2017 Rule 5 Watch (Update: Beeks, Buttrey, Shepherd added)

It would be interesting to follow those who were selected in the 2016 Rule 5 to see how many are still on the ML rosters.

Travis is obvious. He could practically go 0-for the rest of the season and they'd protect him. And it's worth mentioning that Devers is also eligible but similarly obvious.

Longhi is close enough that they probably need to protect him, but he can play himself out of it (not that I think he will).

Then there's a list of guys they'll either protect or trade: Tavarez, Beeks, Callahan, Shepherd, Cosart

Buttrey I could see falling victim to the numbers game depending on how many guys get traded or stick around.

Mars could play his way onto one of the above lists but I could see them not minding him being picked thinking he wouldn't stick.

They will not protect Stankiewicz unless things change for him drastically. I don't think they'll protect Maddox.

Darwinzon Hernandez, as a LHP, strikes me as a REAL interesting case. I absolutely could see him getting picked. Young, hard-throwing, LHP who you could stick in the bullpen is a R5 prototype.

Ball.... yeah I've got no idea what to tell you on that one. Gun to my head right now, they expose him, but it depends entirely on what he does this year.

Other names worth mentioning: Gerson Bautista (I could see him getting popped and could also see him pitching his way into getting protected), Tzu-Wei Lin (could see him playing his way into either), Jeremy Rivera (depending what level he returns to and how he hits, super-longshot for either scenario, but if he comes back and mashes for 3/4 of a season...).

And as you can see if you go to Jerez's player page, he is indeed a free agent. They wouldn't protect him anyway - exposing a player to waivers when you DFA him is "worse" than exposing him to R5 because it's harder for another team to keep a R5 player than a guy they get on waivers. That's the point we make often in these discussions - sometimes it's not "protect vs. risk R5 selection" but "risk DFA waivers because we need the roster spot vs. risk R5 selection" that makes the decision on guys.

But yeah, that's 17 guys in consideration by my count. This is going to be VERY interesting.

I counted Tavarez. He's in the list in my third graf. I'm gonna go back and bold names to make it easier.

Glad I started this with the chance to let the experts chime in.

Hernandez is going to be interesting. I don't have a good enough memory to remember if Sox try to avoid moving guys up (eg to Salem for Hernandez) to try to decrease chance he's picked.

I tend to agree on all those RHP/RPs, no one will burn you. Ball and Beeks are the interesting cases. Beeks because he could stick, and Ball because when do you stop dreaming on 'what if'? The people who think Ball might succeed as a SP probably are waiting for Owens to gain that 5 mph velo many predicted.

From afar and uninformed (hey it's the internet) I don't see Longhi or Mars being added.

To be clear, that was (derisively) referring to the talk four years ago when to many he was still a 'future ace' in Greenville...

Searching for "henry owens mph" or "henry owens ace" on twitter pre-2014 is fun. Also just to make everyone sad re: Ball...

Mike Andrews‏
@mikeandrewssp
Top left-handed pitcher in the draft. Very athletic. Similar to current #RedSox prospect Henry Owens, but with a better fastball.

That analysis certainly needs to be done, but I think the problem with doing it now is that - as you start to get to - there are a ton of variables that we can't be certain of.

I think it's more likely they leave Castillo unprotected. If someone picks him then they can address their fourth outfielder situation with a cheaper alternative. That's one nice thing about the Rule 5 draft being so early in the offseason.

Cosart, Hernandez, and Bautista are all players I could see a team having a good report on, taking, and trying to stash for a year. Certainly wouldn't do their development any good - particularly for Hernandez, who is the one of the three who I could squint and see a starter. But to get there he needs 120 innings, not to be used three times by the Twins in April, followed by six weeks on the DL, followed by pitching twice more in three weeks, rinse, repeat. But I agree the Red Sox don't add them, given the roster constraints.

Good points all. You're right that you'd probably want a team to take Castillo's salary off of you.

What about Edgar Olmos? He's been pitching very well for Pawtucket & would be worth hanging onto in my opinion. Also Bryce Brentz if he keeps hitting the way he has been the last month & a half.

People are gonna be mad when Brentz is hitting 40 HR for the Rays next year. 












(fun trolling)

Just to update, we now think Darwinzon fits the same loophole that the Basabes did last year. He signed 2 days after the DSL regular season ended. The question is whether playoffs count. We're going to look into this, but our thoughts are that if the playoffs count, they'd just have waited the few more days or weeks or whatever at that point.