions of Chavis from seeing and talking to him in the AFL: overcast.fm/+H4u-PBjU/1:02:40Audio at the link, should be cued up to the relevant section of the pod. Short version, Eno loves the power and thinks he's an MLB contributor in 2018. Recorded before the Mooreland signing though, so that isn't discussed.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 19, 2018 18:29:59 GMT -5
I don't think we're that far apart on this, but I have a few quibbles. For one, I don't think the pedigree/ranking matters. If Chavis keeps hitting, his rankings will be within spitting distance of Devers by mid season, and if he doesn't keep hitting, there's no reason to even think about calling him up anyway. So I don't see him as any different from Devers in this respect. I agree third base is really unlikely. Devers is probably going to be fine, plus as you point out there's another couple guys who would be better defenders there and already have MLB reps. First base is where I see daylight for Chavis. He's probably very close to passing Travis on the depth chart already, Hanley is... Hanley, and Mooreland is the kind of guy you sign because he's not that hard to push aside if there's a more promising young player on the way. Speaking of which... This is pure kremlinology, but I think that if Chavis wasn't on the 2018 Red Sox depth chart, he'd be in the White Sox system and Jose Abreu would be the Red Sox first baseman. I think Mooreland over V. Martinez hints at the same thinking. Dombrowski has shown a pretty clear MO when it comes to minor leaguers, which is that he aggressively turns them into major league assets either by trading them or by pushing them onto the roster in a hurry. Chavis hasn't been traded yet, so that just leaves the one option. Again, pure speculation, but I don't think it's entirely baseless. And as far as the service time game goes... I really don't think they really care, nor do I think they should care. First off, they're the frickin' Red Sox, they can afford to pay their homegrown talent. Moreover, they're all in on the next couple years. I don't know how they could trade the guys they've traded, sign the guys they've signed, but then hold down Chavis because they're super worried about their payroll efficiency in 2021. They're pretty well committed to not giving a crap about 2021 at this point. If they're in a spot where he can potentially help, they shouldn't hesitate to bring him up, and I don't think they will. If one of Hanley or Mooreland falters, which is not crazy unlikely, I see a ton of daylight for Chavis. JDM would obviously block the path significantly for 2018, but I'm not taking his signing as a given. I have had similar thoughts that I've kept private. It may also be a reason why they're playing hardball with JDM. They might think they don't need him as much as other people think because Chavis isn't far away. With as crazy as baseball has been with the success of young players and the steep decline of many players in their early 30s in recent years, it's not an insane thought that Chavis is better than JDM in year 2 or 3, for 1/50th of the cost. Fenway, I mostly agree with you. However, to just clarify my points a bit: - Pedigree: I say this because I don't think Chavis is nearly as good a prospect as Devers was, and therefore it's a poor comparison. If he keeps hitting like he was hitting in AA, compare his .250/.310/.492 to Devers' .300/.369/.575. Devers was on another universe hitting-wise compared to Chavis. I think Chavis would need to hit better than last year to put himself in the conversation like Devers did. I did a poor job explaining that probably. - First base: As you said, this is where there's daylight, and I think you have a point if he outplays Travis. But he has to outplay him, and I'm not sure that's a given. I want to see how his bat plays at the AAA level. He strikes me as a guy that's going to need reps at that level, as I think the pitchers there are likely to have some success against him at first that will force adjustments. - Service time: This matters because it only makes sense to call him up if he's going to play and is going to play every day the rest of the year. Unless he's a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over what they have, there's no point in calling him up for reasons related to service time and options, etc. They would be stupid to put him on the roster in, say, June because a guy is hurt for a month, or because he might a half-win better than Sam Travis. Maybe there are situations where he's worth adding for a short-term addition, but I think they're unlikely. This has nothing to do with being a team with money or not. It has to do with being prudent regarding years of team control. As for Chavis being the reason they didn't trade for Abreu or are playing hardball with Martinez, I think both thoughts are kind of crazy. Chavis doesn't project to be nearly as good as either. He's projected as a role 5 player - an average regular - and his ceiling is probably a 5.5 or 6 depending on who you ask. He's a nice prospect, and he's probably on the 1B depth chart at least right now, but I don't think they're making decisions at the MLB level thinking "but we've got Michael Chavis, don't acquire that impact player." I trade a package headlined by Chavis for Abreu every day, and I don't play hardball with JDM because of Chavis being around, especially considering that there's no overlap between the two, really. And I do think it's insane to think that Chavis will be better than Martinez in 2019 or 2020. Everyone's acting like Martinez is old - he's 30. It's not like they're signing some 37yo or something.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2018 20:00:58 GMT -5
Chris Taylor Marwin Gonzalez Jonathan Schoop and Aaron Judge. All examples of false projections .Out of these four players only Schoop was trending up the previous years but 2017 really broke out. Taylor Gonzalez in Judge we're not expected to have the years that they did. I'm not saying the Chavis is going to have a year like Aaron judge did in 2017. Pedroia is another example when he first came up nobody believed that he would turn out to be a rookie of the year or MVP look what happened. Dombrowski saw something in JDM when he picked them from the scrap heap from the Astros.Maybe Dombrowski season salmon Chavis.This is baseball where anything can happen anything is possible.
|
|
giltg
Veteran
When the eagle is silent , the parrots begin to jabber.
Posts: 274
|
Post by giltg on Feb 21, 2018 22:44:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 6, 2018 16:58:50 GMT -5
His shoulders and chest look freaking huge! Yeah, hmmmmm.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2018 12:52:40 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 24, 2018 16:47:43 GMT -5
I've always liked the swing, the questions were about a position for him. Good to hear that the defense is better and that he's progressing as a professional hitter. The system isn't great, but it isn't completely devoid of talent either.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Aug 27, 2018 10:32:10 GMT -5
How high an OPS would Chavis have to produce to get consideration for the playoff roster? Say he maintains 900+ for the Pawsox and gets a Sept call up that goes really well? Not like it hasn't happened before. If he out hits Devers by a considerable margin in Sept. what do the Sox do?
Just a thought of something way out there.
|
|
|
Post by keany on Aug 27, 2018 10:39:50 GMT -5
How high an OPS would Chavis have to produce to get consideration for the playoff roster? Say he maintains 900+ for the Pawsox and gets a Sept call up that goes really well? Not like it hasn't happened before. If he out hits Devers by a considerable margin in Sept. what do the Sox do? Just a thought of something way out there. Someone earlier mentioned that he isnt eligible for the postseason because of his suspension. If that's the case, then I don't think it matters too much!
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2018 10:41:20 GMT -5
How high an OPS would Chavis have to produce to get consideration for the playoff roster? Say he maintains 900+ for the Pawsox and gets a Sept call up that goes really well? Not like it hasn't happened before. If he out hits Devers by a considerable margin in Sept. what do the Sox do? Just a thought of something way out there. Would he even be eligible? I know that Robinson Cano is not allowed on the playoff roster for the Mariners because of his PED suspension. I'm not sure if the same rules apply to MiLB players, though I imagine it would.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Aug 27, 2018 10:43:03 GMT -5
How high an OPS would Chavis have to produce to get consideration for the playoff roster? Say he maintains 900+ for the Pawsox and gets a Sept call up that goes really well? Not like it hasn't happened before. If he out hits Devers by a considerable margin in Sept. what do the Sox do? Just a thought of something way out there. Someone earlier mentioned that he isnt eligible for the postseason because of his suspension. If that's the case, then I don't think it matters too much! I missed that, thanks. I do hope he continues to rake. He has really turned his potential around after a slow start to his career.
|
|
|