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2017 Draft Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 26, 2017 12:49:02 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 27, 2017 5:24:48 GMT -5
I would be leery of drafting Hiura given his arm injury and lack of a position. He also doesn't seem to have enough power to DH. The Red Sox can't afford to gamble with their first round pick with someone like him.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on May 27, 2017 6:54:24 GMT -5
I would be leery of drafting Hiura given his arm injury and lack of a position. He also doesn't seem to have enough power to DH. The Red Sox can't afford to gamble with their first round pick with someone like him. Seems to have good doubles power, but it should be a factor that he's a RHH who likes to go the other way, no? Hiura was batting .416/.558/.701 through May 7, leading the nation in batting and OBP while ranking 16th in slugging. His 43 walks ranked fifth nationally, and his eight home runs already surpassed his previous career high of seven from each of his first two seasons. [...] “He’s a tough comp because who is 5-foot-11 and can hit 60 extra base hits? [[Mookie had 68]] He’s a tough comp, but the bat’s real,” Orloff said. [...] Hiura has an inside-out swing. He works the gaps and his power plays from left center to the right-field foul pole. [...] “He has so much bat speed and sneaky power,” one scouting director said. Read more at www.baseballamerica.com/draft/keston-hiuras-injury-bat-present-unique-situation/#IWr3VJGVcxBtmxQH.99
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 27, 2017 7:05:43 GMT -5
Inside-out swings for RH hitters don't translate well when you play half your games at Fenway Park. Huira's stock appears to be dropping fast as Manuel had him going 12 overall about a month ago. Manuel has the Red Sox picking Seth Romero in his latest mock. Not sure that would be a good pick either given him being kicked off Houston team and projected to be a reliever. He also has the Yankees picking David Peterson. www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#oy4lD7yCMrdVzf0r.97
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Post by iakovos11 on May 27, 2017 14:18:01 GMT -5
Gap to gap power works anywhere, really. Maybe not custom fit for Fenway, but they half their games on the road. I have no idea about the guy, but having an inside out swing with gap to power isn't going to sway me, really. Can he hit? What do they think he can do defensively? Ideally there is a pitcher there they like better.
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Post by larrycook on May 27, 2017 19:46:37 GMT -5
This pick makes perfect sense. Dumbrowski has traded for every sore armed soon to have surgery pitcher that had come on the market, so why not draft a kid that needs surgery as well. Houck Lange White Peterson Or he best high school arm
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Post by jmei on May 27, 2017 19:53:02 GMT -5
This pick makes perfect sense. Dumbrowski has traded for every sore armed soon to have surgery pitcher that had come on the market, so why not draft a kid that needs surgery as well. Houck Lange White Peterson Or he best high school arm You need to stop with the "Dumbrowski" stuff. You've been warned about this twice before. Consider this your last warning. Thanks.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on May 27, 2017 20:17:42 GMT -5
Inside-out swings for RH hitters don't translate well when you play half your games at Fenway Park. Huira's stock appears to be dropping fast as Manuel had him going 12 overall about a month ago. Manuel has the Red Sox picking Seth Romero in his latest mock. Not sure that would be a good pick either given him being kicked off Houston team and projected to be a reliever. He also has the Yankees picking David Peterson. www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#oy4lD7yCMrdVzf0r.97An inside out swing might play well in Fenway as long as Huira is a line drive hitter to the off field. I've always said that to be successful in Fenway, LH hitters need to be line drive pull hitters and fly ball hitters to the opposite field, while RH hitters need to be just the opposite.
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Post by wskeleton76 on May 27, 2017 20:28:28 GMT -5
Inside-out swings for RH hitters don't translate well when you play half your games at Fenway Park. Huira's stock appears to be dropping fast as Manuel had him going 12 overall about a month ago. Manuel has the Red Sox picking Seth Romero in his latest mock. Not sure that would be a good pick either given him being kicked off Houston team and projected to be a reliever. He also has the Yankees picking David Peterson. www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#oy4lD7yCMrdVzf0r.97I am surprised that Austin Beck is available to us in this mock draft.
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Post by Coreno on May 28, 2017 11:54:05 GMT -5
This pick makes perfect sense. Dumbrowski has traded for every sore armed soon to have surgery pitcher that had come on the market, so why not draft a kid that needs surgery as well. Houck Lange White Peterson Or he best high school arm You need to stop with the "Dumbrowski" stuff. You've been warned about this twice before. Consider this your last warning. Thanks. He still doesn't know how to spell Ramirez... I don't think its supposed to be a dig at him.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 29, 2017 14:44:16 GMT -5
Whoever they draft the Red Sox need to do much better at the top of the draft. Lots of big misses the last few years, including Chatham, Rei, Metheny, Rusconi, Denny, Smith, etc. They have little margin for similar mistakes in this year's draft.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 29, 2017 14:59:11 GMT -5
Whoever they draft the Red Sox need to do much better at the top of the draft. Lots of big misses the last few years, including Chatham, Rei, Metheny, Rusconi, Denny, Smith, etc. They have little margin for similar mistakes in this year's draft. Chatham was drafted last year and Rei, Metheny, and Rusconi just 2 years ago. There's no way to call any of those guys big misses yet, especially Chatham.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 29, 2017 15:22:27 GMT -5
Disagree. They all look to be swings and misses. I hope I am wrong,but it doesn't appear so.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 15:39:57 GMT -5
Whoever they draft the Red Sox need to do much better at the top of the draft. Lots of big misses the last few years, including Chatham, Rei, Metheny, Rusconi, Denny, Smith, etc. They have little margin for similar mistakes in this year's draft. I wouldn't call those picks at the top of the draft. After you get out of the 1st round, you're dealing with lottery picks, relief pitchers and org guys for the majority of picks. That's for every team. Even late first round picks seem to have about a 50-50 shot of being a decent mlb player.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 29, 2017 21:00:48 GMT -5
Pearson is #32 on BA list and #38 on MLB Pipeline
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2017 21:10:02 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#PAZ6Zr8HyYhwppVW.97Ehhh... I could probably talk myself into a pitcher with starter stuff but a reliever's delivery at #24, and I could probably get past his attitude issues in a weak-seeming draft, but I can't really get past both. There's a real chance that Romero is a superb bargain for whoever ends up with him, but the risk is just too high, particularly given the current state of the Sox system. Romero is the sort of pick I'd love if they had a high comp pick or an early second rounder or something. .
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2017 22:32:40 GMT -5
Whoever they draft the Red Sox need to do much better at the top of the draft. Lots of big misses the last few years, including Chatham, Rei, Metheny, Rusconi, Denny, Smith, etc. They have little margin for similar mistakes in this year's draft. For what it's worth, I think you might be expecting a bit too much out of players taken after the first round or two. Outside of the top 50, you should be happy if you get a guy that makes the big leagues (see, e.g., www.hardballtimes.com/how-much-is-a-draft-pick-worth-in-2014/, but you can google for plenty of articles on the subject). In the era of draft slotting, you're just not going to see a lot of guys fall out of the top 50 or so who become productive MLB'ers. Take the 2012 draft, the first under the slotting system. The first and supplemental rounds took 60 picks. Seven players have been worth 5 or more bWAR. 16 have been worth 1 or more bWAR. Now, certainly some of these guys are still percolating up (Fried and Kyle Zimmer haven't debuted yet, Giolito & Berrios are likely to pass those marks you'd think). After the 60th pick, you're looking at 2 guys above 5 and 11 more above 1.0 through the 10th round. They haven't drafted perfectly or anything - they had a couple rough drafts in 2012 and especially 2013 that hurt the system in the years afterwards, as we've discussed on the podcast. But I don't think you can expect them to have the 2011 draft class every year or anything. If 2015's draft yields Benintendi and only Benintendi, then it'll be a massive success. 2014 is looking like a very good draft class as well, producing a top talent who helped land Sale, plus whatever Travis, Chavis, Ockimey, Beeks, Shepherd, Cosart, Kemp, Rivera, and Procyshen turn into. The (way, way too early) returns on 2016's crop are promising as well. And yeah, I'm not sure how you can call Chatham a bust yet. On your list, I think Denney is the only one you can fairly call that given that the guy didn't even get out of the complex.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 30, 2017 0:25:30 GMT -5
Hagen Danner from Huntington Beach California? On the one to "Dansby Swanson" scale of 80's movie rich-kid antagonist names, that's a solid 9.75. Billy Zapka all-stars.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 30, 2017 0:48:09 GMT -5
Don't know anything at all about these kids, but looking through the BA 200 I saw a couple names that I thought I'd ask about? 51: Matt Tabor of Milton Academy. Commitment to Elon? Been there and in my personal opinion is probably not worth turning down any kind of money for. 63: JJ Matijevic U of Arizona 1b. Drafted him out of high school 2014 in 22nd round. 111: Donovan Casey: RHP/OF from BC. 116: James Karinchak RHP from Bryant.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 30, 2017 8:17:53 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on May 30, 2017 8:38:30 GMT -5
Wasn't super-familiar with Hiura until last week or so, so I've been trying to watch some videos and read up. My take: there's still skepticism about short guys who drive the ball, and they are still undervalued. Even in the post-Pedroia era, the Red Sox have done well with guys like this - Bradley, Benintendi, Betts (to some extent, though he was also more of a toolsy pick), maybe Chavis. That said, other than Chavis (and including Pedroia), all of those guys had the benefit of being plus defenders, which limited their downside risk. Like Chavis, Hiura really would need to hit to contribute because unlike Bradley he's not going to recoup value when he doesn't. But it looks like he really can hit like that. The injury complicates things some, but when they're picking at 24 "just take the dude who probably isn't a second baseman but who is running up a .442/.567/.693 slash right now and hits the crud out of the ball" is a strategy I'd be cool with.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2017 9:51:50 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd call Benintendi a "plus" defensive outfielder, fwiw. Agree with your overall point though and based on feel alone, Hiura seems like the kind of guy the Sox would love to get at 24.
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2017 10:44:56 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#PAZ6Zr8HyYhwppVW.97Ehhh... I could probably talk myself into a pitcher with starter stuff but a reliever's delivery at #24, and I could probably get past his attitude issues in a weak-seeming draft, but I can't really get past both. There's a real chance that Romero is a superb bargain for whoever ends up with him, but the risk is just too high, particularly given the current state of the Sox system. Romero is the sort of pick I'd love if they had a high comp pick or an early second rounder or something. . Yeah. I have the same concerns. Two times suspended before being kicked off his college team is worrying. As are the concerns that he did not take conditioning seriously in the past. If his upside is a reliever, I'm not sure he is great pick in the first round. May be I am just gun shy or have long memory, but taking a pitcher with the hope helps in the bullpen THIS year (as noted by some) seems as bad an idea now as it was in Craig Hansen's day, which if I remember correctly was the last time the Red Sox drafted a RP in the first round.
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Post by jdb on May 31, 2017 7:33:00 GMT -5
BA had an update on Pearson. Central Florida JC righthander Nate Pearson reached the triple digits in a bullpen session on Monday night. Hitting 100 isn’t new for Pearson, who first accomplished the feat in a bullpen last fall. On Monday, however, the hard-throwing righty cleared 100 and hit 101, with some scouts reporting that he hit 102. Pearson is currently the No. 32 prospect in the class, and he’s projected to go in the first round, though Monday’s performance could drive him even further up draft boards. Read more at www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-draft-prospect-nate-pearson-hits-101-mph-a/#2o13zyE0G8iA0YdB.99
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Post by sarasoxer on May 31, 2017 10:33:05 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd call Benintendi a "plus" defensive outfielder, fwiw. Agree with your overall point though and based on feel alone, Hiura seems like the kind of guy the Sox would love to get at 24. Yeah Beni is a good, solid fielder with an average arm IMO. I think we exploited an initial advantage grabbing talented, small guys. But as once noted, it appears that we are opting to field the All-Lilliputian team. I wonder how we would "stack up" against a team from 1900 or so. Also Pearson throwing 102 and still being ranked at 32 is both startling and reaffirming of the fact that the woods are now full of those once otherworldly guys. Where will the velocities be in 5 years?...10? Like pursuing the 4 minute mile, where is the human limit? Is Sidd Finch on retainer?
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