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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 26, 2019 22:29:51 GMT -5
We're still dealing with a small sample size here but there's some stats that tend to stabilize very quickly (I call them "scouting stats"). My favorite is the Z-contact% which give you the percentage of times when a hitter swings at a pitch in the zone and makes contact and frankly they depicting not a very positive image of things to come for Mike: His z-contact% is 75% and after tonight it'll be even lower. That's not good. To give an idea, the league average hitter makes contact 84.8% of the time, the swing and miss king Joey Gallo makes contact 74.8%. The fact that his strikeouts are in the 28% territory is quite an accomplishment lol. He has to keep drawing walks and hitting for power to compensate for his lack of contact because I'm expecting that batting avg to dip in the coming weeks. I think most people would agree that he could hit .220 and if he hit 25 hr with a decent OBP it would be fine. Pedroia is done. He isn't coming back. That's a big If because he never had a double digit walk rate in the Minors until this year in 12 AAA games (tiny sample size). Re: What makes you so sure that Pedroia is done and isn't coming back? Do you have access to his medical record? Or do you have an arthroscopic background or something? I mean the odds aren't great but still I won't be so unequivocally sure about it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2019 8:16:12 GMT -5
Yeah, he's basically stopped walking in the past 13 games or so (as soon as he came out of the slump). He has just 2 walks in his last 59 plate appearances. 30.5% k rate in that time as well. But it's all been acceptable because he's hitting .286/.322/.500.
I do still wonder how sustainable this is, but it's been great to ride this out as long as he's been doing it.
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Post by patford on May 27, 2019 9:42:11 GMT -5
Yeah, he's basically stopped walking in the past 13 games or so (as soon as he came out of the slump). He has just 2 walks in his last 59 plate appearances. 30.5% k rate in that time as well. But it's all been acceptable because he's hitting .286/.322/.500. I do still wonder how sustainable this is, but it's been great to ride this out as long as he's been doing it. It's near certain it isn't sustainable. Guys don't come up and hit better in MLB than they have in the minors (unless they play for the Yankees). He does have a track record for a pretty good BA so even with fewer walks and a high k rate I think he should be able to keep his OBP around .300.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2019 10:05:44 GMT -5
Yeah, he's basically stopped walking in the past 13 games or so (as soon as he came out of the slump). He has just 2 walks in his last 59 plate appearances. 30.5% k rate in that time as well. But it's all been acceptable because he's hitting .286/.322/.500. I do still wonder how sustainable this is, but it's been great to ride this out as long as he's been doing it. It's near certain it isn't sustainable. Guys don't come up and hit better in MLB than they have in the minors (unless they play for the Yankees). He does have a track record for a pretty good BA so even with fewer walks and a high k rate I think he should be able to keep his OBP around .300. Right, but .300 isn't a good OBP though. If his OBP is around that, he better keep hitting a ton of homers.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 27, 2019 10:21:41 GMT -5
Yes players don't usually hit better over the long run when they get to the show but it does happen. Some attribute that to the overall surroundings but the scouting is better also. Travis Shaw comes to mind. Then just look at the numbers since 2017 and I think their is reason to believe Chavis could keep his OPS over 800, which I would consider the barometer for him at the plate. If he can become league average defensively then the 2nd base position should be his.
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Post by incandenza on May 27, 2019 10:48:12 GMT -5
Yes players don't usually hit better over the long run when they get to the show but it does happen. Some attribute that to the overall surroundings but the scouting is better also. Travis Shaw comes to mind. Then just look at the numbers since 2017 and I think their is reason to believe Chavis could keep his OPS over 800, which I would consider the barometer for him at the plate. If he can become league average defensively then the 2nd base position should be his. I'm on the more cautious side in my expectations for Chavis for the reasons others have laid out above, but to make the optimistic case, he hasn't actually hit better in the majors than the minors. In a tiny sample size in AAA this season he had a 131 wRC+ despite a .214 BABIP; he's at 135 in the majors. In 2018 he had a 151 wRC+ in AA, where he spent the most time, and was actually better than that across three levels. It was basically the same story in 2017. His results in Boston, while great, are about the worst he's had in three years. He hasn't come out of nowhere by any means. I honestly think that people just sort of forgot about him due to the suspension.
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Post by patford on May 27, 2019 11:17:28 GMT -5
Yes players don't usually hit better over the long run when they get to the show but it does happen. Some attribute that to the overall surroundings but the scouting is better also. Travis Shaw comes to mind. Then just look at the numbers since 2017 and I think their is reason to believe Chavis could keep his OPS over 800, which I would consider the barometer for him at the plate. If he can become league average defensively then the 2nd base position should be his. I'm talking about a player instantly hitting a lot better than their track record in the minors with Aaron Judge being the best example of all time. Both for power and particularly for average and Judge wasn't even very young when he made the big league.
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Post by patford on May 27, 2019 11:24:27 GMT -5
Yes players don't usually hit better over the long run when they get to the show but it does happen. Some attribute that to the overall surroundings but the scouting is better also. Travis Shaw comes to mind. Then just look at the numbers since 2017 and I think their is reason to believe Chavis could keep his OPS over 800, which I would consider the barometer for him at the plate. If he can become league average defensively then the 2nd base position should be his. I'm on the more cautious side in my expectations for Chavis for the reasons others have laid out above, but to make the optimistic case, he hasn't actually hit better in the majors than the minors. In a tiny sample size in AAA this season he had a 131 wRC+ despite a .214 BABIP; he's at 135 in the majors. In 2018 he had a 151 wRC+ in AA, where he spent the most time, and was actually better than that across three levels. It was basically the same story in 2017. His results in Boston, while great, are about the worst he's had in three years. He hasn't come out of nowhere by any means. I honestly think that people just sort of forgot about him due to the suspension. One thing about him is he showed a pattern of improvement. Even his bumps down look to be when he moved up a level and then when he repeated a level he would excel and be promoted again. That is a good sign. It's a big red flag when a prospect plateaus.
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Post by terriblehondo on May 27, 2019 13:29:05 GMT -5
I think most people would agree that he could hit .220 and if he hit 25 hr with a decent OBP it would be fine. Pedroia is done. He isn't coming back. That's a big If because he never had a double digit walk rate in the Minors until this year in 12 AAA games (tiny sample size). Re: What makes you so sure that Pedroia is done and isn't coming back? Do you have access to his medical record? Or do you have an arthroscopic background or something? I mean the odds aren't great but still I won't be so unequivocally sure about it. On Dustin on ESPN ticker he has just said he might not be able to play again.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,243
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Post by radiohix on Jul 29, 2019 9:30:26 GMT -5
We're still dealing with a small sample size here but there's some stats that tend to stabilize very quickly (I call them "scouting stats"). My favorite is the Z-contact% which give you the percentage of times when a hitter swings at a pitch in the zone and makes contact and frankly they depicting not a very positive image of things to come for Mike: His z-contact% is 75% and after tonight it'll be even lower. That's not good. To give an idea, the league average hitter makes contact 84.8% of the time, the swing and miss king Joey Gallo makes contact 74.8%. The fact that his strikeouts are in the 28% territory is quite an accomplishment lol. He has to keep drawing walks and hitting for power to compensate for his lack of contact because I'm expecting that batting avg to dip in the coming weeks. Update: No one in baseball make less contact when swinging than Michael Chavis and he practically stopped walking since that hot start, he's also a below average fielder with stiff hands and no range. His only skill is punishing mistake pitches. The Red Sox should sell before it's too late 'cause he'll end up in the Korean League a few years from now.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2019 9:38:58 GMT -5
We're still dealing with a small sample size here but there's some stats that tend to stabilize very quickly (I call them "scouting stats"). My favorite is the Z-contact% which give you the percentage of times when a hitter swings at a pitch in the zone and makes contact and frankly they depicting not a very positive image of things to come for Mike: His z-contact% is 75% and after tonight it'll be even lower. That's not good. To give an idea, the league average hitter makes contact 84.8% of the time, the swing and miss king Joey Gallo makes contact 74.8%. The fact that his strikeouts are in the 28% territory is quite an accomplishment lol. He has to keep drawing walks and hitting for power to compensate for his lack of contact because I'm expecting that batting avg to dip in the coming weeks. Update: No one in baseball make less contact when swinging than Michael Chavis and he practically stopped walking since that hot start, he's also a below average fielder with stiff hands and no range. His only skill is punishing mistake pitches. The Red Sox should sell before it's too late 'cause he'll end up in the Korean League a few years from now. I've felt the same way for awhile now. I'd actually rather move him than Dalbec if it was an either/or scenario.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 29, 2019 9:46:05 GMT -5
We're still dealing with a small sample size here but there's some stats that tend to stabilize very quickly (I call them "scouting stats"). My favorite is the Z-contact% which give you the percentage of times when a hitter swings at a pitch in the zone and makes contact and frankly they depicting not a very positive image of things to come for Mike: His z-contact% is 75% and after tonight it'll be even lower. That's not good. To give an idea, the league average hitter makes contact 84.8% of the time, the swing and miss king Joey Gallo makes contact 74.8%. The fact that his strikeouts are in the 28% territory is quite an accomplishment lol. He has to keep drawing walks and hitting for power to compensate for his lack of contact because I'm expecting that batting avg to dip in the coming weeks. Update: No one in baseball make less contact when swinging than Michael Chavis and he practically stopped walking since that hot start, he's also a below average fielder with stiff hands and no range. His only skill is punishing mistake pitches. The Red Sox should sell before it's too late 'cause he'll end up in the Korean League a few years from now. April/March - .313/.436/.625/1.061 May - .248/.331/.457/.788 June - .259/.304/.426/.730 July - .258/.319/.409/.729 K/BB: April/March - 6/10 May - 11/36 June - 7/45 July - 5/23 It looks like he has been working on cutting down his strikeouts as of late. Concerning, but he is a rookie who was rushed to the majors out of need. Remember, he missed almost all of last year with a PED suspension and before that he had a nasty injury. I think it's actually quite remarkable what he has done this year with everything he had going on with him.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 29, 2019 9:47:05 GMT -5
Update: No one in baseball make less contact when swinging than Michael Chavis and he practically stopped walking since that hot start, he's also a below average fielder with stiff hands and no range. His only skill is punishing mistake pitches. The Red Sox should sell before it's too late 'cause he'll end up in the Korean League a few years from now. I've felt the same way for awhile now. I'd actually rather move him than Dalbec if it was an either/or scenario. Dalbec on base skills are superior, is a better fielder and he just torched LHP (.925 OPS with a 25/30 BB/K ratio).
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2019 10:00:34 GMT -5
Dead last in all of baseball. It would be a mistake to pencil him into the lineup next season and count on getting production from him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2019 10:05:45 GMT -5
I've felt the same way for awhile now. I'd actually rather move him than Dalbec if it was an either/or scenario. Dalbec on base skills are superior, is a better fielder and he just torched LHP (.925 OPS with a 25/30 BB/K ratio). I kind of wish they'd push Dalbec and consider him as a September callup. Dalbec might have the same issues, but I haven't seen him yet and we don't have the plate discipline data from the minors.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,243
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Post by radiohix on Jul 29, 2019 10:22:14 GMT -5
Dalbec on base skills are superior, is a better fielder and he just torched LHP (.925 OPS with a 25/30 BB/K ratio). I kind of wish they'd push Dalbec and consider him as a September callup. Dalbec might have the same issues, but I haven't seen him yet and we don't have the plate discipline data from the minors. He's been playing some first base this past week so my guess is that they're maybe preparing him for a promotion just after the trade line passes. I think, if he's not traded, that he'll see some big league action this year. Add: regarding the plate discipline numbers, SoxScout posted on twitter a few weeks ago that his swinstrk% was 13% while the league avg was 12%. I'll take that considering the patience and power.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 29, 2019 10:58:32 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 25% K rate in AA. Chavis has a 31% K rate in the majors. Dalbec is two months older than Chavis.
Last season, in AA, Chavis had exactly the same K rate that Dalbec has now. Chavis was a year younger, of course.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:01:06 GMT -5
I've felt the same way for awhile now. I'd actually rather move him than Dalbec if it was an either/or scenario. Dalbec on base skills are superior, is a better fielder and he just torched LHP (.925 OPS with a 25/30 BB/K ratio). I mean... in AA they are. Dalbec's profile is so extreme, I still think it's an open question if he can hit at all in the majors.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2019 11:03:27 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 25% K rate in AA. Chavis has a 31% K rate in the majors. Dalbec is two months older than Chavis. Last season, in AA, Chavis had exactly the same K rate that Dalbec has now. Chavis was a year younger, of course. Chavis is still trending down. Since May, he hasn't done anything well other than get lucky with BABIP. Even his power has disappeared.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:08:44 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 25% K rate in AA. Chavis has a 31% K rate in the majors. Dalbec is two months older than Chavis. Last season, in AA, Chavis had exactly the same K rate that Dalbec has now. Chavis was a year younger, of course. Chavis is still trending down. Since May, he hasn't done anything well other than get lucky with BABIP. Even his power has disappeared. ...Which again, should be a reminder to pump the breaks on Dalbec.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2019 11:11:07 GMT -5
Chavis is still trending down. Since May, he hasn't done anything well other than get lucky with BABIP. Even his power has disappeared. ...Which again, should be a reminder to pump the breaks on Dalbec. You don't have to love Dalbec to not like Chavis. I don't really like either player that much, but I've seen enough of Chavis to believe he's not going to adjust enough. I think pitchers with a 95 mph fastball can strike him out 50% of the time by throwing fastballs right down the middle.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 29, 2019 11:26:08 GMT -5
Dalbec on base skills are superior, is a better fielder and he just torched LHP (.925 OPS with a 25/30 BB/K ratio). I mean... in AA they are. Dalbec's profile is so extreme, I still think it's an open question if he can hit at all in the majors. I think when you have an elite Walk rate (15%+) in the high Minors it translates well in the Majors. Take Cavan Biggio as an example: Last year he posted a 17.8% BB rate in the Eastern League and he's now walking at a 17.2% in the Majors.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 26, 2019 11:21:04 GMT -5
Now that the season is winding down was wondering what everyone's thoughts on the kid are. I think it's actually quite impressive the season he's had considering the circumstances that he faced:
1. Drafted out of HS, between the years 2014-2016 struggled immensely out of the gate. 2. In 2016 Chavis played through a fractured middle finger and tore us UCL in his thumb contributing to his 91 games played. 3. Finally started to figure out hitting professional pitching. Promoted to AA were he had pedestrian numbers in AA in 2017. 4. Was suspended 80 games in 2018 for PEDs. Played in 46 games. 5. Did not play winter ball due to a strained oblique. 6. Moved off 3B and started played 2B for the first time in his professional career in 2019. 7. Had played 8 games in AAA during the 2018 campaign and had 14 games in AAA during the 2019 season before being promoted to replace Dustin Pedroia. 8. Is still 23 years old.
Despite first playing professional baseball in 2014 right out of high school, he has accumulated just 448 MiLB games (including winter ball).
His 2019 MLB season has looked like the following: .254/.322/.444/.766 in 95 games (382 PA) 18 HR 127/31 K/BB ratio (that's a very concerning number which I hope will improve over time) 2/1 SB/CS ratio OPS+ 95 WAR 0.9 oWAR 0.7 dWAR 0.2 WAA -0.4
Personally, I'm impressed with him. I hope that the organization continues to stick with him and see if he can continue to develop.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 26, 2019 11:50:58 GMT -5
I fully agree with you. He has done some amazing things for a relatively inexperienced kid. He was considered a bit of defensive liability in the minors, but has largely disproved that by playing pretty good 1B and 2B at the Major League level, despite being unfamiliar with either position. He has shown himself to be both a better athlete and to have more baseball smarts than most anyone expected, as a very rushed prospect and a young, raw rookie.
Reports are that he is a hard worker, coachable, and a dedicated, happy baseball rat. Kids like this are more likely to put in the time and energy to deal with holes in their swing, figure things out like footwork which is a good thing as, like so many before him, he has to go through the learning curve in the Majors. I hope the Sox bet on his ability to adjust, adapt, grow at Fenway and keep him, at 2B. Also, aong with Bogey at SS their RHB fit in perfectly with likely 2020 middle infield utility players and LHB Holt, Marco, Lin.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 26, 2019 14:41:16 GMT -5
I like Chavis as a person. Brings a ton of energy and seems like a super genuine guy, but it does seem like a pretty substantial adjustment is in order for him. After his hot start, he lacked walks and power. Bad combo when you strikeout as much as him. Hope he makes these fixes but it will be tough.
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