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2017 Draft Thread
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Post by jimed14 on May 31, 2017 10:39:47 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd call Benintendi a "plus" defensive outfielder, fwiw. Agree with your overall point though and based on feel alone, Hiura seems like the kind of guy the Sox would love to get at 24. Yeah Beni is a good, solid fielder with an average arm IMO. I think we exploited an initial advantage grabbing talented, small guys. But as once noted, it appears that we are opting to field the All-Lilliputian team. I wonder how we would "stack up" against a team from 1900 or so. Also Pearson throwing 102 and still being ranked at 32 is both startling and reaffirming of the fact that the woods are now full of those once otherworldly guys. Where will the velocities be in 5 years?...10? Like pursuing the 4 minute mile, where is the human limit? Is Sidd Finch on retainer? It's just a trick for pitchers trying to make noise before the draft. They're taught how to light up the radar gun. They cannot stay there and cannot command those pitches at all. Then most of them show up after the draft throwing 94 if they don't need TJS before then. It's similar to Kopech hitting 105, yet he's usually sitting 97-98.
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Post by ramireja on May 31, 2017 11:17:34 GMT -5
Don't know anything at all about these kids, but looking through the BA 200 I saw a couple names that I thought I'd ask about? 51: Matt Tabor of Milton Academy. Commitment to Elon? Been there and in my personal opinion is probably not worth turning down any kind of money for. 63: JJ Matijevic U of Arizona 1b. Drafted him out of high school 2014 in 22nd round. 111: Donovan Casey: RHP/OF from BC. 116: James Karinchak RHP from Bryant. Thanks for bringing some attention to some of the top prospects from the Northeast. I like to follow some of these guys with hopes that we nab one or two in the middle or later rounds. Karinchak could be a nice middle round get, although Tabor ranked at #51 seems a bit high based on the scouting reports I read. Matijevic is a guy I wanted to sign back in 2014 given that he didn't have a super strong pedigree out of high school and thought perhaps he could have signed for between 200-300k. In the end, we signed Trenton Kemp and Devon Fisher in that range. Matijevic has now raised his stock although I'm not sure how good he will be. His stats from his freshman and sophomore years aren't great and I believe he moved from 3B to 1B to make room for....wait for it....Nick Quintana. He did improve considerably this year hitting for average and power but he still seems more like a 4th-5th round pick (or equivalent bonus in later rounds) to me.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 31, 2017 15:05:48 GMT -5
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 31, 2017 22:37:18 GMT -5
Don't know anything at all about these kids, but looking through the BA 200 I saw a couple names that I thought I'd ask about? 51: Matt Tabor of Milton Academy. Commitment to Elon? Been there and in my personal opinion is probably not worth turning down any kind of money for. 63: JJ Matijevic U of Arizona 1b. Drafted him out of high school 2014 in 22nd round. 111: Donovan Casey: RHP/OF from BC. 116: James Karinchak RHP from Bryant. Thanks for bringing some attention to some of the top prospects from the Northeast. I like to follow some of these guys with hopes that we nab one or two in the middle or later rounds. Karinchak could be a nice middle round get, although Tabor ranked at #51 seems a bit high based on the scouting reports I read. Matijevic is a guy I wanted to sign back in 2014 given that he didn't have a super strong pedigree out of high school and thought perhaps he could have signed for between 200-300k. In the end, we signed Trenton Kemp and Devon Fisher in that range. Matijevic has now raised his stock although I'm not sure how good he will be. His stats from his freshman and sophomore years aren't great and I believe he moved from 3B to 1B to make room for....wait for it....Nick Quintana. He did improve considerably this year hitting for average and power but he still seems more like a 4th-5th round pick (or equivalent bonus in later rounds) to me. Two other kids that grew up in Mass that might be interesting later round picks? Tyler Wilson, RHP from Palmer and URI and Will Toffey, 3B from Barnstable and Vanderbilt.
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Post by telson13 on May 31, 2017 23:07:43 GMT -5
Yeah Beni is a good, solid fielder with an average arm IMO. I think we exploited an initial advantage grabbing talented, small guys. But as once noted, it appears that we are opting to field the All-Lilliputian team. I wonder how we would "stack up" against a team from 1900 or so. Also Pearson throwing 102 and still being ranked at 32 is both startling and reaffirming of the fact that the woods are now full of those once otherworldly guys. Where will the velocities be in 5 years?...10? Like pursuing the 4 minute mile, where is the human limit? Is Sidd Finch on retainer? It's just a trick for pitchers trying to make noise before the draft. They're taught how to light up the radar gun. They cannot stay there and cannot command those pitches at all. Then most of them show up after the draft throwing 94 if they don't need TJS before then. It's similar to Kopech hitting 105, yet he's usually sitting 97-98. I think that's partly true, but MLB mean velocity for RHP starters has climbed from something like 87 in the mid-80s to right around 92. This source says that's in the last 15 years...not sure where I read the mean velocity in the 80s but the data are fairly similar: www.theatlas.com/charts/S1-DccGC
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 1, 2017 7:16:43 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 1, 2017 10:14:01 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 1, 2017 10:21:30 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#PAZ6Zr8HyYhwppVW.97Ehhh... I could probably talk myself into a pitcher with starter stuff but a reliever's delivery at #24, and I could probably get past his attitude issues in a weak-seeming draft, but I can't really get past both. There's a real chance that Romero is a superb bargain for whoever ends up with him, but the risk is just too high, particularly given the current state of the Sox system. Romero is the sort of pick I'd love if they had a high comp pick or an early second rounder or something. . Yeah. I have the same concerns. Two times suspended before being kicked off his college team is worrying. As are the concerns that he did not take conditioning seriously in the past. If his upside is a reliever, I'm not sure he is great pick in the first round. May be I am just gun shy or have long memory, but taking a pitcher with the hope helps in the bullpen THIS year (as noted by some) seems as bad an idea now as it was in Craig Hansen's day, which if I remember correctly was the last time the Red Sox drafted a RP in the first round. So I think Romero definitely has starter upside. The more likely path is a reliever, and at #24 there's probably not going to be a sure-thing starter on the board. If that were the only concern I'd be fine with it. And if they had another high draft pick I could probably talk myself into the risk/reward calculus. That's why I am okay with the way they took the Hansen risk back in '05. The potential for him to move fast was there, and the risk was nullified some by Ellsbury who was certainly a lower-risk pick (and ended up essentially hitting his upside as well.) It's also hard for me to envision them botching a player's development in the same way they did Hansen's. They got infatuated with the idea that he'd be fast moving and ignored that every single indication in 2006 showed he needed minor league development time.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2017 12:04:23 GMT -5
Just wanted to post here to encourage anyone with draft questions for our guest on the upcoming draft preview episode of the podcast to email them to podcast@soxprospects.com.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Jun 1, 2017 16:20:28 GMT -5
Someone I'm really intrigued by in this draft is Kentucky's Evan White. The profile is so so unconventional: Plus plus glove, speed and athleticism with a compact swing geared for contact and gap power...and he plays 1st base!
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Post by templeusox on Jun 1, 2017 22:13:40 GMT -5
Seth Romero? I'll take David Peterson, Jake Burger, and Brent Rooker over him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 1, 2017 22:25:37 GMT -5
Seth Romero? I'll take David Peterson, Jake Burger, and Brent Rooker over him. At this point I think everyone would take Peterson over Romero. If Peterson's there at #24 I think the Sox would be all over him.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 1, 2017 22:36:17 GMT -5
Seth Romero? I'll take David Peterson, Jake Burger, and Brent Rooker over him. Rooker is a really good hitter, but he is already 22 years old. Maybe we take him at 24 and he signs below slot, which frees up dollars to go after Blane knight in round two and baumann in round three. 1st round Looks pretty thin this year. Only about 20 really good guys at the top, I suspect all the guys we like will be off the board by 24. The high school kid from Louisiana, enlow looks to project as a starter. He should be available at 24.
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Post by borisman on Jun 2, 2017 5:40:34 GMT -5
Seth Romero? I'll take David Peterson, Jake Burger, and Brent Rooker over him. Rooker is a really good hitter, but he is already 22 years old. Maybe we take him at 24 and he signs below slot, which frees up dollars to go after Blane knight in round two and baumann in round three. 1st round Looks pretty thin this year. Only about 20 really good guys at the top, I suspect all the guys we like will be off the board by 24. The high school kid from Louisiana, enlow looks to project as a starter. He should be available at 24. Or maybe other teams ahead of us may do the same thing and take some under slot guys. It happens every year. We may get a good player after all. I think that's the way the Dom does business.
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Post by jdb on Jun 2, 2017 9:51:56 GMT -5
Someone I'm really intrigued by in this draft is Kentucky's Evan White. The profile is so so unconventional: Plus plus glove, speed and athleticism with a compact swing geared for contact and gap power...and he plays 1st base! I'm a huge fan of White. I want to say he's leading the conference in hitting for SEC games which shows he is hitting pretty good pitching not just getting fat vs mid week games when competition is down. I wouldn't mind drafting him and putting him in RF. I think he could handle it.
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Post by jdb on Jun 2, 2017 9:53:34 GMT -5
Seth Romero? I'll take David Peterson, Jake Burger, and Brent Rooker over him. What do you think of Hiura?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 2, 2017 13:31:19 GMT -5
Seth Romero? I'll take David Peterson, Jake Burger, and Brent Rooker over him. What do you think of Hiura? All in on anyone with a plus hit tool, regardless if he has a position or not. If he really is plus and has an advanced approach at the plate then why not in the AL, esp with the dearth of plus hitters in the Sox system right now?
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Post by jmei on Jun 2, 2017 13:46:13 GMT -5
Hit tools are always tough to evaluate. See, e.g., Kolbrin Vitek.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 2, 2017 14:40:34 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2017 15:37:45 GMT -5
Hit tools are always tough to evaluate. See, e.g., Kolbrin Vitek. That was exactly who I thought of when I read Guidas' post. That said, with Vitek, he did have those weird back issues near the end that led to his retirement, so maybe he otherwise would've put it together?........ ok prob not. I also disagree with Law's point about a high school arm. Sox took Kopech (and Chavis) in the first round the year after taking Ball. Maybe having two picks that year changed things, and they did use the latter of the two picks on him, but still, I can't see them passing on a HS arm if he's the top guy on their board just because they took Groome last year. If anything, the dearth of potential starting pitching in the system is so profound that they'd be more likely to want to stockpile arms.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 2, 2017 15:56:49 GMT -5
Hit tools are always tough to evaluate. See, e.g., Kolbrin Vitek. That was exactly who I thought of when I read Guidas' post. That said, with Vitek, he did have those weird back issues near the end that led to his retirement, so maybe he otherwise would've put it together?........ ok prob not. I also disagree with Law's point about a high school arm. Sox took Kopech (and Chavis) in the first round the year after taking Ball. Maybe having two picks that year changed things, and they did use the latter of the two picks on him, but still, I can't see them passing on a HS arm if he's the top guy on their board just because they took Groome last year. If anything, the dearth of potential starting pitching in the system is so profound that they'd be more likely to want to stockpile arms. Wasn't the Chavis/kopech draft conducted under a different management team?
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Post by ramireja on Jun 2, 2017 16:22:57 GMT -5
Hit tools are always tough to evaluate. See, e.g., Kolbrin Vitek. I don't know....I mean I don't disagree with your statement generally.....a hit tool should in theory be more difficult to evaluate than say raw power. But typically when a guy looks like he has one of the best 2-3 hit tools in all of college baseball...those guys end up hitting later on. Its not like teams are regretting drafting Schwarber, Benintendi, Happ, Conforto, etc.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 2, 2017 16:38:46 GMT -5
When people mentioned Senzel last year (or was it the year before), I remember people warning about with Vitek as an example. I think Vitek was just poor scouting.
EDIT: Or his hit tool was certainly overvalued. Which was probably bad scouting - or bad cross checking.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2017 17:11:21 GMT -5
That was exactly who I thought of when I read Guidas' post. That said, with Vitek, he did have those weird back issues near the end that led to his retirement, so maybe he otherwise would've put it together?........ ok prob not. I also disagree with Law's point about a high school arm. Sox took Kopech (and Chavis) in the first round the year after taking Ball. Maybe having two picks that year changed things, and they did use the latter of the two picks on him, but still, I can't see them passing on a HS arm if he's the top guy on their board just because they took Groome last year. If anything, the dearth of potential starting pitching in the system is so profound that they'd be more likely to want to stockpile arms. Wasn't the Chavis/kopech draft conducted under a different management team? I guess the change in GM matters for the first-round pick, and Amiel Sawdaye is in Arizona now, so fair point. That said, I still can't see them passing on a HS arm if one is at the top of their board, just because they drafted Groome last year. Maybe if all things are equal they'll value another player more because he's not a HS arm when they line up their draft list, but again, I'm not sure how much drafting Groome last year will or should affect that.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 2, 2017 17:27:57 GMT -5
Also, Groome was literally the only HS pitcher we drafted and signed last year.....so its not like the system has many young arms aside from our international guys.
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