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Post by thursty on Apr 30, 2017 12:46:24 GMT -5
The assumption is that this year's team is a run-prevention powerhouse; obviously pitching is a large part of that - defense the other.
The left-side of the infield is a disaster, and it's not just 3B (although it's pretty clear that Sandoval is a 3B in name only); I don't see how the Red Sox can sign Bogaerts long-term with an expectation that he stays at SS (although Dombrowski has traded away the most likely internal replacements).
And Moreland so far looks like he was gifted the Derek Jeter Gold Glove at 1B (except Moreland couldn't have won it for his offense).
The Statcast catch probability data for 2017 is finally available, and I'll try to update my BHAA stats periodically throughout the season.
Defense is to baseball as comparative advantage is to economics - eyes and intuition are not to be trusted
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 30, 2017 12:58:25 GMT -5
At the moment it is a important topic. Of course, over 162 games this should still be an overall strength for the team. There are reasons for concern, but not panic, just yet.
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Post by thursty on Apr 30, 2017 13:07:51 GMT -5
Here are the catch probability data available through 29 April (it's not clear exactly the period covered however) It's a melange of players (Red Sox, AL East, the putative best and worst, et al); obviously caveats about SS apply (we're talking about 15-25 BIP) +/- is an aggregate (counting) state B(all)H(awk)A(bove)A(verage) is a rate stat | Player |
+/-
| BHAA
(100 = MLB Average)
| | Betts | +2.5 | 127 | | Bradley | +1.8 | 125 | | Benintendi | -5.4 | 65 | | Hamilton | +3.4 | 125 | | Kiermaier | +4.8 | 128 | | Inciarte | +2.8 | 120 | | Herrera | +4.5 | 140 | Buxton
| +4.5 | 131 | | Jones | -1.7 | 83 | | Ellsbury | -1.2 | 90 | | Pillar | -0.9 | 94 | | Margot | +3.2 | 118 | | Cain | +2.2 | 119 | | Broxton | +1.9 | 119 | | Trumbo | -1.5 | 77 | | Kemp | -1.4 | 68 | | McCutchen | +0.5 | 104 | | Bautista | -4.5 | 71 |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 30, 2017 13:33:37 GMT -5
There are no defensive stats that are anywhere close to meaningful at this point of the season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2017 21:15:35 GMT -5
There are no defensive stats that are anywhere close to meaningful at this point of the season. This. Bogaerts is currently 7th among SS in MLB in UZR/150. He's almost exactly league average in BR's range factor. |
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Post by telson13 on Apr 30, 2017 22:44:02 GMT -5
I'm still dreaming on Devers continuing to progress defensively and answering the 3b problem by year's end.
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Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2017 8:21:49 GMT -5
I'm still dreaming on Devers continuing to progress defensively and answering the 3b problem by year's end. It's an outside possibility, because he's good and because they seem pretty aggressive with promotions these days. But he's scuffling a little bit at Portland (7 for his last 37), and he's not the sort of player I'd want to skip over Triple-A. He has to be added to the 40-man this winter though, so I really wouldn't be shocked to see him in September. |
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Post by telson13 on May 1, 2017 18:24:40 GMT -5
I'm still dreaming on Devers continuing to progress defensively and answering the 3b problem by year's end. It's an outside possibility, because he's good and because they seem pretty aggressive with promotions these days. But he's scuffling a little bit at Portland (7 for his last 37), and he's not the sort of player I'd want to skip over Triple-A. He has to be added to the 40-man this winter though, so I really wouldn't be shocked to see him in September. That's my hope. I think he's probably a year-per-level guy, but I'm hoping he gets a shot this fall, mostly because I don't think they're likely to have better options, and I think a (relatively) early debut will enhance, rather than impede, his development. He seems to be an early-season scuffler (and Portland is pretty brisk in April, meaning sub-optimal hitting conditions), so I'm not sweating the cold streak. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2017 9:17:59 GMT -5
The defense wouldn't be what keeps him from Boston. Not sure why the story that he's not a good defender continues to exist.
It's just normal progression at the plate, really. He's the second-youngest player in the Eastern League and sixth-youngest in Double-A. He'd still be among the 10 youngest players in the Carolina League, which I find kind of crazy.
He's still a pup and needs time to develop fully, even if the bat is special.
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