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2017 Rule 5 Watch (Update: Beeks, Buttrey, Shepherd added)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 21, 2017 10:20:30 GMT -5
New rule - you can complain about picking Trey Ball over Austin Meadows if you saw both play before the draft.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 21, 2017 10:34:54 GMT -5
Old friends added elsewhere included Mauricio Dubon in Milwaukee, Gerson Bautista for NYM, & LAX Basabe for CWS
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 21, 2017 11:39:40 GMT -5
Among those not added elsewhere: Nick Longhi, who got Tommy John in August that probably saved the Reds that 40-man spot.
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Post by nonothing on Nov 21, 2017 11:41:44 GMT -5
Wrong in my prediction. My reasoning for disagreeing with the latter 2 moves still stands. We'll see how it shakes out. By adding both Buttrey and Shepherd I'm going to assume that DD expects to be throwing in a reliever as part of an upcoming deal and wants to preserve depth after the fact. As his MO with the Sox is to make 3 for 1 type trades the lack of space on the 40 man is probably very temporary. Hope so. This is what they should be doing. We have a lot of high quality major league relief options, and we should deal from them for younger players or in package for an impact player. Just wished he would have done some dealing as Mariners, Yankees, Rangers and A's did before last night. The smart guys take advantage of that window to improve their systems when backs are against the wall to pick slots. Some of the lesser squads in particular would love some of our players vs protecting some of there lesser guys. And we do not have the worst system in baseball. We may not be where we were, but if you add in our AAAA guys, our system is ok, just not strong. The Thornburg deal was a head scratcher though. Really, really hurt. Even if Thornburg turns out great, Shaw was a player they never should have had to package with a bunch of other guys to move. If they dealt him to CLE for Bauer with some other guys on both sides -- something like that might have made sense last offseason. But he was worth a ton, and I never understood that move. Our MLB roster and 40 man would have been a lot stronger. Awful deal. And yes, I think people know a guy has to stick all year on MLB roster. And yes, relievers seem easiest to do that with. On the other hand -- I think you could try Barfield in that role, esp on AL team. Totally worth a pick by somebody. He is older and more mature and from MLB family -- he could stick. Will be surprised if nobody tries. Are we sure he is not a minor league FA? I thought I saw that at one point, and then maybe this might make sense. But on this site, he shows and minor league FA next year and only rule 5 eligible this year. Is that definitely correct? Thanks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 21, 2017 11:44:27 GMT -5
nonothing, I don't necessarily agree that there was any reason to rush to trade guys last night. Other teams, if they want to trade for guys in the Red Sox system, can then just DFA the guys they added.
The fact that the Red Sox added these three guys to hit 40 says to me that they like them better than other guys already on the 40-man, because we know they're going to add players and they're going to need to make room for them somehow. But note that RP isn't the only area of redundancy - Holt/Hernandez/Marrero/Lin all are kind of the same, except that the latter two can play short and the former two can't really. Not sure you need all four of them, especially once Pedroia comes back.
Also, they re-signed Barfield before he hit free agency this year, if you look at the transactions. So you're right that he would have been a FA. My guess is he got an NRI.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2017 11:06:14 GMT -5
Wrong in my prediction. My reasoning for disagreeing with the latter 2 moves still stands. We'll see how it shakes out. By adding both Buttrey and Shepherd I'm going to assume that DD expects to be throwing in a reliever as part of an upcoming deal and wants to preserve depth after the fact. As his MO with the Sox is to make 3 for 1 type trades the lack of space on the 40 man is probably very temporary. Indeed, I think Hembree's a goner, and he may go just for an interesting prospect. He's arguably the 16th best pitcher on the current roster, behind both Workman and Maddox, and there are so many guys behind him (Taylor, Shepherd, Buttrey, Elias; Velasquez, Beeks ... Owens) that you don't need him for depth. The only way he makes the team on merit out of ST is if two more guys besides E-Rod and Thornburg go on the DL. OTOH, as a hard thrower who has been inconsistent he's precisely the sort of guy that teams without our depth will be interested in. Speaking of depth, even if you trade him, if everyone is healthy coming out of ST there's only one roster spot for either Workman or Maddox. Once E-Rod is healthy, it's zero, and if Thornburg gets healthy and no one else is hurt, in theory then you'd have to option Barnes or deal Johnson. If the team is unusually healthy, you'll see guys going on the DL for very minor problems (or "problems") to manage this. The other easy guy to subtract is Jerez. By adding him to the roster you've shown organizational interest in him, and if and when you DFA him other teams will be less likely to claim him, as they'll all be jugggling their 40 spots themselves. By preventing him from going to free agency, they've upped the odds of him staying in the system significantly. As you say, DDo likes many-for-one trades, so the other reason Jerez would survive is if one of those happened for someone like Bour (or Abreu). It's hard to think of who else they'd be trading for other than a 1B. And that they filled to 40 suggests that they're expecting to add just 2 guys at most. I'm onboard with waiting till July to add a LHR.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2017 14:39:52 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 28, 2017 15:50:52 GMT -5
Interesting the Reds traded Boston.. What amount was it? like 1.5m in IFA slot value for longhi and then left him unprotected.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2017 17:18:27 GMT -5
Interesting the Reds traded Boston.. What amount was it? like 1.5m in IFA slot value for longhi and then left him unprotected. As I mentioned above, he had Tommy John surgery in August. That likely left them more confident that he wouldn't get picked. He might've been somewhat borderline anyway.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 1, 2017 8:51:03 GMT -5
Is Shepard going to be a starter this year?
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Post by Addam603 on Dec 1, 2017 9:09:55 GMT -5
Is Shepard going to be a starter this year? That’s the plan.
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Post by jondrink on Dec 1, 2017 9:31:37 GMT -5
Actually Longhi got the Red Sox 2.75M in IFA cap money!
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Post by ramireja on Dec 4, 2017 19:16:50 GMT -5
Here is a list of KATOH's (a projection system) favorite Rule 5-elgible prospects. The Red Sox didn't have a single position player make the list, but I was surprised to see that five of our pitching prospects were listed. They are: - Teddy Stankiewicz - Kevin McAvoy - Trey Ball - Darwinzon Hernandez - Dedgar Jimenez Please keep in mind, this list by no means is meant to predict who will be selected. KATOH is largely based off of statistical performance and age advancement by level. So while Dedgar performed well statistically last year as a 21-year-old in Salem/Portland, I can't see a team selecting a guy who has barely reached AA and has a fastball that sits in the high 80s. Also, please note that Hernandez was included in this list but I believe this is an error as he shouldn't be eligible until next year's Rule 5 draft.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2017 10:41:17 GMT -5
Yup, as I discussed with Chris (the article's author) on Twitter yesterday, Darwinzon is not Rule 5 eligible. Weird loophole in the rule that because he was signed on August 26, he basically gets an extra year (same thing that tripped us up with the Basabes last year ... fool me once, etc.!) because the DSL regular season was over. Kind of makes you wonder why teams don't wait two months with more IFAs to sign their deals - is it worth getting them into the academy 2 months sooner versus having another year before they're Rule 5 eligible?
FWIW, I don't think any of those guys will get selected, and I really dislike KATOH as anything more than a curiosity.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 8, 2017 14:44:24 GMT -5
Moved Owens discussion (from this thread among others) to the Henry Owens thread.
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Post by Addam603 on Dec 14, 2017 9:54:45 GMT -5
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Post by azblue on Dec 14, 2017 10:17:54 GMT -5
That tweet refers to the second round pick of the Red Sox, not the second pick in the AAA round of the draft
Major League phase
Round 1 1. Tigers: OF Victor Reyes (D-backs) 2. Giants: RHP Julian Fernandez,(Rockies) 3. Phillies: RHP Nick Burdi (Twins) 4. White Sox: OF Carlos Tocci (Phillies) 5. Reds: RHP Brad Keller (D-backs) 6. Mets: RHP Burch Smith (Rays) 7. Braves: RHP Anyelo Gomez (Yankees) 8. Pirates: RHP Jordan Milbrath (Indians) 9. Orioles: LHP Nestor Cortes (Yankees) 10. Marlins: RHP Elieser Hernandez (Astros) 11. Mariners: IF Mike Ford (Yankees) 12. Angels: RHP Luke Bard (Twins) 13. Twins: RHP Tyler Kinley (Marlins) 14. D-backs: RHP Albert Suarez (Giants) 15: Astros: LHP/OF Anthony Gose (Rangers)
Round 2 16. Orioles: RHP Pedro Araujo (Cubs) 17. Marlins: RHP Brett Graves (A's)
Round 3 18. Orioles: RHP Jose Mesa (Yankees)
Triple-A phase
Round 1 1. Giants: RHP Eduardo Rivera (Reds) 2. White Sox: C Yermin Mercedes (Orioles) 3. Reds: 3B Mitch Nay (Blue Jays) 4. Mets: 2B Andrew Ely (Cubs) 5. Padres: LHP Jose Medina (Mets) 6. Braves: 1B Skyler Ewing (Giants) 7. A's: Brallan Perez (Orioles) 8. Pirates: RHP Damien Magnifico (Angels) 9. Orioles: C Martin Cervenka (Giants) 10. Blue Jays: RHP Andrew Muren (Giants) 11. Marlins: C BJ Lopez (D-backs) 12. Mariners: C Joe Odom (Braves) 13. Rangers: LHP Locke St. John (Tigers) 14. Rays: Francisco German (Tigers) 15. Angels: SS Riley Unroe (Rays) 16. Royals: RHP Daniel Duarte (Rangers) 17. Cardinals: OF Angel Moreno (Rays) 18. Twins: RHP Yancarlos Baez (Yankees) 19. Rockies: LHP Mitch Horacek (Orioles) 20. Yankees: OF Junior Soto (Indians) 21. D-backs: CF Jay Gonzalez (Orioles) 22. Red Sox: RHP Andrew Ferguson (Royals) 23. Nationals: 2B Jacob Wilson (Cardinals) 24. Astros: LHP Chris Nunn (Cubs) 25. Indians: LHP Robert Orlan (Nationals) 26. Dodgers: SS Angelo Mora (Orioles)
Round 2 27. Giants: SS Wander Franco (Royals) 28. Braves: SS Tyler Smith (Rangers) 29. A's: LHP Carlos Diaz (Marlins) 30. Pirates: C Rafelin Lorenzo (Rays) 31. Blue Jays: C Alberto Mineo (Cubs) 32. Marlins: C Sharif Othman (Yankees) 33. Mariners: C Tyler Baker (D-backs) 34. Angels: RHP Matt Ball (Rangers) 35. Cardinals: OF Jean Selmo (D-backs) 36. Twins: RHP Sandy Lugo (Reds) 37. D-backs: LHP Lane Ratliff (Mariners) 38. Red Sox: CF Luke Tendler (Rangers) 39. Nationals: RHP Kaleb Fleck (D-backs)
Round 3 40. A's: RHP Jaimito Lebron (Padres) 41. Blue Jays: SS Ivan Castillo (Indians) 42. Marlins: 1B Will Allen III (Tigers)
Round 4 43. Marins: RHP Brandon Barker (Orioles)
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2017 10:35:02 GMT -5
Luke Bard is Daniel's brother.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2017 10:51:15 GMT -5
Dombrowski holding presser to discuss his Winter Meetings acquisitions?
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Post by ramireja on Dec 14, 2017 12:18:38 GMT -5
The Yankees lost 4 players to the major league phase of the draft. They had a major 40-man roster crunch...recall they made several moves prior to the deadline to make room for the likes of Torres, Estrada, McKinney, etc.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2017 14:41:14 GMT -5
Should we be happy nobody from the Red Sox was chosen? Or should we feel like this was an indicator of how far the farm system has fallen?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 14, 2017 14:50:03 GMT -5
Looks like the Orioles changed their trolling target from the Red Sox to the Yankees.
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Post by Addam603 on Dec 14, 2017 15:00:32 GMT -5
Tendler is one year removed from hitting .297/.384/.524/.908 with 67 XBHs (23 HRs) in High A. Don’t know the context behind that, but those numbers are pretty good. Had more of a down year in AA in 2017, but maybe he’ll do better the second time around.
Ferguson has been injured most of the past two years, pitching only 40 innings over the last two years. In 2015, across AA and AAA, he pitched 104.2 innings with a 2.67 ERA (1.14 AA, 3.33 AAA). Career numbers of roughly 8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, again not bad numbers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2017 15:34:32 GMT -5
Tendler is one year removed from hitting .297/.384/.524/.908 with 67 XBHs (23 HRs) in High A. Don’t know the context behind that, but those numbers are pretty good. Had more of a down year in AA in 2017, but maybe he’ll do better the second time around. Ferguson has been injured most of the past two years, pitching only 40 innings over the last two years. In 2015, across AA and AAA, he pitched 104.2 innings with a 2.67 ERA (1.14 AA, 3.33 AAA). Career numbers of roughly 8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, again not bad numbers. Re: Tendler, he was 24 in High Desert, which was very hitter friendly. Every one of his home runs that season was pulled and most were between mid-right field and the line. mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=657035&position=DH&split=&year=2016&txtStartDate=&txtEndDate=#sprayTalked to someone re: Ferguson. Said low leverage long reliever at best.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2017 15:38:24 GMT -5
Tendler is one year removed from hitting .297/.384/.524/.908 with 67 XBHs (23 HRs) in High A. Don’t know the context behind that, but those numbers are pretty good. Had more of a down year in AA in 2017, but maybe he’ll do better the second time around. Ferguson has been injured most of the past two years, pitching only 40 innings over the last two years. In 2015, across AA and AAA, he pitched 104.2 innings with a 2.67 ERA (1.14 AA, 3.33 AAA). Career numbers of roughly 8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, again not bad numbers. High Desert was arguably the easiest hitting environment in the minor leagues. In 2009 there was a 33-18 game with Lake Elsinore. That 2016 squad slugged .460 as a team.
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