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What to do about Pablo? (7/14 edit: DFAed)
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Post by Coreno on Apr 16, 2017 14:17:22 GMT -5
Cant cut the team leader in homers
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 16, 2017 14:24:43 GMT -5
"What to do about Pablo" let him keep hitting homeruns
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 16, 2017 14:34:01 GMT -5
His Hard% is high and his BABIP is insanely low. He deserves more time. He is 21st in the MLB in average exit velocity, right ahead of Paul Goldschmidt. He is hitting the ball hard, but his plate discipline numbers are horrifying (swings a ton, misses a ton) and his batted ball profile isn't good either (grounders and popups). There's a reason he doesn't have Goldschmidt's results despite similar exit velo, and it's not purely luck.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,434
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Post by nomar on Apr 16, 2017 15:41:49 GMT -5
His Hard% is high and his BABIP is insanely low. He deserves more time. He is 21st in the MLB in average exit velocity, right ahead of Paul Goldschmidt. He is hitting the ball hard, but his plate discipline numbers are horrifying (swings a ton, misses a ton) and his batted ball profile isn't good either (grounders and popups). There's a reason he doesn't have Goldschmidt's results despite similar exit velo, and it's not purely luck. Oh absolutely, just saying I'm not sure he's as bad as people are making him out to be. He shouldn't play vs LHP though.
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Post by costpet on Apr 17, 2017 8:17:55 GMT -5
I think it's interesting that when Pablo hits a home run, people get all giddy. If you really look at him, he's a liability at 3rd, can't run the bases, and his plate discipline is zero. Sure, he'll hit a bomb once in a while, but he's wildly inconsistent at the plate. Sometimes pitchers get stupid and throw him a strike, but in the long run, he hurts the team in many ways. If he got mildly hot, I would trade him in a heartbeat. Maybe help restock the farm system and use Hernandez or Holt to hold the position for Devers, when he gets ready. I cringe when he gets up to the plate, but find it interesting on the pitches he swings at. Sometimes it makes me laugh. I think the word "entertaining" fits best.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 17, 2017 8:18:13 GMT -5
Exit velocity is proving to be much more misleading and prone to confirmation bias than it is useful measure of anything - it takes one of the least predictive parts of hitting and isolates it. I mean, Pablo Sandoval ranks ahead of Paul Goldschmidt! That alone should make everyone go "hm, maybe this isn't a thing."
But moving beyond exit velocity, Sandoval has a .100 BABIP. If his BABIP was just .267 he'd be slugging .500. Sandoval's in the interesting zone where his current statistical profile says that he's hitting better than his slash line shows, but he's also been not good for so long that there's reason for extra skepticism. I probably keep playing him, because the short-term upside of Brock Holt or Marco Hernandez just doesn't justify making a move.
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Post by thursty on Apr 17, 2017 10:18:52 GMT -5
My logic is something like this:
It's irresponsible (equivalent to let a pitcher hit) to let Sandoval face a LHP in any situation that matters -> So that makes Sandoval the long end of a 2/3 platoon -> But he's about the worst possible candidate for a part-time player (positional restrictions, poor defense, poor baserunning, split penalty, big contract, the fact that Hernandez is a LHH) -> Best to eat the contract.
All of the BABIP, EV #s are focusing on him against RHP, and don't deal with the salient issue that if he's a viable player at all, it's only aginst RHP.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2017 10:35:04 GMT -5
But he's about the worst possible candidate for a part-time player (positional restrictions, poor defense, poor baserunning, split penalty, big contract, the fact that Hernandez is a LHH) This is the part of the logic that I don't follow. Lack of positional flexibility and the lack of a RHH 3B to pair with him are valid points, but I'm not sure why the other characteristics make him a poor candidate to be a part-time player.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 17, 2017 10:57:32 GMT -5
If a bench player had all of those qualities he'd be a starter.
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Post by thursty on Apr 17, 2017 11:27:18 GMT -5
But he's about the worst possible candidate for a part-time player (positional restrictions, poor defense, poor baserunning, split penalty, big contract, the fact that Hernandez is a LHH) This is the part of the logic that I don't follow. Lack of positional flexibility and the lack of a RHH 3B to pair with him are valid points, but I'm not sure why the other characteristics make him a poor candidate to be a part-time player. I'm not sure what's confusing about it; I'm referring to the 1/3 part, i.e. when Sandoval isn't starting. In those games, he offers no value (defensive substitution, pinch running, etc); imagine a Byron Buxton-type player; one can thought-experiment a scenario where he got 0 PAs, but still provided positive value. If such an imaginary player is a 10 on some part-time player value scale, Pablo is a zero.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2017 11:52:20 GMT -5
On days where he isn't starting, Sandoval would still offer pinch-hitting value. Most platoon players aren't both viable pinch-hitters and defensive replacement/pinch-runners on their days off (as mentioned, if they were, they'd be the full-time starter), so I don't see that as much of a flaw.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 17, 2017 16:49:00 GMT -5
Hey it's April 17!!! Pablo has a long, successful history and he is young. Hit him lh and he will be productive. His strength work has helped him drive the ball. Get him calmed down at the plate, keep his weight down and he will be valuable.
I love Greg Bird of the Yankees and he is hitting .138...below Pablo. Cut some slack.
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Post by patford on Apr 19, 2017 17:02:43 GMT -5
Currently leads the team in home runs and runs batted in.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 19, 2017 20:30:18 GMT -5
Currently leads the team in home runs and runs batted in. Well he is also leading the team in errors too.
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Post by dmaineah on May 2, 2017 12:22:09 GMT -5
The Sox sure could use a 3B. To bad Shaw is in Milwaukee. Meanwhile... Thornburg is nowhere to be found
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Post by jdb on May 5, 2017 14:54:20 GMT -5
Has anyone seen a recent update on Brett Lawrie? Is he going to play at all this year?
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Post by dnfl333 on May 5, 2017 18:56:04 GMT -5
Sandoval was worth waiting on for this year. It's evident now, he is finished or at least finished in Boston.
Include the buyout your still on the hook for 41 million. Can you get him back on the field and lure a NL league Team to bite if you eat say 30 million?
Devers June 1st? Old friend Jed Lowrie, Frazier in Chicago?
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Post by templeusox on May 8, 2017 7:57:15 GMT -5
If/When Pittsburgh goes into sell mode, Josh Harrison would be a good stop-gap for Pablo.
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2017 19:33:11 GMT -5
If/When Pittsburgh goes into sell mode, Josh Harrison would be a good stop-gap for Pablo. Did you see they just lost Taillon to surgery for suspected testicular cancer? That guy, man...he's had one hell of a rough ride these last few years. Somebody I've rooted for since he was drafted, and will now even more. And that team...so much promise two years ago and now they look like a blow-up candidate.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2017 12:22:54 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 15, 2017 12:29:21 GMT -5
I just want to stop talking about Pablo. OK. I'm burying my head in the sand and ignoring this problem. Lala lala lala lala lala lala lala lala
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2017 12:39:28 GMT -5
In the near term, if you take Devers out of the equation (per Dombrowski's suggestions that he's not MLB-ready yet), even if you think Sandoval is a replacement-level (or worse?) player, I'm not sure some combination of Rutledge and Marrero is meaningfully better. So they're likely to do what they've been doing in terms of cobbling together L/R and offense/defense matchups to do the best with what they have.
In the slightly longer-term, I don't think you'll find many folks who genuinely think they should stick with Sandoval. But trade season won't heat up for at least a few more weeks, and they apparently don't want to call up Devers yet, so I suspect we'll see another few weeks of Sandoval. But his time is definitely ticking.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2017 12:48:33 GMT -5
In the near term, if you take Devers out of the equation (per Dombrowski's suggestions that he's not MLB-ready yet), even if you think Sandoval is a replacement-level (or worse?) player, I'm not sure some combination of Rutledge and Marrero is meaningfully better. So they're likely to do what they've been doing in terms of cobbling together L/R and offense/defense matchups to do the best with what they have. In the slightly longer-term, I don't think you'll find many folks who genuinely think they should stick with Sandoval. But trade season won't heat up for at least a few more weeks, and they apparently don't want to call up Devers yet, so I suspect we'll see another few weeks of Sandoval. But his time is definitely ticking. Dombrowski's suggestion that he's not MLB-ready should be taken with a grain of salt. He won't say anything different than that until he actually calls him up and that requires actually making the decision to send Pablo packing. I doubt they even ask him to report to AAA when it happens.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2017 12:51:36 GMT -5
In the near term, if you take Devers out of the equation (per Dombrowski's suggestions that he's not MLB-ready yet), even if you think Sandoval is a replacement-level (or worse?) player, I'm not sure some combination of Rutledge and Marrero is meaningfully better. So they're likely to do what they've been doing in terms of cobbling together L/R and offense/defense matchups to do the best with what they have. In the slightly longer-term, I don't think you'll find many folks who genuinely think they should stick with Sandoval. But trade season won't heat up for at least a few more weeks, and they apparently don't want to call up Devers yet, so I suspect we'll see another few weeks of Sandoval. But his time is definitely ticking. "He might not be enough worse than a Josh Rutledge/Deven Marrero platoon to make a substantial difference" is the most damning indictment of a player I've ever heard... Sandoval is almost certainly worse than Jhonny Peralta who is a free agent and could be had for at or near the league minimum today. It's crazy because it's been three years since Peralta was good, but that's where they are.
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KB24
Rookie
Posts: 147
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Post by KB24 on Jun 15, 2017 14:27:01 GMT -5
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