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Post by huskies15 on May 5, 2017 12:49:35 GMT -5
As prospect followers we often fall in love with the guys coming through the system. We read all the scouting reports and start dreaming of what they could be in a future Boston lineup. For all of us that have been reading this site and following the system the Xander Bogaerts progression as a prospect was about as exciting as it could get. He was the dream, a power hitting shortstop. Now a few years into his career he has gone through a few phases of his career, and yet remains a mystery. Knowing him as a prospect, I think more than a few of us have become frustrated with the type of player he has made himself into. Dave Cameron at FanGraphs wrote an article today about his 2017 and the overall player he has become. He too, remains confused about how we got to this point in Xander's (admittedly good) career. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/xander-bogaerts-is-a-very-weird-good-player/What does everyone else see happening with Bogaerts going forward? (Contract, performance, etc.)
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 5, 2017 13:46:20 GMT -5
thanks for posting the article. The fact that he played shortstop was one of the reasons he was my favorite prospect in years. He made the decision to be a contact guy, and I think that was born out of frustration he felt when things were not going his way. Very perplexing. I don't know that I would try and sign him to an extension right now. I have also wondered whether he has outgrown SS right now, and the daily grind of playing the position is wearing him out.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on May 5, 2017 14:39:09 GMT -5
Personally, I have loved watching him grow and develop. He's produced about as well as you can reasonably hope for (4-5 WAR each of the last two years) and is a well-rounded, top player at a young age. He'll hit his 15-20 homers this year, I'm not too worried about that. It shows how good of a hitter he is that people are saying he's struggling this season when he's been getting on-base at a .385 clip.
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Post by jimed14 on May 5, 2017 15:21:27 GMT -5
He is such a weird player. I think people complain about him too much, because he's still quite a good player if he had no power. He was exposed so badly in 2014, that teams will always throw him offspeed pitches off the plate and live with him hitting a million singles to RF rather than letting him turn on any inside pitches.
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2017 15:09:58 GMT -5
It's also really interesting to note that he's striking out at a 10.0% rate this year, which is another crazy jump. Maybe he's turning into Wade Boggs-lite. His BABIP looks almost sustainable to me. His ISO jumped 11 points just from hitting a double today. (at the time of this post)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 28, 2017 21:33:15 GMT -5
Baseball Savant now has a metric of average speed for baserunners (link below). What i find particularly fascinating is that Xander Bogaerts is the 7th fastest shortstops in the league; faster than names like Francisco Lindor, Addison Russel and Elvis Andrus. As a prospect Xander was consistently listed as having average or below average speed (often expect to be below average or worse once he filled out and switched positions) while the 3 players listed above were all consistently listed as having plus speed. So how did the scouts get it so wrong? Did they use eyeballs instead of stop watches (he didn't LOOK fast!)? Did they fail to evaluate Xander at top speed? Or did Xander simply get faster through hardwork? baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=I'm sure many who read this will want to dismiss it because these numbers aren't yet well known, but if you look at the charts you will see that it quite accurately reflects how fast we think of each player (Hamilton and Buxton are the fastest - Pujols and MOntero are the slowest) and the methodology accounts for when players aren't running at full speed. I've always accounted for Xander being such a good baserunner as his being a 'smart' baserunner. Perhaps he has been both smart and fast all along.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 28, 2017 23:22:28 GMT -5
Glad a Xander thread was kicked. I don't recall, but Xander's pitch recognition seems off this year. Yes, his batting average looks good - but he seems to have an inordinate number of really ugly swing and misses - lots of lunging at low and outside pitches, esp breaking balls. He also seems much less settled in the box - lots of movement right up to delivery of the pitch.
Anyone recall comparing 2017 Xander and his batting approach to his minor league days or even first half of last year?
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Post by telson13 on Jun 28, 2017 23:35:28 GMT -5
Baseball Savant now has a metric of average speed for baserunners (link below). What i find particularly fascinating is that Xander Bogaerts is the 7th fastest shortstops in the league; faster than names like Francisco Lindor, Addison Russel and Elvis Andrus. As a prospect Xander was consistently listed as having average or below average speed (often expect to be below average or worse once he filled out and switched positions) while the 3 players listed above were all consistently listed as having plus speed. So how did the scouts get it so wrong? Did they use eyeballs instead of stop watches (he didn't LOOK fast!)? Did they fail to evaluate Xander at top speed? Or did Xander simply get faster through hardwork? baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=I'm sure many who read this will want to dismiss it because these numbers aren't yet well known, but if you look at the charts you will see that it quite accurately reflects how fast we think of each player (Hamilton and Buxton are the fastest - Pujols and MOntero are the slowest) and the methodology accounts for when players aren't running at full speed. I've always accounted for Xander being such a good baserunner as his being a 'smart' baserunner. Perhaps he has been both smart and fast all along. I wrote about this on the draft thread re: Brannen. In simplest sense, there's "quickness" (explosiveness) and top speed. Quickness is fairly easy to eyeball; top speed is very hard to eyeball. Top speed is stride length x stride frequency (turnover). Stride length tends to be harder to judge with the eye; high-frequency runners "look" faster but often have lower top speed because they sacrifice length for turnover. Too long of a stride becomes inefficient (the ball of the foot should land about 0-7 degrees behind vertical for maximum efficiency, depending on phase of acceleration/maintaining velocity) and acts as a brake. Higher effort also "looks" faster, but the more fluid "lopers" often run faster, especially underway. At least, that's been my personal observation as a former sprinter (mostly 200-400) and sprint coach. To me, Bogaerts takes a little time to get up to speed, but he's fluid, tall (longer natural stride length), and efficient. He "looks" slower than he really is because he's not explosively quick, and he has an easy, smooth stride.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2017 9:44:36 GMT -5
Yeah, the whole "looking slower" thing is definitely a thing. That description reminds me a lot of Chatham. He's big for a SS - he's got 3 inches on Xander even - but takes long, efficient strides that give him more range than you'd think he has, and allow him to be efficient going first to third and the like.
With Bogaerts, it could also be a matter of how he physically matured. Let's not forget he was a big league regular at 21 (as opposed to, say, Chatham, who was getting drafted at 21). There's a lot more physical projection involved with an IFA, a very inexact science, than even with high school draftees.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 29, 2017 15:18:55 GMT -5
Baseball Savant now has a metric of average speed for baserunners (link below). What i find particularly fascinating is that Xander Bogaerts is the 7th fastest shortstops in the league; faster than names like Francisco Lindor, Addison Russel and Elvis Andrus. As a prospect Xander was consistently listed as having average or below average speed (often expect to be below average or worse once he filled out and switched positions) while the 3 players listed above were all consistently listed as having plus speed. So how did the scouts get it so wrong? Did they use eyeballs instead of stop watches (he didn't LOOK fast!)? Did they fail to evaluate Xander at top speed? Or did Xander simply get faster through hardwork? baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=I'm sure many who read this will want to dismiss it because these numbers aren't yet well known, but if you look at the charts you will see that it quite accurately reflects how fast we think of each player (Hamilton and Buxton are the fastest - Pujols and MOntero are the slowest) and the methodology accounts for when players aren't running at full speed. I've always accounted for Xander being such a good baserunner as his being a 'smart' baserunner. Perhaps he has been both smart and fast all along. I think it's partly that Xander actually got faster. Look at pictures of him in 2013 compared to now. He's reshaped his body. It's a credit to him. IMO, athletes who grow up in relative isolation often come undertrained. I'd wager that at signing, Xander didn't have nearly the same background of strength & conditioning/nutrition that your typical HS draftee does. He just caught up in the bigs.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 12, 2017 22:42:49 GMT -5
Do we really think bogey can stay at short going forward? I used to think yes, but now I am not so sure.
Something to consider going forward.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2017 6:38:49 GMT -5
Do we really think bogey can stay at short going forward? I used to think yes, but now I am not so sure. Something to consider going forward. He's above average at SS and should remain that way until past free agency. There's nothing to think about until they're considering extending him.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jul 13, 2017 8:28:41 GMT -5
Do we really think bogey can stay at short going forward? I used to think yes, but now I am not so sure. Something to consider going forward. To me he looks average with the ability to make the occasional spectacular play while being a little slow turning two. That being said without referencing his metrics which on fangraphs peg him as a sure handed/less range guy. Personally id like to see him moved off short in a couple years if they end up extending/signing him. I am not a member of Redsox brass, and they never do what I think they should do and probably rightfully so. The power is real, but he doesnt sell out for it, but he also misses low breaking pitches and only rarely turns and burns like he used to. Weird player, but definitely in the upper class of the bigs. It might be just me, or maybe Xanders size but to anyone else does it look like hes swinging a small bat? Like a 33-30? Anyone have any info on the lumber?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
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Post by nomar on Jul 13, 2017 8:49:32 GMT -5
He's a lot less valuable at 3B. He has raw power because of his bat speed, but he's effectively a slap hitter. Unless he starts to drive the ball harder and more consistently, I would rather trade him before he has to move than move him to 3B.
I don't anticipate him having to move off SS anytime soon though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2017 9:28:17 GMT -5
I think it was Kiley McDaniel (although it might've been Jason Parks) who made the point that, in the minors, we see a shortstop and if they're not spectacular, they get hit with the "might have to move off the position" label. I think that might be a little bit of what's happening with Bogaerts these days (earlier in his career, it was based in part on projections that his body would potentially fill out too much). But there are shortstops in MLB who aren't defensive wizards at short who are just fine to play at the position. Bogaerts is never going to be a gold glove SS, but he's fine there. If he turns into late-stage Nomar, then we'll talk, but he doesn't have to be Andrelton Simmons to have value as a shortstop.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
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Post by jimoh on Jul 13, 2017 9:55:50 GMT -5
Baseball Savant now has a metric of average speed for baserunners (link below). What i find particularly fascinating is that Xander Bogaerts is the 7th fastest shortstops in the league; faster than names like Francisco Lindor, Addison Russel and Elvis Andrus. As a prospect Xander was consistently listed as having average or below average speed (often expect to be below average or worse once he filled out and switched positions) while the 3 players listed above were all consistently listed as having plus speed. So how did the scouts get it so wrong? Did they use eyeballs instead of stop watches (he didn't LOOK fast!)? Did they fail to evaluate Xander at top speed? Or did Xander simply get faster through hardwork? baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=&team=I'm sure many who read this will want to dismiss it because these numbers aren't yet well known, but if you look at the charts you will see that it quite accurately reflects how fast we think of each player (Hamilton and Buxton are the fastest - Pujols and MOntero are the slowest) and the methodology accounts for when players aren't running at full speed. I've always accounted for Xander being such a good baserunner as his being a 'smart' baserunner. Perhaps he has been both smart and fast all along. I think it's partly that Xander actually got faster. Look at pictures of him in 2013 compared to now. He's reshaped his body. It's a credit to him. IMO, athletes who grow up in relative isolation often come undertrained. I'd wager that at signing, Xander didn't have nearly the same background of strength & conditioning/nutrition that your typical HS draftee does. He just caught up in the bigs. That's not really "average speed" is it? It's “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” It's top speed. A guy who's a little slower to hit full speed because he's bigger and not explosive, but runs well when he hits full stride, will score better on this measurement than on something that measures how fast he can run 90 feet, right? I imagine many of the quick guys clustered right behind him can get to full speed faster than he. He does run well, and better than before, but "fastest one-second window" might not be the best way to measure usable speed in baseball. Just looked it up and ft/sec = 0.681818 mph. So the fastest SS is only hitting 19.9 mph, Xander 19.09091 mph. Hamilton and Buxton are 20.52273mph. 20 mph is the average speed (average speed throughout the race) of a world-class 400 meters of 44.7 seconds 19 mph is the average speed of a good 400 meters of 47 seconds Usain Bolt's top speed (not average but top) is 27.8 mph
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Post by m1keyboots on Jul 13, 2017 11:01:24 GMT -5
Xander has improved his too sprint speed 4 years in a row. Mookie has lost a couple tenths and Benintendi is the fastest redsox.
That's all just noise and were talking about what amounts to be 1 mph over 3 years for Xander but he for sure has gotten faster.
Looking at how fast was 2 years ago (fastest catcher in baseball with any playing time) is kinda sad
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